Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[eran0004]

No one have reliable information about russian oil export since 2023, on you chart you see drop in revenue of legal supplies that could be traced by Western analytics.

Then what makes you believe that (a) Russian oil export revenues have gone up since 2022 and (b) it has done so because of the sanctions?

Already answered earlier

You replied to it, but you didn’t actually answer the question and you certainly didn’t prove you were correct.

Good for Putin, not country or me personally. He gets what he needs to continue war, we get inflation, iron curtain and cut ways to flee country.

But you haven’t demonstrated that the sanctions are good for Putin. All you have is that they’ve been bad for you personally and you try to swing our opinion about them by baselessly claiming that they have somehow been good for the Russian economy.

 

[inCloud]

overall data doesn't support it

Do not support that in 2022 RF oil was golden or what?

And why has Russia had to go down that route? Oh, look it's sanctions.

Yes, but main goal of sanctions wasn't reached - war still here, people dying more than ever, human rights oppressed more than ever, even I tired of hypocrisy fest that West doing.

see how well it works

Nice

Then what makes you believe that (a) Russian oil export revenues have gone up since 2022 and (b) it has done so because of the sanctions?

Since late 2022? Nothing , never said it did.

But you haven’t demonstrated that the sanctions are good for Putin

In 2022 he made more money than ever, right after he started war in Ukraine, not sure what are you talking about. Since than, money flow is lowered, but he still rising salaries and one time payouts for contractors. Missiles with western chips inside still flying and oligarchs wifes still hanging at Azure cost.

 

[Keef]

They burning down civilian SUVs on public roads near Sudji
View attachment 1379222

You imply that a car has a choice.

A vehicle is a vehicle. Any vehicle can and has been used by militaries for transportation, and eliminating vehicles eliminates the military's ability to function. As long as the people travelling in this car were spared, there is no problem with destroying the equipment.





Not sure exactly what the purpose of this whole thing is. I assume to divert resources toward the north and relieve Ukrainian troops in the south. Also possibly to just wreck stuff and capture Russian defenders to reduce numbers. Possibly destroy infrastructure so Russians have a harder time attacking from that direction ever again. Ukraine doesn't plan on keeping the territory unlike Russia so they've got to be careful to keep their retreat paths open.

Are they planning to push all the way to Kursk city to shut down the power plant and destroy the airbase? They're literally halfway to the power station already.

 

[inCloud]

You imply that a car has a choice.

A vehicle is a vehicle. Any vehicle can and has been used by militaries for transportation, and eliminating vehicles eliminates the military's ability to function. As long as the people travelling in this car were spared, there is no problem with destroying the equipment.

Both burning down civilian vehicles and usage of those vehicles by military is war crimes. AFAIK, russian military police confiscating civilian vehicles that was used by military personnel at duty(saw few examples of Z-Bloggers wine about that).

I do not support any warcrimes, not sure about you.

 

[Joey D]

You imply that a car has a choice.

A vehicle is a vehicle. Any vehicle can and has been used by militaries for transportation, and eliminating vehicles eliminates the military's ability to function. As long as the people travelling in this car were spared, there is no problem with destroying the equipment.

Case in point:

 

[Carbonox]

Not sure what you trying to say. That Putin regime is disaster? I agree, but Russians were first victims of it. And now West carpet bombing us with sanctions simultaneously buying our resources from usurper.

How was it not clear? When your country got treated nicely, it only got more emboldened over time to attack foreign lands. If anything, the sanctions should've been harsher way back in 2014 to send a signal that invading Crimea and holding a bogus referendum was a red line, but apparent desperation for cheap gas defined foreign policy back then.

 

[Keef]

I do not support any warcrimes, not sure about you.

I don't either, but neither of us are the Russian military. The Russian military is on video many times using civilian vehicles to move or escape so they're more than willing to do it. Ukraine is stopping Russia from using tactics that they shouldn't be using. Russian soldiers on the front simply aren't following rules which means Ukraine needs to do what is necessary.

 

[inCloud]

When your country got treated nicely

Its not country being threaten nicely, its Putin being threaten nicely. He should being threaten like dictator since 2012, but everyone acted like our Constitution is a joke.

If anything, the sanctions should've been harsher way back in 2014 to send a signal that invading Crimea and holding a bogus referendum was a red line, but apparent desperation for cheap gas defined foreign policy back then.

Yes.

The Russian military is on video many times using civilian vehicles to move or escape so they're more than willing to do it.

Do they? Most of those videos have bad quality and its impossible to see cars plates.

Russian soldiers on the front simply aren't following rules which means Ukraine needs to do what is necessary.

I still don't think that bombing every civilian vehicle behind frontline is ok

 

[Scaff]

Do not support that in 2022 RF oil was golden or what?

No, it means that unless sanctions only existed for that year (and they didn't) then picking just that years alone is cherry picking.

Yes, but main goal of sanctions wasn't reached - war still here, people dying more than ever, human rights oppressed more than ever, even I tired of hypocrisy fest that West doing.

And this is why you cherry picked, to try and prove a point that when you take all the years together, it doesn't actually support.

Nice

No it means you literally can't ignore a member of the sites staff.

 

[Carbonox]

Its not country being threaten nicely, its Putin being threaten nicely. He should being threaten like dictator since 2012, but everyone acted like our Constitution is a joke.

If your elected officials couldn't be bothered to uphold the constitution, why should it be up for foreign countries to pick up the slack?

 

[FPV MIC]

If your elected officials couldn't be bothered to uphold the constitution, why should it be up for foreign countries to pick up the slack?

Is it a case of couldn't be bothered, or is it that they don't want to rock the boat because they're scared of falling out a window though?

Edit: I know I wouldn't want to be an elected official in Russia.

 

[Carbonox]

Is it a case of couldn't be bothered, or is it that they don't want to rock the boat because they're scared of falling out a window though?

Edit: I know I wouldn't want to be an elected official in Russia.

It's systematic.

Historically, no one's been worse at standing up for themselves than average Ruskies. Even the one revolution they had only took place because the Tsar was doing badly at war on top of being unpopular, and whatever leadership was born out of it was no improvement. Nowadays the serfs like to call themselves "apolitical" and eat up whatever 💩 their Dear Leader feeds them with a smile on their faces, only complaining about things they think they can blame the West for, and whenever the current genocidal war seeps over to their side of the border for a change.

Genuinely not sure why, given that a lifestyle where toilets are a luxury isn't exactly one where there's much to lose. Then again, invaders stealing Ukrainian toilets often have zero self-awareness and can only respond with anger over a "lesser" people having access to those while they in their superior glory don't.

(But fortunately despite that and the countless examples of soldiers getting rapey, it's just Putin's war.)

 

[eran0004]

Since late 2022? Nothing , never said it did.

You said that the sanctions are fuelling the Russian war machine. Are you now backtracking from that statement?

In 2022 he made more money than ever, right after he started war in Ukraine

What’s your source for that?

Since then, money flow is lowered, but he still rising salaries and one time payouts for contractors.

Which is more likely a sign that it’s getting more and more difficult for him to recruit, rather than that the economy is booming thanks to the sanctions.

Missiles with western chips inside still flying

Which (if true) means that the sanctions are not watertight. Not that they’re not having any effect. I bet those western chips are a lot more expensive for him now.

and oligarchs wifes still hanging at Azure cost.

How is that relevant?

 

[Tornado]

I'm having a had time believing that utilizing civilian vehicles for a war effort actually rises to a war crime to begin with. Like if you drove up in an unmarked SUV and started blasting opposing troops out of it, that would probably cross the line of perfidy, yeah. Stealing civilian vehicles and booking it from a firefight I cannot imagine would be considered as such in a trial; nor would destroying said vehicles in advance to prevent their usage for such ends. That one side is fighting a defensive total war in their own territory and the other is propagating one upon the other through invasion would also be taken into account if it ever actually came up.


Like who is going to charge Ukraine for destroying what is their own 🤬 to keep an invading country from using it against them or absconding with it?

 

[FPV MIC]

It's systematic.

Historically, no one's been worse at standing up for themselves than average Ruskies. Even the one revolution they had only took place because the Tsar was doing badly at war on top of being unpopular, and whatever leadership was born out of it was no improvement. Nowadays the serfs like to call themselves "apolitical" and eat up whatever 💩 their Dear Leader feeds them with a smile on their faces, only complaining about things they think they can blame the West for, and whenever the current genocidal war seeps over to their side of the border for a change.

Genuinely not sure why, given that a lifestyle where toilets are a luxury isn't exactly one where there's much to lose. Then again, invaders stealing Ukrainian toilets often have zero self-awareness and can only respond with anger over a "lesser" people having access to those while they in their superior glory don't.

(But fortunately despite that and the countless examples of soldiers getting rapey, it's just Putin's war.)

But can the average Russians actually stand up for themselves?

I don't know too much about the politics of that region but from an outsiders point of view it looks like if you go against Putin you're going out a window. There'll always be those that are willing to tow the line for personal gain too (also the type that more likely to get rapey).

I would hate to have been born in a dictatorship country, but we have no say in that, and it's very hard for those that are. Most have to tow the line with no chance of power and riches or there's a fair chance they'll be imprisoned or murdered. It just doesn't seem like there's much of a choice for average Joe Russian to me. ¯\(ツ)/¯

 

[Joey D]

But can the average Russians actually stand up for themselves?

Regime changes happen all over the world if enough people care. Just last week, people in Bangladesh rose up against their leader. While they're not always successful, sometimes they do bring about change. I'm sure some Russians are protesting the war in their own country, but it's not enough of them to make a difference. If they truly hated that they lived in a dictatorship, the citizens would band together, and there would be massive unrest. It's clear that they either accept what's going on or, at the very least, don't care.

Back in March, the Russians had an opportunity to enact change with their elections. Putin got 88.48% of the vote. Now, I doubt that the election was anything but free and fair, but if there were ever a time to rise up and make a point, it would've been then.

 

[Keef]

These boys ain't messing around. They're halfway to Kursk already.



On Maps the Kursk airbase is loaded I mean lo-ho-hoaded with Migs and Sukhois. They probably aren't there anymore since Ukraine can hit that territory with artillery but making sure that airbase stays unusable will be important regardless. There are also multiple large rail sidings and rail-connected factories in the area, an army depot, and the power plant to the west of Kursk. That purple line is a road toward Belgorod.

 

[FPV MIC]

Regime changes happen all over the world if enough people care. Just last week, people in Bangladesh rose up against their leader. While they're not always successful, sometimes they do bring about change. I'm sure some Russians are protesting the war in their own country, but it's not enough of them to make a difference. If they truly hated that they lived in a dictatorship, the citizens would band together, and there would be massive unrest. It's clear that they either accept what's going on or, at the very least, don't care.

Back in March, the Russians had an opportunity to enact change with their elections. Putin got 88.48% of the vote. Now, I doubt that the election was anything but free and fair, but if there were ever a time to rise up and make a point, it would've been then.

Yeah, I don't think anyone believes the results of that election (except maybe Trump )... and I would think that now would be the ideal time to rise up while their army has got it's hands full. The trouble I've been seeing is that Putin seems to be very good at killing off (literally) anyone that tries to go against him.

 

[Joey D]

Yeah, I don't think anyone believes the results of that election (except maybe Trump )... and I would think that now would be the ideal time to rise up while their army has got it's hands full. The trouble I've been seeing is that Putin seems to be very good at killing off (literally) anyone that tries to go against him.

Putin is good at making people disappear since he's ex-KGB, but Russia has 140 million people. All it would take is a fraction of the population to band together, and they'd eventually outnumber Putin and his cronies' influence. It only takes a small spark to start a revolution if the population is fed up enough.

 

[inCloud]

You said that the sanctions are fuelling the Russian war machine. Are you now backtracking from that statement

Yes, they boosted cash flow in 2022 and locking Russians and money inside RF till this day.

elected

By who?

why should it be up for foreign countries to pick up the slack

it only got more emboldened over time to attack foreign lands

?

Historically, no one's been worse at standing up for themselves than average Ruskies.

Half of Europe became democracies less then 70 years ago, most of Asia in worst dictatorship then we are. You just doing racist takes, don't do it. Everyone could be free, its just matter of circumstances.

Which is more likely a sign that it’s getting more and more difficult for him to recruit

Yes, obviously. Most already know what's happening at frontline.

What’s your source for that?

Russia - export of goods 2012-2023 | Statista

In 2023, about 423.9 billion U.S.

www.statista.com

But can the average Russians actually stand up for themselves?

We do, but everything needs right circumstances. Last time it was Prigojin coup, something like that could happen anytime

 

[Carbonox]

By who?

Probably not even elected officials, the point there was that the state, with its monopoly on violence, stood by and allowed him to extend term limits at will. If even people in powerful positions are that toothless and/or uncaring, that's on your system.

Half of Europe became democracies less then 70 years ago, most of Asia in worst dictatorship then we are. You just doing racist takes, don't do it. Everyone could be free, its just matter of circumstances.

You keep using that word...

 

[FPV MIC]

Putin is good at making people disappear since he's ex-KGB, but Russia has 140 million people. All it would take is a fraction of the population to band together, and they'd eventually outnumber Putin and his cronies' influence. It only takes a small spark to start a revolution if the population is fed up enough.

He seems to be very good at snuffing out any spark before it can take hold though.

We do, but everything needs right circumstances. Last time it was Prigojin coup, something like that could happen anytime

That really wasn't much of a coup from what I remember.

I don't think it was really a challenge of Putin's leadership but more like Prigozhin putting on a show to save his own arse while he still had some sort of power.

 

[McLaren]

You keep using that word...

It's deliciously ironic, personally. The guy who accused me of Godwin's Law is now the same person now crying, "You're racist" to anyone who makes a note about his country's population. Russians aren't a race of people, lol.

 

[RYAN]

But can the average Russians actually stand up for themselves?

I don't know too much about the politics of that region but from an outsiders point of view it looks like if you go against Putin you're going out a window. There'll always be those that are willing to tow the line for personal gain too (also the type that more likely to get rapey).

I would hate to have been born in a dictatorship country, but we have no say in that, and it's very hard for those that are. Most have to tow the line with no chance of power and riches or there's a fair chance they'll be imprisoned or murdered. It just doesn't seem like there's much of a choice for average Joe Russian to me. ¯\(ツ)/¯

The thing is, Who wants a free Russia? The Russian ruling elite don't for obvious reasons... The Russian people don't seem to want it no matter how poorly they are treated. Other than one or two nights of protests every couple of years, A few arrests will halt anything. Even the slaying of Navalny didn't cause much.

But the real problem is the Western powers at be doesn't want Russia to be truly free. They don't want to have to deal with the possibility of Russia splitting into multiple nuclear armed independencies.

So even by some miracle, If the Russian masses developed some self worth overnight who would be there to support them? There would be no CIA led colour revolution.

 

[eran0004]

Yes, they boosted cash flow in 2022 and locking Russians and money inside RF till this day.

I think I found the reason for your confusion. You’re looking at data that’s not adjusted for inflation. If you look at constant value or annual growth you’ll find that the exports dropped by 14% from 2021 to 2022.



And even if the exports would have increased, it would not have been because of the sanctions, because that’s not how economics work. Sanctions can be efficient or iniefficient, but never beneficial.

 

[inCloud]

That really wasn't much of a coup from what I remember.

He captured freaking city and than headed to Moscow, take down bunch birds in process. How its not a coup? He was scared and stopped, but every analytics saying he could reach Moscow and take it without fight. No way he could take control, but that could being turning point.

Prigozhin putting on a show to save his own arse

Guess it was a plan at first, when they captured Rostov. To overthrown Shoigu. When his card not played, he made new stake.

If even people in powerful positions are that toothless and/or uncaring, that's on your system.

How do you think autocracy working? Leader systematically killing institutions that balancing him. Why would 12 y/o Putins system doing something against him?

Russians aren't a race of people

IDK, google what racism means. When someone says that Russians are bad at something because of their ethnicity its racism. And if he continues doing it, I don't see any reason to argue with him.

A few arrests will halt anything.

You saying nonsense. 35% of those who was on last protests were arrested. Thousands.

it would not have been because of the sanctions

War started, Europe treating with sanctions, everyone buying oil and gas why they can, prices skyrocketing and everyone buying Russian goods while they can. Oil sanctions starting working in 2023 when big profit already in Moscow and transits redirected.

Its obviously not like Europe sanctioning something and its automatically becoming more profitable, but whole process of how sanctions were done are beneficial for regime.
In the end, everyone buying eachother goods with a tax, but somehow taxes aren't in pockets of EU that supplying Ukraine, but in Turkey, China, India and other countries.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Russians aren't a race of people, lol.

Your country, many countries, signed and ratified the UN's International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination, defining racial discrimination as "any distinction, exclusion, restriction or preference based on race, colour, descent, or national or ethnic origin".

 

[Joey D]

Your country, many countries, signed and ratified the UN's International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination, defining racial discrimination as "any distinction, exclusion, restriction or preference based on race, colour, descent, or national or ethnic origin".

I'm not sure the UN thought that one through very well. Saying "any distinction" means that you can't classify groups of people at all, which means referring to someone by their nationality would be considered racism. So if I said, "Oh you're from the UK," that would be a racist statement per the UN because I just classified you by country. I get what it's attempting to do; they're basically saying we're all one race, the human race, but I'm not sure that works very well for most discussions outside things like climate change.

Even then, it's funny that the member who liked your post is guilty of the same thing they apparently like. I mean, it's cute that @inCloud thinks people like myself and @Scaff are racists, while they themselves hate on Palestinians and think anyone who doesn't support Netanyahu or Israel is either antisemitic or a bad Jew.

 

[RYAN]

You saying nonsense. 35% of those who was on last protests were arrested. Thousands.

While that is a lot of people, In the grand scale of things if a few thousands of arrests every time is always enough to keep a population of 145m on a leash nothing will change.

 

[McLaren]

IDK, google what racism means.

Do that yourself. Nobody has been racist towards you.