Lotto Numbers

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Who has a better chance of winning? (read post)

  • Person A

    Votes: 6 11.8%

  • Person B

    Votes: 13 25.5%

  • both the same

    Votes: 21 41.2%

  • i don't care

    Votes: 11 21.6%
  • Total voters
    51
ZZII

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Vote above for the following question. If you are real adventurous, argue your answer in a post.


QUESTION:

Person A plays the same set of lotto numbers once every week for a full year (52 drawings).

Person B plays 52 different sets of lotto numbers in one single drawing and then does not play again for the rest of the year.

Who has the better overall probability of winning?
 
They're both the same because the numbers you chose last week have no effect on the numbers that win this week. So each week it starts new and their chances of winning are always 1/1,000,000. This is because it is a random drawing.
 
Originally posted by Jpec07
They're both the same because the numbers you chose last week have no effect on the numbers that win this week. So each week it starts new and their chances of winning are always 1/1,000,000. This is because it is a random drawing.
Click to expand...

Person A: 1 (x52) : 1,000,000
Person B: 52 (x1) : 1,000,000
 
Another example for explaining this:

Flip a coin and if you get 10 heads in a row the chance for another heads is always 50/50.
 
Originally posted by Jpec07
They're both the same because the numbers you chose last week have no effect on the numbers that win this week. So each week it starts new and their chances of winning are always 1/1,000,000. This is because it is a random drawing.
Click to expand...
Complete agreement.
 
Originally posted by Concept
I vote for the pig.
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Sorry, the pig is neither Democrat nor Republican, and therefore, is ineligible for votes in the primaries.
 
In the UK you pick 6 numbers, and there are 49 balls. The chances of anyone matching all 6 numbers is a little over 14 million to one against, or the equivalent of playing two sets of numbers each week for 520 years.

On a similar subject (probability problems):

You are in a room with a guard and 3 doors. One leads to escape, the other two to... not escape.

You have decided, arbitrarily, to go for the left-hand door. The guard interrupts your train of thought by saying to you "I don't believe you did anything - but I can't tell you how to escape. I will tell you that it's NOT the middle door though".

Assuming the guard is telling the truth, which of the two remaining doors offers you the best chance of escape - the left-hand one you already chose, or the right-hand one?

Discuss... :D
 
it's 50/50. Human intuition has no influence on reality, so you're either right in chosing the left, or you're wrong. If you're lucky, then you're in the better 50, if you're terribly unlucky, you're in the less-fortunate 50.
 
Easy, melt the end of your toothbrush, sharpen it on the ground, then take your chances against whatever is behind the door if you pick the wrong one.

Er, sorry. Uh. No idea.
 
Originally posted by Jpec07
it's 50/50. Human intuition has no influence on reality, so you're either right in chosing the left, or you're wrong. If you're lucky, then you're in the better 50, if you're terribly unlucky, you're in the less-fortunate 50.
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Nope. If it helps, I thought the same thing, but you're thinking on the right lines already...
 
please elaborate. You either chose correctly or you didn't (unless you want to start getting into quantum physics here, which I wasn't sure if you wanted to...)
 
Well... in addition to my mild elaboration above, I'll tell you that the answer is EITHER a) Stick or b) Change, and not c) Doesn't matter. You're on the right lines with what you already said, and quantum physics, although applicable (as always), doesn't help and will give you the same answer.
 
the answer is C, your chances of being right are the same both ways, but i would stick with A because it is always good to go with your gut.
 
Originally posted by Jpec07
the answer is C, your chances of being right are the same both ways
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I just TOLD you it's not! And it really isn't...
 
Originally posted by Famine
I just TOLD you it's not! And it really isn't...
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If you read the rest of my post, you'll find that I said I'd stick with A because once you've made up your mind, you had better be right or else you're toast.
 
I did indeed read the rest of your post. But the bit where you said "the answer is C, your chances of being right are the same both ways" at the very beginning is in error.

Read the beginning of the puzzle again - I fear you are getting too bogged down in the end of it.


I'll let a few other people throw out answers to this before I give the answer away myself. That is, if no-one gets the right answer and reason before then :D
 
Originally posted by Jpec07
If you've already decided then the answer is to A. stick with the door you've chosen...
Click to expand...

This is actually a probability question - it can be answered mathematically. Is there any way to prove your answer, mathematically? Then you'll know if you're probably right or probably wrong (damn probability! :D)
 
It's been along time since I did probability problems, but I'm guessing that it has something to do with a graph (going on a whim here). If you have two posibilities to choose from, and they both have equal and opposite responses, then the forumla would be a=b (a 45 degree radius from 0). However, if you've already chosen a over b, you're believing that a is better than b, therefore a>b. This result looks similar on a graph, but the line is dotted and the area above the line is filled in (representing your decision). Whether or not you'll survive is still undetermined, as that is a verticle line on a=0. hope I've solved it.
 
Originally posted by Jpec07
If you have two possibilities to choose from
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I knew you were stuck on the second half of the puzzle.

You're working on this assumption alone - go back and read the start of the puzzle. I'm sure you'll get it then.


Interestingly, I didn't believe the answer to this originally. I even tested it using a randomising factor (a die), and it didn't work. But I tried it again with a properly instructed, and double blinded human and she actually proved the solution...! :D
 
Aha! You cannot assume that he is telling the truth, and therefore the option is D, take the Middle door :D.
 
Bah humbug...! :D

It is part of the puzzle to assume he IS telling the truth. You need to work back a little earlier still than that...

Remember, it's a MATHEMATICAL problem, with a mathematical solution...
 
Okay... I'll give it you... :D

Initially, you have THREE doors to choose from. You arbitrarily plump for the left-hand door. What are the chances that you are correct?

You are 1/3 likely to be right and 2/3 likely to be wrong <- this is the important part.

Now someone tells you, truthfully, that one of the two doors you didn't pick is definitely wrong. You are left with two choices. One door which is only 33% likely to be right and one door which is 66% likely to be right... Should you stick with the first door or change to the second? Of course, there's no actual guarantee, but changing is logically the only way to go.


If you don't believe this, imagine extending the options a little. You have TEN doors to choose from. You pick one, giving you a 1/10 chance of being right and a 9/10 chance of being wrong. Someone tells you that 8 of the other 9 doors are the wrong way to go - do you stick or change your mind to a door 90% likely to be right?

Go further still - there's a MILLION doors... You have a 1 in 1 million chance of picking the right one. Someone comes up and says that 999,998 of the other doors are wrong - you've got your 1 in a million shot door to stick with, or your 999,999/1,000,000 chance that your original pick was wrong and you should change...


So the answer is "change your mind".
 
Originally posted by Famine
Okay... I'll give it you... :D

Initially, you have THREE doors to choose from. You arbitrarily plump for the left-hand door. What are the chances that you are correct?

You are 1/3 likely to be right and 2/3 likely to be wrong <- this is the important part.

Now someone tells you, truthfully, that one of the two doors you didn't pick is definitely wrong. You are left with two choices. One door which is only 33% likely to be right and one door which is 66% likely to be right... Should you stick with the first door or change to the second? Of course, there's no actual guarantee, but changing is logically the only way to go.
Click to expand...

However, when you took away the middle door, saying that it's not the way, you also took away 1 out of 2 thirds. So What you are left with it 33% for your choice being right, 33% for your choice being wrong. 33:33=1:1=50:50. I was right :D
 

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