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Brexiteers right now...
Brexit - The UK leaves the EU
- Thread starter Touring Mars
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The UK parliament is set to vote on the EU-UK trade deal tomorrow, and it is expected to pass despite reservations all round.
It will, however, soon become apparent that Brexit is going to be a net loss for the UK, and opposition to 'The Deal' will no doubt grow rapidly as that becomes more and more apparent. This is likely all part of what the EU has wanted all along - a deal so onerous and heavily weighted in its favour that even people who supported it will soon come to question its worth, arguing (correctly) that we were better off inside the EU all along, and that the free trade deals the UK may strike with the rest of the world will be inferior to the deals the EU strikes with the same countries.
Hard Brexiteers will also be unhappy - very unhappy... because far from a 'clean break' from the EU, this deal requires virtually constant renegotiation and adherence to EU rules and regulations, which, in a lovely piece of irony, the UK no longer has any say over... almost like the dreaded 'Soft Brexit' outcome that Brexit skeptics have always warned about. As such, the ERG and the Tories will probably become more and more opposed to the terms of the trade deal, which will encourage them to take matters into their own hands by breaking the agreement (and international law), and risk a swift deterioration in relations with the EU, not to mention retaliation (which, amusingly, will be entirely legal).
Brexiteers have never appreciated that the UK's reliance on the EU goes well beyond the legal commitments it agreed to as an EU member, and as such the UK remains heavily reliant on EU co-operation in order to function smoothly even once it has formally exited from the community. And therein lies the rub - the UK's strongest card when it came to getting the most out of our relationship with continental Europe was our seat at the table of the EU28... but with that now gone, the UK has no say over what the EU does, even when that will still have a very large impact on what happens here in the UK.
Meanwhile, there is one group who should be happier than most with the outcome of Brexit - EU citizens living in the UK. Brexit has stripped rights of UK citizens but left most EU citizens in the UK with more rights than UK citizens... it's almost beyond parody.
It will, however, soon become apparent that Brexit is going to be a net loss for the UK, and opposition to 'The Deal' will no doubt grow rapidly as that becomes more and more apparent. This is likely all part of what the EU has wanted all along - a deal so onerous and heavily weighted in its favour that even people who supported it will soon come to question its worth, arguing (correctly) that we were better off inside the EU all along, and that the free trade deals the UK may strike with the rest of the world will be inferior to the deals the EU strikes with the same countries.
Hard Brexiteers will also be unhappy - very unhappy... because far from a 'clean break' from the EU, this deal requires virtually constant renegotiation and adherence to EU rules and regulations, which, in a lovely piece of irony, the UK no longer has any say over... almost like the dreaded 'Soft Brexit' outcome that Brexit skeptics have always warned about. As such, the ERG and the Tories will probably become more and more opposed to the terms of the trade deal, which will encourage them to take matters into their own hands by breaking the agreement (and international law), and risk a swift deterioration in relations with the EU, not to mention retaliation (which, amusingly, will be entirely legal).
Brexiteers have never appreciated that the UK's reliance on the EU goes well beyond the legal commitments it agreed to as an EU member, and as such the UK remains heavily reliant on EU co-operation in order to function smoothly even once it has formally exited from the community. And therein lies the rub - the UK's strongest card when it came to getting the most out of our relationship with continental Europe was our seat at the table of the EU28... but with that now gone, the UK has no say over what the EU does, even when that will still have a very large impact on what happens here in the UK.
Meanwhile, there is one group who should be happier than most with the outcome of Brexit - EU citizens living in the UK. Brexit has stripped rights of UK citizens but left most EU citizens in the UK with more rights than UK citizens... it's almost beyond parody.
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It's been clear for years that anything but reversing the referendum result and remaining would be a net loss. However, arguments over doing that have been done to death, time has long since passed to accept that it isn't going to happen, and frankly comparisons to that scenario are history.
Staying in the single market would have left us fully subject to EU rules, and further, no ability to make other trade deals. Perhaps also no net financial loss, but certainly a loss in 'sovereignty' due to having no say in the rules. IMO this was never a valid option.
Not that I'm happy about this outcome, but in the circumstances I can't see what would be a better one. From what little I read from brexiteers, they seem reasonably happy that the EU hasn't managed to retain "onerous" conditions in the text - and on this one point I'm happier to take their PoV than a remainer's. In most respects it appears to be a better deal than many (on both leave and remain sides of the debate) had hoped for (again, in the circumstances).
In practice, who knows? For sure it's "possible" for a lot of things to sour in the relationship, but with no automatic punishment tariffs it is at least now less likely. So the EU had to concede on that aspect, yet can still claim it's not really possible to fully leave. The UK can claim its independence, while still being somewhat dependant. That's the deal that both parties could agree to. It is perfectly reasonable to have terms that restrict one party from undercutting the other in order to have a trade deal with them. I have a suspicion that there will be an effort from the EU to restrain member states from complaining about every little rule divergence, at least for a while.
Blame Cameron if you like, I do, but pouring scorn over this particular outcome is pointless I'm afraid.
The more interesting political aspect to the future is whether the federalists will now make gains - I'd say it's almost certain they will, starting with more powers to the ECB thanks to there no longer being any major non-euro states. My prediction is that we'll see such debates filling our headlines for the next decade or two rather than disputes over UK-EU trade.
Staying in the single market would have left us fully subject to EU rules, and further, no ability to make other trade deals. Perhaps also no net financial loss, but certainly a loss in 'sovereignty' due to having no say in the rules. IMO this was never a valid option.
Not that I'm happy about this outcome, but in the circumstances I can't see what would be a better one. From what little I read from brexiteers, they seem reasonably happy that the EU hasn't managed to retain "onerous" conditions in the text - and on this one point I'm happier to take their PoV than a remainer's. In most respects it appears to be a better deal than many (on both leave and remain sides of the debate) had hoped for (again, in the circumstances).
In practice, who knows? For sure it's "possible" for a lot of things to sour in the relationship, but with no automatic punishment tariffs it is at least now less likely. So the EU had to concede on that aspect, yet can still claim it's not really possible to fully leave. The UK can claim its independence, while still being somewhat dependant. That's the deal that both parties could agree to. It is perfectly reasonable to have terms that restrict one party from undercutting the other in order to have a trade deal with them. I have a suspicion that there will be an effort from the EU to restrain member states from complaining about every little rule divergence, at least for a while.
Blame Cameron if you like, I do, but pouring scorn over this particular outcome is pointless I'm afraid.
The more interesting political aspect to the future is whether the federalists will now make gains - I'd say it's almost certain they will, starting with more powers to the ECB thanks to there no longer being any major non-euro states. My prediction is that we'll see such debates filling our headlines for the next decade or two rather than disputes over UK-EU trade.
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True, the Remain ship sailed many moons ago, but that doesn't change the fact that it is, to my knowledge at least, still not possible to polish a turd - nor should those responsible be let off the hook for the damage they have already done, and for what is to come...
For Remainers, the deal is indeed better than the worst case scenario (No Deal), but it still sucks big time compared to EU membership - indeed there are virtually (if not entirely) no gains at all... this trade deal does, however, avoid a substantial amount of damage... like blowing up the second piece of the comet in Deep Impact, or spraying a turd with some Febreze (and a legally binding turd at that...)
For Leavers, it's also not as bad as it could be - it's not Soft Brexit, but it's also nowhere near what they wanted - but, to be fair, it has never been clear (either politically or even hypothetically) what Brexiteers actually wanted, other than 'sovereignty', ending the free movement of people, and being "free" from "EU rules and regulations".
My hunch is that most Leave voters will be happy for now, but most actual Brexiteers will be livid, and increasingly so. Why the disparity? Because Brexiteers know how terrible this outcome is compared to what they aimed for, and they know that Boris is counting on the fact that most people who empowered him won't realise the full extent of the problem until he is long gone.
Right now, both the UK and the EU have, predictably (and necessarily) painted this trade deal as a victory for their side. But, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that this cannot possibly be true in reality... and indeed it is not. We lost, bigly.
I understand what you are saying, and agree for the most part, but clearly there's a paradox at play here if this can even be remotely true...
For Remainers, the deal is indeed better than the worst case scenario (No Deal), but it still sucks big time compared to EU membership - indeed there are virtually (if not entirely) no gains at all... this trade deal does, however, avoid a substantial amount of damage... like blowing up the second piece of the comet in Deep Impact, or spraying a turd with some Febreze (and a legally binding turd at that...)
For Leavers, it's also not as bad as it could be - it's not Soft Brexit, but it's also nowhere near what they wanted - but, to be fair, it has never been clear (either politically or even hypothetically) what Brexiteers actually wanted, other than 'sovereignty', ending the free movement of people, and being "free" from "EU rules and regulations".
My hunch is that most Leave voters will be happy for now, but most actual Brexiteers will be livid, and increasingly so. Why the disparity? Because Brexiteers know how terrible this outcome is compared to what they aimed for, and they know that Boris is counting on the fact that most people who empowered him won't realise the full extent of the problem until he is long gone.
Right now, both the UK and the EU have, predictably (and necessarily) painted this trade deal as a victory for their side. But, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that this cannot possibly be true in reality... and indeed it is not. We lost, bigly.
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Well that's just it... of course we lost bigly compared to remaining. That was starting to be lost when the concessions Cameron got didn't placate leavers (who, IMO, rightly understood that removing the words didn't remove the intent towards "ever closer union") and when he called a referendum. Then lost the night of the referendum, lost when Cameron legged it, lost when claims the referendum was invalid failed, lost when May pursued an impossible deal, lost when Boris solidly won his election, lost when we left at the end of January, lost when negotiations were underway towards a 'Canada-style' deal, and now lost with this deal.
On top of all you've mentioned, there is now a barrier to free trade with NI - although I'm not sure exactly what that is in practice (is anyone?!), it too is a loss.
The vote was 'out' and IMO this is the best 'out' can be like. I'm not cheering it, just relieved. A turd it is not. It's the least smelly afterfart of a turd laid long ago.
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- TenEightyOne
- TenEightyOne
Freeze it. Thought you were a scientist?
On the subject of EU regulations, some meat products will not be legal for export to the EU. This is terrible, it's like they're making rules to suit all the countries that are part of their club and we don't get any say.
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"Boris the Betrayer has slayed us!" exclaims Phil Mitchell, fisherman at Newlyn port, Cornwall. Gid out moi puuub.
- 16,472
- Grea'er Laandan
- UKMikeyA
- UKMikeyA
*plays sad sea shanty for Phil on world's smallest concertina*
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I always feel too uninformed about the ecological impact of fishing to care about any brexit related changes to fishing rules. It never seems to be mentioned in the small amount of news I've read on the subject which is why I don't pay more attention. Admittedly, this could be why I don't find the information that I think is missing from the stories.
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- TenEightyOne
- TenEightyOne
This is true, although there's an argument that if only UK fishermen could fish in UK waters then only they could sell that UK "produce" into Europe, where most of it goes. I'm still not sure that would claw back the economic powerhouse that the fishing industry seems to think it would.
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Things I learned.
There's a code on packets of Birdseye Fish fingers that allows you to trace where your fish came from via their website. I'm heading to the shops forthwith to purchase some breaded, elongated-cuboid fishy comestibles!
There's a code on packets of Birdseye Fish fingers that allows you to trace where your fish came from via their website. I'm heading to the shops forthwith to purchase some breaded, elongated-cuboid fishy comestibles!
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- Grea'er Laandan
- UKMikeyA
- UKMikeyA
Could get us up to a whole per cent. Boris, you betrayer!
This is evidently some kind of fish sticking point with the Cornishmen. Or, since we're in the UK, a fish fingering point.
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An anagram of "Captain Birdseye" is "I is betrayed, Cap'n!"
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Brexit about to mean Brexit! 
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So, I order quite a few watches from Ali Express. Some are very well made homages of very expensive Swiss watches at a very reasonable price.
Some of the Ali Express stores have distribution warehouses in Europe which cuts down delivery time from 20-40 days to usually a week. Just gone to order a watch in a flash sale from the Spanish distribution centre of one store and I'm met by the message that they no longer deliver from this location to my country. Tried a couple of other stores selling the same watch, same result. Brexit Britain everyone. This is my first taste of the changes Brexit will introduce. Not keen.
Some of the Ali Express stores have distribution warehouses in Europe which cuts down delivery time from 20-40 days to usually a week. Just gone to order a watch in a flash sale from the Spanish distribution centre of one store and I'm met by the message that they no longer deliver from this location to my country. Tried a couple of other stores selling the same watch, same result. Brexit Britain everyone. This is my first taste of the changes Brexit will introduce. Not keen.
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Hearing similar things from people in the comments section of Times articles
