Brexit - The UK votes to leave the EU

Discussion in 'Opinions & Current Events' started by Touring Mars, Feb 3, 2016.

?

Should the UK....

  1. Remain a member of the EU

    150 vote(s)
    63.0%
  2. Leave the EU

    88 vote(s)
    37.0%
  1. Touring Mars

    Touring Mars Moderator

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    [​IMG]

    Britain faces a referendum on its membership of the EU, possibly as early as June of this year, with others wanting the vote to be held next year.

    It is currently believed that the British Prime Minister, David Cameron (Conservative) will lead the 'IN' campaign (i.e. the campaign for the UK to remain a member of the EU), but on the basis that he is able to negotiate 'significant' changes to the terms of UK's membership before the referendum. The 'OUT' campaign (or should I say campaigns) are already gathering momentum, with a number of 'Eurosceptics' (including some prominent Conservatives and UKIP's Nigel Farage) backing a vote to leave the EU - nicknamed 'Brexit' (British Exit).

    It is highly debatable whether the EU would survive as an entity if the UK voted to leave. The UK is already set apart from the rest of the EU as it is neither a part of the Schengen Area nor has the UK adopted the single European currency, the Euro. However, the Eurozone is still struggling to contend with major financial problems (the so-called Eurozone crisis) and is also faced with unprecedented levels of immigration from Syria, Iraq etc. that threaten to further destabilize relations within the EU.

    This promises to be a fractious and divisive campaign, with huge implications for both the UK and the EU. In the wake of the recent Scottish Independence referendum (which saw Scotland vote 55%-45% to remain in the UK), a potential vote to leave the EU would be met with consternation in Scotland, since Scotland is widely perceived to be more pro-European than England... but with English votes accounting for 84% of the UK total, Scotland could find itself exiting the EU regardless of how Scottish people vote, hence possibly triggering another independence referendum. Also, Brexit could also lead to calls for referendums in a bunch of other EU countries.

    It is currently not at all clear how the people of Britain will vote when push comes to shove. If PM David Cameron cannot successfully negotiate significant changes to the UK's current relationship with the EU, he will have a hard time convincing people that the UK is better off remaining a part of it. Hence, I've added an anonymous poll to this thread to gauge current opinion, so feel free to let us know how you intend to vote!

    Proposed Brexit ballot paper:

    [​IMG]

    Campaigns:
    http://www.strongerin.co.uk/
    http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/
    http://leave.eu/

    Explainers:
    BBC guide to the EU referendum: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887

    Polls:

    FT Poll of Polls: https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
    Economist poll tracker: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/05/britain-s-eu-referendum
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2016
  2. Liquid

    Liquid Premium

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    In or Out is too simple a scenario. It's far more complex than that, don't you think?
     
  3. Touring Mars

    Touring Mars Moderator

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    It is a very complex issue, but as far as the referendum goes, it is simply a question of 'In' or 'Out'. Unfortunately for David Cameron, there is no 'Shake It All About' option.
     
    synchromesh, Schwartz, Minty and 5 others like this.
  4. Dennisch

    Dennisch Premium

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    I say leave. The EU and all its different schemes to try to unite too many differences is starting to look like a failure more by the day. The Netherlands will hold a referendum soon about having Ukraine join in a, mostly financial, agreement with the EU. Watch how it will be used (and likely shot down) as a protest vote against the EU and their meddling.
     
    Johnnypenso likes this.
  5. polysmut

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    The terms of remaining a member state are to be negotiated before the referendum will be held though.
    Some of the political questions involved at the moment revolve around the timing of when the referendum will be held. There's a potential clash in timing & the possibility of campaigns interfering with elections around the UK.
     
    Touring Mars likes this.
  6. Tired Tyres

    Tired Tyres

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    I'm voting to leave and nothing will change my mind over it. We should never have joined in the first place. I very much doubt the NO vote will win though. Cameron is not an idiot when he decides on how to present these things.
     
  7. lxmmy

    lxmmy

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    I'm voting to stay. Leaving this would lead to the Houses of Parliament wasting time on laws which would be amended as all laws must comply with EU as we are under the European Communties Act 1972.

    Economically it is will be a negative as trade links will be weakened with investors within the EU so this will have a domino effect on our economy.
     
    ialociN likes this.
  8. W3HS

    W3HS Premium

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    When the EU starts dictating rules that mean school kids can't earn themselves some pocket money by doing paper rounds or weekend jobs because they deem it abusive to the kids then I think it's time to leave the BS behind and say bye bye.

    The amount of taxes and rules that have been emposed by the EU and had negative effects on small British companies is ridiculous. The British way of life has been permanently effected by the EU and not for the better.

    The effort to establish a united continent which would enforce human rights has gone beyond its need and wormed its petty rules into all of our lives uninvited. I doubt when it was established the founders ever though that things would become so completely dominant and PC.

    **** the EU.
     
    justin credible likes this.
  9. Touring Mars

    Touring Mars Moderator

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    Good piece on Brexit in the FT earlier in the week, describing David Cameron's proposed demands as 'bizarrely besides the point' and noting that the EU is in grave danger of collapse already. It argues that the UK should be more concerned about the implications for its own security if the EU project were to fail, rather than 'rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic'. It points out that if the UK were to vote to leave the EU, and possibly precipitate the collapse of the EU, the UK would be (unfairly) scapegoated.
     
  10. TenEightyOne

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    I think the success of the Royal Union is dependent on this - if the UK (not just Britain as the papers' "Brexit" implies) leaves the Union then I imagine that Scotland will have the wind in her sails that she needs to finally break north for good. I have much love for Scotland but none for the Union so that's just fine by me.

    However, I do think that Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland should continue to be parliamentary members of the EU but that we should continue to resist the currency. As a standalone Royal Union we'd no longer have the trading power or the legal clout that we might have enjoyed before joining the European Union. We would lose too many citizen benefits as a result of leaving, we'd lose too many scientific benefits and we'd lose our ease-of-interfacing* with the European police forces.

    *I know there'll be a better word, just can't think of it right now...
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2016
  11. Brend

    Brend Premium

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    I vote to stay, providing the UK continues to exist. However, if a 'Brexit' is put forward I'd like to hope Scotland could achieve independence on the back of the repercussions of doing so.
     
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  12. Liquid

    Liquid Premium

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    I know but from my own personal position both votes apply:

    I believe that European co-operation is a good thing; being isolated would be disastrous even if we did reclaim back some sovereignty. However the European Union as it as currently is untenable. Things cannot stay as they are. I could argue staying in the Union on the principle of European co-operation or leaving it because the EU as it is needs fundamental change and needs to be scaled back.

    As I have parroted in this sub-forum for a few years, the old EEC is what we need. Nice, economic co-operation whereby it's easy to send shoes and sausages to your neighbour over the border and for them to send you oranges and vermouth in return. Happy days. Assimilating everything into a suprastate is horrible and I don't see why anyone ever thought it might work. :censored: Valery d'Estaing.

    So if this was posed to be strictly as it was... I honestly don't know how I would vote. My preferable vote would be to stay on the proviso that the entire structure of the EU is reworked and retailored with the majority consent of the entire electorate of the EU. But when has democracy ever worked with this body? You only have to look at Ireland's resistance to the Lisbon treaty and subsequent bullying into submission to see that these fundamental changes almost certainly will never happen.

    Plus, I am a Briton living abroad within the EU anyway. Will I be able to vote?
     
  13. Touring Mars

    Touring Mars Moderator

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    I was in a similar dilemma during the Scottish independence referendum, but I agree that this is far more complex and potentially a lot more far-reaching even than that. Boiling it down to a simple yes or no is going to be incredibly hard for many people.

    One school of thought during the Scottish indy referendum was that breaking up the Union would be irreversible, while maintaining the Union offered more possibilities for reform while retaining the future possibility of separation. Many 'No' votes (pro-Union) were borderline and/or open to persuasion. This contrasted fairly sharply with typical 'Yes' voters, who (in my experience anyway) were mainly comprised of people who had made up their minds long ago and who were not open to persuasion - this was borne out by the narrowing of the polls in the run-up to the vote. There are clear parallels with the IN and OUT camps in this debate too.

    I think so... the BBC article linked to in the OP says UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. However you may want to set up a postal vote sooner rather than later!
     
    TenEightyOne likes this.
  14. Joel

    Joel Premium

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    Is this actually a real thing that has ever happened?
     
  15. Ibonibo

    Ibonibo Premium

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    Very well written.

    The old Eu was sublime. Economic union, then the greed came, Euro too soon too far pushed, eastern countries added too soon. How well it all went when we were the 15/17 countries.

    And I think too that the UK leaving will hurt the UK way more than the rest of the EU. Uk had a good thing going. Pushing the EU to gather more sovereignty again, and they wouldn't been alone in that battle. But just leaving or asking to get an extra sauage while the rest don't get it won't work.

    And gaining all sovereignty back is a nice idea for the UK, but wouldn't that push it even more towards the US. Don't know what's worse. And then comes the whole economic in it. Certain London has a nice finance sector, but how will it hold over time in isolation.... Look at Switzerland....

    Paperrounds or similiar should be no problem. There is a limit on working hours, and tax free earnings.
     
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  16. Hun200kmh

    Hun200kmh

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    I won't cast a vote in this poll (for obvious reasons) but by refraining to do so I am unable to see the voting results as they progress. Is there a way around this?

    On the issue, and if an outsider's opinion matters, I think the UK being "In" or "Out" is irrelevant for the survival of the EU (there are other far more relevant issues that can dictate the EU's collapse). The UK is pretty much "out" already in the most relevant political issues, so it's basically being part of the "free internal market" that is in question. Regulatory issues will remain even if the UK is out, because trade won't stop and you need some sort of common rules to apply or else it'll be a nightmare to import and export for both sides.

    The military cooperation doesn't need the EU (and doesn't happen within the EU anyway), and generally speaking it's each country for himself in foreign affairs.

    As a socio and geo political experiment, I'm more interested in seeing the UK leave than I am in seeing the UK stay.
     
    Sanji Himura likes this.
  17. Touring Mars

    Touring Mars Moderator

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    I've changed it to be visible to non-voters :tup:
     
  18. Hun200kmh

    Hun200kmh

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    That was quick. Thanks! :tup:
     
  19. Scaff

    Scaff Staff Emeritus

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    No it hasn't.

    Exactly, and the limits increase as the child age increases.

    All three of mine have had part time jobs at the weekend and its never been an issue. In fact quite the opposite when one tried to get my youngest to work far more hours that is allowed (and would have impacted on her GCSE's)
     
  20. TheCracker

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    I'd keep you informed of which way the voting is swinging, but as i've not voted - due to not having made up my mind yet - i can't either.

    I think the issue with the UK leaving, is that other countries, or the citizens of, who are also not entirely happy with the Franco/German-centric nature of the EU, will maybe push to leave the EU too. It will open the sluice gates.
     
  21. Scaff

    Scaff Staff Emeritus

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    You should be able to, but if we do leave you might need to get ready for visa nightmare time.
     
    lxmmy likes this.
  22. TenEightyOne

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    @Touring Mars, perhaps there should be a no-vote option to cover this?
     
  23. Hun200kmh

    Hun200kmh

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    Hey Dan, TM already solved that, even if you didn't vote, to view the results you only need to click on the ... "View Results" button ;)
     
  24. TheCracker

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    Yeah, i only noticed his stealth amendment after i put my post together and clicked reply :rolleyes: :)

    Of course the referendum only shows a want of the general population to exit the EU. Nothing gets set in concrete or is changed overnight. A win for 'stay in the EU' will change probably nothing. A win for 'exit the EU' only sets wheels in motion. It guarantees nothing, but leaves room to negotiate a better deal with the EU.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2016
  25. Lizard

    Lizard Premium

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    I am voting to stay. I believe that ultimately the union is a good thing for trade etc. Also a number of my friends are EU citizens. They are good people who will do a great deal for us when they finish uni but if we left they would have no right to stay here without a visa.
     
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  26. TenEightyOne

    TenEightyOne Premium

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    No, most referenda, this one included, are legally binding.
     
  27. ExigeEvan

    ExigeEvan Premium

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    Stay.

    But I'm not convinced as to why yet. We need a better trade deal with non-EU markets, but we also need to be able to trade goods and skills easily within the EU.

    But at the same time we don't seem to have the ability to protect our industry the same way as many nations are able to. This isn't about the recent steel news, but all parts of British manufacturing.
     
  28. polysmut

    polysmut Premium

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    http://www.monbiot.com/2016/02/10/the-lesser-evil/
     
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  29. Sanji Himura

    Sanji Himura

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    I largely agree. Militarily, the UK is a member of NATO, however, the only hold up that I see is economically. The only land bridge that connects the UK is through France, and they are a EU member, so for the large part, British citizens that would regularly travel to France would have to carry the Euro anyways.

    The only difference between in or out is legal standing in the EU, and you may correct me if I am wrong here, I don't think that it matters one bit for years.
     
  30. TenEightyOne

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    We don't use Euro now, only in Euro countries... I don't see that the UK leaving the EU would alter anything about that at all or that it would significantly alter our regular work/holiday habits. Not all EU countries use the Euro (that would be the Euro-zone countries, of course).

    What I see as being fairly likely if the UK exits is that countries in the UK may end up with different currencies.