Tesla Master Plan: Part Deux

[EngieDiesel]

EV’s typically don’t explode when they catch fire. They may burn intensely and be difficult to extinguish due to thermal runaway in the battery. Under special circumstances a battery may explode, if the heat causes flammable gas to be released prior to ignition. Keep in mind that a petrol car may explode as well, if the gas tank is ruptured so that petrol fumes escape and mix with air prior to ignition.

By Swedish statistics there were 46 fires in EV cars in 2025. There were more than 1 million registered EV cars in the country the same period, which meant that 0.004% of the cars caught fire that year. No explosions were recorded, there were two cases where thermal runaway caused jet flames.

Meanwhile there were around 2800 fires in ICE cars that year. There were 4 million of those cars registered, so 0.07% of those caught fire during the year.

By those statistics, an ICE car is roughly 20 times more likely to catch fire.

The numbers will always be skewed towards ICE cars simply because there are exponentially more of them in existence, but looking past that they're still going to be more of fire risk due to having multiple types of pressurized, highly flammable liquids flowing in an extremely hot central location through hoses that degrade over time and can rupture or melt in unpredictable ways. With an EV or hybrid, the battery packs likely won't experience thermal runaway unless they've been poorly manufactured, physically damaged or overcharged for extended periods.

EV batteries have a lot of flaws in their current state, but they're not Samsung Galaxy Note 9 levels of dangerous.

 

[eran0004]

The numbers will always be skewed towards ICE cars simply because there are exponentially more of them in existence

That’s accounted for by looking at fires as a percentage of the number of registered cars. 0.004% of the registered EV’s caught fire in 2025, and 0.07% of the registered ICE cars. 0.07/0.004=17.5, or around 20.

So the average ICE car in Sweden in 2025 was around 20 times more likely to catch fire than the average EV.

If we look at the number of fires instead, there were around 60 ICE fires for every EV fire that year.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

I'd guess that most ICE vehicles that catch fire are due to failing components due to age and lack of maintenance. There are significantly more of those vehicles on the roads than BEVs of any type. BEVs seem to catch on fire due to manufacturer defects and/or poor design. I'm gonna say that both are bad, but BEV fires tend to be more destructive and catastrophic because it's the entire energy source burning at once, which would be extraordinarily rare in an ICE vehicle where fires usually happen in the engine compartment far from the fuel tank and can usually be put out with a fire extinguisher if reached in time.

To the original point of whether or not the compressed air tank makes things worse? Well, it probably doesn't make it better.

 

[Scaff]

To the original point of whether or not the compressed air tank makes things worse? Well, it probably doesn't make it better.

Nitrogen, not air, they are Cold Gas Thrusters powered by compressed nitrogen. Very inert.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Nitrogen, not air, they are Cold Gas Thrusters powered by compressed nitrogen. Very inert.

There's nothing inert about a carbon fiber tank at 10,000psi rupturing Reddit says its equivalent to just shy of 6kg of TNT.

 

[eran0004]

There's nothing inert about a carbon fiber tank at 10,000psi rupturing Reddit says its equivalent to just shy of 6kg of TNT.

Would certainly be interesting to see a crash test of the car.

 

[Scaff]

There's nothing inert about a carbon fiber tank at 10,000psi rupturing Reddit says its equivalent to just shy of 6kg of TNT.

The gas is inert, the tank may or may not be, the liner in most are pretty good at minimising explosive loss (assuming Tesla QA is OK).

 

[eran0004]

(assuming Tesla QA is OK)

I suppose the nitrogen COPV goes under SpaceX QA. One of those appear to have caused the detonation of Starship 36 last year:

The most probable root cause was identified as undetectable or under screened damage to a composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV) in Starship’s payload bay section, which failed and resulted in structural failure of the vehicle causing subsequent propellant mixing and ignition. The COPVs in the payload section store gaseous nitrogen for use in the Starship environmental control system.

Obviously the Roadster won’t be filled with rocket fuel, but if the COPV can cause catastrophic damage to Starship’s propellant tanks then it can probably do some nasty things to the Roadster and its surroundings.

 

[05XR8]

I guess the invitation only owners would have to live where the fuel supply is. Imagine the refill shipping cost for an owner in Australia.