How would one determine if a game will succeed or "die" or fail, well there's critical success (or likely purchased reviews these days-fm), meta reviews and consumer feedback (often bombed and manipulated-STEs-snowflakeToxicEgos), or sales (and compared with production costs), so just looking at the racing game market data, it's quite a bit saturated at the moment, most have to have strong Real world tie in's, such as Formula 1, WRC or multiple decades/birth generations of brand recognition. The critically best like Live For Speed, BeamNG, Wreckfest have great sales and communities since the community is actively
involved in the progression of the platforms. data from gamalytic
Racers do not want to be boxed in and told how they are to play, or that racing is only valid in 1 way that is dictated to them. They will go elsewhere. and should.
It's pretty clear to see that racers want options, lots and lots of options to be virtual gear heads, and the better the platforms provide wide breadth of options, the more online players there are. Many enjoy the offline worlds in solitude, many enjoy events and comradery with like minded gatherings. I am not seeing the community driven options and breadth in TDU. It may appear down the road, but right now, after record number of titles released in the past 18 months, that now to succeed, especially as a AAA title, you better understand game design and how to make this as approachable and diverse for everything from junk yard parts swapping mechanic gear heads ( Still nostalgic for that Motor City Online ) to engineers analyzing spreadsheets and graphs and telemetry to help their driver reduce fuel consumption 2.6%, on through artists creating incredible body work, and wide body kits, and liveries. The genre is ripe with folks who will spend money ( have you seen these multiple thousand dollar sim rigs out here... ), despite a vocal minority constantly looking for cheap stuff - who quickly learn, often the expensive way, that quality is much less expensive and far more enjoyable than cheap over time.
It's remarkably daft how far off the pace the AAA titles and big studios are from the market. Egos gonna do that. The game design that draws big sales and huge long lived player gratitude and enjoyment have remained the same for decades now. Fools distracted by noise and sizzle trying to build from the ground up really have lost there way.
Most titles with product release iterations likely should have stopped new products a decade ago and released quarterly DLC to constantly expand and grow them as platforms. New releases rarely add more than they take away, hence why many see N-2 releases as far greater than the messes we have seen in these huge gluts of releases - 256 in 2023 AND 173 so far this year.
Quality over quantity. The big obvious gap from the turn of the century and still ignored is that core developer studios should be working with mod projects to officially integrate into their titles ( aka minecraft servers ). Or even better ensure the platform provides the tools so users can easily create and share, just like liveries, helmets, etc So HUD designs, track building, and engine building and game mode .
This is why Gran Theft Auto is leaps and bounds beyond all the rest combined, and often many racing games. They simply understand 3 fundamental critical core things = proper game design/Story,
OPTIONS, and community integration & expansion.
I am not seeing compelling awareness of this in TDU. It may be there, it may come, but what is presented does not reflect it now though.