2020 Presidential Election Electoral College Result

  • Thread starter Dotini
  • 15 comments
  • 1,351 views

Who Will Win the Electoral College Vote, and by How Much?

  • Biden by less that 5%

    Votes: 8 27.6%

  • Biden by more than 5%

    Votes: 11 37.9%

  • Trump by less than 5%

    Votes: 6 20.7%

  • Trump by more than 5%

    Votes: 4 13.8%
  • Total voters
    29
  • Poll closed .
Dotini

Dotini

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CR80_Shifty
No need to debate the merits or demerits of the Electoral college here. It is what we have (for better or worse) in this election cycle.

However, polls and other analyses can contribute to a vigorous discussion of the likely outcome.

According to Drudge Report headlines, Biden is currently 76% favored by gamblers to win the popular vote. What that really means in terms of electoral college results, I do not know.
 
Being it's a winner takes all sceniaro a slight win in popular can result in a massive win or loss in electoral (how Fair is that!)

Biden is surely favourite as he leads nearly all the swing states and is within the margin of error at Texas.

Simply winning Texas would mean he can lose Florida (which he is also leading) and more and still win.
 
The electoral college thing seems a little rigged, why does one party have to win nearly 60% of the popular vote, just to have a good chance of winning the electoral college? The whole thing seems silly.

13D05036-347A-43AE-B1CB-1A107C12F403.jpeg
 
Discussion of the Electoral College system is unfortunately off-topic in this thread. It is the system we have for now, fair or not.

Principal questions to be addressed are the reliability of polls and the mood and will of the electorate. In the 2016 election, polls indicated a Clinton win, yet she lost in an Electoral College landslide. I'm not sure that has ever been successfully understood and explained, and how the situation today is fundamentally different.
 
Dotini
Discussion of the Electoral College system is unfortunately off-topic in this thread.
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The words "Electoral College" are in the thread title for Pete's sake.

Dotini
In the 2016 election, polls indicated a Clinton win, yet she lost in an Electoral College landslide. I'm not sure that has ever been successfully understood and explained, and how the situation today is fundamentally different.
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None of this can be addressed without violating the "off-topic" boundaries you just established in the previous paragraph.
 
huskeR32
The words "Electoral College" are in the thread title for Pete's sake.



None of this can be addressed without violating the "off-topic" boundaries you just established in the previous paragraph.
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If you wish to discuss the Electoral College in terms of its origin, merit and future prospects, there is not much more I can do to stop you.
However, this particular thread was created to run a poll which expires in fewer than 50 days. The Electoral College issue per se will persist far beyond the expiry of this thread. Polls and voter motivations are the most fit subjects of discussion in this thread, IMHO. But go ahead and suit yourself as you see fit.
 
The poll in this thread is closing shortly. If you want to predict the winner and margin, now is the time.
 
TB
There's me not looking at dates. :dunce:
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And I'm not the world's greatest mathematician. When drinking, I do better with supervision. :dunce:
I'm glad there's somebody out there who gives a damn.
 
The final tally is 306 to 232, greater than a 5% margin and in US political terms, a landslide.
 
Dotini
a landslide.
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That's all well and good, but it's the exact same margin Trump won by in 2016 so it's not saying much. Arguably, this 5% notion - even 10% - as being a landslide is silly. This is a typical balance of votes.
 
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Keef
That's all well and good, but it's the exact same margin Trump won by in 2016 so it's not saying much. Arguably, this 5% notion - even 10% - as being a landslide is silly. This is a typical balance of votes.
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The EC is not a good measure of what constitutes a landslide. It is very non-linear by its nature. Small changes in a few votes here or there make big swings in EC outcomes. The popular vote is a better measure of what a landslide looks like.
 
Danoff
The EC is not a good measure of what constitutes a landslide. It is very non-linear by its nature. Small changes in a few votes here or there make big swings in EC outcomes. The popular vote is a better measure of what a landslide looks like.
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In that case there is no US definition of "landslide". And given the considerable power that Trump voters still have, and the fact that they gained seats in the House, I would say Biden's victory is absolutely not a landslide by any measure.
 
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Keef
In that case there is no US definition of "landslide"
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Electoral College Landslide - Red Wins

Screenshot_20210108-002156_Wikipedia.jpg


Popular Vote Landslide - Blue Wins

Screenshot_20210108-002225_Wikipedia.jpg


Obviously Reagan/Mondale was a popular vote landslide too (16m votes) but you get my point. US landslides are strange creatures.
 
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