2024 US Presidential Election Thread

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Election officially called by the NY Times for Trump.

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia all flipped. Michigan is expected to go to Trump as well but hasn't been called. I'm not sure what the Democrats have done differently but it feels like they were screwed back in June.
 
The Democrats need to fire all their strategists and start from scratch. They didn't learn from 2016 and I have little hope they'll learn now.

  • No real primary
  • Biden holding on as long as possible
  • Harris abandoning progressive policies she campaigned on in 2019 and shifting right of Biden
  • Touting an endorsement from Cheney that probably cost more votes than it earned
  • Refusing to break from Israel

Democrats think that shifting to the center earns them votes without costing them anything.

But when you court the pro-fracking vote, you lose the anti-fracking vote. When you court the anti-immigration vote, you lose the immigrant vote. When you try to be a candidate for every voter, people don't know where you stand.

In 2020, Biden won Dearborn, Michigan with 74% of the vote.

Harris currently has 27.8%. Stein has 22%.

Trump did not earn significantly more votes in Michigan than he did in 2020. But Harris earned significantly less than Biden did.

That trend seems to hold for the whole country. Trump didn't overperform. He's not more popular than before. He didn't win over tons of people who voted for Biden. Harris just lost her base.

xBiden/HarrisTrump
202081,283,50174,223,975
2024 (5am ET)65,999,05070,911,100

I'm not saying this was a guaranteed win for Harris if she chose another strategy. I'm just saying, this doesn't work. Shifting to the center doesn't work. It doesn't pull any voters from the right, it reads as noncommittal or fake for those with actual centrist views, and it kills turnout for everyone left of center, which is a lot of people.
 
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I don't think people voted for Trump because they thought Harris wasn't progressive enough and considering Trump will soon throw the Ukraine under the bus I also don't think Israel / Palestine played a significant role either.

It's inflation. And even though it's a problem in many parts of the world right now and also a problem Trump will most likely make worse the people blame Biden and thereby also Harris for it.

Many problems disappear when you suddenly can't afford lunch for your kids anymore or make the next payment for your house.

In a way people voted with their wallets. Tbh I'm not even sure Harris was the solution, but I'm sure Trump is the problem.
 
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Thankfully we'll only have four years of this oafish, blabbering baboon. Unfortunately, it'll feel like a century, and he'll undo at least a few more than that.

My media blackout resumes; thusly, my sanity.
 
Thankfully we'll only have four years of this oafish, blabbering baboon. Unfortunately, it'll feel like a century, and he'll undo at least a few more than that.

My media blackout resumes; thusly, my sanity.

He controls the whole government now plus the federal courts - you think that pesky 2 term rule is going to last?
 
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Thankfully we'll only have four years of this oafish, blabbering baboon. Unfortunately, it'll feel like a century, and he'll undo at least a few more than that.

My media blackout resumes; thusly, my sanity.

I fear Musk the most.... and long term what he will be doing with the supreme court. And I hope it's really only 4 years..
 
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He controls the whole government now plus the federal courts - you think that pesky 2 term rule is going to last?

Somewhere between the diapers, senility, and arteriosclerosis, I doubt he'll make it that long.

Since this is Trumpanomics: Pick any four.
 
Guess we are going to find out how strong the constitutional and legal barriers against dictatorships are.
With a cult, control of a senate that already twice abdicated its duty in censuring the man, and a loaded SCOTUS that already said anything he does in office is fine, they may as well be a plastic A-fold "Keep Out" sign.

Currently the only check or balance here is that SCOTUS ruling allowing Biden to hurl a Tomahawk right up South Ocean Boulevard to combat domestic terrorism.
 
I don't think people voted for Trump because they thought Harris wasn't progressive enough and considering Trump will soon throw the Ukraine under the bus I also don't think Israel / Palestine played a significant role either.

It's inflation. And even though it's a problem in many parts of the world right now and also a problem Trump will most likely make worse the people blame Biden and thereby also Harris for it.

Many problems disappear when you suddenly can't afford lunch for your kids anymore or make the next payment for your house.

In a way people voted with their wallets. Tbh I'm not even sure Harris was the solution, but I'm sure Trump is the problem.
People didn't vote for Trump because Harris wasn't progressive enough. But a lot of people stayed home.

There is a huge problem in this country of people thinking both parties are the same. Obviously a lot of people here are frustrated with that sentiment.

The question, then, is why, why, the Harris campaign decided the best strategy was to swing to the right? Her whole appeal is that she's not Trump! So how does an endorsement from Cheney and other republicans convince people that she's not like the republicans? How does her saying she would put Republicans in her cabinet convince people that the parties are meaningfully different and that their vote matters?

Inflation was a factor, sure. But this was not just a problem of Harris being unable to distance herself from Biden. She attempted to distance herself from Biden in the wrong direction. Fracking, border control, wanting "the most lethal" military. None of those things gave voters a reason to go to the polls.

Inflation hurt people's ability to get medical care, so why did Harris drop Biden's 2020 policy of adding a public option to the ACA?

Trump's 2020 voters just voted for him again this time. Not much seems to have changed, there.

Fifteen million Biden voters stayed home.

I don't think that can be attributed entirely to inflation.
 
I'm kind of relieved that Tariff Trump won, just because I hope it makes the Trumpers calm down and finally be contented with their comeback-story 2nd term instead of behaving with a stick up their asses about literally everything. Unfortunately, that now also means that stick gets passed to the demonrats. I still think that people who are convinced he's going to be dictator for life are just as nuts as the capitol rioters-- maybe a couple notches below the buffalo shaman guy but still kooky nonetheless. The democrats would have been in a better position today if they hadn't won with Biden. Because...
Losing all government machinery (and not just the Presidency) to a guy who should be in prison is certainly a new low.
... this is really the most embarrassing thing ever. The fact that they can't even have someone normal who can run is astonishing. I just hope that they purge all the ultra-left and other weirdos back to the fringes. Otherwise, the democrats need their own Trump figure-- that is, someone from the outside to come in a break up the establishment.
I'm not saying this was a guaranteed win for Harris if she chose another strategy. I'm just saying, this doesn't work. Shifting to the center doesn't work. It doesn't pull any voters from the right, it reads as noncommittal or fake for those with actual centrist views, and it kills turnout for everyone left of center, which is a lot of people.
It's not about strategy-- it's about who she is. Nobody knows. It's not a shift to the center, it's putting up a totally artificial person with the same fake speeches delivered verbatim at each stop, the same condescending demeanor, the inability to have a genuine conversation or extended interview-- it's the puppetry of the democratic national committee strung into a soulless, synthetic figurehead. This kind of approach doesn't work. Americans would rather have a visible dictator (that they can either relate to or shoot, lol) than a shadow oligarchy. Everyone with a brain can see that Biden is incompetent, so it means that everything is being managed and delegated to his support, and the people haven't exactly liked how it's been going so they weren't keen to vote for more of the same. The primaries are supposed to help people learn and trust their candidate. This is what happens when you skip that, I guess, in addition to the other points you made. :cheers:
 
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Thankfully we'll only have four years of this oafish, blabbering baboon. Unfortunately, it'll feel like a century, and he'll undo at least a few more than that.

My media blackout resumes; thusly, my sanity.
The legacy of what Trump is likely to do to the US and the world is going to last a lot more than four years.
He controls the whole government now plus the federal courts - you think that pesky 2 term rule is going to last?
I expect that to be the first thing he tries to change. Fortunately he's old enough that it's unlikely he'll be able to take full advantage of it even if he scraps term limits entirely. All it will do is open the door wide for the next wannabe dictator who gets in but doesn't necessarily have the broad support to make sweeping constitutional change.
Guess we are going to find out how strong the constitutional and legal barriers against dictatorships are.
Not that strong. At lot of the US system is based on people doing the right and honourable thing. The time when politicians would resign because they were caught being involved in some minor burglary is long gone.
The question, then, is why, why, the Harris campaign decided the best strategy was to swing to the right? Her whole appeal is that she's not Trump!
Because her appeal was that she was not Trump. With that as the primary draw card, the point is then to try and make her palatable to as many people as possible. Presumably they thought that leftists would vote for her no matter what, and so the goal was to make her into something that moderate righties could vote for if they had misgivings about Trump. So shift to the right.

As if America drifting further and further to the right isn't how we ended up in this problem in the first place.

Frankly, I think they got lucky once winning with Biden based on "he's not Trump". They tried it again, and it didn't work because Trump has gotten better at Trumping, people's memories of his terrible presidency are further away and fuzzier, and Harris is the opposite of being an old white dude. She has few redeeming qualities of her own, and his flaws are less obvious when he hasn't been president for four years.
 
DK
Welp, time to see how fast European car plants can be repurposed for military equipment.
Not as urgent now as it was yesterday. First, car manufacturers can return to prioritizing the petrol cars most European car buyers want. The manufacturers will find it easier to withstand institutional pressure with the green agenda now being compromised by Trump’s lack of support to the Paris Agreement. Second, Trump will pursue diplomatic solutions in conflict zones. That would never happen under Biden or Harris. Those guys would just fuel Eurasian warfare until the entire continent would get dragged in for real.
 
Not as urgent now as it was yesterday. First, car manufacturers can return to prioritizing the petrol cars most European car buyers want. The manufacturers will find it easier to withstand institutional pressure with the green agenda now being compromised by Trump’s lack of support to the Paris Agreement. Second, Trump will pursue diplomatic solutions in conflict zones. That would never happen under Biden or Harris. Those guys would just fuel Eurasian warfare until the entire continent would get dragged in for real.
I'm not sure there is any positive solution to chase after in regards to Russia/Ukraine. After all, Russia attempted to disrupt our elections with fake bomb threats last night to ensure a Trump victory because they believe he will give them more favorable terms in a peace deal that ends a war started by Russia due to ridiculous reasons. As far as for Israel/Palestine/Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran? That one might cause Iran's theocracy to fall apart if Trump plays his cards in a certain way.
 
Presumably they thought that leftists would vote for her no matter what,
Agreed, despite the fact that I don't think it's ever been true.

Conservatives vote pretty consistently no matter the candidate.

People on the left often stay home if the candidate doesn't appeal to them.

The Democratic strategy has yet to really take this to heart.
 
That reads like a phone number.
Conspiring against Trump already? 😵
I live in the UK
Although if that was an actual anti-Trump hotline I’d highly recommend anyone who gives even the slightest rat’s arse about democracy to check it out
 
I couldn't believe Trump visited that barbershop in one of my old neighbourhoods.
Surprisingly, I was seeing, on tv, people say, "Kamala didn't do anything when she was in the White House" and she's talking too much Kumbaya with no real plans. Seriously. Some of this was even coming from relatives here in Australia. Apologising to me and saying they're leaning towards Trump this time.
I can't see how a dude that was bad with his own business, is giving those hope he'll fix everything with fist shafts.


Your last question. I believe in getting at the local officials. If there are more representatives like AOC that will fight locally and have locals back them, that holds weight for day to day concerns to be addressed and rectified.

Biden stepping down and Kamala having a short time to make a difference was a good move. It really showed many people missed Kamala's point of everyone from the people to the government, working together to make change.
I think you've hit the nail on the head.
The "Cost of living crisis" is ultimately the biggest factor in the US, UK, Australia, and most EU elections since Covid.
The whole Western world is poorer because of having to pay for Covid in particular (which has effectively cost the same as a small war) AND having to pay for the war in Ukraine, and there are other country specific factors which have added to this.
The cost has ended up falling on "working class" mostly in higher prices, higher taxes, salaries that couldn't keep pace with that inflation (whether rightly or wrongly this is what has happened in reality).
People are voting out governments around the world hoping that this will make themselves less poorer (US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, and so on). However, none of these new governments can magic away the cost of Covid and Ukraine (and Trump can't either for Covid [he might cut off Ukraine funding though which would be a disaster for everyone] but people haven't realised that yet and have voted in the hope that he can).

There's a lot of (in effect) people wanting someone else to pay for these things other than them (rightly or wrongly).

It hasn't helped either that no-one talks about Covid anymore (it's almost a taboo subject here now in the UK - I work in an office of 100 people and its NEVER mentioned) - which means it's even less likely that people will connect the fact that their poorer with Covid.

All governments can do is redistribute those costs in a different way.

The UK budget last week has started that process, but there is more to come.

The US election has its own specific factors in play, but the biggest factor is the same in ALL of these elections. See that graphic from CNN posted above.

People are poorer and are blaming those in charge (whether that is correct or not is a separate conversation, but in respect of why Harris is lost, that's clear enough from all the polling).

Last thought, I don't know why the result has surprised so many people on here. I thought it was likely (even though I REALLY hoped i was wrong), an obvious conclusion if you've followed any other major global elections in the last 2 years.
 
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Not as urgent now as it was yesterday. First, car manufacturers can return to prioritizing the petrol cars most European car buyers want. The manufacturers will find it easier to withstand institutional pressure with the green agenda now being compromised by Trump’s lack of support to the Paris Agreement. Second, Trump will pursue diplomatic solutions in conflict zones. That would never happen under Biden or Harris. Those guys would just fuel Eurasian warfare until the entire continent would get dragged in for real.
"Diplomatic solutions", give me a break. Here's your diplomatic solution: https://ground.news/article/documen...ted-to-the-surrender-of-ukraine-report_7dd952
 
Losing all government machinery (and not just the Presidency) to a guy who should be in prison is certainly a new low.
Geoff Garin, co-chief strategist for Hillary in 2016, thought Harris' "We're not going back" slogan wasn't focused enough on the future, and that all the "weird" talk was too negative.

He was a pollster for Biden, and then Harris adopted him when she took over.

These people don't go away.

A loss of all three branches won't force the dead-set losers out of the party, unless the party decides to force them out.

I wonder who the party will rally around once Biden's out. Not as presidential candidate per se, but as a voice of the party. I guess Pelosi is sticking around, and there's a handful of vocal Democratic governors, but neither are going to have much power. Will Harris still be in the spotlight? I honestly can't really remember what happened after 2016, but I think there were reasons for that.
 
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