COVID-19/Coronavirus Discussion Thread (see OP for useful links)

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TexRex

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Better late than never?
He sandwiched it between anti-vaxx rhetoric. He also didn't refrain from spewing the same anti-vaxx rhetoric over the radio, to an even larger audience than his primetime show garners, without such a plea.


It's purely performative rather than a genuine appeal to his base. He's doing the smallest amount possible to save his sorry ass.
 
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Michael88

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Got my 2nd Pfizer shot today, I really hope it will work for the delta variant too. I tried to do some research on that topic but everything I read about is theory and its mostly conflicting data. Nobody really knows. I'd already be satisfied if the vaccination would reduce the likelihood of getting a severe case of delta by 70% or so.

Anyway, the doctor giving me the vaccination shot said I would not experience the same soreness in my shoulder I got from my 1st shot, but that's not really true, my shoulder is just as sore again. But if that's the only side effect I'm super happy.
 

Blitz24

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Got my 2nd Pfizer shot today, I really hope it will work for the delta variant too. I tried to do some research on that topic but everything I read about is theory and its mostly conflicting data. Nobody really knows. I'd already be satisfied if the vaccination would reduce the likelihood of getting a severe case of delta by 70% or so.

Anyway, the doctor giving me the vaccination shot said I would not experience the same soreness in my shoulder I got from my 1st shot, but that's not really true, my shoulder is just as sore again. But if that's the only side effect I'm super happy.
I had soreness as well after my second shot (like my first). Other than that, no complications.
 
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A bit of (much) brighter news here in Scotland:

Case numbers are still falling, and test positivity rates (a clearer measure of what is going on) appear to have peaked, reaching a high point of 10.18% 16 days ago. Since then, the 7-day average of case numbers has steadily fallen back to under 2000 a day - still high, but definitely on the decline.

Hospitalisations are continuing to rise though, and are now approaching around 50% of the hospitalisations seen in the last peak, albeit with a higher number of cases.

What this might be showing is that case levels have hit an 'immunity ceiling' in Scotland - at least for the moment - and hence England, which can expect to see hefty rises in case numbers over the next couple of weeks, might not be far behind. In other words, the worst-case scenarios of 200,000+ new cases per day in England might just be avoidable if herd immunity starts to take effect...

Good news indeed! Can expect admissions to start falling as well, to follow prior case numbers.

In England, I believe it's a somewhat similar picture as Scotland for the NW, but the rolling wave is creeping southwards.

200k/day seems very unlikely given the way it's spreading. More likely to have a very broad top rather than an actual, easily identifiable peak, IMO. My prediction is that the highest numbers will be seen quite soon (a week or two) then fade off very slowly. But, compared to Ferguson's model, I doubt there's much difference in overall number of cases over the next two months.
Well, any news on the good side is welcome.

Logic says that at some point, with 37m+ who have had both jabs, and the percentage effectiveness of the double jab having been regularly quoted as being very high, even against Delta, there has to be a point at which herd immunity kicks in and cases are limited naturally. What no one really knows is where that point actually is.

If (big if) Scotland has reached that point, then England, Wales and Northern Ireland should peak at a similar ratio per populus overall. However, there will be significant variations regionally depending on demographics, affluence, population spread etc.

The north east seems to be hit bad in terms of case numbers currently. The Midlands are likely to have high numbers too. But the Shires, for example, may not peak as high.

London I'm not sure of. It has a relatively young population demographic and vaccination rates were lower at one point. But I'm not sure of the position now. Plus, London was hit hard with the first wave, so many may already have immunity from previous exposure.
 

Joey D

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I've been a part of e-mail chains all afternoon about the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, so I figured it would at least be worth mentioning it here. Despite what some media outlets are saying, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is likely not "ineffective" against the Delta variant.

Here's a really concise take on it:


Essentially, the study that the media outlets are quoting had an NYU researcher draw blood from 10 people and put it in a dish, then introduced various strains of the virus. It certainly tests a hypothesis, but it's not all that conclusive by any means and it's not an efficacy study. So please, if you got Johnson & Johnson you likely have sufficient protection. If the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the only one available to you, it's going to protect you, or at least protect you better than no vaccine at all.
 

Dotini

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I'm hearing local media discussing cases of people who have been fully vaccinated now coming down with a possible variant coronavirus with mild symptoms like runny nose and other mild flu symptoms. I have a cousin who fits this scenario. He says he's starting to feel better now, a week on. Should I immediately resume a mask free relationship, or should I give it more time for him to fully recover before taking the risk of getting it myself?
 
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Touring Mars

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I'm hearing local media discussing cases of people who have been fully vaccinated now coming down with a possible variant coronavirus with mild symptoms like runny nose and other mild flu symptoms. I have a cousin who fits this scenario. He says he's starting to feel better now, a week on. Should I immediately resume a mask free relationship, or should I give it more time for him to fully recover before taking the risk of getting it myself?
The advice here is that people who test positive (after showing symptoms) need to self-isolate for 10 days, and hence after that the infected person should (hopefully) no longer be contagious. (Did your cousin get a test?)

Delta variant does supposedly have markedly different symptoms to earlier variants insomuch as cold-like symptoms (runny nose, sore throat) are more prevalent, but it is also more transmissible and (supposedly) more dangerous.

That said, the lifting of restrictions is bringing with it a surge in other viruses - there's currently outbreaks of norovirus and RSV underway in the UK, as well as the ever-present danger of flu.

If in doubt, meet outside or in a well-ventilated space as much as possible.
 

Dotini

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The advice here is that people who test positive (after showing symptoms) need to self-isolate for 10 days, and hence after that the infected person should (hopefully) no longer be contagious. (Did your cousin get a test?)

Delta variant does supposedly have markedly different symptoms to earlier variants insomuch as cold-like symptoms (runny nose, sore throat) are more prevalent, but it is also more transmissible and (supposedly) more dangerous.

That said, the lifting of restrictions is bringing with it a surge in other viruses - there's currently outbreaks of norovirus and RSV underway in the UK, as well as the ever-present danger of flu.

If in doubt, meet outside or in a well-ventilated space as much as possible.
I'm pretty sure he's neither been tested nor quarantined for a full 10 days, maybe 7. I'm scheduled to meet up with him for two days at the fishing cabin tomorrow and for a boat journey. If I were a cautious man, I'd postpone the meet for another week.
 

Touring Mars

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I'm pretty sure he's neither been tested nor quarantined for a full 10 days, maybe 7. I'm scheduled to meet up with him for two days at the fishing cabin tomorrow and for a boat journey. If I were a cautious man, I'd postpone the meet for another week.
If he is still symptomatic (coughing, sneezing etc.) then I would personally delay or postpone it until he was feeling better.
 

Dotini

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If he is still symptomatic (coughing, sneezing etc.) then I would personally delay or postpone it until he was feeling better.
He had all the classic symptoms of a breakthrough case; runny nose, sore throat, sneezes, headache. He still sounds hoarse and says he's been better, and now his wife has caught it. His son refuses to get vaccinated, and they get together frequently. So now I've persuaded him to go and get a test.
 
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Touring Mars

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One may have thought that the UK Government might have foreseen what would happen if they let infections run out of control while also expecting people who have been in contact with a positive case to self-isolate.

Shops are starting to run out of food, petrol stations are running out of fuel, shops and hospitals are running low on staff at a time when COVID hospitalisations are rising.

Only now are the UK Government planning to decide whether certain key workers (including supermarket staff and lorry drivers) can be exempted from self-isolation, even though that will increase the likelihood of these workers getting the virus itself... 🙄

My sister's friend who works in the local Co-op (mini supermarket) was told to come to work even though her 3 children have all tested positive in the last two weeks. Pretty reprehensible behaviour from her employer, but it does indicate that they are probably running low on staff and can't afford for people to self-isolate. But if/when she tests positive herself, she will have no choice but to stay away, and hopefully that happens before she ends up infecting more staff. Either way, I won't be that surprised to hear that the shop is closed at some point...

... but, that is the only shop that many less mobile and elderly people can access without a car. If that shop were to close even temporarily, that community is going to have a serious problem. And it's a problem that is likely happening across the entire country very soon.
 
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MatskiMonk

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Shops are starting to run out of food, petrol stations are running out of fuel,
We're in a bit of a pickle really. It's not just the immediate effects of large groups having to self isolate, it's coming at a time when global supply chains are stressed (most industries are reporting shortage, be it semi-conductors or even basic raw materials), UK supply chains particularly so thanks to Brexit. The **** really is piling on. We supply the medical industry, there's stuff that we can't get until next year that we need now.
 

Touring Mars

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Big new data drop/update on hospitalisations in Scotland as data from the last 4 days was just added to the dashboard now... and it is very good news... as expected, the hospitalisation rate does look to be tracking new cases pretty well, with a lag of around 7-9 days. New cases in Scotland continue to fall as well, so let's hope this downward trend continues.

Source: https://public.tableau.com/app/prof...OVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
 

Joey D

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Well this is completely unsurprising:


The lab leak hypothesis is a valid thing to look into. In no way does it claim that China was developing bio-weapons or engineering viruses, only that lab protocols weren't followed and people were infected. This continues to be rather disappointing.
 

Joey D

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It's official, my dad (who got covid) is an anti-masker. I used this thread, and especially @Joey D's links to try to explain how misguided that is.
I'm glad I could at least provide some information. It's sad to see how many people become anti-mask though, especially when they're family members. Thankfully my parents are very pro-mask, but the same can't be said for my extended family.
 

Danoff

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I'm glad I could at least provide some information. It's sad to see how many people become anti-mask though, especially when they're family members. Thankfully my parents are very pro-mask, but the same can't be said for my extended family.
Currently, he's an anti-vaxxer as well, at least when it comes to the covid vaccine. He says since he's already had covid, he shouldn't need the vaccine. I guess he's never heard of the flu.
 
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View attachment 1069065

Big new data drop/update on hospitalisations in Scotland as data from the last 4 days was just added to the dashboard now... and it is very good news... as expected, the hospitalisation rate does look to be tracking new cases pretty well, with a lag of around 7-9 days. New cases in Scotland continue to fall as well, so let's hope this downward trend continues.

Source: https://public.tableau.com/app/prof...OVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
Do we have one or more theory why the peak was reached at that day with such an abrupt change?
 

Danoff

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The latest from my dad. Cloth masks don't work, but Hydrochloroquin does. Here's the meta-study he's giving me to show it:


What kind of absolute... person using selective rigor scoffs at masks and promotes hydrocholorquin on the basis of a meta-study?
 

Touring Mars

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Do we have one or more theory why the peak was reached at that day with such an abrupt change?
It's likely down to several factors:
1. Scottish school year ended on 25th June (English schools close tomorrow/next week I think)
2. Antibody levels in most adult age groups has risen to over 90% now
3. Infections could have been (and almost certainly were) inflated due to Euro 2020
4. Loosening of restrictions also fueled an increase but is now hitting an 'immunity ceiling'

It may also be that infection rates in the UK as a whole are starting to follow suit too, which would be amazing news - but, England has made several changes that Scotland has not - abandoned mask mandates completely, opened nightclubs etc. - and so I won't be surprised if England doesn't see the same drop in cases and may even see an acceleration in cases (esp. in younger adults) over the next couple of months. England plan to make it compulsory to have two vaccinations to use nightclubs from September onwards, while allowing them to open now with no checks or testing at all. Boris Johnson says this is 'plain common sense'...
 
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Touring Mars

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The latest from my dad. Cloth masks don't work, but Hydrochloroquin does. Here's the meta-study he's giving me to show it:


What kind of absolute... person using selective rigor scoffs at masks and promotes hydrocholorquin on the basis of a meta-study?
Does your Dad think/talk about mask-wearing in terms of protection conferred to the wearer or to other people?

I got a text from my surgery this morning to say that from now on, everyone must wear a clinical (FFP3) mask when seeing a GP in person, and that everyone will be issued with such a mask upon entry to the surgery.
 

Danoff

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Does your Dad think/talk about mask-wearing in terms of protection conferred to the wearer or to other people?
They're "useless". But not hydrochloroquine, that's a "life-saver". Honestly, the dude is so deep into crazy-land that I'd have him pegged for long covid mental problems (which would be very ironic, especially considering the vaccine might actually help that). The problem is, his complete divorce from reality aligns perfectly with right-wing media, so it's hard to tell if he's lost it or if he's just a right-winger.

Edit:

Picture a geezer who had covid about 6 months back rambling around saying "I know I saw the article not that long ago, but I can't find it now, big tech is censoring it, that's why I can't find it. It was only a few weeks back, but now it's gone. It's big pharma and google trying to hide the evidence". Sure thing pops, let's get you someplace safe. Except this is now an accepted political position.
 
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It's likely down to several factors:
1. Scottish school year ended on 25th June (English schools close tomorrow/next week I think)
2. Antibody levels in most adult age groups has risen to over 90% now
3. Infections could have been (and almost certainly were) inflated due to Euro 2020
4. Loosening of restrictions also fueled an increase but is now hitting an 'immunity ceiling'

It may also be that infection rates in the UK as a whole are starting to follow suit too, which would be amazing news - but, England has made several changes that Scotland has not - abandoned mask mandates completely, opened nightclubs etc. - and so I won't be surprised if England doesn't see the same drop in cases and may even see an acceleration in cases (esp. in younger adults) over the next couple of months. England plan to make it compulsory to have two vaccinations to use nightclubs from September onwards, while allowing them to open now with no checks or testing at all. Boris Johnson says this is 'plain common sense'...
I agree with those, and think I'd only add:
5. People reacting to an increased threat level by being more cautious.

Despite the attention drawn to examples of caution being thrown to the wind, I still believe the majority react sensibly when cases are rising in their area. Collectively, it's likely a big factor, and definitely in play in England now with 2/3 saying they'll carry on wearing masks even if they didn't have to.

Cases in England have fallen from a peak of 51k on the 17th to 36k today, somehow. Unless it gets dramatically worse in the next couple of days, the 7 day cases will show a substantial % fall. Perhaps for all the same reasons, except with #1 replaced by having 1/4 of schoolchildren out of school isolating.

Still predicting that cases will stay at high levels in England for some time, even if we have already seen the overall peak.
 
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Stotty

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Currently, he's an anti-vaxxer as well, at least when it comes to the covid vaccine. He says since he's already had covid, he shouldn't need the vaccine. I guess he's never heard of the flu.
I won’t comment on his other views, but this one at least would seem to be sensible.


What’s the benefit of vaccination if you’ve already had covid?
 

Touring Mars

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I agree with those, and think I'd only add:
5. People reacting to an increased threat level by being more cautious.
I don't see much evidence of that though. People are certainly still being cautious, but definitely not 'more' cautious... if anything, there's more less cautious behaviour (bars, cafes and restaurants are busier, for example) but fortunately mask-wearing in shops and in public places is still mandatory here and people are still abiding by that.

It might also be partially down to the increased numbers of people self-isolating too, though.
I won’t comment on his other views, but this one at least would seem to be sensible.


What’s the benefit of vaccination if you’ve already had covid?
It's a fair question, but the truth is that no-one really knows for sure how long immunity lasts after either an infection or a vaccination. Evidence so far suggests that protection from a subsequent infection might only last around 6 months, but there's very little evidence (though it is certainly possible) that people can be infected again... it's still too early to say, but vaccination after infection makes as much sense as vaccination without an infection, esp. if one was infected some time ago.

edit: As @Danoff alludes to as well, vaccinations/boosters against future variants of SARS-CoV-2 will almost certainly be needed to prevent new variants from creating new waves of severe illness. There are already booster shots for the Delta variant in the pipeline, for example.
 
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