COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

  • Thread starter baldgye
  • 13,234 comments
  • 551,107 views
Biggles
Has anyone come across a plausible explanation for what is going on in Germany? They have plenty of recorded coronavirus cases, but the mortality rate is at 6%, compared to Italy's which stands at 45%.
Click to expand...
I read your following post too that explains your numbers: those are hospital admission numbers (cured people number too). Hospitalized people has already reach a certain severity stage. Also, on the timeline of the disease evolution for each patient, it won't surprise you that "survivor" are counted later that "dead".
I stick to my initial explanation: Germany tested, a lot. And if you read my post regarding false positive/negative test consequence on large scale testing, data makes more sense: Germany is late on the calendar. Still, in the end, the high number of beds/inhabitant in Germany will be seen in death rate figures. Currently, Germany is receiving some French patient that Alsace region can't handle.
Regarding France Vs Italy, the health network are differents : Italian, like Chinese, are going to hospital more directly because they don't have a dense, if any network of proximity doctors. This network in France is handling most of the cases : each suspected Covid-19 patient can freely (actual cost is a 1€ franchise) have virtual visits via video to their usual doctor during the first symptoms days before rushing to hospital if needed.
Good to know too is that all deaths in retirement houses are not taking into account right now.

twitcher
I think that’s a pretty fair assessment. Even if it is just lazy journalisming as you say....now, of all times, is not the time for lazy journalisming. At the very least, people need to be aware that these are the standards CBS is operating to.
Click to expand...
It is common to use illustration image/footage when you don't have one that match exactly the information you still want to give, which often happens in breaking news scenario. There's no evidence of bad intent from a journalist (if any involved here), just a lack of ethic as the network should have a rule to write something on-screen like "archive images" or "illustrative footage".
 
Danoff
Sorry for spamming this thread with this story, but man... this is just so cool. A major medical tech company just giving away their product (the ventilator below) so that it can be made as fast as possible.
Click to expand...

This is what the world needs, it's great that people invent home made stuff for people to use, but something that already has its time in the field always will be better. Now let's see how fast companies will act on this. Can someone inform Elon to start producing?
 
Elon Musk is one of the few “billionaires” that I’ve seen really step up. People saw his “Coronavirus panic is dumb” tweet and thought he saw the whole thing as a hoax, when he was really just saying the panic is dumb, which it is. He was quite early to pledge help, and now seems to be following through.



Also, if I would have seen this in 2019, I would have thought it was parody. Not in 2020 though :lol:
 
Milouse
I read your following post too that explains your numbers: those are hospital admission numbers (cured people number too). Hospitalized people has already reach a certain severity stage. Also, on the timeline of the disease evolution for each patient, it won't surprise you that "survivor" are counted later that "dead".
I stick to my initial explanation: Germany tested, a lot. And if you read my post regarding false positive/negative test consequence on large scale testing, data makes more sense: Germany is late on the calendar. Still, in the end, the high number of beds/inhabitant in Germany will be seen in death rate figures. Currently, Germany is receiving some French patient that Alsace region can't handle.
Regarding France Vs Italy, the health network are differents : Italian, like Chinese, are going to hospital more directly because they don't have a dense, if any network of proximity doctors. This network in France is handling most of the cases : each suspected Covid-19 patient can freely (actual cost is a 1€ franchise) have virtual visits via video to their usual doctor during the first symptoms days before rushing to hospital if needed.
Good to know too is that all deaths in retirement houses are not taking into account right now.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry - I'm not sure I follow the meaning of your post? I could be wrong about this, but my tentative conclusion about the high deaths rates in Italy & Spain is that it is possibly largely circumstantial: that many people in their 70's, '80's & '90's (& there are a lot of them in Italy & Spain) were exposed to the virus by other family members before it was fully understood what was happening - before there was even a chance to apply testing.

Older people in France, Germany & other countries did not have the early, sudden exposure & were less likely to be living with younger generations & exposed to the virus by them. The slightly later arrival of the virus also resulted in more protective measures being taken through testing & isolation. From what I hear about the situation in Germany, the social isolating has not been particularly rigorous there. As my daughter is living in the Netherlands, I know for sure that it has not been rigorous there ... yet the mortality rate is much lower that that of Italy & Spain

It's important to know what has happened, because I think it influences the approach to controlling the virus in the US & other countries going forward. A mortality rate that mirrors what has been happening in Italy & Spain poses a different problem from one that mirrors what appears to be happening in Germany. So far, although the infection rate in New York City is very high, the mortality rates don't appear to be anything like what it has been in Italy.
 
Last edited:
This is an interesting stat. On March 10, New York and San Fransisco had roughly the same number of cases. Today, NY has 38,000 while SF has 374.

No idea what to make of that, but it’s interesting.

 
To me, this is one of the most telling stats.. deaths / 1Million population.

Depending of the response & circumstances the believable range seems to be somewhere around 2-300 for now. For the US this would mean a range up to 99 000 deaths.

--> were they predicting between 100k - 200k ? You'd need to multiply even the situation in Italy quite a few times.. I certainly hope this will not be the case (as I'm sure all do).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

upload_2020-3-31_8-5-44.png
 
Illinois is at 73 deaths as of 3/30 at 2:30 PM.

IHME was projecting 84 deaths at 3/30. We could be under the projections.

The increase in cases has dropped between 3/29 and 3/30. Don't know what that means, potentially less tests?
 
twitcher
This is an interesting stat. On March 10, New York and San Fransisco had roughly the same number of cases. Today, NY has 38,000 while SF has 374.

No idea what to make of that, but it’s interesting.

Click to expand...

IIRC, San Francisco was the first city to go on a major quarantine & I think they've stuck to it ever since.

Edit* I know one member shared a person re-counting their experience as a patient in the hospital. This is from a local resident whose mother was one of 2 that added to our city's death toll a couple days ago. She said the virus almost immediately took her 81 year old mother's life and she was not allowed any last-contact.
Understand this.....Cathy took our mother to the ER at the hospital. They took mother too an ER Room then...- they made Cathy leave without saying goodbye to mother - only one person could go. They told her to get her purse and get out. She didn’t get to tell her bye - find out what room she would be admitted or placed in - NOTHING. The nurses called us every few hours with updates. Until they called and said she was in her final stage of life. When asked if just ONE of us could come up to be with mom - the answer “no exceptions.” The nurse called about an hour later to tell us mom was gone and that SHE - a stranger, as kind as she was - was next to OUR mother when she passed. The funeral home picked mom up. Took her to the funeral home. We can not see her. Not from a distant - NO FINAL GOODBYE - NO NOTHING. We don’t even know what clothes our mother will be buried in. We had to buy her casket over the phone. It’s white. That’s all we know. On Monday the funeral home will drive her casket to the gates of DFW National Cemetery. The funeral director will move her casket from his vehicle to the cemetery’s vehicle. They will go straight to daddy’s grave and lower mother in. They will cover it with dirt. There will be no beautiful flowers placed over her grave, people, songs, or tears as she is lowered. THEN 3 hours later WE - her daughters - will be able to “drive by” and look at the grave. THIS IS WHAT LOSING SOMEONE TO COVID-19 looks like. Oh and when you see the stats on TV about the number of deaths - OUR MOTHER IS NOW ONE OF THOSE STATISTICS. All you idiots denying it exists or not following guidelines- should have to walk in OUR shoes. Thank GOD the nurse had a kind heart and shed tears with us as she consoled our mother as she died. I just wish it could have been us instead.
Click to expand...
Note that a lot of her frustration comes from losing her son 2 weeks prior from something else.
 
Last edited:
Timppaq
To me, this is one of the most telling stats.. deaths / 1Million population.

Depending of the response & circumstances the believable range seems to be somewhere around 2-300 for now. For the US this would mean a range up to 99 000 deaths.

--> were they predicting between 100k - 200k ? You'd need to multiply even the situation in Italy quite a few times.. I certainly hope this will not be the case (as I'm sure all do).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

View attachment 904287
Click to expand...

The deaths/million in Italy currently stands at 192, but it's sure to end up much higher before the virus is brought totally under control. So, it's possible that the US could end up with 100,000 deaths. However, it doesn't seem very likely that the US will end up with the proportion of deaths experienced by Italy & Spain. If they ended up with a mortality rate like Germany, there would be far fewer deaths than 100,000. What I wonder about the US is what effect will higher levels of obesity have, & a more decentralized, for-profit healthcare system that doesn't necessarily provide uniform services to all of its citizens?

From the BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-u...-us-death-rates-v-china-italy-and-south-korea
 
Last edited:
Good to see a 4th successive day of a decline in the growth rate of new cases of coronavirus in the USA...

I reckon that is enough to be able to say that restrictions are having a positive effect.
 
TexRex
It amazes me how people can so easily forget how catastrophically the Obama administration mishandled the Ebola outbreak in the United States. It was so bad that someone in the media actually referred to President Obama himself as "Barack Ebola" and it even led to eleven people in this country receiving treatment for the disease.
Click to expand...

I guess it's kinda like how many people see (former) President Bush now as this funny old guy who had some silly selfies with Ellen. Not someone who went to war illegally and caused the death of thousands of innocent people, based on some confused notion of revenge....
 
Biggles
I'm sorry - I'm not sure I follow the meaning of your post? I could be wrong about this, but my tentative conclusion about the high deaths rates in Italy & Spain is that it is possibly largely circumstantial: that many people in their 70's, '80's & '90's
Click to expand...
I can imagine why you don't see the meaning of my post: i don't arg about the meaning of the data, i contest the quality of the data and the idea that we can rely on them.
Was it plan that you daughter stays in NL after visiting university?

Another exemple here:
Timppaq
To me, this is one of the most telling stats.. deaths / 1Million population.
Click to expand...
Lombardy* death/million is 676 to date, Calabria is 15.
Considering Italy, or any other country at this stage is just making an arbitrary composite dataset. Virus doesn't care about frontiers.
*: For context, Lombardy GDP per Capita is more than the double of Calabria. Lombardy is also known to be one of the most connected European region with China and have since investigated past (before the surge) severe pneumonia cases to find they were actually undetected Covid-19 cases.​
 
Milouse
Lombardy* death/million is 676 to date, Calabria is 15.
Considering Italy, or any other country at this stage is just making an arbitrary composite dataset. Virus doesn't care about frontiers.
*: For context, Lombardy GDP per Capita is more than the double of Calabria. Lombardy is also known to be one of the most connected European region with China and have since investigated past (before the surge) severe pneumonia cases to find they were actually undetected Covid-19 cases.​
Click to expand...

Using current situations in different countries give snippets of the events in different phases. These snippets have a clear definition in many different ways. So I don't see this as arbitrary at all. Maybe you do (and it's totally fine by me).

edit, meanwhile in Helsinki

56866124-1118x629.jpg
 
Last edited:
UKMikey
I take it you're satirising the Trumpist crap that sometimes turns up in my Facebook feed like this gem from a local birther I know. :indiff:
Click to expand...
My apologies, my previous response was to having read this as asking if my Facebook feed includes crap like that. I normally pay more attention to the posts to which I'm replying, but my mother in-law was walking through the door as I was composing the first half of the post and reading your question.

To answer what you actually asked, yes, I suppose I was. I was being facetious at the very least.
 
A veterinary from Haute-Savoie region in France just asked people to stop washing their pet with javel or hydro alcoholic gel. She report cases of cats in alcoholic coma, as they licked the substance. It also burn pet's skin.
(source, in french)

Famine
Quarantine does.
Click to expand...
Quarantine redefines frontiers. My door is one.

Timppaq
Using current situations in different countries give snippets of the events in different phases.
Click to expand...
Situations are different from area to area in those countries, so they are at different stages. The virus spread mostly by neighboring contact past the initial area contamination by bridging (travel). You could pick random areas and group them in an arbitrary way, you wouldn't get much significant data. This will change once the virus will have made its way through all areas.
 
Milouse
Quarantine redefines frontiers.
Click to expand...
It also enforces them. Borders may be arbitrary lines in the sand (or the mountains), but they become real, physical barriers when enforced. The virus may not care but it doesn't spread by itself, people spread it. With quarantines, people can't spread it, and borders are relevant.

It's entirely apt to compare country to country for infection and death rates, based on their responses within their borders.
 
Famine
It's entirely apt to compare country to country for infection and death rates, based on their responses within their borders.
Click to expand...
Yes, but with lot of reserves and AFTER the infection, not during it. As for quarantine, it can differs in date (both absolute and relative to virus spreading) from area to area inside a given country. At the start of the quarantine in some regions of Italy, there were more travel between France and Italy than between those quarantined regions and other regions in Italy. A soccer match in Lyon was even opened to Juventus supporters as other area in Italy were lockdown. We're seing the same quarantine granularity in other countries all over the world.
 
Milouse
Yes, but with lot of reserves and AFTER the infection, not during it.
Click to expand...
Definitely also during it - otherwise how would you know what the effects of quarantine actually are?

Tracking spread (time to doubling for both infections and deaths) during quarantine by comparison to no quarantine is perfectly appropriate, both within a region (before and during) and across regions.
 
Liquid
Orban is a dictator-in-waiting with delusions of grandeur and arrogance in spades. In fact, he's been waiting for this, any kind of pretext, to consolidate power. :indiff:

I would tell the United States to, uh... watch out.
Click to expand...

"Sweet are the uses of adversity"
- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, Act 2, Scene 1​
 
Milouse
Situations are different from area to area in those countries, so they are at different stages.
Click to expand...
That is what I said. :)


Milouse
You could pick random areas and group them in an arbitrary way, you wouldn't get much significant data. This will change once the virus will have made its way through all areas.
Click to expand...
Why would anybody do that? I don't understand.

Countries on the other hand are people grouped in known circumstances and under known response. This makes data from different countries in any phase in time very interesting to me.
 
Timppaq
Countries on the other hand are people grouped in known circumstances and under known response. This makes data from different countries in any phase in time very interesting to me.
Click to expand...
What would be interesting to me is a comparison of countries in which wearing masks is acceptable and routine, and those which are culturally averse to wearing masks.

Not having a mask available to buy on a shelf is no excuse for not wearing a makeshift mask. At the dollar store or hobby lobby, you can buy bandanas five for a $3. Of course sewing is almost a forgotten technology.

FYI
https://www.deccanherald.com/nation...are-70-effective-against-covid-19-819650.html

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670104004797
 
Last edited:

Latest Posts

Back