2022 US Mid-Term Elections Thread

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ryzno

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A place to discuss the 2022 US Mid-Term Elections.
This is not a thread for political bashing.
 

Dotini

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Seattle recently had a primary election for mayor and prosecutor. It seems the bloom is off the rose for BLM, homeless encampments and defund the police. We've lost 270 police officers and now have significant rise in the murder rate. It seems voters are changing their minds here.
 

TB

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We've lost 270 police officers and now have significant rise in the murder rate.
Anyone that is surprised or didn't see that coming is a fool.
 

Keef

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Ohio governor is an important race. Currently, of the Great Lakes states, only Ohio and Indiana have Republican governors. I'm not entirely sure how much that matters - as of late, Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit, and other big cities in the area have suffered greater issues than cities in Ohio or Indiana - but it might be something worth changing. Mike DeWine has been relatively inconsequential for most of his tenure and has been a mixed bag since Covid, initially on the forefront of Covid response but ultimately giving in to Republican pressure. And this time he actually has a Republican challenger which goes to show how cutthroat that party is these days.

On the Democratic side, Dayton mayor Nan Whaley and Cincy mayor John Cranley have both entered the ring. Nan Whaley has been the favorite but has already been committed for several months, while Cranley only entered the ring a few days ago. Cincy is a much bigger city than Dayton, a much bigger market, and like all big cities has more going for it in general, so I think pointing out his specific contributions is not as meaningful as a mayor like Nan who really does have direct input on a lot of things going on in Dayton and the area. Plus, Dayton has a lot further to go in terms of rejuvenation than Cincy does and a lot less capital to do it with.

Rob Portman, Ohio's lone Republican Senator, has decided to retire at the end of his term in 2022. The race is wide open. There are four Democrats running of which Tim Ryan is the clear leader. Problem: Tim Ryan is already a Representative for Ohio's 13th district and only won his election 52-44 in 2020. The good news is that there are eleven Republicans on the ballot. I swear these people are insatiable. The leader of them is Probably Josh Mandel, somebody who has pull with military veterans but already lost a Senate election against Sherrod Brown 51-45 in 2012. But because primary election dates haven't actually be published yet we won't know who are the real front runners. I'm going to assume Tim Ryan vs. Josh Mandel and of those two I honestly believe Tim Ryan has the bigger name and more political clout and resources. My worry is that Ohio's 13th could give up a blue seat in the House.
 
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Mike DeWine has been relatively inconsequential for most of his tenure and has been a mixed bag since Covid, initially on the forefront of Covid response but ultimately giving in to Republican pressure.
Isn't he the guy who was nearly booed off the stage by Trumpers because of his audacious suggestion that they expand their pro-Trump attire to include masks?
 
24,845
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TexRex72
Reading an NPR article on this guy, I struggle to see why Senate Republicans don't like this guy. He's an abusive piece of 🤬, but he backs the same lies they've been parroting since the election. And he's Black, so scapegoat!
He's a firebrand, sure. Like the 2020 RNC, his platform is just Trump. But he's also been dragging along legal troubles and concerns about mental illness.

Of course, Walker has been vocal with unsubstantiated allegations of widespread voter fraud that he makes in service to his bronzer daddy, but his wife is being investigated over concerns that she voted illegally in the 2020 election in Georgia as a resident of Texas.

And Walker is attempting to unseat Raphael Warnock, who has an actual platform and is a much stronger candidate, even as incumbent. This places more emphasis on GOP efforts to limit access to polls where voters are more likely to choose Warnock, as well as efforts to marginalize votes through partisan means after election day as enabled by new election law in the state.
 

ryzno

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Reading an NPR article on this guy, I struggle to see why Senate Republicans don't like this guy. He's an abusive piece of 🤬, but he backs the same lies they've been parroting since the election. And he's Black, so scapegoat!
His wife is also under investigation for voter fraud, she allegedly voted in Georgia(mail in if I'm correct) while still living in Texas.
 

Danoff

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His wife is also under investigation for voter fraud, she allegedly voted in Georgia(mail in if I'm correct) while still living in Texas.
Weird that someone caught this. I was under the impression that mail-in voting was a sure fire way to get away with fraud. It's almost like there are checks. Definitely she voted for Biden though, if it was fraudulent, it's for Biden. [/s]


Edit:

Reading more about her case. It's actually pretty complicated, not a slam dunk on whether it was a fraudulent vote. Certainly questionable, but it's requiring a lot of in-depth investigation into what her "true" residence really is. Not an easy call to make without all the information.
 
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Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, may be subject to a recall and replaced with someone from a field of 46 candidates.

This whole process is a disaster and in desperate need of reform. Newsom could theoretically be ousted in a 51-49 bare majority of voters (thus implying 49% of the vote going to Newsom) and replaced by a candidate receiving just 2-5% of the vote. And like Brexit, the underdog position (if participation was 100%) gets a significant boost because of the enthusiasm/turnout gap - there really ought to be some type of minimum participation threshold for these kind of votes. It's a breathtakingly poorly conceived bit of direct democracy - kind of par for the course for California really.
 

Dotini

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This whole process is a disaster and in desperate need of reform. Newsom could theoretically be ousted in a 51-49 bare majority of voters (thus implying 49% of the vote going to Newsom) and replaced by a candidate receiving just 2-5% of the vote. And like Brexit, the underdog position (if participation was 100%) gets a significant boost because of the enthusiasm/turnout gap - there really ought to be some type of minimum participation threshold for these kind of votes. It's a breathtakingly poorly conceived bit of direct democracy - kind of par for the course for California really.
Bicameral representative democracy is possibly the worst possible government for large (continental) populations - except for all the others.
 
3,082
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Not sure whether this is news or not, but:
Given her censure by the Arizona Democratic Party and polls coming out that show 85-90% of Arizona Democrats disapproving of Sinema's obstruction, something tells me that she doesn't care at all about her image, because she's probably not going to run for Senate again. I have a strong feeling that she will retire after her term ends in 2025 and become a corporate lobbyist. The sheer amount of money she's taken from business groups, especially healthcare-related, for opposing the $3.5T reconciliation is absolutely mind boggling, I think it's totaled to over $700,000 now. If Sinema cared about re-election, then she'd definitely budge on the reconciliation bill as opposed to being so staunchly against it, because her current approach is political suicide. Either the seat gets handed to a more progressive Democrat, or another Republican in 2025, and frankly I think a Republican might take it.

Sinema is singlehandedly hurting the Democratic party more than any Republican ever could.
 
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Danoff

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Given her censure by the Arizona Democratic Party and polls coming out that show 85-90% of Arizona Democrats disapproving of Sinema's obstruction, something tells me that she doesn't care at all about her image, because she's probably not going to run for Senate again. I have a strong feeling that she will retire after her term ends in 2025 and become a corporate lobbyist. The sheer amount of money she's taken from business groups, especially healthcare-related, for opposing the $3.5T reconciliation is absolutely mind boggling, I think it's totaled to over $700,000 now. If Sinema cared about re-election, then she'd definitely budge on the reconciliation bill as opposed to being so staunchly against it, because her current approach is political suicide. Either the seat gets handed to a more progressive Democrat, or another Republican in 2025, and frankly I think a Republican might take it.

Sinema is singlehandedly hurting the Democratic party more than any Republican ever could.
She and Manchin are exactly what that republicans need right now. The upshot of this though is that out of 50 democrats in the Senate, what are the chances that you can't find one or two that will pull this kind of stunt?

The US is pulling up a little short of what it needs in government to really fix the problems introduced recently. That's disconcerting. One can only hope that the midterms help rather than hurt.
 
3,121
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She and Manchin are exactly what that republicans need right now. The upshot of this though is that out of 50 democrats in the Senate, what are the chances that you can't find one or two that will pull this kind of stunt?

The US is pulling up a little short of what it needs in government to really fix the problems introduced recently. That's disconcerting. One can only hope that the midterms help rather than hurt.
The sad thing is that you can't find any Republican member of Congress right now that is willing to do the same thing to the Republican Party, or should I say the Party Of Trump because that's what it genuinely is right now. Any Republican that shows any intentions of straying away towards something the Democrats want to do is attacked by the Trumpkins and their political career is as good as done. There's a Trumpkin being prepared to run against them in their next election.

The word courage does not exist in today's Republican party. It's been replaced by another word and that is cowardice.
 
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I was thinking about something this morning

In the 2014 Midterm elections, the Republican party absolutely crushed it. They gained control of the Senate and took their largest majority in the House in decades. When Trump ran for President in 2016, he won...but not by the same sort of convincing, slam dunk margin (the Republicans won the 2014 house race by a 5.7% margin, whereas Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1% - and that's after 8 years of a Democratic administration!). From 2016 onwards, the Republicans in the house lost what had been their biggest majority since 1928, then lost the Presidency, then lost the Senate. It's like the GOP is collectively deluding themselves into believing Trump is good for the party. On a federal level, what has he accomplished for the GOP? Most his (non-mega-disastrous) policy positions/accomplishments and bench nominations were totally boiler-plate GOP stuff that could have been accomplished by any conservative - and probably far more effectively as well. I feel like Trumpism is purely a self-gratifying (and ultimately doomed) phenomenon within the most grief-stricken, angry, and frankly dumb sections of the Republican party - and they are pushing everyone else out. How long can people like Mitt Romney or the Bushes even claim to be part of the same party? The distance is becoming huge.

I expect Trumpist candidates to continue doing well in state and local elections though, which is troubling.
 

Dotini

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A major traditional milestone in the race to the 2022 mid-term elections has occurred.
Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia’s closely watched governor’s race, dealing a blow to President Joe Biden and Democrats’ hopes to keep control of Congress in next year’s elections.

 
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I kind of had a feeling that McAuliffe would ultimately lose his re-election, but I am surprised by how close the NJ gubernatorial (my own state) race is. Regardless, this is a pretty bad sign for the Democratic party. Phil Murphy prides himself on being one of the nation's most progressive governors- legalizing marijuana, signing $15 minimum wage into law, first state to teach LGBTQ history in school curriculum, restoring teacher's pensions and increasing public school funding, is very pro union, and endorsed by Bernie Sanders. Keep in mind, he maintained a relatively balanced budget despite his progressive pursuits. As a New Jerseyan, I have a generally high opinion of Gov. Murphy, and so did a lot of the state... according to polls. The most conservative estimate had Murphy up by four points, while many polls had him up 10-12 points. It seemed clear that Murphy would win, his opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, a so-called moderate Republican who tries to distance himself from Trump, despite attending a Stop the Steal Rally, and opposed to legalized marijuana and "critical race theory" taught in schools, has been up, almost the entire time. With 90 of the vote counted, Murphy is only up by less than a point, leaving the race too close to call.
 

Blitz24

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I kind of had a feeling that McAuliffe would ultimately lose his re-election, but I am surprised by how close the NJ gubernatorial (my own state) race is. Regardless, this is a pretty bad sign for the Democratic party. Phil Murphy prides himself on being one of the nation's most progressive governors- legalizing marijuana, signing $15 minimum wage into law, first state to teach LGBTQ history in school curriculum, restoring teacher's pensions and increasing public school funding, is very pro union, and endorsed by Bernie Sanders. Keep in mind, he maintained a relatively balanced budget despite his progressive pursuits. As a New Jerseyan, I have a generally high opinion of Gov. Murphy, and so did a lot of the state... according to polls. The most conservative estimate had Murphy up by four points, while many polls had him up 10-12 points. It seemed clear that Murphy would win, his opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, a so-called moderate Republican who tries to distance himself from Trump, despite attending a Stop the Steal Rally, and opposed to legalized marijuana and "critical race theory" taught in schools, has been up, almost the entire time. With 90 of the vote counted, Murphy is only up by less than a point, leaving the race too close to call.
New Jersey typically flip flops when it comes to governors. A lot of people do not hold Murphy with high esteem.
 

Keef

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I finally got my Ohio absentee ballot in the mail after three weeks of waiting. Odd - I might drop it off at the County building again to make sure it gets there on time.

Anyways, I was filling out all these unopposed candidates but then I got to the list of US Senators from Ohio where I found three names. I only recognized one of them - Tim Ryan, a current Representative from Ohio - so I figured I'd do my research. I hit the websites, hit youtube, hit Wikipedia, and oddly enough on Wikipedia I couldn't find the Democratic section of the article on the 2022 Ohio primaries.

I scanned and scrolled, I saw the list of Republican names and even longer lists of endorsements and polling data but no Democratic section. What on earth is going on here? And then I realized, ahhh, somebody forgot to put the headings in alphabetic order! I double checked all the subsections' content and yep, sure enough, all the lists were organized alphabetically as expected. So I logged into Wiki and did my duty.

Now the "Democratic primary" heading and content sits above the "Republican primary" heading and content as it should. Feels good to solve the world's problems one piece at a time.

Edit: After browsing a different article it appears that the standard for organization is incumbency. Apparently this lack of alphabetical organization is a bigger problem than I thought lmao. I'd better get busy. Who wants to help? @Danoff @TexRex @Eunos_Cosmo Let's change [the political party that] the world [views first on Wikipedia]! :lol:
 
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Keef

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The process here has been miserable. Fortunately, we've got some really good and notable candidates for governor this year from the Democratic party. Both the mayors of Dayton and Cincinnati are running and we'd be happy with either of them. Also, despite what will likely happen with our House representation, senator Rob Portman isn't running again and one Democrat running to replace him has already been a House rep for us and is a very well known name, Tim Ryan. He's very likely to win the Democratic race.

On the Republican side, honestly the only person I've ever heard of is Josh Mandel. He lost in the 2018 US Senate election to focus on his wife's health issues. I assume she's doing better because they got divorced in spring 2020, not long after Mandel proved to be a maniac Trumpist. There are numerous runners on the Republican ticket so I assume they're going to sabotage themselves but Mandel is most likely to win the ticket.

I think there is a good chance that Tim Ryan wins this seat for the Dems because he's much more experienced and agreeable than Mandel who comes off as a young, naive, overconfident idiot. If Tim Ryan wins that would make both senators from Ohio blue which is fine with me. Potentially two Democratic senators and a Democratic governor? It's high time we get all this crazy out of Ohio politics and prove that this state is much more moderate than people realize.

@TexRex @McLaren

 
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Keef

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Josh Mandel's crazy ass has successfully been eliminated from contention after Ohio's primary results. No R candidate won even 1/3 of the vote while the Ds chose Tim Ryan at nearly 70% which was expected. The good news is that Tim Ryan is a reasonable dude while JD Vance is basically a nobody and seems like an asshole. Then again, Republicans love nobody assholes.

Mike DeWine won less than half the vote to remain on the R's governor ticket, while Dayton's former mayor Nan Whaley won 65% of the D vote.

We'll try our best to help swing the balance in the Senate and cement Democratic governorship in the Midwest.
 

Joey D

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Not content with committing voter fraud, now Michigan Republicans are forging signatures to get candidates on the ballot:

So of the seven candidates, three filed petitions with forged signatures. Only one, a former captain of the Michigan State Police, withdrew from the race over it.
 

UKMikey

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