The Sports Betting Thread

[mustafur]

Anyone out there a keen sports better?

I've been betting Semi seriously for about a year building a steady profit betting on mostly Football, Rugby and generally anything I have a decent knowledge on.

shame that some Bookmakers will ban you from their service if you make consistent profit on their platform.

Anyway I thought I would use this Thread for people to post their tips for some good value bets.

 

[mustafur]

Tips for Today(Using Bet365):

Value bet - Daniel Ricciardo to Lead after 10 laps at $9.00 (He is the highest On the grid on the Harder supersofts, last year the Leader Rosberg pit at lap 10 on that tyre, but everyone around Ricciardo is on Ultras so it's doubtful the others haven't pitted before lap 10).

Best Bet - Nice (-1 Handicap) vs Bastia at Home $2.60

Nice are the most in form side in the French Ligue 1 at the Moment should have the ability to beat Bastia with ease even if it was away, but at home it makes it easier, really wondering why the odds are soo high tbh.

Those new to this, Value bets should always be the minimum bet size and Best bets generally can be higher as chances are better.

 

[Akmuq]

I'll contribute to this more when I'm not doing exams, but just want to know are they decimal odds or are you posting your stake?

 

[mustafur]

Yes, I don't do fractional odds.

Shame both my bets lost, Ricciardo literally pitted 1 lap earlier in the Lead which made me lose that bet.

 

[mustafur]

Value bet: Zenit St Petersburg at $3.25 Vs AZ Alkmaar Away.
Zenit are on another level when it comes to their group in Europa, undefeated and have had no trouble dismantling every side they have came across with only Dundalk funnily enough giving them close games, Should be a comfortable win for Zenit, however should be noted that they might go light on this game given they have already made it to the next round where it's a must win for AZ to get to the next stage, however the quality is large enough here to go for it.

Best Bet: RB Leipzig at $2.00 Vs Schalke at Home. Schalke have been a patchy side all season mid table after 12 games don't really look like they will be a top 4 side this year, where as Leipzig have had supreme form all season, everything pulls heavily towards Leipzig here and the only reason the odds are still 2 dollars is because bookies haven't fully respected this title charge yet as Bayern is still at $1.14 to win the Bundesliga.

 

[adamp93]

I just got an offer from betfair where if I put a £5 bet on anything I get a free £5 bet. My fiver went on West Ham v Arsenal to have less than 4 goals (1.55) and the free bet on there being 4 or more(2.62). Worst case scenario that £5 becomes £7.75
Edit: since I don't get the stake back for a free bet those 6 goals got me £8.13

 

[mustafur]

Value bet: Zenit St Petersburg at $3.25 Vs AZ Alkmaar Away.
Zenit are on another level when it comes to their group in Europa, undefeated and have had no trouble dismantling every side they have came across with only Dundalk funnily enough giving them close games, Should be a comfortable win for Zenit, however should be noted that they might go light on this game given they have already made it to the next round where it's a must win for AZ to get to the next stage, however the quality is large enough here to go for it.

Best Bet: RB Leipzig at $2.00 Vs Schalke at Home. Schalke have been a patchy side all season mid table after 12 games don't really look like they will be a top 4 side this year, where as Leipzig have had supreme form all season, everything pulls heavily towards Leipzig here and the only reason the odds are still 2 dollars is because bookies haven't fully respected this title charge yet as Bayern is still at $1.14 to win the Bundesliga.

So Leipzig won 2-1 at home after a good competitive game, If Bookmakers continue to under value this side i feel we will be getting quite a few bet's for this team going forward, especially if they are over $8 to beat Bayern.

Zenit still to play later on this week.

Got a few more bets to add going forward this week:

Value Bet: Leicester +1 Vs Porto Away at $3.50
Leicester are the top team of this Group and go into this game with good group form, Porto are going to be favourites but i feel the game will be close either way and with massive odds the bookies are giving for Leicester it's too tempting to take it.

Best Bet: Real Madrid at $1.90 to beat Dortmund at home.
This is easily one of the best bets to come around in a while, Real have hit some form in the last few weeks, and with the poor showings at the early stage of the group behind them they should be good odds to win the game and take the group lead.

 

[mustafur]

I just got an offer from betfair where if I put a £5 bet on anything I get a free £5 bet. My fiver went on West Ham v Arsenal to have less than 4 goals (1.55) and the free bet on there being 4 or more(2.62). Worst case scenario that £5 becomes £7.75
Edit: since I don't get the stake back for a free bet those 6 goals got me £8.13

Got to take advantage while you can lol.

 

[adamp93]

Got to take advantage while you can lol.

One of the few things I remember from uni is the concept of arbitrage from mathematical finance, where it should be impossible to make an instant, risk free profit. Betfair clearly don't know about it

 

[mustafur]

One of the few things I remember from uni is the concept of arbitrage from mathematical finance, where it should be impossible to make an instant, risk free profit. Betfair clearly don't know about it

unfortunetly for me in Australia, they make it hard to do that on live betting as we have to call up to make bets on games already started taking out the profitable live betting arbitrage strategy out with it.

 

[Akmuq]

City are putting out the kids against Celtic, so I've gone for a small punt on Celtic to win at 8.00.

Probably more value in a handicap but I didn't really check.