What is Partial/Conditional Autonomous Driving Worth?

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Danoff

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Tell me how much you would pay to have a vehicle that can perform at the level of each of the autonomous levels for your own personal use (brand new vehicle)? How did you arrive at that number? I'm not really understanding the demand, desire, or use of levels 2 and 3 of autonomous driving.
 
Difficult to put a price on it (I can't afford any new vehicle right now, let alone one with autonomous features of any level), but I like Alex Roy's take on what self-driving cars should offer. More augmentation than economy. Humans still in control, but airline-style failsafes that prevent the human from getting into trouble.

Things like ABS and stability control already do it to a degree but he argues they're primitive and misunderstood (how many regular normal drivers actually know what ABS is, what it does, or what it allows them to do in an emergency, despite it being available on vehicles for decades?), but extra augmentation would do things like prevent a driver from accidentally pulling out of a junction into the path of a motorcycle the driver hasn't seen, or not allow a steering response that would pull someone on the freeway into the path of a truck.

I've driven a few cars that fit into the Level 2 definition. Their main benefit, I think, is in reducing the mental processing of certain types of journey. I'm not a fan of semi-autonomous functions really (I don't even like active cruise control - I prefer to just set a speed and cancel it myself), but a few trips in Mercedes with automated steering, accelerating and braking in highway driving suggest it could reduce fatigue.

It's similar to how regular cruise control is quite nice if you're just going to be driving for hours in a straight line on a mostly empty road. It frees up certain physical functions so the important stuff like looking where you're going becomes less tiring. You can afford to relax your limbs a bit, basically, and that does take some of the exertion out of long, boring trips.

The one situation I always kinda wish I was driving something semi-autonomous is when I'm doing my semi-frequent journeys back from airports after some event or other. It's usually in the evening, quite frequently at rush hour, and because this is the UK, it's often either dark, poor weather, or both. People around me are doing stupid things, some people are being dozy, others aggressive, the traffic constantly ebbs and flows, you're squinting through the raindrops and dazzle from headlights and taillights... having the car take at least some of the work out of that high-duty environment does leave you feeling much fresher at the end of the trip, and probably less liable to make a mistake during it.
 
Any system that can deceive a reasonable driver into believing that the car is capable of fully driving itself, yet by design needs constant human supervision is not a safe system in my opinion. Human reaction times aren't really stellar to begin with, and asking somebody who isn't really paying attention to suddenly take control just seems unrealistic. I don't think an average driver is capable of remaining engaged enough to properly supervise a level 2 or 3 automated vehicle....average drivers are barely engaged to supervise a vehicle they are fully in control of. That's why I think levels 2-4 are not really feasible.

I highly recommend this podcast: Children of Magenta. I have a feeling eventually levels 2-4 will be reserved for (as they are now in train systems) public transportation where somebody is being literally payed to supervise the machine, and only 5 will be truly 'consumer grade'. If they weren't so far behind the curve, I would have thought that the Mercedes S class would be the first car to be fully autonomous....with a properly S class starting price. Now I think its more likely some California based startup will get their first....not sure which one. Of course, most Rolls Royces have been fully 'autonomous' for years.... :lol:


I quite like the 'augmentation' approach though, but that's more like level 1 I suppose.
 
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I quite like the 'augmentation' approach though, but that's more like level 1 I suppose.
In a way, though the way Roy pitches it, it sounds more like the car could do anything up to and including full autonomy should the driver not be in suitable control. At the moment, ABS, stability control, traction control, lane departure warning etc are either pre-emptive systems or just reacting to driver input. I know a lot of cars now have a function that will apply the brakes after an accident to prevent it rebounding back into traffic, but the system described in the article would stop it hitting the armco or whatever in the first place, even if the driver was nominally "in control".
 
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Tell me how much you would pay to have a vehicle that can perform at the level of each of the autonomous levels for your own personal use (brand new vehicle)? How did you arrive at that number? I'm not really understanding the demand, desire, or use of levels 2 and 3 of autonomous driving.
Which are the "some driving assist features" mentioned in 1?

How much would I pay to have? I don't get the question. How much do you want to pay ....? This I can answer.

0 = The full amount a car is worth.
1 = as long as I don't know which the driving assist features are, I can't say. But if it is breaking assist, steering assist, ABS, traction control; stuff that we are customed with on daily cars, I would still the full amount a car is worth. If these cars have more assist features = €0
2 = €0
3 = €0
4 = €0
5 = €0

Autonomous cars are not adapted to the current transport infrastructure and vice versa. So it is my opinion that autonomous cars are a danger combined with other non autonomous cars, traffic rules etc.
 
I generally think of things like adaptive cruise control and lane-keeping assists.
Ok, in that case:

0 = The full amount a car is worth.
1 = The full amount a car is worth. But if these are options, I'd not choose these options fur sure. If these features are not optional, I'd still pay the full amount a car is worth.
 
How much would I pay to have? I don't get the question.

Pretend that the autonomous/assisted driving module is an "option". How much would you pay to have that option added to your new car? For example, if we're looking at automation level 1, how much would you pay for an ABS and Cruise control option? And I'm not talking about a niche car that only gets used at the track or whatnot, this is for something you'd drive regularly on public streets.

I do like ABS and cruise control, actually quite a lot. So Automation Level 1 is worth at least $3000 to me, maybe more on the price of my new car. If I were looking at buying a new Toyota Camry, for example, I might tack on $3000 to get ABS and Cruise Control compared to a stripped base model. If you're having trouble picturing this, imagine that the Toyota Camry prices are all exactly as they are today, but there is one new option that just deletes ABS and Cruise Control and costs $3000 less. Which would you buy? Similarly, assume that you're going to buy a Camry and there is one that costs $3000 more than the ones on the market today, but only the more expensive one has those features. Which would you buy?

That's the exercise I want you to go through to figure out Autonomy levels 2 and 3.
 
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Easy, I don't want any assisted driving option except ABS, power steering and traction/stability control. Oh, I also want parking sensors in my bumpers because I tend to destroy my bumpers when parking. :grumpy:

Every other driving assists are a waste of my precious money IMHO.
 
If that's the answer to what level 1 is, then I wouldn't buy a new car at all if it didn't have level 1, and I wouldn't pay anything extra to get anything above level 1.
 
If that's the answer to what level 1 is, then I wouldn't buy a new car at all if it didn't have level 1, and I wouldn't pay anything extra to get anything above level 1.

Yea I am the same way pretty much but just for fun since I'm looking to get a brand new car the beginning of next year.

1- $5000
If number 1 is is what Kikie said then Number 1 is a big deal for me. When I went out of town I rented out a Ifiniti Q50. It had alot of features that really helped me out that I liked alot. So i am willing to pay the money for them.

I'm assuming level 2 and above includes level 1 and etc.
2 - $5000
3 - $5000
4 - $6000
5 - $6000

Level 2-5 I really wouldnt care too much about but if its only 1000 dollar more I would get level 4 or 5.
Hopefully I did this right loll.
 
So for levels 4 and 5, I'm thinking maybe $100k+. It basically gives you a chauffeur. It can take your kids to school, it could get your groceries (with those pick up at the curb type services where they bring your groceries out to the car), it could be a rental car for others and generate income, and it could free you up on your commute. It replaces airline tickets by letting you sleep in the car overnight while it drives you to your destination (assuming there's a semi-flat, safe place to sleep).

The difference between level 4 chauffeur and level 5 chauffeur is that level 4 can't do all conditions. That could be either hugely restrictive or not very. So some level 4 automation would be worth a LOT less than others. For example, if it can only drive 30 mph max in dry sunny conditions, that's not worth as much as a level 4 that can do everything except snow covered roads or super heavy fog - which would be worth almost as much as a level 5.

So yea, $100k or more really. Especially if it's offsetting airfare, adding time back during your commute, and generating its own money while you're working.

Levels 2 and 3 are tough though. @homeforsummer has so far done the best job of explaining how that could be useful. For me personally, that's worth almost nothing. For someone who does a long trip every single day I could see it being worth more.

Edit:

If something like the Driver Envelope Protection system advocated by @homeforsummer's article existed, then I could see it being worth some real scratch.
 
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Level 2 is just a gimmick that really just allows stupid people to have accidents easier. Level 3 is better, but it still makes me pay attention to some degree and not really worth it. I really don't think autonomous vehicles are worth it until we get into the Level 4 and 5 realm. Once it hits that threshold, I'd consider buying it as an option if it were available for the vehicle I was looking at. Not having to pay any attention while the car whisks me where ever sounds fantastic. But only as long as I can switch the system off to drive if I want to.
 
Level 1 is generally for a car that comes with AEB as standard across its range rather than any actual ability to drive itself. It should be pointed out at this stage that Level 2 is the highest level for a production car currently (yes, even Tesla AutoPilot). Audi's Traffic Jam Pilot is currently the only system close to a production stage Level 3 autonomy.

There is a Renault system that is at level 4 autonomy (as seen in the CarThrottle video here) and Google is aiming for level 5 with Waymo.
 
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