Alonso and Hamilton... equal footing, depending on their drive to win.
You've got to give Lewis credit. When he needs to drive the wheels off the car, he can. When he needs to save tires, he can. When he needs to overtake, he can. When he needs to not get into silly accidents because of cars he forgot were behind/beside/in-front-of him, errh....
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Button is a likely shoo-in. Hamilton's head just isn't in the game, though he drives magnificently most of the time, the mistakes are just ruining it for him.
Webber has been driving somewhatconsistently, but he doesn't seem to have the drive or the start-line skills to hold off the competition. If he suddenly figures out how to pull away from the starting line (He's actually managed not to boggle it once or twice this season), he might just pip Button, but I'm not betting on it.
Alonso has a car held together with shoestrings and hope. It's always entertaining watching him drive from an underdog position, because he's so good at it, but it's heartbreaking to see him do all that work only to have it wasted as the car itself fades towards the end of the race.