The Inconvenient Truth About Hybrids: Hybrids Owners Get More Tickets?

[Joey D]

I've been in several discussion both here on GTP and in real life over the past couple of days about hybrids, and one thing that really bothers me is that people think that while saving the planet they will be saving money in the fuel department because hybrids are supposed to be more fuel efficient. Well I'm out to prove through the numbers how that isn't the case. I'm not going to argue that a hybrid will be greener then a non-hybrid...if you negate the building process involved.

For this I'll be using the avg price of a gallon of petrol in the US of $2.75 and the avg price for a gallon of diesel of $2.85. I'm going to assume that most Americans drive on avg 12,000 miles per year as well. If you want to change these numbers to reflect your driving style it should be fairly simple.

To obtain the avg fuel economy I will assume an avg of the city and highway estimates, if there is a better way please inform me so I can change everything accordingly.

Round One: Putting the Prius on Trial Reprinted with permission from myself

A 2008 Toyota Prius starts at $22,175 according to the Toyota American website. The fuel economy is rated at 60 mpg city and 51 mpg highway. The 2008 Toyota Corolla, a car of similar size and interior room starts at $15,205 according to the same site. The fuel economy is rated at 26 mpg city and 35 mpg highway. The difference in price is $6,970.

The Prius according to Edmunds.com through the Toyota site can go 714 miles in the city and 607 miles on the highway, if you average it out you can in theory go 660 miles.

The Corolla according to Edmunds.com through the Toyota site can go 343 miles in the city and 462 miles on the highway, if you average it out you can in theory go 402 miles.

A different of 258 miles.

The Prius has a 12 gallon gas tank, which at $2.75 a gallon would be $33.00 to fill it up if it was empty. The Corolla has a 13 gallon tank, which at $2.75 a gallon would be $35.75 to fill up. A price difference of, obliviously, $2.75.

I'm going to say most Americans drive about 12,000 miles per year, is this a fair estimate? I drive less but then again I don't drive all that much.

At this you would have to fill up the Prius about 18 times, which mean the final fuel bill would be $594 for the fuel bill. For the Corolla you would have to fill up 30 times $1072.50 for the final fuel bill. This is a difference of $478.50.

At this rate you would have to own the Prius 14 and a half years for the fuel savings to balance out if you bought one over a Corolla…I don’t know about you but I don’t think most people own a car that long.


Round Two: Escaping the Truth

Ford has recently made their Escape small SUV into a hybrid model, but does the extra cost really save you any money at the pump? Lets go through the math.

The normal FWD Escape XLS I4 with the automatic transmission (face it you aren't going to buy a manual one of these) comes in at $19,700 and has an EPA fuel estimate of 20 city and 26 highway giving an average of 23mpg overall. Being able to put 16.5 gallons of petrol in the tank and driving it till it died would take you 379.5 miles.

The hybrid FWD Escape comes in at $25,075 and has an EPA fuel estimate of 34 city and 30 highway giving it an average of 32mpg overall. Being able to put 15 gallons in the tank will take you 480 before you run out of petrol.

So here you have the same SUV, but a $5,375 price difference and only a 100.5 fuel average distance.

Ok so here you are driving along at you 12,000 miles a year, the XLS would mean you would have to fill up 32 times per year at a cost of $45.38 per fill up or $1,452 per year while the hybrid would mean you'd have to fill up 25 times a year at a cost of $41.25 or $1,031.25. A difference of $420.75.

This means it would take 12.75 years recoup the money you spent on the hybrid model. Suddenly spending that extra $5,375 on solar panels for your house doesn't seem so bad.

Round Three: My Car is Better then Your Camry

The Toyota Camry is the best selling car in America if I'm not mistaken, so just how much better off with you be with the hybrid model? I'm guessing not much better.

The Camry will run you $18,570 and get you 21 city and 31 highway giving you an average of 26 mpg. With the 18.5 gallon fuel tank you can go 481 miles before you are dead in the water.

The Camry Hybrid will run you $25,200 and get you 33 city and 34 highway giving you an average of 33.5 mpg. With the 17.2 gallon fuel tank you can go 576.2 miles before you run out of fuel.

Same car, $6,630 price difference and a 95.2 range difference. This isn't looking good for Mr. Hybrid Camry.

The Camry would need to be filled up 25 times per year at $50.88 per fill up or $1,271.88 per year (**this stuck me as high). The Hybrid would need to be filled up 21 times per year meaning that it would cost you $47.30 to fill up and $993.30 per year. A difference of $278.58.

A hybrid Camry would take 23.75 years to balance out cost wise...seriously that's about a quarter of your life.

Round Four: Do it Diesels

For this I'm using a 2004 Jetta at the prices they were sold at by VW three years ago. Since we don't really have diesels for sale here in the states it's the best I could do.

MSRP on a 04 Jetta GL with the 2.0L 115hp engine would have ran $17,430 and got 24 city and 31 highway, leaving you with an average of 27.5mpg.

TDI version of the same car would have ran $18,670 and got 38 city and 46 highway leaving you with an average of 42 mpg.

A difference of $1,240 and 14.5 mpg.

The petrol version had a 14.5 gallon tank meaning it could go 398.75 miles before becoming empty.

Mr. TDI could has the same 14.5 gallon tank meaning it could go 609 miles before being empty.

The cars have a $1,240 price difference and a 210.25 range difference. This is looking good for diesel cars so far.

The petrol version would need to be filled up 30 times per year at $39.88 per fill up time and $1196.25 for the year.

The TDI version would need to be filled up 20 time per year at $41.33 per fill up and $826.60 per year. Leaving you a difference of $396.65.

This means you would have to own the TDI 3 years in order to recoup your initial investment.

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Bottom line, you are better off owning a diesel, followed by petrol, followed by a hybrid.

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Articles
- Mini Cooper D More Eco-Friendly Then Most Hybrids
- First Diesel Available in California
- Toyota Not as Green as They Claim
- Study: Hybrids' residuals will trail gasoline versions
- Hybrid Owners are Liberals
- E85 a Bad Choice for Consumers
- Are Hybrids a Danger to the Blind?
- Do Hybrids Save Energy?
- How Many Miles Must a Person Drive?
- The Prius is Not the Most Cost Effective
- 66% of UK Drivers Going Green, Hybrids Still Not the Answer
- Do Hybrids Cause Cancer?
- Boy Hit by Hybrid Because it was to Quite
- Brits Think Hybrids are too Expensive
- Hybrids Driven More, More Expensive to Fix and...Get More Tickets?

 

[High-Test]

Wow. Thank you for getting that info out there, Joey. You're using accurate figures provided by the companies themselves and using the same methods for comparing. 👍


Now, the "Oil Alternatives" or, the "Aren't hydrogen cars great?" thread can get back on topic, or try to.

 

[Tornado]

I'm personally somewhat surprised the Escape doesn't have a better ratio. It was the only one I actually thought came close to balancing out fuel costs.
On he diesel comparison, one must also keep in mind that diesel prices fluctuate randomly. Sometimes diesel is priced based on energy per liter (making it cost more than 87-octane fuel) and sometimes it is priced based on refining costs.
For example, currently diesel is $2.89 a gallon and 87 octane is $2.93.

 

[Philly]

I had always thought that the Prius would be the only one to break even in ten years. Apparently not. The thing about alternatives, is that they become better as the price goes up. A diesel would still be best, because, as I recall, diesel doesn't fluctuate much in price.

I'm glad to have something to go after hybrids with, though:tup:!

 

[JCE]

That sir is a 100% brilliant write up. I'd give you +rep if I could.

 

[retsmah]

Can't speak for all hybrid owners, but the one person I know who bought a Prius did not buy it to save money, and knew ahead of time that he would not be saving any money with it.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

At least they're saving gas for the rest of the petrol users.

 

[YSSMAN]

A very good write-up!

I've been screaming about diesels for years, and I'm fairly certain that I may attempt to get one in my next car. Its too bad most Americans wouldn't care to do the research and figure this out before they buy their cars...

 

[JCE]

Anyone in the US watch that Pimp my Ride where they take a '64 Impala and put that GM Duramax diesel engine in it and boosted the power and drag raced it against a Gallardo (and won)?

 

[Tornado]

Anyone in the US watch that Pimp my Ride where they take a '64 Impala and put that GM Duramax diesel engine in it and boosted the power and drag raced it against a Gallardo (and won)?

Yeah. I remember laughing at how incredibly staged it was (the Gallardo looked like it was accelerating at half throttle all the way down the track).

 

[Wolfe]

A good write-up, but if I'm honest, the idea of saving money at the gas pump has always been one of the weakest and least-relevant arguments in the hybrid's favor. I'm not trying to belittle the work you put into this, it's just the truth.

Hybrids, or at least the original concept (as best-represented by the Prius), are intended to reduce emissions. Full stop.

Anyone looking for fuel economy should look for a diesel.

 

[Philly]

Hybrids, or at least the original concept (as best-represented by the Prius), are intended to reduce emissions. Full stop.

This makes me question the current goal of the hybrid. The originals were intended to "save the earth." It seems to me that now that Toyota is starting to use a saving money type of scheme, because people will buy it. Now, it just seems like it's just the thing to have.

 

[JCE]

Yeah. I remember laughing at how incredibly staged it was (the Gallardo looked like it was accelerating at half throttle all the way down the track).

I don't think its so out of the question for a diesel to be fast at the ¼mi. Locally there are a handful of super duty diesel pickups that run fast times.

 

[Casio]

In agreeance with Wolfe and retsmah. Not everyone buys the most financially sensible option, or are buying a Prius because they think it saves money because of fuel costs. People still buy 318i BMWs when you can get faster, roomier and more economical cars for much less money. It just comes down to personal choice, and if someone wants a relatively technologically advanced car, which has clean emissions, and isn’t draining the world’s oil supply and killing the trees, then a Prius is a good choice.

I’m sure a lot of you have brought a ream of recycled paper before for a couple of extra dollars or cents. I always do, I get no extra performance out of the paper, and it doesn’t look any different. Some people are just willing to pay extra for peace of mind and a feeling of contribution I guess.

 

[YSSMAN]

The problem is, I can understand someone buying a 318i over say a VW Passat simply because its a BMW. With the Prius, I just outright can't understand why anyone would want it. They're too expensive for what you get (not necessarily the price of the vehicle overall, but what you eventually have to replace), the benefits are minimal, furthermore, brings little to no joy of driving... Much less living.

It leaves me scratching my head when someone would choose a Prius (or any hybrid in general) over a VW Jetta TDI. They're cheaper, better-looking, more comfortable, and get better fuel economy (using 2008 standards). But because they burn diesel they're the scum of the Earth?

I'll do my part when the time comes, but I'm still not cashing-in on the Hybrid mess.

And no, even if GM does a hybrid, I still don't like it...

 

[a6m5]

Nice work, Joey. 👍

I don't think I'll own a hybrid car anytime soon, but when it comes to Prius, it is true that fuel economy isn't the sole selling point for this car. It's a gadget, it's unique, etc., maybe even political, though I'm not saying I agree with any of that, personally. I support the hybrid technology, but I don't believe it's quite there yet.

Most buyers of Escape Hybrids on the other hand, I get the impression that they buy them for fuel economy. Many come away dissapointed with the results as well.

I am always concerned with fuel economy, and I've almost always owned a 4-cylinder car. My current '04 Altima engine's my favorite, as it gets pretty good mileage for a midsize sedan(rated 23/29), but has as much power as an decade old V-6's(175hp/180lbs). Next time around, I'd like to get something even smaller along lines of Civic or Fit. I'd buy a car with small gas engine before I'd buy a diesel. Hybrid would be an even less likely option for me.

 

[SRV2LOW4ME]

Excellent write up! +Rep ol' chap 👍


I'm so bringing a print out of this post with me the next time I go see my aunt (the "our world is dying because your calculator isn't solar" woman).

 

[Gil]

I'm personally somewhat surprised the Escape doesn't have a better ratio. It was the only one I actually thought came close to balancing out fuel costs.
On he diesel comparison, one must also keep in mind that diesel prices fluctuate randomly. Sometimes diesel is priced based on energy per liter (making it cost more than 87-octane fuel) and sometimes it is priced based on refining costs.
For example, currently diesel is $2.89 a gallon and 87 octane is $2.93.

Let me take that one a bit further.
My 2005 Excursion is a turbo diesel and is capable of about 17-20 mpg depending on how much below 80mph I keep it.
Over 80 mph, I get just under 16 mpg.

The gas powered Excursion with either the v-8 or v10 pull down gas mileage in the single digits. Even the Expidition only gets 13 with the 5.4L V-8.

There is some difference in price for the diesel vs. the gas. But the diesel makes scads more power, gets about twice the mileage, can tow more, but can't be driven thru a drive thru with out being shut down due to the noise.
I'm pretty sure that I came out ahead. on all fronts.

 

[Rotary Junkie]

a6m5: You'll be saddened to know that a 1990 Buick gets better fuel economy than your Altima, while using a 3.8l V6.

On a trip up from Florida, my dad's Buick Park Avenue got a worst of 29mpg and a best of 36mpg, all freeway. I find it strange that we can't seem to make a lighter car with less engine get better fuel economy. Wait, your Altima probably turns 3k on the freeway, doesn't it? Might need more fuel to spin it that high than to keep a 3800 barley spinning at 12-1600rpm.

Still don't make sense.

 

[Joey D]

Many people that I talk to in the buying public tell me they are going to be buying a hybrid because they are sick of the high gas prices. Even the local Toyota dealership advertises that you can save money and "stomp out high gas prices" with a hybrid model. My point was to prove that's not the case.

 

[a6m5]

a6m5: You'll be saddened to know that a 1990 Buick gets better fuel economy than your Altima, while using a 3.8l V6.

On a trip up from Florida, my dad's Buick Park Avenue got a worst of 29mpg and a best of 36mpg, all freeway. I find it strange that we can't seem to make a lighter car with less engine get better fuel economy. Wait, your Altima probably turns 3k on the freeway, doesn't it? Might need more fuel to spin it that high than to keep a 3800 barley spinning at 12-1600rpm.

Still don't make sense.

23/29 for Altima, they are from EPA. Give me that Buick, I will not get 29 or 36. Different drivers get different mileage. In regular city driving, I actually average only about 20 miles to a gallon, but without traffic, I can manage high 20's(I have a stickshift).

 

[Rotary Junkie]

That said Buick was at 80 most of the time, except for when my aunt was driving (70 then).

The wheels/tires are slightly out of balance, and the car "wobbles" at 70, then go a little faster or slower and it goes away.

Average for my dad's LeSabre (which is running a little off) in the city is about 20 mpg. Same motor, same basic car. (The LeSabre is out of commission ATM, it needs front shocks that we're too cheap to get. It was just the beater for going into town and such, as it was nowhere near perfect, and we don't mind dirtying it.)

Soo...Your Altima, my mom's 6i, etc. all suck.

Only problem with the Buwickeds (worse in the LeSabre, it has a cheapo aftermarket fuel pump that runs a different boot than stock and doesn't grab fuel as well) is that they sometimes starve on fuel on long rights with a low tank. (But the LeSabre leaves 3" of fuel in the tank when it quits pumping.)

Ah well. Yesterday's trash beats today's treasure.

 

[a6m5]

Rotary Junkie, what 1990 Buick are you talking about? Also, on freeway, I manage minimum of mid-30's mpg according to the onboard computer.

 

[niky]

Good work, but you're missing one thing.

The EPA new testing regimen has finally re-rated the Prius to reflect real-world driving. In other words, slower urban traffic (in which the batteries are depleted faster) and faster highway traffic (in which the assist motor plays absolutely no part). The Prius is now rated at 48/45

26 / 35 is the new estimate of the Corolla... the old one was as high as 38 mpg, I believe.

Given the worst possible conditions for the Corolla (urban traffic), at 12000 miles a year, that's a difference (at $2.75 per gallon) of $581 per year, or about 12 years to break even.

Given highway conditions at 12000 miles a year, that's $183 per year in savings, or 38 years to break even.

Combined, that's 25 years, on average.

You can probably knock 6 months to 2 years off of that, considering the Corolla will need more brake maintenance than the Prius over that period of time and will need more oil on the oil change, but at 25 years, you're looking at a battery pack replacement, for sure, which would push the break-even point back another couple of years.

Factor in the manual transmission Corolla, and that adds another few years to the calculations.

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Saving the world is all well and good, but buying a cheap and economical car that gets good mileage (seriously, buy a manual) and doesn't cost too much to produce does a good job of that, as well. And lots of new cars have very low emissions, with some conventional gasoline engines now getting SULEV ratings. And diesels are a lot cleaner than they used to be... with modern particulate filters, European diesels are very clean... and very fuel efficient... remember, the better the MPG, the lower the overall CO2 emissions.

Personally, I enjoyed driving the Prius when it passed through these hands, but after crunching the figures over and over, I still don't see the point except as an ostentatious display of technology applied to the singular goal of maximum fuel economy (sort of like the Porsche Cayenne... give it a ton of technology to do the same thing a Jeep can do for a lot less).

In other words, it's a premium performance car for non-hooligans. I personally wouldn't buy one, but I wouldn't say "no" if you dropped one in my lap.

 

[GilesGuthrie]

Good work, but you're missing one thing.

The EPA new testing regimen has finally re-rated the Prius to reflect real-world driving. In other words, slower urban traffic (in which the batteries are depleted faster) and faster highway traffic (in which the assist motor plays absolutely no part). The Prius is now rated at 48/45

This is interesting. I considered looking at a Civic Hybrid when we were looking for a new car for my wife, but it was out of budget.

Her driving profile is centred around commuting to/from work, on roads which are either running in the 40-70mph range or stationary. Her 6 mile commute takes 50 minutes, the first three miles take 45 minutes. My view was that she could do the stationary stuff largely on the battery, then when the road sped up, she'd run the engine, but because she'd only be calling upon 50% of its power, it could quietly recharge the batteries. This would mean that she'd spend approximately 80% of the journey time, and 50% of the journey distance with the engine off. I believe that it is only in these sorts of conditions that a hybrid can offer a useful consumption improvement over a properly sorted diesel.

niky, is your point that hybrids can't achieve the sort of journey profile that I'm talking about?

 

[Rafa]

A magazine proov in the cost to produce and in the consume terms,a toyota prius is more polutive then a hummvy

 

[Joey D]

niky I just took the figures from the manufactures website so whatever they list their cars as is what I used. Where can I find the new figures? Would they be on the EPA's website?

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After doing some looking around on the internet I've come to the conclusion that a gallon of biodiesel is $2.50 (it could be a lot lower though), even without doing the math one can see buying a TDI Jetta and turning it into something that could run on biodiesel is more cost effective then buying a Prius or other hybrid. Plus you are saving the environment as well. I'm going to continue to get all the numbers before I run through the math on this one but I have a feeling it's going to be the better deal.

 

[Philly]

Her driving profile is centred around commuting to/from work, on roads which are either running in the 40-70mph range or stationary. Her 6 mile commute takes 50 minutes, the first three miles take 45 minutes. My view was that she could do the stationary stuff largely on the battery, then when the road sped up, she'd run the engine, but because she'd only be calling upon 50% of its power, it could quietly recharge the batteries. This would mean that she'd spend approximately 80% of the journey time, and 50% of the journey distance with the engine off. I believe that it is only in these sorts of conditions that a hybrid can offer a useful consumption improvement over a properly sorted diesel.

This is definitly where a hybrid would do best. Having the engine off when the car is at a standstill is vital. All of that stopped freeway would be like having the car off, unless you actually have to do some real acceleration. In the city, you could probably manage to keep the car mostly on battery power. The problem I see is that the battery would probably drain, and you would have to at least keep the engine idling (if not revved) to charge the batteries, much like a diesel-electric train works.

 

[neanderthal]

good number crunching from OP. im fully in agreement with just about everything you say but im gonna play devils advocate for a minute here. this is just to encourage thinking outside of the the mindset of whatever the herd is currently embracing, which here is the stated opinion that hybrids are a waste of time and money. also, because no one else seems to be playing devils advocate

you're forgetting that the hybrids are touted as green cars not only for their supposed better milage but more importantly for thier emissions, as already pointed out by wolfe and hamster.

japanese and european prii have a higher threshold before the gas motor kicks in, making it possible to actually go on electric power alone at speeds up to about 30, or higher (i think!!!) so for those in traffic clogged areas like in los angeles, new york ****ty and so on, its theoretically possible to hum along to work without engaging the gas motor if they do the euro/ JDM mod. this theoretically increases the hybrids MPG. but we can never know how much unless someone actually tests it against a comparable corolla. and lets face it, the test (route, timing other factors) could easily be skewed for either car to have an advantage.

there are those who have also converted thier prii to be plug in cars, again negating the need for the gas motor. this again increases the MPG. im not going to go into the evil effects of increased powerplant emissions wherever the power is being generated but we know that to be the case. unless this tree hugging prius driver has solar panels installed at their home. and i know one person who does drive a hybrid and has solar panels.

there is also the time value of money to be considered. in california, hybrids can park for free in most areas, and can drive in the carpool lane with only one occupant if the driver bothered to get a sticker from DMV. toyota is out of stickers as there is a certain limit per manufacturer but honda and ford still have em. so your supposedly cheaper to operate gas powered corolla/ civic/ escape/ camry will be sitting in traffic while those with stickered hybrids will be meandering along just a little bit faster in the carpool lane. this increases the emissions of the gas powered cars and nets them 0 mpg every time they are stopped and idling. and remember a hybrid turns off when "idling."

BMWs stop start system will greatly negate that idling advantage that hybrids currently have. And when mainstream vehicles all employ a similar system, the hybrids advantage will go down considerably.

This is interesting. I considered looking at a Civic Hybrid when we were looking for a new car for my wife, but it was out of budget.
....................
I believe that it is only in these sorts of conditions that a hybrid can offer a useful consumption improvement over a properly sorted diesel.

wrong hybrid.

the civic doesnt drive on battery power alone as its a "mild" hybrid, one where it uses a gas engine all the time with electrical assist as needed.
the toyota ones are strong(?) hybrids which can run on electrical power alone.

 

[neanderthal]

niky I just took the figures from the manufactures website so whatever they list their cars as is what I used. Where can I find the new figures? Would they be on the EPA's website?

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After doing some looking around on the internet I've come to the conclusion that a gallon of biodiesel is $2.50 (it could be a lot lower though), even without doing the math one can see buying a TDI Jetta and turning it into something that could run on biodiesel is more cost effective then buying a Prius or other hybrid. Plus you are saving the environment as well. I'm going to continue to get all the numbers before I run through the math on this one but I have a feeling it's going to be the better deal.

please dont confuse bio diesel (diesel with organic oil blend) with waste vegetable oil (used fry oil from your local heart attack emporium!)
bio diesel is generally MORE expensive than regular diesel but has a greener image even though it takes lots of other diesel powered vehicles to harvest it and other electrical powered ones to process it.