Spa Predictions

  • Thread starter senninha
  • 5 comments
  • 543 views

Who will win at Spa?

  • M. Schumacher

    Votes: 2 50.0%
  • D. Coulthard

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • R. Barrichello

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • M. Hakkinen

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • R. Schumacher

    Votes: 1 25.0%
  • Juan Pablo Montoya

    Votes: 1 25.0%

  • Total voters
    4
  • Poll closed .
Jon Alesi will win at Spa, the Jordans have won there in the past, with Damon Hill, and i think with Jon's experience in F1 i think he will win.

Dont know how to spell his first name.
 
Too idealistic. History is not necessarily a better predicter than current trends, and the Jordans are just not as fast as some of the other competitors. I think that 4th is the best they might get.

I am unsure about who will win.
 
Copy of Planet-F1's GP preview newsletter for the Belgian Grand Prix.


Welcome to the Belgian GP Preview from Planet F1 - the ultimate Formula One
resource at http://www.planet-f1.com


Belgian GP Preview

So the championships have been won and second place is up for grabs. David
Coulthard has already told us that he's not interested in second place - oops,
'yes I am, of course I am. It's very important for the team and I shall be
trying my hardest to win.' Rubens and Ralf will be happy to relieve him of it if
he's not that interested.

What is apparent is that we're back on the quick circuits again, after the brief
sojourn to the pedestrian Hungary. These are the ones that the drivers like, but
the ones that can bite too. Get things wrong and you know about it.
Well-balanced, well-sorted cars are imperative. Power is obviously important,
aerodynamics too. And all the time, teams have an eye on next year, working on
bits and pieces in an attempt to make up for the November- December testing ban

History

We're also into an area of serious history too. Spa is a circuit that has a rich
heritage in racing. Look through Spa's history - from the first motorcycle Grand
Prix in 1921 and the first Grand Prix car race in 1925 - and you come across a
wealth of motor racing history. As early as 1939, it gained notoriety when the
brilliant British driver Dick Seaman crashed his Mercedes Benz at the right
hander before La Source and perished in the flames.

When it was first used, it was actually quite a short circuit in comparison to
other Grand Prix venues. These days, of course, the reverse is true.

It has made news in many ways. It is the third most used Grand Prix venue after
Monza and Monaco. It is currently the longest circuit used at 6.940 kms/4.312
miles but even in the early days, it ran the third longest races at
508.320kms/315.855 miles. And it boasts the second highest ever average speed
for a Grand Prix behind Italy; Pedro Rodriguez won - by 1.1s - in 1970 at an
average speed of 241.308 kph/149.942 mph.

But there haven't been that many Belgian Grand Prix drivers - just 19 and two
who failed to qualify for a race at all. Of those 19 drivers, just two have won
Grands Prix. Between them, Jacky Ickx and Thierry Boutsen won 11 races. Many
others were better known - like Jacky perhaps - as sports car racers: Paul
Frere, Olivier Gendebien, Willy Mairesse, even Eric van der Poele.

This will be the 48th Grand Prix in that country, with a fascinating fact about
almost every one. Of course, the Belgian Grand Prix has been spread around four
quite different circuits, starting with the original, marvellous Spa which took
in visits to Burnenville, Masta and Stavelot from 1956 through to 1970.

Varying weather conditions on different sides of the long circuit were
highlighted in 1966 when there was a cloudburst on the Masta straight
eliminating much of the field, including Jackie Stewart who was trapped in his
wrecked car, leaking fuel. He was thankfully rescued by fellow competitors
Graham Hill and Bob Bondurant, but from that moment onwards, Stewart embarked on
a crusade to improve safety in Grand Prix racing.

But the Grand Prix left Spa in 1971, paying brief visits to both the boring and
flat Nivelles and Zolder. But the shortening of Spa meant that the Grand Prix
returned there in the early eighties, since when it has been a regular stop on
the Grand Prix trail, to the delight of many. Actually, those of you with good
memories will remember that we actually went back to Spa twice in 1985; the
track surface broke up the first time and on the Saturday, June 1, the race was
called off. Instead we went back for another go in September, this time
successful.

Where Spa did so well was to the preserve the character of the original circuit
which disappeared over the hill at Les Combes and headed for Burnenville,
Malmedy, the Masta kink on that long long back straight, to the long right
hander at Stavelot (it was almost flat out all the way from Les Combes) and back
through the trees to join the current circuit at the current Stavelot. Now there
are the challenges of the double apex Pouhon, for instance, and the downhill
righthander of Rivage.

On both the past and present circuits, there have been many memorable races.
There are stories such as that of Ricardo Rodriguez, who was the youngest
points winner ever when he finished fourth in the 1962 event, being 20 years,
four months and three days old - but then along came Jenson Button and beat that
by two months when he finished seventh, elevated to sixth at last year's
Brazilian Grand Prix. And while we're talking about youngsters, Rubens
Barrichello became the youngest ever pole winner when he scored his first pole
in those changeable conditions in 1994. He was 22 years, three months and five
days old.

Ayrton Senna won five times in Belgium, on each occasion from pole position and
four of them in succession. Jim Clark won four times, all of them in succession,
including beating Bruce McLaren by more than a lap in 1963. Michael Schumacher
has won four times as well, his first ever victory in 1992, but he was also
disqualified from a win in 1994. The next three were in succession. Damon Hill
won three times, including the time that Michael Schumacher was disqualified; he
never lead that race at all. Fangio also won three times. Alain Prost set
fastest laps no less than six times at Spa - equal with Mansell's record at
Silverstone.

There are several other landmarks in the Belgian Grand Prix's history. It had
the second fewest starters in 1951 and 1955 at 13. It was the scene of the
Englebert tyre company's first win in 1952. Only five cars finished in 1966, the
second fewest number ever. Dan Gurney scored Eagle's - and America's - only
Grand Prix win in 1967. Dunlop scored their last win at the 1970 Belgian Grand
Prix at that remarkable average speed.

Three years later the newly standardised numbering system was first used at the
1973 Belgian Grand Prix, and eight years later, the race was stopped for the
first time due to a startline accident. In 1987, it was stopped by a second lap
accident, and three years after there was another startline accident. Of course,
in 1998, 13 cars were involved in the accident just after the first corner, but
only four drivers failed to take the restart. That year, of course, Jordan also
won for the first time.

Form

In terms of cars and drivers, Ferrari have won eleven times in Belgium,
including five one-twos and even a first to fourth in 1961. (Cooper had a first
to third a year earlier, lead home by Jack Brabham who started from pole, lead
every lap and set fastest lap too - Lauda did the same for Ferrari in 1976).
McLaren have won ten times, including five one-twos, but it was also the scene
of their first ever victory, back in 1968. Williams have won four times.

Since then Mika Hakkinen has been on pole position for the last three years, and
McLaren have been on the front row twice, and scored one of their one-twos two
years ago. But Williams have been in the points for every race since 1991,
including scoring three wins and two second places, but recently the results
have tailed off. However, on the podium for the last four years has been Jordan,
with that remarkable one-two in 1998.

It's a circuit richly associated with Michael Schumacher, as it is almost closer
to his home in Germany than Nurburgring, it's where he drove in his first Grand
Prix and scored his first Grand Prix victory. He has those five wins here too…
and has scored two seconds.

But Mika Hakkinen's record is certainly an impressive one too: he has those
poles, has won once and finished second twice. David Coulthard has won once too,
but has otherwise never been on the rostrum. In theory, then, the battle should
be between Mika and Michael.

Of the others, Rubens Barrichello has had one pole - but little else. Frentzen
has been in the points for the last four races, and Ralf Schumacher has finished
the last three races in second or third. He would be a good bet for a rostrum
position, because Williams have been in the points every year since 1991 -
including two wins. Jordan have been in the points for the last four years too.
And there have been 17 and 16 finishers for the last couple of years.

Prediction

The championship may have been won, but Michael and Mika are both in relaxed
mood, and could well still dominate - even if Ralf, David and Rubens will still
be fighting for second in the championship. It's a tough one, now that different
people have different priorities. Michael? Mika? David? Ralf? Juan Pablo,
perhaps, even Jarno if only he'd stop going backwards. You take your pick.
Whatever, I think it will be a good Grand Prix.

Bob Constanduros
___________________________________________

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Team Stats To Date: Team & Driver Stats - Up to and including Hungarian GP

Ferrari
Schumacher has out-qualified Barrichello 13 times this season
Average gap between drivers in qualifying: 0.570s
Schumacher's average qualifying position 1st, Barrichello's 5th
From 26 starts, Ferrari have finished 21 times (81%) and in the points 21 times
(81%)
From 13 starts, Schumacher has finished 11 times (85%), Barrichello has finished
10 times (77%)
Schumacher has completed 790/850 laps (92.94%), Barrichello has completed
715/850 laps (84.12%)

McLaren
Hakkinen has out-qualified Coulthard 6 times this season
Average gap between drivers in qualifying: 0.053s
Hakkinen's average qualifying position 4th, Coulthard's 3rd
From 26 starts, McLaren have finished 17 times (65%) and in the points 16 times
(62%)
From 13 starts, Hakkinen has finished 7 times (54%), Coulthard has finished 10
times (77%)
Hakkinen has completed 508/850 laps (59.76%), Coulthard has completed 758/850
laps (89.18%)

Williams
Schumacher has out-qualified Montoya 10 times this season
Average gap between drivers in qualifying: 0.484s
Schumacher's average qualifying position 2nd, Montoya's 7th
From 26 starts, Williams have finished 11 times (42%) and in the points 10 times
(38%)
From 13 starts, Schumacher has finished 7 times (54%), Montoya has finished 4
times (31%)
Schumacher has completed 628/850 laps (73.88%), Montoya has completed 535/850
laps (62.94%)

Benetton
Fisichella has out-qualified Button 11 times this season
Average gap between drivers in qualifying: 0.496s
Fisichella's average qualifying position 16th, Button's 20th
From 26 starts, Benetton have finished 17 times (65%) and in the points 3 times
(12%)
From 13 starts, Fisichella has finished 7 times (54%), Button has finished 10
times (77%)
Fisichella has completed 603/850 laps (70.94%), Button has completed 715/850
laps (84.12%)

BAR
Villeneuve has out-qualified Panis 8 times this season
Average gap between drivers in qualifying: 0.030s
Villeneuve's average qualifying position 10th, Panis' 12th
From 26 starts, BAR have finished 15 times (58%) and in the points 5 times (19%)
From 13 starts, Villeneuve has finished 8 times (62%), Panis has finished 7
times (54%)
Villeneuve has completed 604/850 laps (71.06%), Panis has completed 574/850 laps
(67.53%)

Jordan
Trulli has out-qualified Alesi 1 time this season
Trulli has out-qualified Frentzen/Zonta 10 times this season
Average gap between Trulli/Alesi in qualifying: 1.077s
Alesi's average qualifying position this season 15th, Trulli's 6th
From 26 starts, Jordan have finished 14 times (54%) and in the points 7 times
(27%)
From 13 starts, Alesi has finished 13 times (100%), Trulli has finished 6 times
(46%)
Alesi has completed 833/850 laps (98%), Trulli has completed 599/850 laps
(70.47%)

Arrows
Bernoldi has out-qualified Verstappen 7 times this season
Average gap between drivers in qualifying: 0.119s
Verstappen's average qualifying position 17th, Bernoldi's 19th
From 26 starts, Arrows have finished 14 times (54%) and in the points 1 times
(4%)
From 13 starts, Verstappen has finished 10 times (77%), Bernoldi has finished 4
times (31%)
Verstappen has completed 734/850 laps (86.35%), Bernoldi has completed 363/850
laps (42.71%)

Sauber
Heidfeld has out-qualified Raikkonen 7 times this season
Average gap between drivers in qualifying: 0.093s
Heidfeld's average qualifying position 9th, Raikkonen's 11th
From 26 starts, Sauber have finished 17 times (65%) and in the points 10 times
(38%)
From 13 starts, Heidfeld has finished 8 times (62%), Raikkonen has finished 9
times (69%)
Heidfeld has completed 587/850 laps (69.06%), Raikkonen has completed 696/850
laps (81.88%)

Jaguar
Irvine has out-qualified de la Rosa 5 times this season
Average gap between drivers in qualifying: 0.446s
Irvine's average qualifying position 13th, de la Rosa's 14th
From 26 starts, Jaguar have finished 13 times (50%) and in the points 2 times
(8%)
From 13 starts, Irvine has finished 5 times (38%), from 9 starts de la Rosa has
finished 5 times (56%)
Irvine has completed 547/850 laps (64.35%), de la Rosa has completed 408/527
laps (67.55%)

Minardi
Alonso has out-qualified Marques 12 times this season
Average gap between drivers in qualifying: 1.053s
Marques' average qualifying position 22nd, Alonso's 21st
From 25 starts, Minardi have finished 12 times (48%) and in the points 0 times
(0%)
From 13 starts, Alonso has finished 7 times (54%), from 12 starts Marques has
finished 5 times (42%)
Alonso has completed 568/850 laps (66.82%), Marques has completed 546/713 laps
(69.11%)

Prost
Frentzen has out-qualified Burti 1 time this season
Alesi out-qualified Burti 5 times
Alesi out-qualified Mazzacane 4 times
Average gap between drivers in qualifying: 1.042s
Frentzen's average qualifying position 8th, Burti's 18th
From 26 starts, Prost have finished 18 times (69%) and in the points 3 times
(12%)
From 11 starts, Frentzen has finished 6 times (55%), From 13 starts Burti has
finished 8 times (62%)
Frentzen has completed 532/659 laps (72.28%), Burti has completed 599/850 laps
(70.47%)
___________________________________________
 
A lap of Spa with Benetton's Giancarlo Fisichella

"Spa is one of the longest circuits on the Grand Prix calendar at nearly 4.3
miles (7 km) it is also one of my favourites.

The lap starts as you cross the start/finish line at over 160 mph (260 kph)
reaching a peak speed of about 180 mph (285 kph) before braking for La Source
hairpin, which is taken in 1st gear at around 40 mph (60 kph).

Nigel Mansell went in to the pit wall following a coming together with Nelson
Piquet in 1990, behind them Derek Warwick and Martin Donnelly also collided.
In 1996 both the Saubers, Frentzen and Herbert, were eliminated at La Source.
In 1998 David Coulthard lost control of his McLaren and set in motion an
accident that involved 11 other cars.

I then accelerate down the hill passed the old pits reaching 190 mph (310 kph)
before entering what is probably the most challenging corner of any grand prix
circuit, Eau Rouge. All drivers attempt to take this flat in qualifying but its
very tricky. You need to lift on the throttle to take this complex of corners at
a minimum speed of 170 mph (280 kph). It is important to maintain speed through
this corner due to the long uphill drag towards Les Combes, I reach around 200
mph (325 kph) before braking for the top chicane which is taken in 3rd gear at
between 77-83 mph (125-135 kph).

Alessandro Zanardi had a massive crash at Eau Rouge in 1993.
Stefan Bellof was killed here during the 1985 Spa 1000 kms race.
Les Combes is where Michael Schumacher and Damon Hill banged wheels in 1995.

A short straight where I reach 160 mph (260 kph) then leads to Rivage which is a
long right-hand corner taken in 2nd gear at around 62 mph (100 kph). At this
corner the circuit drops away and the cars tend to understeer. A 3rd gear
left-hand corner taken at 95 mph (150 kph) then leads to another short straight
where I reach just under 185 mph (300 kph) in 5th gear before entering the very
challenging fast double left-hand Pouhon corner which I enter at 135 mph (215
kph), and accelerate up to 165 mph (270 kph) by the end of the second part.

It was on the straight before Pouhon that Michael Schumacher and David Coulthard
collided in 1998.

A 185 mph (300 kph) straight then leads into the Fagnes chicane, the first part
of which is taken in 3rd gear at 85 mph (135 kph) and the second part in 4th
gear at 100 mph (160 kph). The next corner is a 3rd gear right-hand corner taken
at 80 mph (130 kph) followed almost immediately by a 4th gear right-hand corner
taken at 140 mph (225 kph) where the circuit rejoins the public road.

From here I accelerate hard heading back towards the pits and going through the
super fast left-hand Blanchimont corner at over 185 mph (300 kph). While this
corner is flat in Qualifying it can be quite tricky if the circuit is damp or
the fuel load is high.

Very hard braking is needed into the small chicane known as the Bus Stop which
is taken in 2nd gear at around 55 mph (90 kph). I have to use the kerbs here in
order to attain a good lap time. A final left-hand corner is taken flat at
around 120 mph (190 kph) as I accelerate out of the Bus stop towards the
start/finish line."
_________________________________________

Notes on a corner: Eau Rouge by Bob Constanduros

It is, perhaps, the most thrilling corner in Grand Prix racing, not just for the
spectator but for the driver as well. The Spa-Francorchamps circuit is one of
the drivers' favourites, but the challenge of Eau Rouge and Blanchimont, the
changes in elevation, the countryside, all contribute to a driver's opinion of
Spa.

Eau Rouge is the corner at the bottom of the hill from the La Source hairpin. As
such, it is the first corner on the circuit when the original pits are being
used. It is the second corner, after La Source, in Formula One, as the pit
straight is before La Source.

La Source itself is a slight left at the bottom of the hill, followed by a long
right and then a slight left onto the straight leading to Les Combes. But as you
turn into that long right, there is sharp compression as the car heads uphill.
Drivers often ask one another if they take it flat - a relative term anyway,
given gear ratios. Many admit that "the body says take it flat, but the brain
says 'lift'."

At some stage before the war the circuit was 14.8km long and had a section which
is largely forgotten today, even though the actual roads still remain. In the
valley at Eau Rouge the track turned 90-degrees left, into the forest towards a
right hand hairpin bend known as the Virage de l´Ancienne Douanne and then back
up the hill towards Les Combes, rejoining the current track at the a couple of
hundred meters from the bottom of the current Eau Rouge. This was by-passed in
1939 by the current Eau Rouge corner up the steep hill, and consequently, the
track was shortened to 14.5km. These roads still exist
today - you can see where the road rejoins the current track at the top of Eau
Rouge.

It has been a classic corner since, always evoking memories. I can remember a
Spa 24 hour race which had to be run under the pace car for an hour while the
barrier was repaired at Eau Rouge. Someone had gone straight on into the barrier
there and knocked it down, so that it became a launching ramp into the spectator
area, so no surprise that it had to be mended.

Most spectacular through Eau Rouge in the Spa 24 hours was a Citroen SM driven
one year by Howden Ganley and Francois Migault. Their pit was the last one down
the hill and they used it as a clipping point to throw the car sideways into the
corner and it was on opposite lock throughout the whole corner, first one way
and then the other. One problem, however, was that the headlights were connected
to the steering on Citroen SMs, so that they shone the way that the wheels were
pointing. In this instance, it wasn't necessarily the way the car was going, so
they had to disconnect them.

Stefan Bellof was killed there on September 1, 1985 when driving a Porsche 956.
He had caught Jacky Ickx in a works Porsche 962 and tried to overtake down the
left hand side into Eau Rouge and there was no room. He went across the run-off
and head-on into the barrier. Ickx and marshals helped to get him out of the
car, but he had suffered major brain damage and died. Incidentally, Bellof had
crashed at exactly the same place three years earlier when he was involved in a
four car pile-up, when driving a Maurer Formula Two car.

In 1993, Alessandro Zanardi had a huge 130 mph/210 kph accident at Eau Rouge in
his Lotus during practice, slamming into the barrier on the right and surviving
with a broken tooth, and after that, the corner was modified to incorporate a
much wider run-off area. In 1994, they even put in a tight chicane before Eau
Rouge, but such was most drivers' enthusiasm for the corner that they removed it
again thanks to the run-off being improved in 1995.

One of the most unfortunate incidents at Eau Rouge was in 1987 when Tyrrell
teammates Jonathan Palmer and Philippe Streiff collided on the second lap at Eau
Rouge and eliminated one another. The race was stopped and restarted, but there
was no car for Palmer.

Of course both Jacques Villeneuve and Ricardo Zonta crashed there two years ago
in their BARs, both having huge accidents which were put down to mechanical
failures in the suspension, and rebuilt parts were delivered the next day.

Incidentally, the climb out of Eau Rouge is so steep that the old car taking
Damon Hill on the drivers' parade one year couldn't get up it, and Damon had to
help push the car up the hill. Finally, there is a stream at Eau Rouge, and of
course, on the right hand side is a smart hotel which is where Bernie Ecclestone
stays - well, he would. It's also owned by Bernie.

Bob Constanduros
_________________________________________

Team Previews for this week's Belgian GP
http://www.planet-f1.com/gp/2001_season/belgium/teams/index.html/f1/ENG?day=team_previews
 
Hi, If the BMWs can be reliable, I go for a BMW 1-2 with anyone in 3rd, depends a lot on the weather, I like the interest in changing weather.
 
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