Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

Deal or No Deal?

  • Voted Leave - May's Deal

  • Voted Leave - No Deal

  • Voted Leave - Second Referendum

  • Did not vote/abstained - May's Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - No Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - Second Referendum

  • Voted Remain - May's Deal

  • Voted Remain - No Deal

  • Voted Remain - Second Referendum


Results are only viewable after voting.
This is why Ireland is something of a special case - the EU stand to gain absolutely nothing by making life harder for an existing member state.

I agree with you on this.
But as you've pointed out many times, the EU hasn't flinched or given the UK any leeway, regardless of the shambolic state of the government. So I'm unsure if they are going to change their stance now, given that at the last minute we seem to have decided to play chicken with them
 
New referendum in the make?


Maybe this has been posted already.
At this point in time, it is practically too late to have another referendum - the reasons for that are explained quite well here:

https://theconversation.com/brexit-here-are-the-barriers-to-a-referendum-on-the-final-deal-100109

Suffice it to say that it would be unprecedented in UK legal history if it were to happen. The fact that prominent Remainers (Tony Blair, Nick Clegg etc.) are calling for such a referendum is only playing into the hands of those who believe (rightly) that a referendum on the Brexit deal is a clear attempt to reverse the result of the first one.

But perhaps the biggest problem with a second referendum is that it could very well produce a result that solves nothing, or even makes matters worse (if that is possible). What would the question be? Is it fair to have two leave options and one remain (thus splitting the leave vote?) - and, let's be frank here, if the first referendum is proof that the British public cannot be trusted to make such an important decision, then why is a second referendum on the subject a good idea?

-

My discomfort with the idea of a second referendum goes beyond these considerations though - I would also ask 'If the UK cannot leave the EU now under our current circumstances, then when will it be possible/easier to leave?' The answer to that, I'm afraid, is that it will never happen - and, one suspects, that is largely the idea as far as the EU are concerned. But although I voted Remain, I suspect that many people like me were not only disappointed, but really quite concerned about how the UK's ideas of EU reform were largely rejected prior to the referendum, and that the EU is doubling down on further integration (as it must, since the Eurozone demands it). As a result, the UK and the EU are on fundamentally different (albeit tightly intertwined) future paths - but I seriously doubt that a majority of UK people really see the UK changing direction on this any time soon - the UK never was and, I would argue, never will be fully signed up to the EU's grand plan of ever closer union... and that, ultimately, means that it is not a question of if the UK will leave, but when - and, crucially, how. But, even though we are not part of the Eurozone, the EU are seemingly making it politically impossible for us to leave without causing a catastrophic split that benefits no-one - and that, to me at least, has very serious implications if the UK decided to abandon Brexit for the time being, only to pursue it at a later date when relations are even more fraught, or, worse still (and which is arguably more likely) when the EU is fracturing and facing departures from other member states for different reasons. However much it pains me to say it, while Brexit now is going to be very painful, it is probably far preferable to what we might face in ten years' time.
 
Last edited:
Suffice it to say that it would be unprecedented in UK legal history if it were to happen.

I don't know if this is the correct wording, as a Referendum isn't legally binding, which is why vote Leave haven't been convicted in a criminal court.


But that was a good read, the last paragraphs perhaps hitting the hardest;
The UK now finds itself stuck between a model of parliamentary democracy that – thanks to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 – keeps this government in power but potentially unable to command majority support in the House of Commons for its Brexit plan, and the option of a referendum that is unlikely to resolve the political deadlock. If the UK is to avoid becoming ungovernable, something is going to have to give.

One hopes it's not the people and our economy that will have to give...
 
Your current domestic law. Stuff like acts of parliament, codes, common law, etc.
Well I'm not sure what relevance your question has to Brexit, but I'm not sure what I would value more, law, the economy or myself, but the whole point of law is to protect those things...
 
Would you submit to a despot in return for lifetime jobs and healthcare?

You mean instead of submitting to a government I didn't vote for that enacts events I didn't vote for, using money they take from me in a job I have that doesn't have a lifetime guarantee, because the media manipulates the gullible majority to reinforce their own repugnant wealth?

... maybe.
 
One hopes it's not the people and our economy that will have to give...
However much it pains me to say it, while Brexit now is going to be very painful, it is probably far preferable to what we might face in ten years' time.

Lads... Lads, c'mon... cheer up...

Think of all the Polar Bears we can save, or all the bulls that us quitting the EU is going to save...

_102707025_d7386bf7-afe4-49ad-86d2-63cf7e1e3194.jpg


_102706227_voteleaveanimal.jpg


... It's a small price to pay for stopping them DIRTY foreigners... (seriously)...

_102707021_cb2f9546-5ed6-48a4-9e6a-d2a696139cf8.jpg


coming over here... and stealin' our jerbs....

_102717456_voteleavebeleave-nc.png


and even worse.... NEGATIVELY AFFECTING OUR TEA!!!!!

_102707028_a1f60a3e-34cb-42be-bdb8-4e39bbbcadbb.jpg


The total bastards!!!

At least in 245 days we can start to rebuild, and in 365 days time we'll have Seventeen!!! COUNT 'EM... Seventeen NEW hospitals.....

_102717458_vlnhs2-nc.jpg







Am I brexiting right?

From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44966969
 
Lads... Lads, c'mon... cheer up...

Think of all the Polar Bears we can save, or all the bulls that us quitting the EU is going to save...

_102707025_d7386bf7-afe4-49ad-86d2-63cf7e1e3194.jpg


_102706227_voteleaveanimal.jpg


... It's a small price to pay for stopping them DIRTY foreigners... (seriously)...

_102707021_cb2f9546-5ed6-48a4-9e6a-d2a696139cf8.jpg


coming over here... and stealin' our jerbs....

_102717456_voteleavebeleave-nc.png


and even worse.... NEGATIVELY AFFECTING OUR TEA!!!!!

_102707028_a1f60a3e-34cb-42be-bdb8-4e39bbbcadbb.jpg


The total bastards!!!

At least in 245 days we can start to rebuild, and in 365 days time we'll have Seventeen!!! COUNT 'EM... Seventeen NEW hospitals.....

_102717458_vlnhs2-nc.jpg







Am I brexiting right?

From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44966969

I almost put those in the funny pictures thread... but then realised, it wasn't funny
 
You'll want to read the very last line paragraph of that...

The correction was in place when I read the article so I'm assuming that the references they refer to being removed are none of the ones I've quoted? Unless you're referring to Aunties policy on external linking?
 
The correction was in place when I read the article so I'm assuming that the references they refer to being removed are none of the ones I've quoted? Unless you're referring to Aunties policy on external linking?
Unfortunately the entire article is now hopelessly unclear, due to that correction.

It's claimed something like 1,400 of these ads went out, but 250 of them that it referred to were seen by "fewer than 1,000 people". It turned out that these ads were classified as being seen by 0-999 people by the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport select committee, when in fact they were seen by 0 people, as they were never ordered, never mind published.

As of that correction, we now have no idea if the adverts they have posted to illustrate the piece are part of the 250 that were never seen or not. They have not changed since the original article, and chances are that either 1 in 6 of the 12 posted (thus two) are not real. Or, ignoring the law of averages and assuming the author picked the most horrendous ones which tally closely with the ones Vote Leave/BeLeave/whomever thought were too horrendous to order, way more than that. As they didn't do the due diligence in the first place and no other part of the article has changed, we can't be sure of any part of that article now.

From what I understand of it, the ads with a BeLeave logo/imprint never ran anywhere. Conveniently, that's two of the 12 in the BBC piece :lol: However, that's only my understanding. I've not dug too deep into it.


This is a news item presented as fact which, it turns out, contains fiction as part of the thrust of the piece and which cannot be trusted whether it contains fact or not. For want of a better phrase to describe it, that's pretty much the definition of "Fake News".


And that's ignoring the awful writing (or subbing; or both):
"Boris Johnson was the only politician to be pictured in the ads
[image of Boris on an ad]
Apart from one featuring Jeremy Corbyn"

Facepalm.
 
Unfortunately the entire article is now hopelessly unclear, due to that correction.

It's claimed something like 1,400 of these ads went out, but 250 of them that it referred to were seen by "fewer than 1,000 people". It turned out that these ads were classified as being seen by 0-999 people by the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport select committee, when in fact they were seen by 0 people, as they were never ordered, never mind published.

As of that correction, we now have no idea if the adverts they have posted to illustrate the piece are part of the 250 that were never seen or not. They have not changed since the original article, and chances are that either 1 in 6 of the 12 posted (thus two) are not real. Or, ignoring the law of averages and assuming the author picked the most horrendous ones which tally closely with the ones Vote Leave/BeLeave/whomever thought were too horrendous to order, way more than that. As they didn't do the due diligence in the first place and no other part of the article has changed, we can't be sure of any part of that article now.

From what I understand of it, the ads with a BeLeave logo/imprint never ran anywhere. Conveniently, that's two of the 12 in the BBC piece :lol: However, that's only my understanding. I've not dug too deep into it.


This is a news item presented as fact which, it turns out, contains fiction as part of the thrust of the piece and which cannot be trusted whether it contains fact or not. For want of a better phrase to describe it, that's pretty much the definition of "Fake News".


And that's ignoring the awful writing (or subbing; or both):
"Boris Johnson was the only politician to be pictured in the ads
[image of Boris on an ad]
Apart from one featuring Jeremy Corbyn"

Facepalm.

Despite us being able to safely assume zero effect for some of the adverts the spend is the spend - and the adverts that did run gained somewhere around 2-4 million views. The ad you mention which shows Corbyn (which did run, along with the others pictured) is aimed at Corbyn voters and has a pro-Leave message alongside.

The piece of news that was incorrect (due to the dataset showing 0-999 views for those adverts, correct in itself as it turned out) has been removed from the main article. That isn't fake news if the data is correct (0 sits within the 0-999 bracket) and if it's corrected. It would be more disingenous simply to remove all references and not have the clarification at the end of the piece.

The writing is indeed quite sloppy, a hallmark of the BBC news site nowadays, but the facts remain.
 
Despite some tough words that cast enormous doubt on Theresa May's current Brexit plan, Michel Barnier appeared to 'blink first' on the Irish border issue in a key op-ed article that was published by the EU today, saying that the EU is 'ready to improve the text of our proposal on the Irish border'.

https://www.independent.ie/business...ove-eu-proposal-on-irish-border-37178564.html

Frankly, they are going to have to change their proposals. Guy Verhofstadt makes it clear here that the EU will have no alternative but to construct a hard border in Ireland if there is 'no deal' on Brexit (see 3.00 onwards). Frankly, this is not physically possible and any attempt at such would be met with outrage on both sides of the border and, no doubt, extreme physical resistance. Verhofstadt also doesn't appear to know who would construct such a border - which given that both Ireland and the UK are totally opposed to it, is a bit of a problem. The bottom line is that there will be no hard border in Ireland - ever. Indeed, it is Ireland who insist that there is no hard border, and so it is hard to see how the EU can force Ireland to construct one - ironically, Ireland and the UK are singing from the same hymn sheet on this, while the EU will be left demanding the impossible from one of its own member states. In other words, if there is no deal, then the EU's position on the EU-UK border will lie in tatters.

Ironically, far from being the poison pill that could derail Brexit, it is looking more like it is the poison pill that scuppers the EU's hardline negotiating position i.e. if your negotiating position relies on the threat of something that is physically impossible, then your negotiating position is not credible.
 
Last edited:
I'm not sure I understand your reasoning TM. Without a hard border in Ireland, how can you check immigrants entering the UK? Keep in mind that since Ireland is not in the Schengen area, anyone leaving Ireland for another EU country will be suject to id control at the border entry of that EU country. However, any EU national may enter Ireland with no troubles (just id check) and from there enter the UK (skilled workers won't do it because they don't do clandestine work. But unskilled, poor EU folks will undoubtebly follow that route and take their chances).

So I guess the "border issue" is more troubling for the UK than it is for the EU. Definitely with the free travel of people, but also because it won't have a big impact regarding goods. You can smugle some through Ireland, but the amount of lorries and ferries needed for the "Irish detour" of goods to be substancial would make it also unpractical, so such a practise would have minimal, if any, impact.
 
I'm not sure I understand your reasoning TM. Without a hard border in Ireland, how can you check immigrants entering the UK?
It's a good question, and it is something the UK government would need to address. However my point is that all consequences of a hard border - good, bad, common sense etc. - are all rendered moot by the reality that a hard border will never be built. So basing one's negotiating strategy on the existence of a hard border in Ireland that cannot happen is simply untenable.

Even if the UK changed its mind tomorrow and proposed a hard border in Ireland, Ireland would veto the deal (that is a certainty, by the way) thus, the UK have no option but to pursue a no hard border strategy otherwise a deal is not possible. It is highly ironic that it is Ireland's insistence of no hard border that could lead to a No Deal scenario that will result in the EU coming into direct conflict with one of it's own member states.

But I don't know what the UK government will do to address immigrants entering the UK illegally from Ireland when there are no border checks - the reality will likely be a bilateral agreement with Ireland to strengthen border checks at all Irish ports (north and south), but critically, Northern Ireland will not be subject to EU laws on deportation and the UK can basically do whatever they like after Brexit when it comes to handling illegal migrants settling in Northern Ireland. Also, there's a big difference between allowing free entry to people and 'the Free Movement of People' - the former will allow people to freely enter and explore that area, while the latter guarantees the right of people to live and work legally in that area... that's an almighty difference. Why would people (e.g. EU migrants) choose to live and work illegally in Northern Ireland (from which they could be more easily deported) when they are legally entitled to be in Eire? The concession from the UK side will be that there are tougher border controls in the UK for persons coming from Ireland (including the North), and I reckon that is unavoidable to a certain extent (e.g. passport checks or a visa waiver system), but even then it won't change the fact that Northern Irish people will be legally allowed to live and work in the rest of the UK, while everyone else will merely be allowed in.
 
Last edited:
At this point in time, it is practically too late to have another referendum - the reasons for that are explained quite well here:

https://theconversation.com/brexit-here-are-the-barriers-to-a-referendum-on-the-final-deal-100109

Suffice it to say that it would be unprecedented in UK legal history if it were to happen. The fact that prominent Remainers (Tony Blair, Nick Clegg etc.) are calling for such a referendum is only playing into the hands of those who believe (rightly) that a referendum on the Brexit deal is a clear attempt to reverse the result of the first one.

But perhaps the biggest problem with a second referendum is that it could very well produce a result that solves nothing, or even makes matters worse (if that is possible). What would the question be? Is it fair to have two leave options and one remain (thus splitting the leave vote?) - and, let's be frank here, if the first referendum is proof that the British public cannot be trusted to make such an important decision, then why is a second referendum on the subject a good idea?

-

My discomfort with the idea of a second referendum goes beyond these considerations though - I would also ask 'If the UK cannot leave the EU now under our current circumstances, then when will it be possible/easier to leave?' The answer to that, I'm afraid, is that it will never happen - and, one suspects, that is largely the idea as far as the EU are concerned. But although I voted Remain, I suspect that many people like me were not only disappointed, but really quite concerned about how the UK's ideas of EU reform were largely rejected prior to the referendum, and that the EU is doubling down on further integration (as it must, since the Eurozone demands it). As a result, the UK and the EU are on fundamentally different (albeit tightly intertwined) future paths - but I seriously doubt that a majority of UK people really see the UK changing direction on this any time soon - the UK never was and, I would argue, never will be fully signed up to the EU's grand plan of ever closer union... and that, ultimately, means that it is not a question of if the UK will leave, but when - and, crucially, how. But, even though we are not part of the Eurozone, the EU are seemingly making it politically impossible for us to leave without causing a catastrophic split that benefits no-one - and that, to me at least, has very serious implications if the UK decided to abandon Brexit for the time being, only to pursue it at a later date when relations are even more fraught, or, worse still (and which is arguably more likely) when the EU is fracturing and facing departures from other member states for different reasons. However much it pains me to say it, while Brexit now is going to be very painful, it is probably far preferable to what we might face in ten years' time.

Why do you assume the British people would never want to become part of a eu that's an ever closer union?

Seeing younger people generally voted remain, wouldn't the assumption be that over time the Uk would want to become part of that ever growing union?

Sidenote: again a very well written opinion piece by you. Allways makes me think twice.
 
Why do you assume the British people would never want to become part of a eu that's an ever closer union?

Seeing younger people generally voted remain, wouldn't the assumption be that over time the Uk would want to become part of that ever growing union?
It's a fair point, but I wouldn't equate voting Remain with being in favour of ever-closer union. Certainly, there will be a significant element within the Remain camp who are in favour of full integration, though I am not one of them (though I did vote to Remain). One must remember that the UK's membership of the EU was already pretty significantly different to, say, France or Germany and thus voting in favour of full integration would entail a very significant change. I personally voted to Remain in the EU in the hope of maintaining the status quo, but alas the status quo looks less and less likely to survive - even if we had voted to Remain.

The trouble is that I don't believe there is a real appetite for 'full integration' in any EU member state, but the UK is arguably least keen on the idea (see this poll for example). But the challenges faced by the EU, particularly in relation to sovereign debt and the Euro, are making it necessary to move towards much closer integration regardless of public opinion, and that's a BIG problem that is going to have to be worked out soon.

As for whether the next generation of Brits will demand (re)joining a 'United States of Europe', that will largely depend on what happens after Brexit but also what happens to the Eurozone. While I'm not overly optimistic that Brexit will work out as being hugely beneficial to the UK, I am even less optimistic that the Eurozone will survive in its present form - and, perhaps more worryingly, I doubt they will be able to implement the necessary reforms to save it either, simply because there are too many equal and opposite forces at play to make moving forward possible. One thing we are already witnessing (in Greece, for example) is that poorer, more indebted states are essentially being propped up by creditors in return for control (financial, political and even social). But both sides think they are getting a bad deal i.e. they are the ones shouldering most of the burden while the other is not doing enough. Full integration would certainly help to resolve the mess that the Eurozone is currently in, but I fear that it would simply be too unpopular to be done with the consent of the people.
 
Last edited:
It's a fair point, but I wouldn't equate voting Remain with being in favour of ever-closer union. Certainly, there will be a significant element within the Remain camp who are in favour of full integration, though I am not one of them (though I did vote to Remain). One must remember that the UK's membership of the EU was already pretty significantly different to, say, France or Germany and thus voting in favour of full integration would entail a very significant change. I personally voted to Remain in the EU in the hope of maintaining the status quo, but alas the status quo looks less and less likely to survive - even if we had voted to Remain.

The trouble is that I don't believe there is a real appetite for 'full integration' in any EU member state, but the UK is arguably least keen on the idea (see this poll for example). But the challenges faced by the EU, particularly in relation to sovereign debt and the Euro, are making it necessary to move towards much closer integration regardless of public opinion, and that's a BIG problem that is going to have to be worked out soon.

As for whether the next generation of Brits will demand (re)joining a 'United States of Europe', that will largely depend on what happens after Brexit but also what happens to the Eurozone. While I'm not overly optimistic that Brexit will work out as being hugely beneficial to the UK, I am even less optimistic that the Eurozone will survive in its present form - and, perhaps more worryingly, I doubt they will be able to implement the necessary reforms to save it either, simply because there are too many equal and opposite forces at play to make moving forward possible. One thing we are already witnessing (in Greece, for example) is that poorer, more indebted states are essentially being propped up creditors in return for control (financial, political and even social). But both sides think they are getting a bad deal i.e. they are the ones shouldering most of the burden while the other is not doing enough. Full integration would certainly help to resolve the mess that the Eurozone is currently in, but I fear that it would simply be too unpopular to be done with the consent of the people.

I can see how an ever closer union is not what the majority of people currently want.

I am in favour of integrating into the eu. I do have to put up this huge disclaimer that it would not be managed as it is now and that I'm not well read enough to say how exactly it should work. But there are some examples to look at and learn from (USA, Canada, but also belgium and other smaller nations with multiple 'ethnic' groups living in the same country).

And considering your final thought, do you think full integration could be a good thing? (Assuming the system would be overhauled and there would be popular support for it)
 
And considering your final thought, do you think full integration could be a good thing? (Assuming the system would be overhauled and there would be popular support for it)
In principle it could be a good thing, but it could also be a very bad thing, depending on how and why it was done.

I'm minded of Eric Morecambe's joke about playing all the right notes but not necessarily in the right order - the resulting tune was a horrible mess. It is pretty clear by now that adopting a common currency before the union was really ready for it has created massive problems, not least the sovereign debt crises in the PIIGS countries, and now full integration is being posited as the "only" solution.

That's a very far cry from what could have happened, but sadly there's not much point in speculating about what might have been now. The reality is now that full integration is pretty much required in order to avert economic (and social) catastrophe, and it is no longer a question of what anyone may or may not want.
 
Back