My latest prize car wheel observations

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Sorry. I don't have any proven theories on how to get the car you want but I do have some observations.

For those who don't know I have nearly completed the task of getting all prize car / colour combinations.

This has involved restarting saved games many times. In total I have probably looked at the prize car wheel about a thousand times in the last few weeks. And this is no exaggeration. I needed about 150 specific car/colour combinations when I started and I have not got them 1st time. some I have had to work hard to get so a thousand is no exaggeration believe me.

If I was programmin the prize car wheel I would be confronted with a certain task. How to program in the randomosity (good word that).

I would first of all get it working by determining the following parameters:

Starting position of the black circle eg position 1, 2, 3 or 4.
Initial speed the black circle moves at eg 1/4 sec per position.
A deceleration rate eg each cycle adds 1/4 sec per position to the previous cycles time.
Total time it spins for eg 10 secs.

I have no idea if any of these parameters are measured this way but this is an illustration not yet an observation.

When I set it up I could run it and it would always finish on the same car unless I changed one of these parameters (in a random fashion).

Having watched the prize car wheel at least half of the time in the last few weeks so maybe 500 or 600 I have concluded that the randomosity comes in by changing the starting position.

Each time it comes up the black circle appears under the car that finishes on the right (this is where we see it first because that car is the first to appear on the screen). But I have observed that the black circle appears at different times. The change is subtle but still noticeable. So it starts in various positions (which is out of our sight 3/4 times).

This rules out the X theory. I believe that if I studied it with the goal being to be able to predict what car will come up I could do it just by watching the first cycle of the black circle.

The randomosity therefore comes in to play by determining where the black circle starts.

How does the game do this ?

Some people have the theory of total time in the series or racing quality eg total time divided by number of crashes etc. Sorry. No Go. In my experience where I need certain cars I did not have the time to vary my total race time but still found all cars come up.

eg The lastest car I needed was the Midnight Pearl Mugen S2000. The cars from the Type R series all came up in approx 25% each allocations over about 200 restarts (yes you heard right). The problem was that the Midnight Pearl did not come up. I did not do any extra race time to alter the outcome. But over 200 restarts all 4 cars came up in about even distribution.

There is one theory that I can not rule out. Please hear me I am not saying this works. I am saying that I can not rule it out. I heard someone say that on the prize money screen there is an ok button in the bottom right that flashes when your money is in the bank. They said if you press it on the 2nd flash a certain car comes up. On the 4th flash a different car came up etc. I don't think it is that simple. But I do think it is possible that the timing of pressing X for ok may determine the car but with a granularity of no more than 1/4 sec. I tried to test this and there may have been a pattern but not such that I could predict what car would come up with any certainty.

But we can try something based on this. If from a certain game save the same cars keep coming up try pressing ok at different times as I think this may change the outcome.

I am not 100% certain of this but it is worth a try.
 
i dont think that pressing the ok button has any affect on the outcome of your prize car. I usually press it right away because i am impatient and i never get the same car.
 
Originally posted by z06
i dont think that pressing the ok button has any affect on the outcome of your prize car. I usually press it right away because i am impatient and i never get the same car.

My explanation of this (and once again I am not trying to push "MY" theory because it is merely a topic of conversation and something to try is that the granularity (my suggestion is 1/4sec or less) means that you are not actually pressing it at the same time.

If you are like me you press X about 10 times trying to get he money and get to the prize car screen as quickly as possible. If you cvhange your timing by 1/4 sec which is very easy this may change the outcome.

EDIT: PS It isn't MY THEORY anyway. I read it in another post.
 
One thing I have noticed is that if you have the menu music switched off, the spot seems to stop a bit more abruptly. I can't say it's concrete, but after almost a year of playing with the music on it seems to have changed a little bit now that the music's off. (I have my stereo going while I play now so that's why the game music is off, if you were wondering.)

Hmm, doing a search it sems like this is one of those eternal arguments that everybody has their own theory about. Guess we all just want to figure out how to beat the system, huh? :D
 

Hmm, doing a search it sems like this is one of those eternal arguments that everybody has their own theory about. Guess we all just want to figure out how to beat the system, huh? :D [/B]


True.

I think it is possible though that I have looked into it with more than most and have ruled out most of the theories.

If anyone wants to prove any of their theories then do an experiment, document the findings and post the results.

Most people just say "It works for me if I press it right". Well prove it.
 
Originally posted by IntegraGS-R
someone just needs to ask the damned programmers :)

It would be easy to ask them but hard to get an answer. If we knew the answer the game would lose some of its replayability factor.

Sure it is a factor that requires us to keep playing rather than encourages us to keep playing but it still makes us play more.
 
Originally posted by gumpy
It would be easy to ask them but hard to get an answer. If we knew the answer the game would lose some of its replayability factor.

Sure it is a factor that requires us to keep playing rather than encourages us to keep playing but it still makes us play more.

i think maybe if someone confronts them with a well thought out description they might be kind enough to oblige.. as far as replayability... just becuase we know HOW it works, doesn't mean we'd be able to 'pick' the car you wanted each time... and then there are still the different colors which you cannot pick... and for people who want to get all the cars by winning them or something similar, they will still have to race the series over.. but just wouldn't have to reload 1000 times to get the car they wanted... i agree with you to some extent though... well, also, i would doubt after a few years the programmers wouldn't mind giving out some secrets (it seems like this is the last thing that hasn't been figured out about gt3)

what do you guys think..... oh, by the way gumpy, i'm very impressed with your dedication to get all the car color combinations.. i dont know if i could handle all that reloading :)
 
Originally posted by IntegraGS-R
i think maybe if someone confronts them with a well thought out description they might be kind enough to oblige.. as far as replayability... just becuase we know HOW it works, doesn't mean we'd be able to 'pick' the car you wanted each time... and then there are still the different colors which you cannot pick... and for people who want to get all the cars by winning them or something similar, they will still have to race the series over.. but just wouldn't have to reload 1000 times to get the car they wanted... i agree with you to some extent though... well, also, i would doubt after a few years the programmers wouldn't mind giving out some secrets (it seems like this is the last thing that hasn't been figured out about gt3)

what do you guys think..... oh, by the way gumpy, i'm very impressed with your dedication to get all the car color combinations.. i dont know if i could handle all that reloading :)

Yeah good points in there.

The only thing is if they say how it works in GT3 and if we assume that at least to some extent it ruins the replayability then they may need to come up with something different for GT4.

Most of the Prize Car / Colour quest has been enjoyable and most of the time it seems to be easy to get what I want but there have been a few cars that caused major headaches.

Getting the Vanquish was a little hard but I made it enjoyable. I raced the British GT races except Trial Mountain and saved on 2 mem cards.

I then had to race the Trial Mountain race over and over until all the colours came up. I enjoyed it because although I used cars that won easily I used a different setup each time.

I used a stock Toyota GT One Race Car but then made some large setup changes. Same with R390. Did a skyline or 2. Tried Polyphony 002 but still can't get near a 001 time. It was like 10 lap test sessions.

I think I got all colours in 12 attempts. That is not bad for 7 colours.

The cars that gave me grief was initially the Beetle Cup Car. I could not get black.

I then did the Clio Cup and got it first time.

White GT40 still alludes me.

Mugen S2000 Midnight Pearl took about 200 restarts. Luckily because this was the last car I needed from this series my other mem card was freed up so I got the Beetle Cup car, got 5 B license golds and raced the series to win the GT40 in between to keep me sane.
 
Originally posted by gumpy
Yeah good points in there.

The only thing is if they say how it works in GT3 and if we assume that at least to some extent it ruins the replayability then they may need to come up with something different for GT4.


Mugen S2000 Midnight Pearl took about 200 restarts. Luckily because this was the last car I needed from this series my other mem card was freed up so I got the Beetle Cup car, got 5 B license golds and raced the series to win the GT40 in between to keep me sane.

yeah.. i didn't even think about gt4. very good point. as far as the restarts go.. i only have one memory card, so i'd get damn bored :)
 
Originally posted by ving
hmm... interesting theory gumpy.... the flashes of the ok button hey?

i still say random :p

Ving. You keep saying random but do you realise that a computer (and a PS2 is basically a computer) can not be random. It is all based on logic. When you ask a computer for a random number or random outcome it cheats by using something that is always different eg time in milliseconds since an event. It could even be as simple as adding all the digits in the date/time including milliseconds and dividing it until you get a number between 1 and 4.

Are you trying to say the outcome and randomiser is based on something other than user input and that it is something we have no control over ?
 
but i do have to say that the computer chooses the outcome regardless of any input the user may or may not be doing...

there for if the computer in my opinion is just picking a no. between 1 and 4.... nothin else
 
I may be totally wrong here as I have no concrete proof of any outcomes and I believe that it is not possible for humans to prove it anyway because the granularity is too fine.

What I do know is that over 200 restarts at the Amateur Type R series all cars came up and I was not trying to force the result ie at this series I was just getting each restart over with as quickly as possible.

I would say it was approx 25% each car over the 200. The colour distribution was however very skewed (basically just against the Midnight Pearl Mugen I was after).

This would suggest random to the point that we can not force the result anyway.

PLEASE note that this is not my theory. I read it somewhere and just thought I would raise it as an option. In my future GT3 games what I will be doing is letting the prize car wheel do its thing. If I get the same car 20 times in a row then I will change my timing of pressing ok and hope that it changes the outcome.
 
well if u look at it this way...

if there is only one colour of each prize car avaliable then the chance of getting each car is 25% or 1/4.

however if u are after a colour and there are say 4 colours of each prize car availiable the chance of getting a specific colour of a specific car is 1/256 or 4x4x4x4(unless i am looking at it wrong as that takes all combinations into acct..... actually thats wrong, it's 1/16 which still ainth that good)....

ei very slim but
 
With the Mugen S2000 in Midnight Pearl I was after there is 1/4 chance of the car and then 1/7 for the colour which results in 1/28.

There are actually 7 Mugens, 7 Spoons, 3 Hondas and 1 NSX available which is 18 but I am sure the prize car wheel does not choose from the list of 18 and then make the wheel land in that spot. I reckon it randomly chooses the car and then randomly chooses the colour.

This is a bugger really as with the White GT40 I am after there are 2 Skylines and the Raybrig NSX but then 6 GT40s so the chance is 1/24.

Hope it doesn't take as long as the Mugen did.
 
Won the white GT40 and the Rosso Pearlescent Speed 12 last night.

They were both medium size battles. About 30-40 restarts each.

Now just the Chameleon Orange Speed 12 with a 1/48 chance and the MX5 from the B License Gold. Only did B8 a couple of times last night and got a very good bronze time.:lol: On B6 I am 0.069 off gold. Problem is I thought that run was perfect. B7 I have only done 1 bronze run.

Did first 3 time trials after realising that I can turn ASM off and got gold in the first 2 and silver in TT3 on first run (about 0.3 off gold). On TT3 I thought I was doing ok but not great until I looked at the clock and realised I was close.

I was doing time trials just for my sanity in between the prize car wheel. I now have the confidence and desire to do them. Will probably start my next game with them.
 
Originally posted by gumpy
On TT3 I thought I was doing ok but not great until I looked at the clock and realised I was close.

dont you just love it when that happens? i had one of those runs on TT9 (tahiti maze) and got gold first try :) then i spent like 30 min to an hour to get the gold for R8.. it was frustrating as hell...
 
Last night I restarted about 20ish times trying to get the chameloen orange Speed 12. No go. Blue and silver were the only colours that kept coming up.

So for my sanity I did some more B license runs. Got B6 by 0.010 sec and then did B7 for about 15 minutes. Got to within 0.077 of gold and knew what I had to do but it just did not happen. It was one of those nights.

I then went back to trying for the Speed 12. First try the reflex spice came out. I thought, "Must be the time of day where the colour randomiser is in the orange part of the colour spectrum so I will get the chameleon very soon." Nice theory, huh.:lol: :lol:

Next try Red Griffith.

Next try Speed 12 in drum roll please - chameleon orange. So my latest theory is that the colour is determined by the time of day with a half hour granularity. :lol: :lol: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :banghead: :banghead:

In summary all I have left is the MX5 from B license. I need to trim 0.077 from B7 and about 1 sec from B8.
 
Originally posted by gumpy
Sorry. I don't have any proven theories on how to get the car you want but I do have some observations.

For those who don't know I have nearly completed the task of getting all prize car / colour combinations.

This has involved restarting saved games many times. In total I have probably looked at the prize car wheel about a thousand times in the last few weeks. And this is no exaggeration. I needed about 150 specific car/colour combinations when I started and I have not got them 1st time. some I have had to work hard to get so a thousand is no exaggeration believe me.

If I was programmin the prize car wheel I would be confronted with a certain task. How to program in the randomosity (good word that).

I would first of all get it working by determining the following parameters:

Starting position of the black circle eg position 1, 2, 3 or 4.
Initial speed the black circle moves at eg 1/4 sec per position.
A deceleration rate eg each cycle adds 1/4 sec per position to the previous cycles time.
Total time it spins for eg 10 secs.

I have no idea if any of these parameters are measured this way but this is an illustration not yet an observation.

When I set it up I could run it and it would always finish on the same car unless I changed one of these parameters (in a random fashion).

Having watched the prize car wheel at least half of the time in the last few weeks so maybe 500 or 600 I have concluded that the randomosity comes in by changing the starting position.

Each time it comes up the black circle appears under the car that finishes on the right (this is where we see it first because that car is the first to appear on the screen). But I have observed that the black circle appears at different times. The change is subtle but still noticeable. So it starts in various positions (which is out of our sight 3/4 times).

This rules out the X theory. I believe that if I studied it with the goal being to be able to predict what car will come up I could do it just by watching the first cycle of the black circle.

The randomosity therefore comes in to play by determining where the black circle starts.

How does the game do this ?

Some people have the theory of total time in the series or racing quality eg total time divided by number of crashes etc. Sorry. No Go. In my experience where I need certain cars I did not have the time to vary my total race time but still found all cars come up.

eg The lastest car I needed was the Midnight Pearl Mugen S2000. The cars from the Type R series all came up in approx 25% each allocations over about 200 restarts (yes you heard right). The problem was that the Midnight Pearl did not come up. I did not do any extra race time to alter the outcome. But over 200 restarts all 4 cars came up in about even distribution.

There is one theory that I can not rule out. Please hear me I am not saying this works. I am saying that I can not rule it out. I heard someone say that on the prize money screen there is an ok button in the bottom right that flashes when your money is in the bank. They said if you press it on the 2nd flash a certain car comes up. On the 4th flash a different car came up etc. I don't think it is that simple. But I do think it is possible that the timing of pressing X for ok may determine the car but with a granularity of no more than 1/4 sec. I tried to test this and there may have been a pattern but not such that I could predict what car would come up with any certainty.

But we can try something based on this. If from a certain game save the same cars keep coming up try pressing ok at different times as I think this may change the outcome.

I am not 100% certain of this but it is worth a try.
On my sample set of cars they show up as just 4 tires going round the track, thats a HOOT to observe
 
I'm confused about prize cars. From other threads, I read that in Amateur Type-R Mtg for example, you can keep going back to win more S2000s/NSX.

My question would be, must have you have 2 memory cards to win a car more than once in any given event? I got a Mugen S2000 Midnight Pearl on my first try, which is a nice color but I think white looks the best. =)
 
Originally posted by enzojr
I'm confused about prize cars. From other threads, I read that in Amateur Type-R Mtg for example, you can keep going back to win more S2000s/NSX.

My question would be, must have you have 2 memory cards to win a car more than once in any given event? I got a Mugen S2000 Midnight Pearl on my first try, which is a nice color but I think white looks the best. =)

Yes. If you want to win more cars without reracing the series then you need 2 mem cards. This is what I have done.
 
this is what i do to get the car i want....i race the whole series and try to lead the car infront of me by 10 or more points....then save after the second to the last race....then enter the last race and skip it...since i'm leading by more than 10 points the computer's point can't catch up...so then i get a car...if i don't like it i just reset then it sends me back to the race...i exit again and get the car again....i just continue this till i get the car/color i want...
 
you dont have to reset, all you have to do is not save then go to the main menu and reload your game, it saves so much time.
 

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