The 2018 US Mid-Term Elections Thread

Sanji Himura

Sanji Himura

4,464
United States
Azle, TX
supermanfromazle
SanjiHimura
As we look into our crystal ball, we are about 18 months (as of OP Post time) away from determining the fate of the rest of Donald J. Trump's first (and possibly) only term in office. It is your votes that will determine your representatives for the next two years.

Here is what is up for grabs this election cycle:

United States House of Representatives:
Republicans: 236
Democrats: 193
Vacancies/Open Seats: 6

List of Vacancies:
- Rep. Becerra (D-CA) resigned on Jan. 24, 2017 to become the California Attorney General.
- Rep. Price (R-GA) resigned on Feb. 10, 2017 to become the Health and Human Services secretary.
- Rep. Mulvaney (R-SC) resigned on Feb. 26, 2017 to become the OMB director.
- Rep. Zinke (R-MT) resigned on Mar. 1, 2017 to become the Interior secretary.
- Speaker Ryan announces his retirement.
- Rep. D. Ross (FL) also announces his retirement.

United States Senate
Republicans: 8
Democrats: 24
Independents: 2 (both caucus with the Democrats)
Vacancies/Open Seats: 10 is possible (5 Republicans 5 Democrats)

List of races where the incumbent's intent is not known:

Tom Carper - Delaware
Ben Cardin - Maryland
Roger Wicker - Mississippi
Deb Fischer - Nebraska
Heidi Heitkamp - North Dakota
Bob Corker - Tennessee
Maria Cantwell - Washington
John Barrasso - Wyoming
Orrin Hatch - Utah (Retiring)
Al Franken - Minnesota (Resigned)

State Governorships
Republican Governors: 13
Democrat Governors: 5
Retired/Term Limited/Vacant: 17

List of Retired/Term Limited Governorships

California - Jerry Brown (Term Limits)
Colorado - John Hickenlooper (Term Limits)
Connecticut - Dan Malloy (Retiring)
Florida - Rick Scott (Term Limits)
Georgia - Nathan Deal (Term Limits)
Idaho - Butch Otter (Retiring)
Kansas - Sam Brownback (Term Limits)
Maine - Paul LePage (Term Limits)
Michigan - Rick Snyder (Term Limits)
Minnesota - Mark Dayton (Term Limits)
Nevada - Brian Sandoval (Term Limits)
New Mexico - Susana Martinez (Term Limits)
Ohio - John Kasich (Term Limits)
Oklahoma - Mary Fallin (Term Limits)
South Dakota - Dennis Daugarrd (Term Limits)
Tenessee - Bill Haslam (Term Limits)
Wyoming - Matt Mead (Term Limits)​
 
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RESHIRAM5
I'm new to these Mid-Term elections. Can someone fill me in on what they're about?
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In Article I of the US Constitution, the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate is up for election every 2 years. Since the President was elected two years ago, and his term isn't up until 2020, this is considered a Mid-term election.

The Senate is critical this year since there is where the President's nominees are confirmed.
 
RESHIRAM5
I'm new to these Mid-Term elections. Can someone fill me in on what they're about?
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Elections for Governors(4yr), Mayors(4yr), Senate(6yr) etc...

It's usually State and local officials and city ordinance votes. They can fall when the President isn't up for election, hence the name.

Just realized I was tree'd... Oh well.
 
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There’s also another retirement from Florida, a Republican rep by the name of Dennis Ross.

Democrats as a whole been on a winning streak haven’t they?
 
sumbrownkid
There’s also another retirement from Florida, a Republican rep by the name of Dennis Ross.

Democrats as a whole been on a winning streak haven’t they?
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In 95 national- and state-level elections since Trump took office, that featured at least one Democrat and one Republican, Democrats have outperformed the normal "partisan lean" for their district or state by an average of 13 points. This hasn't always resulted in wins, though; in many cases it's just meant closing the gap and narrowly losing races they've traditionally had no chance at.

Combine that with the fact that, historically, the president's party almost always loses some seats, and it's all but certain that we'll see several seats flip Democrat. Whether it'll be enough to retake either or both houses of Congress is anyone's guess.
 
Seems like our candidates for Governor can't even schedule a debate... Article has not been updated but the 7'o clock deadline was met and there will be no debate before the election.
God help Georgia...
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/ke...duled-alternatives-being-considered/863845404
*Y'all already know who I'm voting for. But if you want a laugh or a trigger Google Kemp campaign commercials, you'll be entertained. :D

Shame this thread gets ignored... Would be interesting to see if the "Blue Wave" is coming.
 
New Jerseys race is within the margin of Error now according to polls, a republican hasn't won the senate there for nearly 50 years.

Polls are hard to take seriously though given how badly they got the 2016 election wrong.

Like Florida which has stronger Early voting results for republicans then Trump got in 2016, yet Dems are polling nearly 10 points higher, not sure what logic that is.

Dems are polling well in Texas and Georgia though that could come down to the wire.
 
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I cast my votes by pre-paid mail last week. There was nothing of direct national significance on the Washington State/King County/Seattle ballots. A new local food and beverage tax was up for a vote. A new state tax on pollution sources is also proposed, with revenues to be spent by an unelected board, as well as another initiative for even tougher gun laws, and one for rather radical new restrictions on police, so these may be "coming to a theater near you" in the future.

However, I did notice that not a single Republican appeared on the Seattle ballot, but seemed to be replaced by Libertarians! Bearing in mind my town is probably the most liberal in the universe, this surely cannot be a national trend. But it was a happy one for me. :)
 
Of the three major proposals here in Michigan, Proposal 2 is by far the most controversial one on the ballot by a landslide. The point of this proposal is to create a committee that will be tasked with drawing the district lines. The only thing I can think of other than this proposal that is hotly disputed in this part of the state is the school board race since a group managed to recall the entire board in this city earlier this year (and then decided to run for the board themselves as opposition).

As for proposal 2- the link below is the website for the proposal here if anyone wants to look at it.
https://www.votersnotpoliticians.com/yeson2
 
Recent Rasmussen polls show Trump at 40% approval rating among potential black voters. Bodes well for the blue wave turning into a few pond ripples if it proves to be true.

DqruEHjW4AA8dDy.jpg:large
 
DesertPenguin
I call BS
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Apparantly the data is behind a paywall. I have not been able to find out the methodology or even the original research results. Other similar polls show a much lower approval rate among black americans going from 15-20%. The only source I found to be pushing the Rasmussen data is Breitbart, who is known to spread conspiracy theories and "alternative facts".
 
I thought about skipping this mid-term since my vote won't mean very much this time around.

I probably will though, as the voting place is <1 mile from my house and it's an excuse to be late to work.
 
Fivethirtyeight polls seem spot on (because they poll smaller towns I’m guessing), Hillary winning the popular vote & Trump having a good chance on getting the participation trophy.

I’m glad I didn’t vote for Hillary & I don’t care for thin skins like Trump, not worth my time.

Only ballot worth voting on was the referendum in Milwaukee county (legalization of cannabis)
 
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Fivethirtyeight polls seem spot on (because they poll smaller towns I’m guessing), Hillary winning the popular vote & Trump having a good chance on getting the participation trophy.

I’m glad I didn’t vote for Hillary & I don’t care for thin skins like Trump, not worth my time.

Only ballot worth voting on was the referendum in Milwaukee county (legalization of cannabis)
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Yes spot on.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
 
the_boy
That was last updated in late October of that year. There are many articles after that (I paid more attention to the scenarios they had)
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If you read the Article it was updated day by day.
 
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mustafur
They still predicted Hillary to win the

If you read the Article it was updated day by day.
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That’s fine, I wasn’t referring to those articles, I remember fivethirtyeight saying Trump had a good chance of winning the participation trophy. The link you provided doesn’t show anything about scenarios.
 
the_boy
That’s fine, I wasn’t referring to those articles, I remember fivethirtyeight saying Trump had a good chance of winning the participation trophy. The link you provided doesn’t show anything about scenarios.
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It showed popular vote and Electoral results based on polling, they even had a complete map of likely red and blue states.
 
Alabama Constitutional Amendment #2

These Alabama bible thumping hillbillies are at it again. First they wanted to back Good Ole boy, Colonel Roy Moore for Senate because he was "a man of God" and would return God's views to the Senate. Well thankfully that whole mess went down in flames.

Now they're at it again. On November 6th they're trying to get a statewide amendment passed which reads:

"Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, as amended; to declare and otherwise affirm that it is the public policy of this state to recognize and support the sanctity of unborn life and the rights of unborn children, most importantly the right to life in all manners and measures appropriate and lawful; and to provide that the constitution of this state does not protect the right to abortion or require the funding of abortion."

They get this ridiculous thing passed, the next step is a statewide ban on abortion.

As much as I would hope that there are enough reasonable thinking people in this state to defeat such an egregious attempt to force religious views into state politics, sadly it can only be a dream.

We rallied the support it took to defeat the evil Roy Moore, hopefully we can defeat this nonsense too.
 

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