COVID-19/Coronavirus Discussion Thread (see OP for useful links)

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Dotini

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You're suggesting that it incubates/persists for months? The only statements from scientists I've seen suggest an average of 6 days incubation followed by 7 days of symptomatic suffering. By the end of that time patients are alive (98% so far) or dead (2% so far, all elderly or with preexisting respiratory conditions).

You seem keen to stew the figures to get a much higher death rate but the evidence is apparently against that.
No, I'm not suggesting incubation persists for months. How did you ever get that idea? I'm suggesting incubation can take up to 14 days, that cold and flu like symptoms can present for a week or more, and that a final struggle for life with pneumonia can take weeks or even months.

You are accusing me of fear mongering, and I resent it. Just stop it. I am not keen to skew the death rate. Accepting official statistics, it is what it is. I see that you are suggesting that the course the disease takes is a total of 13 days from infection to either life or death. That seems facile, simpleminded, and misleading to me. Right now what we have in reality according to official statistics is 12,024 infected, 259 dead and 287 recovered. Subtracting the dead and recovered from the infected, it would seem there are 11,478 still infected and fighting (ultimately pneumonia) to recover their health. I'm going to respectfully and regretfully suggest that a certain percentage of that 11, 478 will die, and the final rate will be more than 2%.
 
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Danoff

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You are accusing me of fear mongering, and I resent it. Just stop it.

How do you post this roughly within 20 minutes of posting this?

If the Republicans are corruptly seizing power and influencing the next election, would it not be a sound idea to fight them to the very maximum in the courts, in the media, in Congress, and ultimately on the streets in acts of defiance, boycott, sabotage and finally armed rebellion?
 

Dotini

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How do you post this roughly within 20 minutes of posting this?
I'm suggesting the Republicans may not be generally corrupt and trying to illegally gain power and illegally influence the next election. If you sincerely think they are, then wouldn't you have a moral obligation to take up arms if necessary to keep America free and democratic?
 

Danoff

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I'm suggesting the Republicans may not be generally corrupt and trying to illegally gain power and illegally influence the next election. If you sincerely think they are, then wouldn't you have a moral obligation to take up arms if necessary to keep America free and democratic?

I know what you're suggesting. You're attempting to use fear of violence to argue against my point.
 

Dotini

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I know what you're suggesting. You're attempting to use fear of violence to argue against my point.
When I was protesting the Vietnam war, I took part in riots in which streets were barricaded, things were broken and/or set on fire, and some people including cops got roughed up. I had clear and firm beliefs, and I acted upon them, despite some risk. I don't really believe you think Republicans are mostly corrupt.
 

Danoff

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When I was protesting the Vietnam war, I took part in riots in which streets were barricaded, things were broken and/or set on fire, and some people including cops got roughed up. I had clear and firm beliefs, and I acted upon them, despite some risk. I don't really believe you think Republicans are mostly corrupt.

I think you meant to post this in the other thread, I'll take it there.
 

TenEightyOne

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Saw York Uni on the news tonight and I thought I'd add a clarification to one of the implications that Channel 4 made: it's normal to see Chinese students on and off campus in facemasks at any time, it's something they habitually do. York's very popular with the Chinese as both a study centre and as a tourist destination, very often you'll see whole groups of Chinese tourists in face masks. The news are presenting the pictures as a sort of Disease Lockdown scenario, but it really isn't.

With that said... I'm starting to feel a little more nervous having come down with a hacking cough and a slightly elevated temperature... and I was at the Uni of York Masters' graduations last week, a lot of families there had come from China for Computer Science awards. I've got the lurgey! :D
 
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Actually one of the biggest problems with getting accurate numbers on amount of total cases, recoveries/deaths is that the numbers are compiled just on the most serious cases that the people seek medical treatment.
There is no way to know how many possible thousands of cases are unreported as the symptoms or outcome may be no worse than a normal cold or normal flue in that individual.
I do not disagree with taking precautions as we learn more about this virus but it could well not be something that could become a major life threatening epidemic at this time as there just is not enough data or sample size to make that determination at this point.
 
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Someone remember that deagle forecast for 2025? :)
What if that virus wasnt made to shrink china.
What if they just have choosed china as start point for maximal spreading? :)

Prepare to die everyone HAHAHA!
 

McLaren

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Heard the first death outside of China has been reported in the Philippines. Patient showed signs of recovery before quickly turning for the worst.
 

TJ13

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So this is an interesting article I found.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/he...eadlier-more-widespread/ar-BBZyqgm?li=BBnba9O

Coronavirus is scary but it's not as deadly as the flu.
From the article "So far, there have been an estimated 19 million cases of flu, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths in the U.S. this influenza season"

So every year we should announce the Flu being a national emergency here in the US if that's the case?

Another confirmed case in the US in Mass.
Putting the US now at 8 confirmed cases.
 

Dennisch

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So this is an interesting article I found.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/he...eadlier-more-widespread/ar-BBZyqgm?li=BBnba9O

Coronavirus is scary but it's not as deadly as the flu.
From the article "So far, there have been an estimated 19 million cases of flu, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths in the U.S. this influenza season"

So every year we should announce the Flu being a national emergency here in the US if that's the case?

Another confirmed case in the US in Mass.
Putting the US now at 8 confirmed cases.

You need to be careful to be specific here and not try to compare a single virus (e.g. novel coronavirus 2019) to an entire family of viruses ('influenza') which comprises many different strains, each one with different properties. As such, comparisons between current 'flu' deaths and the outbreak of a new strain of coronavirus will only tell you so much - it is probably better to simply focus on the facts that pertain to the current outbreak rather than getting too hung up on comparisons that may not mean much.
 

Dotini

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This morning I have two new vocabulary words, Guangdong, on the border with Hong Kong, and Zhejiang. These provinces join Hubei as epicenters of the outbreak in China.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The good news is there has been only one reported death outside China, a 44 year old Chinese man in the Philippines.


Edit - bonus reference articles
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...ncov-more-infectious-sars-experts-have-doubts

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

Edit - Vid from Wuhan taken yesterday.
 
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TJ13

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@Dennisch and @Touring Mars

This is straight from CDC
"Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats."

So technically it is a "virus" but it's made up from other viruses. (Example like Influenza is also made up of other viruses but it's called the flu)

Edit: From the WHO
"Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans. "
 

Touring Mars

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@Dennisch and @Touring Mars

This is straight from CDC
"Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats."

So technically it is a "virus" but it's made up from other viruses. (Example like Influenza is also made up of other viruses but it's called the flu)

Edit: From the WHO
"Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans. "

Indeed.

But you are making the same mistake as @Dotini when you said "Coronavirus is scary but it is not as deadly as flu" (although I believe Dotini was actually making the opposite point).

You can't/should not compare a single strain of one virus family to an entire other family of viruses.

You can, however, compare specific strains of viruses to each other, and even compare one virus family to another, but not the above.

-

As for whether flu should be treated as an emergency every year... well, it is. But - there are vaccines and treatments available for known/existing viruses, which makes them much less deadly in terms of how many people who get infected die as a result of that infection.

But new strains of viruses appear all the time - and this is why flu remains such a major killer, and also why flu outbreaks are still very dangerous and unpredictable - as different strains have different properties, and existing vaccines may or may not be very effective against new strains.

In any case, I don't think there is much merit (at this point in time anyway) in comparing one family of viruses to another - it would be better to focus on how to deal with the current outbreak rather than trying to pretend like it is no big deal. It is.
 

TJ13

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As for whether flu should be treated as an emergency every year... well, it is. But - there are vaccines and treatments available for known/existing viruses, which makes them much less deadly in terms of how many people who get infected die as a result of that infection.

Yes while that is kinda true for influenza it does have a vaccine while nCoV does not, influenza can mutate just enough to make the vaccine ineffective.

In any situation there will always be some kind of virus out there that is going to be old but new.
Just depends on how much of a threat it ends up being will determine on how fast or slow a preventative measure is in place.

Now granted that being said,
Anyone can get anything and it can be deadly based off of other factors that isn't related to the virus itself.
So yes comparing apples to oranges isn't good but overall in a wide open situation based on just the reports we have to go by just shows that nCoV is less deadly than Influenza.
Now that being said,
The conditions of those who have died from nCoV if they were ill before or have compromised immunity or some other underlying issue that we don't hear makes it more like this is a huge threat for everyone when it could only be a case by case situation. (Now if a clean freak 100% doesn't do anything with anyone got it and died then yes that would really boost up the threat)

Not saying that this is something to not worry about it's just that I think we need more information and studies from those who have got it and those who have passed and see if it's the actual virus that did it or the complications from a different illness beforehand.
 

Touring Mars

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nCoV is less deadly than Influenza.
giphy.gif
 
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Rallywagon

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@Dennisch and @Touring Mars

This is straight from CDC
"Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats."

So technically it is a "virus" but it's made up from other viruses. (Example like Influenza is also made up of other viruses but it's called the flu)

Edit: From the WHO
"Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans. "
Just to further Mars point a touch further, all of the stats in the media right now are specifically about nCov, not SARS, not MERS, not the whole of the coronavirus family. The influenza stats on the other hand are tracking no less that 4 flu strains. The two main strains this year for influenza A are (N1H1)pdm09 amd H3N2 while influenza b is tracking that Yamagata lineage and the Voctoria lineage.
So you see the issue. Using influenza number alone, you are comparing probably more than 6 influenza strains with only 1 coronavirus strain.

Influenza numbers source
 

Dotini

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Indeed.

But you are making the same mistake as @Dotini when you said "Coronavirus is scary but it is not as deadly as flu" (although I believe Dotini was actually making the opposite point).

You can't/should not compare a single strain of one virus family to an entire other family of viruses.

You can, however, compare specific strains of viruses to each other, and even compare one virus family to another, but not the above.


-

As for whether flu should be treated as an emergency every year... well, it is. But - there are vaccines and treatments available for known/existing viruses, which makes them much less deadly in terms of how many people who get infected die as a result of that infection.

But new strains of viruses appear all the time - and this is why flu remains such a major killer, and also why flu outbreaks are still very dangerous and unpredictable - as different strains have different properties, and existing vaccines may or may not be very effective against new strains.

In any case, I don't think there is much merit (at this point in time anyway) in comparing one family of viruses to another - it would be better to focus on how to deal with the current outbreak rather than trying to pretend like it is no big deal. It is.

I honestly do not understand what mistake I am making. Could you specifically clarify, please? I want to stop making mistakes, and delete those I have already made. Should I delete all the charts and graphs in which the new virus is shown on the same chart as SARS?

Also, you say comparison of one family of viruses with another lacks merit, but focus on dealing with this outbreak has merit. Could you please give a good (model) example of a post that focuses on dealing with the outbreak, the kind of post you think we should be making? Thank you.
 

Rallywagon

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I honestly do not understand what mistake I am making. Could you specifically clarify, please? I want to stop making mistakes, and delete those I have already made.

Also, you say comparison of one family of viruses with another lacks merit, but focus on dealing with this outbreak has merit. Could you please give a good (model) example of a post that focuses on dealing with the outbreak, the kind of post you think we should be making? Thank you.
Ahemmmmmm.
Just to further Mars point a touch further, all of the stats in the media right now are specifically about nCov, not SARS, not MERS, not the whole of the coronavirus family. The influenza stats on the other hand are tracking no less that 4 flu strains. The two main strains this year for influenza A are (N1H1)pdm09 amd H3N2 while influenza b is tracking that Yamagata lineage and the Voctoria lineage.
So you see the issue. Using influenza number alone, you are comparing probably more than 6 influenza strains with only 1 coronavirus strain.

Influenza numbers source

Use the family to measure the family, or use a strain to measure a strain. Measuring the single nCov strain top the entire influenza family paints a terribly inaccurate picture
 

Dotini

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Ahemmmmmm.


Use the family to measure the family, or use a strain to measure a strain. Measuring the single nCov strain top the entire influenza family paints a terribly inaccurate picture
I will delete all my posts in which both novel coronavirus and flu appear. Okay?

Should I also delete all my posts in which nCoV and SARS are both charted?
 

Touring Mars

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I honestly do not understand what mistake I am making. Could you specifically clarify, please? I want to stop making mistakes, and delete those I have already made.
I thought we had already resolved it, but for the sake of clarity:

You were arguing that 2019-nCoV is 10 times more deadly than flu, but you were comparing a single strain of coronavirus (2019-nCoV) to multiple strains of influenza, which I was pointing out was not a sensible comparison.

TJ13 appears to be making the same mistake, and (perhaps predictably) is coming up with a similarly meaningless conclusion which is actually the opposite of yours, which is that 2019-nCoV is less deadly than flu. Go figure.

The take-home message is that comparing a single strain to an entire family of viruses is going to give you misleading or meaningless results.

A more useful thing to do would be to ask which virus strains and specific outbreaks of specific strains have similar properties to the current outbreak.

Dotini
Also, you say comparison of one family of viruses with another lacks merit
No. I said:

I don't think there is much merit (at this point in time anyway) in comparing one family of viruses to another

Of course it will be important and useful to compare key features of this outbreak to others, but the main issue at the moment is in dealing with how to contain this outbreak rather than wondering which set of viruses is worse than the other set.
 

Dotini

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The take-home message is that comparing a single strain to an entire family of viruses is going to give you misleading or meaningless results.

A more useful thing to do would be to ask which virus strains and specific outbreaks of specific strains have similar properties to the current outbreak.

Of course it will be important and useful to compare key features of this outbreak to others, but the main issue at the moment is in dealing with how to contain this outbreak rather than wondering which set of viruses is worse than the other set.
I am going to assume that it would be okay to compare the nCoV with SARS. Okay?

I am going to assume that it would be okay to speak/post of actions, measures, preparations and problems related to the containment of the outbreak. Okay?