2015: Volkswagen Overtakes GM and Toyota

[YSSMAN]

Welcome to the future, my friends...

Volkswagen has revealed that it plans to take on the newly minted global leader Toyota and become the world's largest carmaker by 2015. The ambitious goal was confirmed by Michael Kern, head of sales and marketing for the Volkswagen brand, who said they aim to beat Toyota on both vehicle sales and profitability.

According to Kern, VW plans to bring 12 new models to its lineup in the next three years, a level unprecedented by any large carmaker. Kern was also quoted in German magazine Auto Motor Und Sport as saying "we are going to expand our presence in the United States, Russia, India and other markets."

One of the previews at the recent Frankfurt Motor Show was the up! minicar concept. Small cars are expected to be the Next Big Thing as the Indian and Chinese middle class mobilize.

As of 2007, however, Volkswagen is far behind Toyota and GM in sales. The company will manage to sell just over 6 million cars compared to more than 9 million for the two leaders.

Sweet Jesus are they going to have to work hard to get to this point. I mean, I do expect a bit of a downturn for Toyota at some point, and while GM has some great products down the pipe, they do nothing for the sales they need NOW.

But VW as the top automaker in just seven years?

No matter how much of that VW Kool-Aid I drink, I find it a bit hard to believe...

 

[Loon]

It will be very interesting to watch how all this plays out...

 

[Kent]

Again, I'm with you on this one as well (agreeing with you a bit more lately).

One thing VW doesn't say in that (atleast very much) is China.
Right now Audi and VW are the biggest suppliers in China and I doubt they expect that to change. With that in mind, I'm sure their predictions are based to some extent on continued success in the Chinese market.

I doubt GM and Toyota are going to let VW take away the Chinese market and so I imagine that as the Chinese market grows, so will the pressence of the big two in China. If that's the case I'm sure VW will have a much harder time doing this 2015 plan.

 

[Philly]

Twelve new models? What do they have left? Or does that include all of the VAG group?

It seems like a rather ambitious goal. While I do not doubt they can do it, they will have a very fun time. The part that scares me is the profit they want to make off every car. Does this mean production moving to cheaper places like Eastern Europe and out of Germany? What will Germany do?

 

[YSSMAN]

I doubt GM and Toyota are going to let VW take away the Chinese market and so I imagine that as the Chinese market grows, so will the pressence of the big two in China. If that's the case I'm sure VW will have a much harder time doing this 2015 plan.

Quite right.

GM has a pretty firm grasp on the Chinese market just like VW, particularly with their Buick and Cadillac brands. As a matter of fact, Buick just shelled out some big cash to start sending the Enclave to China, but thats another story...

...Toyota and China though? I dunno. China and Japan tend not to like to get along too often...

 

[Azuremen]

...blink... blink... blinks some more...

HAHAHAHA. Madness. What do they think 12 new models are going to do though? They need to change their image alot to get more customers. And they need to fix the reliablity issues as well.

They have a LONG way to go before they can achieve this, and I do not think 7-8 years is going to cut it. I'm not saying this as a Toyota fanboy either. And I mean, YSSMAN's brain washing VW kool-aid is not convincing him either

 

[YSSMAN]

Well, I'm not going to outright say that they can't, as the correct products in the correct markets can do wonders for any company. Problem is, they've still got pricing issues, being a "premium" company and all, but they are fixing that. At least, they say they are...

So, yeah. Probably not right away. But, I don't see why they can't be on the podium with GM and Toyota. Ford and Chrysler won't be hard to push-over these days...

 

[Philly]

Well, I'm not going to outright say that they can't, as the correct products in the correct markets can do wonders for any company. Problem is, they've still got pricing issues, being a "premium" company and all, but they are fixing that. At least, they say they are...

I have always been under the impression that Volkswagen operated their own name for mainstream cars, while Audi was a "premium" deal and SEAT and Skoda were for budget cars. VAG also have those ultra expensive Bentleys, Lamborghinis and Bugattis that, while not accounting for many sales, must bring in huge profits.

So, yeah. Probably not right away. But, I don't see why they can't be on the podium with GM and Toyota. Ford and Chrysler won't be hard to push-over these days...

It does seem like VW wouldn't have any issue pushing Ford down, at least here. I'm not sure how strong Ford is in other markets compared to VW. And Chrysler?!? Are they a threat to anybody anymore? I would have though Chrysler would have sunk a ways below VAG a while ago...

 

[High-Test]

Here's how they're going to do it:

A Republican will get elected president, carry on the war, and Volkswagen will release a Neo-Microbus within the price range of many high school through college age kids that are discontented with the war. THen, upon realizing that their childrens vehicles are the new vehicular craze, their parents will trade in their priuses for beetles and microbuses. Add in a spectacular Jetta TDi with 4MOTION, and one has a winning combination.

 

[Philly]

Here's how they're going to do it:

A Republican will get elected president, carry on the war, and Volkswagen will release a Neo-Microbus within the price range of many high school through college age kids that are discontented with the war. THen, upon realizing that their childrens vehicles are the new vehicular craze, their parents will trade in their priuses for beetles and microbuses. Add in a spectacular Jetta TDi with 4MOTION, and one has a winning combination.

One problem: Who is about to buy a new car that costs less than $5k? And Why would ANY parent want it?

But yeah, I see where you are off to.

 

[High-Test]

Since when did I say the car would be under 5k?

Besides, it was a joke.

Because. Today's 30 somethings who will have driving age kids in seven years are all about being in style. Trust me. I've got a sister who's 36 and one who's 39. The older one wants to get rid of her Rendezvous because she thinks it makes her look old. (Even though she got it at nearly half price, and will come out ahead when she sells it.

As long as they aren't state owned and they don't call a model the kDf-Wagen and name 2015 the Volkswagenreich, I'll be a happy guy.

 

[YSSMAN]

IMO, sell the Up! with a Beetle-style body, and they'll have an easy road to go up in terms of getting everyone to buy it.

The thing is, they need to bring back basic models in order to be really truthfully successful here in the US market. Something like the Fox or the Polo will bring people in on a cheap price, high-quality, highly-efficient vehicle that looks great and drives even better. Its what worked well up until 1999 (with the MKIV debut), as Volkswagens were known as cheap cars that were fun to drive and easy to own.

 

[The Vanishing Boy]

-> I'm in 60% in doubt that VW would be #1 worldwide by 2015. Despite they will bring a whole arsenal of models by 2015, they still have a long ways to be able to catch up Toyota.

-> Here's an example, in North America espeially in Mexico, VW's are everywhere. Almost the same thing in Euroland. But the problem lies in South and Southeast Asia, in which dominated by either Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi and Isuzu. Even GM had a very hard time of penetrating this marketplace besides China. Along with GM, VW is on full force on China.

-> But when you go south a bit, VW are rare as what Subaru's are here in the US. VW has to work harder in those markets.

-> Toyota on the other hand, has pretty much have a grasp of everywhere. Even there not #1 in every country, their pressence are still all over the place.

 

[Philly]

Since when did I say the car would be under 5k?

When you said High schoolers could afford it.

Besides, it was a joke.

Yeah. I know.

IMO, sell the Up! with a Beetle-style body, and they'll have an easy road to go up in terms of getting everyone to buy it.

The thing is, they need to bring back basic models in order to be really truthfully successful here in the US market. Something like the Fox or the Polo will bring people in on a cheap price, high-quality, highly-efficient vehicle that looks great and drives even better. Its what worked well up until 1999 (with the MKIV debut), as Volkswagens were known as cheap cars that were fun to drive and easy to own.

Or, they could maintain their current image and introduce SEAT to the US for the cheap-o cars that are fun to drive. Although I would say that Volkswagen is in an akward spot. They aren't nice enough to compete with BMW and Mercedes, and Audi does that anyway. At the same time, they seem too nice to compete with Ford, Toyota, Honda and them. Although I must say that those cars are catching up.

I'm all for the Fox and Polo though. Those would be really cool models to have.

 

[a6m5]

I think they are talking out of their you know what.

But if they were to do it, I'm certain that it will not get it done in market that are already mature and established like Japan, Europe, USA, etc. I'm thinking that they will have to beat the likes of GM, Toyota, and other growing companies from South Korea and China in growing Asian markets(China, India), where there are no clear winner yet.

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Bram Turismo]

VW takes over Toyota?



Errrr..yeah right

Come back onto that again in 2015...not gonna happen.

 

[Pupik]

If VW buys Toyota it will happen: Then Audi can introduce models like the R0.5, RSπ, and the A0.0L at cut-rate prices.

Either that, or Lamborghini is really going to have to ramp up production.