COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)
- Thread starter baldgye
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- 28,414
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
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- Rule 12
- GTP_Famine
Looks like you spoke too soon on that one.
andrea
(Banned)
- 5,858
- Japan
- virtualnao
Hold onto your butts.
apnews.com
At least 100 US athletes unvaccinated as Olympics begin
About 100 of the 613 U.S. athletes descending on Tokyo for the Olympics are unvaccinated, the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee’s medical chief said hours before Friday night’s Opening Ceremony.
apnews.com
- 7,811
- Leiria
- jpfctf
- jpfctf
It was time for that second shot today.
Fortunately, the process was now much quicker and organized than the first time. Took me just 50 minutes.
On the other hand, this shot hurt like hell (I didn't even feel the first one) and my arm's already sore... The nurse must have been the local butcher's daughter.
- 2,677
- UK
- Outspacer
On the need for booster doses...
Israel's Health Ministry has released some data on waning Pfizer vaccine protection from infection and transmission. Down to 39% overall against Delta is the main figure being reported, which is notably lower than the 65% or so seen in the UK. John Campbell's video yesterday has a breakdown of it by when people were vaccinated: those vaccinated in January, 16%; February, 44%; March, 67%; April, 75% (taken from this news article he links to. I had a quick look for the report but couldn't find it - perhaps not available in english yet).
Protection against serious disease remains high at 86% (for those vaccinated in January).
(segment is ~7 minutes from 2:20)
One thing John doesn't talk about in that video but occurred to me was this: clearly when comparing to the UK and pondering on what it means for us, we'd have to consider the gap between doses. Particularly whether an 8 to 12 week gap will give longer lasting protection than the 3 week gap used in Israel, the US, and most of Europe. Studies have shown increased immune response after a longer gap (example) and, although it's too soon to know, we could reasonably hope for longevity to be improved also.
His video today has further detail on the findings (handily also given in the description), and he goes on to speculate about the gap between doses. But what he misses is that, mainly because of the larger gap, people in the UK have had far less time since their second dose, and therefore comparison shouldn't be to the overall %s coming out of Israel and perhaps not even the latest month for which figures are given (i.e. those vaccinated in Israel in April could possibly be compared to those in the UK who had their second dose in April, but otherwise the data is incomparable). It will be at least 3 months before we have similar data for longevity in the UK, and even then it will be limited to mostly those aged over 65. Otherwise, his points regarding the implications for the US are valid, and presumably apply to most of Europe as well.
On cases decreasing in the UK...
I'd be quite surprised if we don't have a pulse of cases stemming from Silverstone. Is it a little odd that we haven't started to see it already? It was 140k people vs the 60k at Wembley the weekend before. Dunno - perhaps attendance at the events themselves isn't as much of a problem as the number of people getting together to watch on telly.
Dr Kit Yates, in yesterday's indie_SAGE presentation, came up with a few reasons beyond the list @Touring Mars gave a couple of days ago, but I think most of the extras are a bit of a reach - particularly the notion that people are not bothering to get tested. I'm sure that happens, but there isn't any solid reason to suspect there's been a significant change in the number, although testing is down slightly (~5%). He also mentioned people exercising caution, which of course I agree has an effect.
Anyway, as a drinking game - every time he says "if it's genuine" about the fall!
(segment is ~5 minutes from 2:31)
I'd say - with the benefit of two days more data confirming it - the fall is genuine, and it's certainly very different to where we'd be had the previous upward trend continued - fewer than half the number of cases as were expected. But this weekend we've got the real test of restrictions being removed, with nightclubs, festivals, facesucking, etc, all going ahead unrestrained.
(UK dashboard hasn't been updated yet with today's figures: "Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today's update is delayed". So I may update this post when they appear.) EDITED to add today's case numbers and call it two days more data since Kit's presentation.
Israel's Health Ministry has released some data on waning Pfizer vaccine protection from infection and transmission. Down to 39% overall against Delta is the main figure being reported, which is notably lower than the 65% or so seen in the UK. John Campbell's video yesterday has a breakdown of it by when people were vaccinated: those vaccinated in January, 16%; February, 44%; March, 67%; April, 75% (taken from this news article he links to. I had a quick look for the report but couldn't find it - perhaps not available in english yet).
Protection against serious disease remains high at 86% (for those vaccinated in January).
(segment is ~7 minutes from 2:20)
One thing John doesn't talk about in that video but occurred to me was this: clearly when comparing to the UK and pondering on what it means for us, we'd have to consider the gap between doses. Particularly whether an 8 to 12 week gap will give longer lasting protection than the 3 week gap used in Israel, the US, and most of Europe. Studies have shown increased immune response after a longer gap (example) and, although it's too soon to know, we could reasonably hope for longevity to be improved also.
His video today has further detail on the findings (handily also given in the description), and he goes on to speculate about the gap between doses. But what he misses is that, mainly because of the larger gap, people in the UK have had far less time since their second dose, and therefore comparison shouldn't be to the overall %s coming out of Israel and perhaps not even the latest month for which figures are given (i.e. those vaccinated in Israel in April could possibly be compared to those in the UK who had their second dose in April, but otherwise the data is incomparable). It will be at least 3 months before we have similar data for longevity in the UK, and even then it will be limited to mostly those aged over 65. Otherwise, his points regarding the implications for the US are valid, and presumably apply to most of Europe as well.
On cases decreasing in the UK...
Thankfully, that didn't happen. 'Only' 36k UK cases (England 33k) reported yesterday, and 32k (England 29k) today, continuing a downward trend from the peak last Saturday of 55k (England 51k). Sort of. We know that reports are usually lower on Monday/Tuesday reflecting reduced testing at weekends. Allowing for that, what's left is a clearer downward trend - but much shorter, only a few days long. Overall it's just as reasonable to see this week as a plateau at about 40k, albeit considerably lower than that peak.
I'd be quite surprised if we don't have a pulse of cases stemming from Silverstone. Is it a little odd that we haven't started to see it already? It was 140k people vs the 60k at Wembley the weekend before. Dunno - perhaps attendance at the events themselves isn't as much of a problem as the number of people getting together to watch on telly.
Dr Kit Yates, in yesterday's indie_SAGE presentation, came up with a few reasons beyond the list @Touring Mars gave a couple of days ago, but I think most of the extras are a bit of a reach - particularly the notion that people are not bothering to get tested. I'm sure that happens, but there isn't any solid reason to suspect there's been a significant change in the number, although testing is down slightly (~5%). He also mentioned people exercising caution, which of course I agree has an effect.
Anyway, as a drinking game - every time he says "if it's genuine" about the fall!
(segment is ~5 minutes from 2:31)
I'd say - with the benefit of two days more data confirming it - the fall is genuine, and it's certainly very different to where we'd be had the previous upward trend continued - fewer than half the number of cases as were expected. But this weekend we've got the real test of restrictions being removed, with nightclubs, festivals, facesucking, etc, all going ahead unrestrained.
(UK dashboard hasn't been updated yet with today's figures: "Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today's update is delayed". So I may update this post when they appear.) EDITED to add today's case numbers and call it two days more data since Kit's presentation.
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- 28,414
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
Also saw those comments from Kit Yates yesterday and even asked a question about what they think of the numbers from Scotland, but no reply... I also think it is likely to be "genuine", and even though that doesn't mean crack open the champagne just yet, it would be staggering if it were true and continues.
Christina Pagel and others are right to be skeptical but on the other hand they are clearly also cautiously optimistic and acknowledge that the case numbers and hospitalisations are (and hopefully will continue to be) on the turn in favour of a better outcome. My hunch is pretty much what you (@Outspacer) alluded to before insomuch as immunity from prior infections and innate immunity could be higher than testing for anitbodies can tell, and hence we may be closer to herd immunity or even there already. Let's hope so.
Christina Pagel and others are right to be skeptical but on the other hand they are clearly also cautiously optimistic and acknowledge that the case numbers and hospitalisations are (and hopefully will continue to be) on the turn in favour of a better outcome. My hunch is pretty much what you (@Outspacer) alluded to before insomuch as immunity from prior infections and innate immunity could be higher than testing for anitbodies can tell, and hence we may be closer to herd immunity or even there already. Let's hope so.
- 2,677
- UK
- Outspacer
I'm not particularly optimistic on hospitalisations, TBH. The latest ONS report (which uses data up to 17th July) shows prevalence amongst the 35-49 age group increased from 0.7% to 1.2% since the previous report, and from 0.5% to 0.6% in the 50-65 age group. If what we have is a wave that's not only spreading geographically but upwards through age groups, it's not likely to go well (even if the case numbers overall are reducing). As I noted before, these particular age groups have predominantly had AstraZeneca.
OTOH, yes @Touring Mars, herd immunity of some description may be closer than we thought. Fingers crossed.
OTOH, yes @Touring Mars, herd immunity of some description may be closer than we thought. Fingers crossed.
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FPV MIC
Premium
- 4,190
- Australia
- GT-MIC
There's plenty of idiots here in Australia too 
www.theguardian.com
And while I'm on the subject.
I know it's not a contest but I'm also not sure why the Eastern states of Australia think that Victoria came up with the idea of snap lockdowns. If they had been using them like WA, SA, NT and Queensland (and many other parts of the world) they possibly wouldn't have had a second wave. Gladbags has just taken things to a whole new level of stupid!
Anti-lockdown protests across Australia as Covid cases surge to record levels in Sydney
Chaotic scenes in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane as protesters demand end to lockdowns
And while I'm on the subject.
I know it's not a contest but I'm also not sure why the Eastern states of Australia think that Victoria came up with the idea of snap lockdowns. If they had been using them like WA, SA, NT and Queensland (and many other parts of the world) they possibly wouldn't have had a second wave. Gladbags has just taken things to a whole new level of stupid!
- 1,937
- Adelaide
Worth nothing that this was Gladys' response (NSW Premier) to Victoria asking for more vaccines during their previous outbreak:There's plenty of idiots here in Australia too
View attachment 1069526
Anti-lockdown protests across Australia as Covid cases surge to record levels in Sydney
Chaotic scenes in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane as protesters demand end to lockdowns
And while I'm on the subject.View attachment 1069527View attachment 1069528
I know it's not a contest but I'm also not sure why the Eastern states of Australia think that Victoria came up with the idea of snap lockdowns. If they had been using them like WA, SA, NT and Queensland (and many other parts of the world) they possibly wouldn't have had a second wave. Gladbags has just taken things to a whole new level of stupid!
The arrogance is astounding.
- 28,414
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
I had a funny (if somewhat depressing) moment today.
A girl comes into our lab to do measurements and I've spoken with her many times, normally about her work but sometimes just for a chat.
Today I left the building to get a coffee and we passed each other by, but she didn't recognise me and, although I pretty much knew it was her, my brain didn't allow me to fully register it was her until she had passed by already.
We've never seen each other without a mask on, and to make matters worse, I was also wearing shades so she completely didn't recognise me, but I was also surprised at how different she looked with her mask off to what my brain must think she looked like...
A girl comes into our lab to do measurements and I've spoken with her many times, normally about her work but sometimes just for a chat.
Today I left the building to get a coffee and we passed each other by, but she didn't recognise me and, although I pretty much knew it was her, my brain didn't allow me to fully register it was her until she had passed by already.
We've never seen each other without a mask on, and to make matters worse, I was also wearing shades so she completely didn't recognise me, but I was also surprised at how different she looked with her mask off to what my brain must think she looked like...
Joey D
Premium
- 46,710
- Boyne Falls, MI
- GTP_Joey
- GTP Joey
A new study shows that mixing AstraZeneca and Pfizer works, which is good news as boosters are likely a thing in the near future.
www.reuters.com
Mixed AstraZeneca-Pfizer shot boosts COVID antibody level - study
A mixed vaccination of first AstraZeneca (AZN.L) and then a Pfizer (PFE.N) COVID-19 shot boosted neutralizing antibody levels by six times compared with two AstraZeneca doses, a study from South Korea showed.
Danoff
Premium
- 33,001
- Mile High City
I ran into a neighbor at the store during the pandemic. I was wearing wrap-around clear glasses and a mask, and he didn't recognize me at all. Thank goodness, I hate that guy.
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- 2,677
- UK
- Outspacer
Reported cases fell again today in the UK, to 24,950.
No doubt partly due to fewer tests over the weekend, but still, it's around 1/4 of where cases looked like they were going.
Earlier modeling was predicting a peak in July even with the delayed step 4, so maybe this is it. However, more recent modeling predicts a peak in August.
Could go either way from here, but, if cases do start increasing at least it's starting from a lower level.
No doubt partly due to fewer tests over the weekend, but still, it's around 1/4 of where cases looked like they were going.
Earlier modeling was predicting a peak in July even with the delayed step 4, so maybe this is it. However, more recent modeling predicts a peak in August.
Could go either way from here, but, if cases do start increasing at least it's starting from a lower level.
- 28,414
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
I went to check out the possibility of using an instrument in a different department last Thursday, only to find that the technician in charge had been 'pinged' by the COVID alert app and was self-isolating as a precaution before getting himself tested. He has since developed COVID and was apparently quite unwell over the weekend (young guy in his 20's) and so it is probably just as well he wasn't there on Thursday, as even though I am double-vaxxed, I still don't fancy catching the Delta variant. This is the first time I've heard of someone being pinged prior to them finding out they were infected, so I'm very glad that it has possibly helped me dodge a bullet.
Yeh, I think we could see a 'splitting' of what has thus far been completely overlapped peaks - it would be interesting to do a plot of all cases by age group across the whole previous (Xmas 2020) and current waves and see what happens in the next few weeks with relative numbers of younger age groups, but it is really difficult to say with much certainty what is likely to happen this summer.Reported cases fell again today in the UK, to 24,950.
No doubt partly due to fewer tests over the weekend, but still, it's around 1/4 of where cases looked like they were going.
Earlier modeling was predicting a peak in July even with the delayed step 4, so maybe this is it. However, more recent modeling predicts a peak in August.
Could go either way from here, but, if cases do start increasing at least it's starting from a lower level.
- 2,677
- UK
- Outspacer
I think the best we can get hold of with an age breakdown is the ONS reports, e.g. 8th Jan, 5th Feb, etc. Bit of a pain to stitch multiple together since the latest data on each is subject to revision. But from the 5th Feb one we can at least see that cases lingered on more in older age groups, and there was an odd hump of cases in the youngest and the 35-49 groups around 19th Jan.
Most modeling does apparently take into account age groups and vaccination level in each, etc, etc - so I'm not sure why their output is essentially clean bell curves!
Smart guy.
If only every single person did what he did, the pandemic would not have been this bad.
Every normal person doesn't want that.
The owner of a small groceries store went on vacation to France. He and his wife came back home Saturday 17. He is not vaccinated, he didn't go in quarantine and opened his shop the next Monday. I confronted him and he said: I'm not sick". He assumes that his immune system is strong and good enough to not get sick. He also said that even if he was contagious he would not make other people sick.
I had to tell him that even if he's asymptomatic he still can transmit the bug to others. Luckily he believed me. I saw him again today and he is still fine.
I mean, egocentric people and non SARS2 believers are the reason the pandemic isn't over yet.
Joey D
Premium
- 46,710
- Boyne Falls, MI
- GTP_Joey
- GTP Joey
Things are going swimmingly here...
www.reuters.com
Also, Republican's gonna Republican:
In Utah, hospitals swell with unvaccinated COVID-19 patients
The COVID-19 intensive care unit where nurse Janine Roberts works in a Salt Lake City suburb is once again full, with patients who are mostly young, mostly unvaccinated and very ill.
Also, Republican's gonna Republican:
