- 21,593
- NJ/USA
- Blitzbay
I mean, this is Trump in general, but especially Trump now with his cabinet of idiots.
Israel - Palestine discussion thread
- Thread starter Beeblebrox237
- 3,646 comments
- 254,762 views
- 14,000
- Adelaide
- Neomone
This is just Iraq and "Weapons of Mass Destruction" all over again. They need an excuse to do what they are going to do anyway. This is the cover story they're going with, because even though it's clearly bollocks it's the sort of bollocks that's pretty difficult to immediately disprove and includes just enough scary buzzwords and concepts for a lot of people to switch the logic part of their brains off.
Let's be honest, Israel has learned from watching the US. It's just that they're way more mask off about what they're doing.
I don't think it's a trap if the target is fully informed and actively agrees to go along with it. Trump is stupid, and Hegseth is very stupid, but there are people in government that know what's going on and will tell them. They will join in with Israel not because they're misinformed about Netanyahu's intentions, but because they want what he wants. They want a war with Iran. They want a Palestinian genocide. They want a greater conflict in the Middle East, and if it were to turn into a World War they'd be happy with that too.
Because it's all stuff they can use to help push their own goals. Trump doesn't give a **** about nation building or other people dying, he'll just see an opportunity for him to spout some more ******** in a chaotic situation and do more stuff without asking.
- 29,805
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
I reckon this is spot on.
I reckon, though, that Iran is not only close to developing a nuclear weapon, but is hell-bent on doing so - so although Israel is using this as a pretext, it is not an illegitimate one.
But - Israel, like Iran - has no interest in making peace with the other; and while that situation persists, peace talks were always likely (if not certain) to fail. Netanyahu is pre-empting this by not even bothering with peace talks at all, and has been paving the way for this opportunity for years - and now, with Trump in the White House, it is coming to pass, and I don't see how this is going to end well for anyone, but especially Iran.
- 21,593
- NJ/USA
- Blitzbay
It might end with the ayatollah and his proxy armies falling apart, but it also might allow for a power vacuum where another one replaces the ayatollah.
- 14,000
- Adelaide
- Neomone
If they weren't building one then this will make sure that they definitely are. The way that Iran has been backed into a corner by the US and Israel leaves them no options.
I think this has been the plan since Trump blew up the JCPOA. It's not that Iran is necessarily a threat, it's that they've decided to make sure that Iran's choices are to be a threat or die. Which is ********, because once again most of the problems with Iran can be traced pretty directly to US meddling.
- 12,142
- Marin County
I only wish there was a way for both Netanyahu and Khamenei to lose. The middle east is in a constant state of war because* of the psychotic lunatics who think their version of the region is the only acceptable one.
*well, that and the long shadow of western intervention and resource scarcity...
*well, that and the long shadow of western intervention and resource scarcity...
- 30,511
- Bratvegas
It's a rare occurance but a double obituary would be an excellent result.
- 12,142
- Marin County
Well, if the current stability holds, here is my tally on the "12 day war":
Winner: Donald Trump. Established himself as the only player with any ability to shape the events in the region. I think he's fishing for a Nobel prize which probably influenced how he went about the conflict. Significant battlefield successes with no losses and no entanglement. I don't think he truly accomplished much, but I also don't think this whole war accomplished much either. The showman did his thing, and I wouldn't be surprised if even the most reluctant MAGA supporters were pleased with the result.
Winner: Netanyahu. Clearly had the upper hand throughout the conflict and achieved tactical victory. As I said above, I don't think the war truly accomplished anything because I don't believe that Iran was about to build a nuclear bomb, and I don't think Iran posed any immediate threat to Israel with it's allies so battered. I see this mostly as a domestic audience performative war rather than something truly seeking strategic benefit.
Winner: Islamic Republic. They took a beating, but managed to keep swinging until the end, landing some serious hits on their arch nemesis, which is somewhat impressive considering the huge gulf in technology and equipment. The fact that the regime survived is a win for them, which is unfortunate.
Neutral: Israeli people. They definitely took some hits, but will come out of it just fine other than the continual degradation of their popularity/image on the world stage.
Loser: Iranian people. They took the brunt of the conflict, and will be no better of than they were before. Possibly worse off if the regime takes out their frustration on their own people under the guise of purging informants, which is a definite possibility.
Loser: China & Russia - They did not have much ability to shape the conflict, but they didn't try very hard, which brings me to...
edit: It should be said that Russian AA systems were completely ineffective against American aircraft in this conflict, which is also pretty bad news for Russia, and apparently they are fairly concerned about it.
Biggest Loser: Europe - Frantic diplomacy that was utterly disregarded. I think Europe's stature as a world player takes a significant hit here. They completely failed to shape the events of the war despite trying pretty damn hard, and Trump danced on top of them to boot.
Winner: Donald Trump. Established himself as the only player with any ability to shape the events in the region. I think he's fishing for a Nobel prize which probably influenced how he went about the conflict. Significant battlefield successes with no losses and no entanglement. I don't think he truly accomplished much, but I also don't think this whole war accomplished much either. The showman did his thing, and I wouldn't be surprised if even the most reluctant MAGA supporters were pleased with the result.
Winner: Netanyahu. Clearly had the upper hand throughout the conflict and achieved tactical victory. As I said above, I don't think the war truly accomplished anything because I don't believe that Iran was about to build a nuclear bomb, and I don't think Iran posed any immediate threat to Israel with it's allies so battered. I see this mostly as a domestic audience performative war rather than something truly seeking strategic benefit.
Winner: Islamic Republic. They took a beating, but managed to keep swinging until the end, landing some serious hits on their arch nemesis, which is somewhat impressive considering the huge gulf in technology and equipment. The fact that the regime survived is a win for them, which is unfortunate.
Neutral: Israeli people. They definitely took some hits, but will come out of it just fine other than the continual degradation of their popularity/image on the world stage.
Loser: Iranian people. They took the brunt of the conflict, and will be no better of than they were before. Possibly worse off if the regime takes out their frustration on their own people under the guise of purging informants, which is a definite possibility.
Loser: China & Russia - They did not have much ability to shape the conflict, but they didn't try very hard, which brings me to...
edit: It should be said that Russian AA systems were completely ineffective against American aircraft in this conflict, which is also pretty bad news for Russia, and apparently they are fairly concerned about it.
Biggest Loser: Europe - Frantic diplomacy that was utterly disregarded. I think Europe's stature as a world player takes a significant hit here. They completely failed to shape the events of the war despite trying pretty damn hard, and Trump danced on top of them to boot.
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- 21,593
- NJ/USA
- Blitzbay
If Trump truly didn't take out the nuclear weapons program, as they are starting to report he might have only delayed things by a few months, then I'd say neither Israel nor Trump won. The Islamic Republic, however, does win because Trump utterly failed at his objective and Israel was basically told to stop. TACO Trump could always just start another bombing plan.
- 89,168
- Rule 12
- GTP_Famine
MOP's capabilities were well-known, reported as 60m of earth or 18m of 5,000psi reinforced concrete. Iran put the Fordow facility 80m underground and had developed reinforced concrete rated to 40,000psi - or better than one (30,000lb) MOP per square inch.
They may have delivered two-or-more down each hole (the satellite images look like six holes, so two per hole), but it'd probably take quite a bit more than that - especially if the facility comprised shells of UHPC.
- 12,142
- Marin County
I think this is why Trump immediately declared the operation a success, because it has to be a success, regardless of reality. I should have qualified my score tally post as "preliminary" because if Fordow survives intact, then the Islamic Public is possibly the winner, and Israel & Trump are possibly the losers, long term.
