Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

[Touring Mars]

I don't think he's ruled it out in all cases, I took it that he believes it's not required because the deal has been agreed and he believes Johnson can get it through parliament. When/if that goes wrong, there's no longer a deal, and the statement "We have a deal so why should we have a prolongation" becomes irrelevant.

Yes, that's probably true - but... the EU have categorically ruled out any extension unless the UK holds a General Election and/or a second referendum.

But even then, neither option gives anything like the certainty that the EU will get through this deal - indeed, if anything, a General Election could simply put No Deal back on the table.

One thing is for sure, Labour's plan on Brexit is dead... if it ever were alive in the first place. They have no credible plan, and the Commons has already proved that there is no single option it is prepared to go for, except for a deal with the backstop removed.

IMO, the EU are very unlikely to accept a request for an extension while Johnson still has a chance of getting the deal through. Ironically, it is almost the same argument that Johnson applied but coming from the other side... by keeping an extension on the table, the EU are making a deal less likely - taking an extension off the table could basically force Labour MPs to rethink their plans.

 

[PocketZeven]

What is the chance of another referendum happening currently?

 

[Woodybobs]

What is the chance of another referendum happening currently?

I think parliament will be voting on that issue on Saturday.

 

[Touring Mars]

What is the chance of another referendum happening currently?

Unless Johnson can somehow win a majority by Saturday (which is looking pretty unlikely) then the chances of a second referendum of some form or other are pretty high.

I think parliament will be voting on that issue on Saturday.

...or not. The Labour leadership appear opposed to such an idea...

Though Parliament has already voted - twice - on the subject of a 'confirmatory vote' and both times it was defeated.

 

[Daz555]

Deal fatigue may be Johnson's only chance of getting this through MPs may vote for his deal just to get it done.

It's a terrible deal though. Personally I hope it is voted down and Parliament has the guts for a confirmatory referendum.

 

[Touring Mars]

The trouble for the opposition to the deal is that if they vote it down, an extension will only be granted if they also agree to a General Election or force a second referendum - that will have to be formally approved by Parliament prior to the extension being granted.

The major risk with both ideas is that it could (in theory at least) put No Deal right back on the table - and, worse still, could result in a new Parliament with the power to force No Deal through. The Brexit party could stand to be power brokers which could result in the current deal (too soft for the hardliners, too hard for Labour etc.) being torn up and leaving No Deal as the only option that can command a majority. The opposition need to consider this point very carefully before throwing this deal under the bus.

As the Guardian are saying this morning, Boris Johnson could be in a win-win situation now - either he gets his deal (big win for him) or he forces a General Election (which could be a big win for him too).

An election based on Brexit will smash Labour. Not only is the party is a terrible state (even without considering Brexit) due to the anti-antisemitism scandal, they are still wedded to a softer-than-soft Brexit that would be about as welcome as a fart in a spacesuit. Everything the party says on Brexit suggests that they are desperate to keep their leave voters happy, while at the same time doing everything they can to stop Brexit from happening - and, as a result, they appear to favour the one option that everyone hates - leaving the EU's political structures while staying under EU control indefinitely.

 

[Daz555]

A election right now would make the current divisions in the country look like Happy Families.

It will be brutal and divisive.

 

[Liquid]

 

[Touring Mars]

A election right now would make the current divisions in the country look like Happy Families.

It will be brutal and divisive.

The EU are clear that any further extension to Article 50 is contingent upon a public vote of some description...

But yes, another vote prior to Brexit will be very divisive.

-

The irony of the DUP's current position is that the pressure that they themsevles have helped to exert on the EU has resulted in what is essentially the cherry-picked ideal that the Tories really wanted for the whole of the UK (out of the EU, but full access to the single market), but the DUP don't want it because the rest of the UK aren't getting it... meanwhile, Scotland is getting screwed because the arrangement that NI are about to get is exactly what Scotland wants but has never even had a sniff of that option being presented to Scotland.

 

[TenEightyOne]

another vote prior to Brexit will be very divisive

I don't think it could get much worse.

 

[PzR Slim]

Wouldn't it be great if we could all have this cracking deal...

 

[TenEightyOne]

Wouldn't it be great if we could all have this cracking deal...

I heard that too. I can't believe that the thing we're exiting is being sold as the best bit of the deal for the country that keeps it.

 

[PzR Slim]

I heard that too. I can't believe that the thing we're exiting is being sold as the best bit of the deal for the country that keeps it.

It's absolutely incredible. Not sure if it says more about Raab or the huge chunk of the electorate who will buy it. It's hopeless.

 

[Liquid]

If Northern Ireland's frictionless trade with the EU so brilliant, why is Great Britain giving it away?

 

[TenEightyOne]

If Northern Ireland's frictionless trade with the EU so brilliant, why is Great Britain giving it away?

Becos wer takin bak contrl!

 

[PzR Slim]

Brexit of any persuasion is just great isn't it?



Self inflicted madness.

 

[Touring Mars]

If Northern Ireland's frictionless trade with the EU so brilliant, why is Great Britain giving it away?

And the bitter irony is, the DUP don't even want it!

 

[PzR Slim]

No words.

 

[Milouse]

I can't even listen to her as my gamer's brain is trying to figure out how to throw balls to match-3 those on that necklace.

 

[NotThePrez]

MPs vote against no-deal exit, Prime Minister still plans to have the pull out by the end of the month.

So, if I'm understanding this situation correctly, the British Parliament has voted against a no-deal exit and also to ask the EU for a further extension on Brexit, and Boris Johnson is required by law to do those things. However, Johnson has basically said he'll do neither of those things, despite being required to by British law.

How does Johnson plan on doing that, and how does that not instantly kill his support/bring his ability to govern in question?

 

[Famine]

How does Johnson plan on doing that, and how does that not instantly kill his support/bring his ability to govern in question?

You may not be glad you asked.

Boris has indeed sent a letter to Donald Tusk requesting an extension, as required by the Letwin Amendment. This letter is a photocopy of a section of the Benn Act (which lays out what the PM must send), and Boris has not signed it. The Benn Act is redundant at this point, as it exists to prevent the UK leaving without a deal and was made (in a couple of hours) before Boris got the new deal.

Boris has sent a second letter, from Sir Tim Barrow - the UK's permanent representative to the EU - stating that the first letter was sent as a legal requirement.

Boris has also sent a third letter, telling Donald Tusk that no extension is necessary and he does not seek one, which he has signed.


This approach has been signed off by the Attorney General as meeting the legal requirements of the Letwin Amendment

 

[MatskiMonk]

When they make the film of this, I can imagine the exposition scene where Boris claims he'd rather be dead in a ditch than ask the EU for a delay, foreshadows a scene where we see his employers hold a gun to his head in the back of the Jag, on the way to Westminster today.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Boris has indeed sent a letter to Donald Tusk requesting an extension, as required by the Letwin Amendment. This letter is a photocopy of a section of the Benn Act (which lays out what the PM must send), and Boris has not signed it. The Benn Act is redundant at this point, as it exists to prevent the UK leaving without a deal and was made (in a couple of hours) before Boris got the new deal.

Boris has sent a second letter, from Sir Tim Barrow - the UK's permanent representative to the EU - stating that the first letter was sent as a legal requirement.

Boris has also sent a third letter, telling Donald Tusk that no extension is necessary and he does not seek one, which he has signed.

I believe this is called "malicious compliance".

 

[NotThePrez]

You may not be glad you asked.

Boris has indeed sent a letter to Donald Tusk requesting an extension, as required by the Letwin Amendment. This letter is a photocopy of a section of the Benn Act (which lays out what the PM must send), and Boris has not signed it. The Benn Act is redundant at this point, as it exists to prevent the UK leaving without a deal and was made (in a couple of hours) before Boris got the new deal.

Ok, that's definitely kinda bad, pretty unprofessional if nothing else...

Boris has sent a second letter, from Sir Tim Barrow - the UK's permanent representative to the EU - stating that the first letter was sent as a legal requirement.

Boris has also sent a third letter, telling Donald Tusk that no extension is necessary and he does not seek one, which he has signed.

Uhhhhh......

This approach has been signed off by the Attorney General as meeting the legal requirements of the Letwin Amendment

So, basically, Mr. Johnson has told both his government and the EU to go 🤬 themselves,...and one of the people in charge of making sure the PM doesn't break the law failed to do so? Maybe this is me being...an American, but that's kinda hilarious, in a really sad way.

So, what options does the British government have at this point? Or is it another game of wait and see? Probably a dumb question, but can they Veto the PM's malarkey, or ask the EU independent of him, considering he's made it very clear he's not going to follow the laws he's bound to?

 

[Betty blue]

I don't think the EU should grant an extension really... sorry but the EU did more than enough in extending the deadline before. The Brits are having political civil war ,3 months won't change a thing on a disagreement on this scale.

 

[DG_Silva]

I don't think the EU should grant an extension really...

I don't think the EU should give the UK an extension. It should be a case of either agreeing the next deal which comes through, or simply put up and say 'We guys didn't think you'd ever vote to leave, and you know what? We're never going to.' Have the guts and be honest.

 

[Touring Mars]

The EU should make any new extension conditional upon the WA being voted for in Parliament.

Once the WA commands a Commons majority, the ratification process can start and the EU can/should offer a short, technical extension to provide the time needed for the ratification process to be completed. I can’t see why a very definite timeline could not be fixed for that, and could be as short as a couple of days.

 

[PocketZeven]

So no second referendum?

 

[novcze]

Hope there is no extension so your politicians have to make up their mind, either take the deal or no deal brexit. It's really pathetic at this point. Can you be kicked out of the EU if your politicians don't agree on anything and current extension is over?

So no second referendum?

you can't repeat referendums until it yield result you want.

 

[PzR Slim]

you can't repeat referendums until it yield result you want.

We could have a referendum on the final deal however. Seems that is what Labour are going to push for.