True, and the BBC did at least make it clear that the decision will actually be taken in parliament on the 12th... but I can't see how Johnson or the idiot Tories will change their minds, even though they really should.
Johnson's main argument seems to be 'If we don't lift restrictions now, when will we lift them?' - that seems totally spurious to me. Lifting restrictions when a new, more transmissible variant is already in the country is a gamble - but when that variant is already totally dominant and already widespread is pure lunacy.
They will learn the hard way though - less pain now, more pain later seems to be Johnson's mantra on just about everything, and COVID is clearly no exception.
Indeed, that is a spurious argument. School holiday isn't, nor summer generally, nor is the milestone of all over-18s having been offered their first jab. Not saying they balance out the increased risks from nightclubs etc at all, but they should each help quite a bit. Having a wave over summer is almost certainly better than having one in the autumn, but we could just end up with both.
So we'll still see cases rising, but we can't predict what rate they'll rise at, or for how long. Before the 19th things could change - even now it's not exactly clear what rate cases are increasing by (50%? or 70%?) or when that will settle down before dropping off. Sooner or later it will drop off, so we just have to estimate the damage (in admissions and long covid) until it does.
Admissions are still not increasing at the same rate as cases (regardless of lag). That may change, but since we can't explain why that rate is lower we can't guess at reasons why it would increase. If it carries on increasing at about 25%/week then admissions will double every 3 weeks - not great but manageable if cases start to drop off within about 6 weeks.
Cases in most age groups are increasing, but in over 25 age groups it's not at an alarming rate. It really does appear to be the most social ages causing the majority of the spread (plus a bunch but quite a bit less now in secondary school kids), and mostly keeping it amongst themselves. I have to say that if most of the cases are from optional behaviour like football matches, parties, etc then my sympathy level regarding their risk of long covid is somewhat diminished, but not enough data on that to say.
I don't anticipate 'test and trace' doing anything significantly useful. Surge testing etc seems to have been effective when we just had a few hotspots but we just won't be able to sustain that nationwide. Again 'seems' - we've no idea what an unrestricted wave actually looks like compared to the models (clearly worse than a restricted wave, but by how much?).
Well, that's kind of a summary of my thoughts rather than a big argument against your post
That comes here...
Predicting the path of this wave is a fool's game. Just as Boris is only hoping that things will go ok thanks to vaccination, the view that some number of cases equates to some number of admissions and deaths (even if at a different ratio due to vacccination) is also too simplistic and flawed. Further, keeping restrictions as they are now would do nothing to reduce the wave, so a case would have to be made for increasing restrictions. That's hard to do unless/until admissions get quite high.
Overall though my "don't know" level is about as high as it's ever been apart from at the very start of this. I don't feel able to advocate for any of the three options (open/same/more) with any real conviction, and that's without even looking at the economic angle.
It needs to be made very clear by the government that your right to ask another person to wear a mask outranks their right to not wear a mask. If a bus, venue, household or organisation asks you to put a mask on, that must mean you wear a mask. I don't like this current announcement, because there are going to be so many snotty people going around with the "uhh, I don't have to wear a mask if I don't want to" sneezing COVID around the old-people's home or on the apples at the supermarket. Yes, take mandatory mask wearing away, but don't take away the rules which allow people to ask/force others to wear them in places where some companies or people might not want anti-maskers to walk in and spread the disease around.
I'd like Whitty and Valance to lay it out as an official recommendation to wear masks on public transport, when shopping, and other indoor places where people mix. The beating around the bush saying where
they might still wear a mask was painful to watch. A medical recommendation isn't law in any way, but it would help enable people to wear one with less fear of assault or abuse, or for a venue etc to demand one for entry. It would also remind people that this is ongoing, and that alone would affect our behaviour enough to make a useful difference.
