Alabama Special Election 2017

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Johnnypenso

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Roy Moore still has a shot at winning. I would have guessed a slaughter by Jones. Too early to call but I'm surprised Moore still has a chance.
 
4,735
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FlyingAGasoline
"Well I heard mister Moore tried to grope her,
I heard old Roy put her down,
Well I hope Judge Moore will remember
No Southern Belles need him around anyhow.

Sweet Home Alabama
Where skies turnin' blue
Sweet Home Alabama
Lord I'm thanking God for you,
yes it's true.

remember, God's always got the answer."
 

DK

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We were always at war with Eastasia.

Against my better judgement, I had a look at Trump's Reddit cult to see how they were handling the news. The posts about the election pretty much boil down to paranoia that more Republican candidates will have sexual allegations unearthed against them.

So, we can expect the rapist Brock Turner to be hand-picked by Bannon & the alt-right some time in the next decade.
 
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TenEightyOne

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Against my better judgement, I had a look at Trump's Reddit cult to see how they were handling the news.

Dammit, I didn't want to look but you made me. Now I have to put my brain in the washing machine.
 

Famine

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No, thank the people of Alabama Moore didn't win.
No, thank 19% of the people of Alabama that Moore didn't win.

Ignoring all of the abuse allegations - because an allegation isn't a conviction anywhere in the civilised world - this guy Moore may be one of the most unsuitable human beings ever to run for public office. Along with being twice removed from his post of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama, he's stated that all of the Amendments after 10 cause America's problems (these include female suffrage and the abolition of slavery), supports making homosexuality illegal, rejects the separation of church and state, and doesn't accept evolutionary theory.

The fact that Literally Anyone Else only beats him in a popular vote by 1% of a 38% turnout is nothing short of an utter condemnation of the voting population of Alabama.
 

TheCracker

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The fact that Literally Anyone Else only beats him in a popular vote by 1% of a 38% turnout is nothing short of an utter condemnation of the voting population of Alabama.

Alabama had a 62% turnout for the presidential elections last year. They either don't care who represents them as a state, or they were dissuaded enough by Roy Moore's sparkling personality, but couldn't stomach voting Democrat to bother turning up.
 
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Simcoeace
I'm not sure about voter turnout - the figures I have seen seem to vary widely, but I understand turnout was somewhat higher than normal for a "special election".

The NYTimes has a breakdown by county:

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

It shows a microcosm of the divide in the US as a whole. Urban areas, like Birmingham, voted very heavily - by as much as 80% - 20% for Jones, while many rural areas voted by equally large margins for Moore.
 

Pupik

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The fact that Literally Anyone Else only beats him in a popular vote by 1% of a 38% turnout is nothing short of an utter condemnation of the voting population of Alabama.

Except me, but through absentee ballot. (Which may or may not get counted.)

I wonder if maybe 1% actually wasn't sure when Election Day was occurring.

There was a moment yesterday when I seriously had to consider leaving the state for good, because I was afraid my family and I would be sent to the re-neducation centers. Thankfully, the rest of Madison County seemed to have its head on straight.
 
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UKMikey

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Along with being twice removed from his post of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama, he's stated that all of the Amendments after 10 cause America's problems (these include female suffrage and the abolition of slavery), supports making homosexuality illegal, rejects the separation of church and state, and doesn't accept evolutionary theory.
Given his opposition to those constitutional amendments I can only conclude that the American values he wants to bring to DC are pre-Civil War era values. It sounds reminiscent of our own Baroness Thatcher and her albeit-qualified admiration for the values of the Victorian era.
 
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Simcoeace
The CBC is reporting this breakdown of the vote:

alabama-poll-1.jpg



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alabama-poll-4.jpg



What is fairly shocking to me, is that 68% of white voters still cast their vote for Roy Moore ... & that includes 52% of college educated white women. 79% of white non-college educated white men voted for Roy Moore. This is an indication of the way people think in the deep red states & how deeply rooted race still is as a factor in US life.
 

TB

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This is an indication of the way people think in the deep red states & how deeply rooted race still is as a factor in US life.
I certainly won't argue that with you but some of it is also "I'm a Republican and a 🤬 stain of a human being Republican is better than a Democrat" mentality comes into play, too.
 

UKMikey

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Thankfully, the rest of Madison County seemed to have its head on straight.
It looks like the sole Dem county commisioner is interested in building bridges (if you'll forgive the tired pun).

http://whnt.com/2017/12/13/madison-county-commission-weighs-in-on-election-results/

WHNT-19 News
As the now lone Democrat on the Madison County Commission, Commissioner Roger Jones said he is ecstatic with this victory. "I told my wife as they announced it, I said listen, I think I hear the late Bob Harrison cheering," he said.

With Doug Jones on his way to Washington, Commissioner Jones said, "I'd like to see people work together, come together for the good of the country, and not waste time on arguing and fussing."

Chairman Dale Strong said in the world of politics, nothing surprises him. But now it's time to focus on the great things happening in Madison County.

"We need this negativity at all levels to stop. The big thing is we believe in this republic, and what's occurred. Let's move forward, there will be another election, another day," he said.

Chairman Strong also said he wasn't surprised by the results in Madison County, even though it traditionally votes Republican.

"They're also independent voters, they use their own minds and their own brains. They don't let other people tell them how to vote, that's what I respect. We had a good turnout for a special election. Our republic is alive and well, and people were able to voice their thoughts through an election ballot," he explained.
 
5,659
Simcoeace
TB
I certainly won't argue that with you but some of it is also "I'm a Republican and a 🤬 stain of a human being Republican is better than a Democrat" mentality comes into play, too.

Well OK, but the real question is, WHY do the vast majority of white voters identify themselves as Republicans & an even greater proportion of blacks identify themselves as Democrats? It's possible that in the urban areas people vote on more nuanced policy preferences, but in the rural south (in particular) the racial divisions couldn't be more pronounced.
 
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HamiltonMP427
The CBC is reporting this breakdown of the vote:

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What is fairly shocking to me, is that 68% of white voters still cast their vote for Roy Moore ... & that includes 52% of college educated white women. 79% of white non-college educated white men voted for Roy Moore. This is an indication of the way people think in the deep red states & how deeply rooted race still is as a factor in US life.
It's not an indication really of people as it is as @TB stated. You can't sit there and make a broad stroke claim, with only a 38% turn out rate, and then it gets even smaller when you percentage how much of that 38% Moore won, and then it gets even smaller when you start giving variables to the population size of those won over voters.

What's even more difficult and intricate about the process is why they voted for Moore or Jones. None of your sampling tells me what they were thinking upon voting really, all it says is they have some background criteria and voted for such and such.

So when I look and see 14% women with college education voted and 52% of those 14% went with Moore (7.28%) of the projected 38% turn out where Moore won 48.9%, it's not indication of people's thought there. It's simply indication of who came out to vote, being party voters and religiously charged voters to a degree.
 
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HamiltonMP427
96% of black voters are party voters?

96% of 29% of the 38% projected voter turnout, possibly. If you look back at the main election threads you'll see more times than not stats tables showing the historically black voters vote democrat. When you take in to consideration the low yield of voters for this special election as well, it doesn't take much to say that perhaps most if not all were democrats that didn't want to see such a person have some say in national politics.

So to say "96% of black voters are party voters", as if to question if the state has some massive turnout and from said turnout a massive yield of black voters was seen. Fact is neither is the case and thus 29% of those voting could have been majority democrat, does it mean the entire 96% no, but then again my post doesn't identify one group of the stats provide. It lumps it all together based on the narrow margin of numbers and comes to the conclusion that this was more likely an image of dems vs republicans and also a religious aspect (pro vs life). I also say to a degree as to say not absolute. Simply because some people may have turned out just to vote and have a voice with no party affiliation, or vote because it's a State election that has had national coverage.
 

UKMikey

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96% of 29% of the 38% projected voter turnout, possibly. If you look back at the main election threads you'll see more times than not stats tables showing the historically black voters vote democrat. When you take in to consideration the low yield of voters for this special election as well, it doesn't take much to say that perhaps most if not all were democrats that didn't want to see such a person have some say in national politics.

So to say "96% of black voters are party voters", as if to question if the state has some massive turnout and from said turnout a massive yield of black voters was seen. Fact is neither is the case and thus 29% of those voting could have been majority democrat, does it mean the entire 96% no, but then again my post doesn't identify one group of the stats provide. It lumps it all together based on the narrow margin of numbers and comes to the conclusion that this was more likely an image of dems vs republicans and also a religious aspect (pro vs life). I also say to a degree as to say not absolute. Simply because some people may have turned out just to vote and have a voice with no party affiliation, or vote because it's a State election that has had national coverage.
So "to a degree" means an unspecified "some" of the quoted 96% of the 29% of voters who identified as black were party voters? Without figures I'm not sure how it's possible to cite this as a significant factor. All I'm going on is what was provided in CBC's infographic. If you have any conflicting data please provide it.

As to the bit in bold I've no idea how you extrapolated that from my one-sentence question. I'm not the one drawing any conclusions from the infographic about why people voted the way they did.
 
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HamiltonMP427
So "to a degree" means an unspecified "some" of the quoted 96% of the 29% of voters who identified as black were party voters? Without figures I'm not sure how it's possible to cite this as a significant factor. All I'm going on is what was provided in CBC's infographic. If you have any conflicting data please provide it.

Conflicting data to what? My response was that no this is not a clear cut case of "this is an indication of how people think in deep red states" or how race is a probable factor. Once again the numbers don't tell that deep of a story, rather tell a more likely one that seen in State elections compared to national elections there are typically larger turn outs of party voters.

Also how is it not significant to claim them party voters potentially?

As to the bit in bold I've no idea how you extrapolated that from my one-sentence question. I'm not the one drawing any conclusions from the infographic about why people voted the way they did.

Simple you seemed to hinge off a single number, when there are a few of them before you get to that single one. For example as Famine said he saw reports of a 38% voter turn out, then there is the second number seen and printed which is 29% were black. Finally you get to the 96% who voted for Jones over Moore. My point is that in that small sample of the entire voting population, it is hard to see how racism is an easy conclusion to come to. Also white voter turn outs were actual quite down and thus it's hard to see even more so how racism played a factor and if it did it was on yet again a small scale.
 

UKMikey

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Deleted... I don't want to start any arguments but resent the idea that asking a simple question betrays some hidden agenda against racism.
 
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HamiltonMP427
Deleted... I don't want to start any arguments but resent the idea that asking a simple question betrays some hidden agenda against racism.

Can you be clear, who has some hidden agenda for or against racism? I don't like the idea that from a small portion of a population size people would dare gleam a generalization, is that a problem to you? If so why? Because that was the point of my entire post.
 

UKMikey

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Can you be clear, who has some hidden agenda for or against racism? I don't like the idea that from a small portion of a population size people would dare gleam a generalization, is that a problem to you? If so why? Because that was the point of my entire post.
I don't have a hidden agenda and would resent it if someone tried to pin one on me. I figured that was clear enough in my previous post. Who do you think is "daring" to gleam a generalisation? I can't generalise if I haven't drawn a conclusion so all I did was ask you to clarify your statement and didn't even mention racism.
 
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I don't have a hidden agenda and would resent it if someone tried to pin one on me. I figured that was clear enough in my previous post.
I'm not about to enter this exchange about numbers and racism, but I feel the need to say you appear to have an agenda, marked by your choice to specify your retraction and explain it. You'd probably have been better off actually asking the question or simply left the post at "Deleted." The latter certainly wouldn't have come off quite so passive aggressive as what you actually posted.

Note: The italicized selections are so to denote perception rather than implied intent.