Is GT getting easier? - A small empirical analysis

[zocker_16]

Finally i had some time to translate my small empirical analysis about the level of difficulty in the Gran Turismo Series. I already postet a small part of it in a thread about the hardest license test here.

My original post was on an german GT-Board: http://community.eu.playstation.com...-Eine-kleine-empirische-Analyse/td-p/21385443


I study macro economics in Germany and so i have to work with statistics and empirical methods.

During some spare time i made a small empirical analysis about the level of difficulty in the Gran Turismo Series. Therefor i used the fastest license times of GT3,GT4,GT5 and GT6 from the GTRP-Race-Database ( http://db.gtrp.de )

To define whats "difficult" i took the gap between gold time and fastest time in the database into relation with the target gold time.

So if gold is 1:40 min = 100 sec. and the best time in the database is 1:38 min = 98 sec. the gap is -2%.

This means you can lose 1,2 seconds to the fastest one in the leaderboard every minute and still earn gold.

A number close to 0 means the license is very difficult because even the best players beat the target gold time only a bit. A large number means it´s possible to be much faster than gold, the event is quite easy. For example Gold = 50 sec. and the fastest player achieved 45 sec. the gap would be 10%.


PS: I know there are other facts that make an event difficult i just took this definition because it´s the only measurable one. But if there´s somebody who can be much faster maybe the problem is not the event, it could be you

Also most of the tests are nearly similar in every new game (brake test, single cornering etc.)

Results:

1st Chart:
The following chart shows all license test of GT3-GT6 and their "gap of difficulty"

- According to this the hardest license in GT-History since GT3 would be the A7 in GT3 with a gap of -0,87% or 0,522 sec. on 1 minute
- GT3 in fact was the hardest GT-Title with the definition of difficulty from above, also the game is getting easier with every new part.

2nd Chart:
The same chart from above but sortet by level of difficult starting with the hardest one of every game:

- you see that there are 40 license test in GT4 which are harder than the hardest in GT6.
- the easiest GT3 test ist still harder than 11 tests in GT6
- also the easiest one in GT6 is the easiest test of the whole series.


3rd Chart: Some statistical key datas:

25% Quartille: The value where 25% of the tests are harder.
So with GT4 and 80 test the 20th hardest one (with 40 tests the 10th)

- GT4 and GT5 are close, GT6 is much easier.

Median: Also called 50% Quartille, the test where 39,5 tests in GT4 are easier and 39,5 are harder
- half of the GT4 tests are harder than 4% gap
- so you can lose about 2,44 seconds on every minute you drive and still earn gold
- on GT3 this is 1% less, so the tests are about 0,5-0,6 sec a lap harder
- the hardest GT6 test is 6,9% = 4,14 sec. per minute
- GT 5 is the hardest on this key data

75% Quartille: The value where 75% of the tests are harder (so place 60 of 80 tests)

maximum and minimum gap: Think i don´t need to explain

Average: All %-gaps accumulated and divided through number of tests

Evaluation:
- 75% of GT4 tests are harder than the hardest 25% of GT6
- the average GT4 and GT5 is close

NOTE: There are not as many GT5 times in the database as GT4 times. Also the competition was harder on GT4 so it´s possible the GT5 times are not the limit and the data says it´s harder than it actually is.
If someone beats the top time of the leaderboard the gap gets bigger and the test easier after my definition.
So GT4 in fact is more difficult than GT5 even if the data says it´s close.

4th Chart:

The average gap to gold normed to 1 min:
So gold = 60 sec. ; best time = 58 sec. = 2 sec. / minute
Gold = 420 ; best time = 406 sec. = 2 sec. / minute

Blue bar shows the tests longer than 1 minute.
Red bar all tests.

Note: This chart is to show, if theres an extra time bonus for long tests. Because it´s harder to do a good lap than only nail one corner. So longer tests should be easier / have a larger gap than short ones.

- in GT3 theres such a
- in GT6 it´s the opposite, the short tests are easier than the long ones
- GT5 doesn´t have any license tests longer than 1 minute

The numbers and charts show that GT gets easier with every new part.
The license tests of GT3 are the hardest of the whole series. Sadly there are no datas of GT1 or GT2 maybe those are even harder. Also because many people think those have the hardest licenses of all GT games.

I hope all i wrote is understandable also for people without any statistical background.
Also sorry for the simple language, grammar and all mistakes

I´m happy about your feedback

PS: Even more numbers:

 

[NICKname]

GT6 itself is getting harder with each update. If you wanna compare games compare them when they had all updates or none. GT5 and GT6 had physics updates throughout their existence, the times are just from whenever people decided to do the challenges. If someone posts a time for a license test, then an update which makes the game harder comes, and someone posts a slower time the second person is not a worse driver.

 

[sosa]

And don't forget the hardware. DS1 s DS2 vs G27.

 

[l_alcala_d]

From what I can recall... yep the GT1-GT2 test where harderd... But once you got the trick to beat them, it only take will take a "few" hours to make gold every one of them... damn... I miss GT2 rare cars... VENTURI

 

[HKS racer]

GT6 itself is getting harder with each update. If you wanna compare games compare them when they had all updates or none. GT5 and GT6 had physics updates throughout their existence, the times are just from whenever people decided to do the challenges. If someone posts a time for a license test, then an update which makes the game harder comes, and someone posts a slower time the second person is not a worse driver.

Your post is proven wrong by those geeky OP charts. GT6 is noob friendly even after updates, the only thing I saw is even worse AI which doesn't make them more fast only more stupid.

 

[noseknows36]

And don't forget the hardware. DS1 s DS2 vs G27.

This is very true. The controllers being used for each game have improved across each console generation. Although I do remember the older games being more difficult, I really believe that the introduction of quality FFB wheels has had a major impact on the games. There a lot of variables to take into consideration with these comparisons. I really like the idea of having an empirical comparison between the games though. Interesting to see the results

 

[niky]

Interesting thread! Though I think the increase in wheel use has played a part, I doubt the proportion of wheel users to pad users changes all that much through time.

Also, to note... the difficulty of license tests can only be taken as the difficulty of license tests, not the difficulty of the game overall or the handling/control model of the game.

I doubt you'll find many who'd contend GT5 overall was easier than GT3, considering there are some events/trials in GT5 that are nearly impossible with the pad (and nearly only because there are some fools who actually stuck with it and did them).

GT3's physics/driving model was much more forgiving... and possibly the most fun in the series due to the lurid drifts and "loose" handling model.

GT3 was a game you could play on the pad with the throttle and brake mapped to the buttons. You can't do that with GT5 or GT6, realistically. You need to either use the right analog or the longer-throw trigger buttons for easy functionality.

You can't just throw a car sideways and do "mad tite drifts yo" in GT6.

You can't do 1,000 km/h wheelies.

Whatever faults the game has in terms of events, GT6's driving model is not easier to use than GT3's. Also, we've had this argument before, on whether difficulty is equatable to realism. It just isn't.

Like I said, this is an interesting statistic, but only applicable to license tests.

Still... interesting statistic.

 

[HBR-Roadhog]

Interesting but the part where it says there were 40 in GT4 that were harder than any in GT6 is just not true.

I found that most of the test in GT4 were not really that hard and this being an inexperienced GT player using a controller. In GT6 I came in as a very experienced driver with a nice custom rig. Some of the tests still required me to run them several times to get gold and some required a few tries to even get bronze.

I did go back to GT4 with a wheel just before GT5 released and I golded most of the tests on the first try.

 

[TexasTyme214]

This is a beautifully done analysis. IT's interesting to see that technology and physics difficulty moving up, yet difficulty is coming down. Can we relate our rising skill level to the feeling of difficulty in each game, or were all these licenses tested recently, showing that the same skill level is used across the board?

 

[NixxxoN]

Yes, GT6 is the easiest GT ever, anyone who has played all six games would tell you clearly, no need for complicated studies and analysis.

But its not the driving physics that are easy, but the licenses, races and all the stuff you have to do in order to get 100% of the game done...

Oh well, thank god we have the online mode.

 

[Johnnypenso]

@zocker_16 well done sir:tup:👍 That's quite a bit of work and finally proves statistically, with the variables you can account for, that GT6 is much easier than it's predecessors by quite a margin. Good work

 

[vasiliflame]

It's a game industry problem since we lost the arcades, most games are easy taking little skill to complete.. 90's onwards difficulty levels gradually ever year get nerfed

 

[jimipitbull]

It might be the same difficulty, but the series long players are getting faster. Need new player license test times for each game for this analysis to work.

 

[BDoggPrelude]

How many people here are taking into account how much practice they've had by the time the 6th iteration of the game rolls through? Maybe the game isn't getting easier, you're just getting better...

 

[carracerptp]

Cool study.

I still have GT6 and GT4, not even a contest. In GT4 getting gold requires some pace ( licences ). Not a lot but you can't be missing brake and turn-in points in every other corner. Now in GT6 just about anything will get you a gold if you keep all 4 wheels on the track in 90% of the tests. I did them back to back so my "skill" level was not a factor.

The only place GT6 comes a little bit close are some of the karting events or the the Senna events. But they are both not licence test so that wouldn't show up here.

Also keep in mind, in GT6 SRF is forced on in all the license test. Making it even easier still.

 

[niky]

It might be the same difficulty, but the series long players are getting faster. Need new player license test times for each game for this analysis to work.

Somehow, I missed the part where this is only the best reported times. I quite agree... It would be interesting to see where the median is in all of this.

Or better yet... a sampling of several players' times, those who have played all the series.

Yeah... as more and more fans come to the series, the population of "aliens" attacking the license tests gets higher. And they are armed with much better steering wheel systems than before.

-

And again... licenses aren't the whole game.

I wonder how this list would fare if you included the "insane" events... like the last two driving missions from GT4 and the Red Bull event from GT5 (again, borderline impossible with the pad). GT3 ain't had nothin' like that. In fact, the race events themselves were mostly a breeze if you had the right car. And even some of the F1 events were doable with the less competitive cars, if I recall. It just took practice and tuning.

 

[et_]

There are multiple factors at play here, and statistics are said to be the greatest of lies, but the fact of the matter is this:
He's right... He is absolutely right!

Looking at only licence tests, the game is getting way easier, there is not a doubt in my mind about that!
if you dont believe me, fire up GT3 or GT4 and try the licence tests and compare yourself!
I mean, getting all gold on the GT3/GT4 licenses was TOUGH!
In GT5 and GT6, its easily done in a few hours.

Now, the thing is that GT5 in particular has other events that are tougher than the license tests (do I need to mention Red Bull X challenges?) And in GT6 the Ayrton senna events on Brands was not that easy either, so those has to be taken into account
Make no mistake: The Red bull X challenges in GT5 was voted the hardest event in any GT game in history, so its wrong to say its easier than the others!

GT6 on the other hand... Yeah, that is a childs game pretty much. Difficulty-wise at least.

 

[Blitz24]

GT3 license tests were difficult. Then again I never really tried for completion all golds until GT4. I managed to get all 80 golds in a fairly quick fashion (after finding GTPlanet and actually wanting to race it again) using a DS2. Since then I have switched over to a DFGT and the wheel is a lot more responsive and allows for more control, making me even faster. I got all golds before the patch in GT5 and only had issues with the last two in GT6.

 

[HBR-Roadhog]

Looking at only licence tests, the game is getting way easier, there is not a doubt in my mind about that!
if you dont believe me, fire up GT3 or GT4 and try the licence tests and compare yourself!
I mean, getting all gold on the GT3/GT4 licenses was TOUGH!
In GT5 and GT6, its easily done in a few hours.

Well there were twice as many of them in GT4 than in GT6 so naturally they took longer. Also factor in how much you have played since GT4 and they should be easier now if they are the same difficulty due to practice alone.

Some of them seemed exactly the same to me on 6 as they were in 4.

I remember having trouble with 2 in GT4 one was in the Alpha Spider and I was trying to do it in chase view with a game pad which was not working so well, lots of tries on that one, finally switched to roof cam and nailed it on the first try, could easily do so now with my wheel. The other one that gave me trouble in GT4 was one of the rally tests basically hard because I had never tried rally driving before now that test is also easy.

It definitely took me a lot more time to do the tests in GT4 but there were twice as many and at the time I was happy getting under 10 minutes on Nurburgring in anything, It took a while to get down to 7 minutes in that last test but is a piece of cake now.

 

[varmintx]

While I do appreciate all that work you put in, I thought it was kind of obvious. GT6 is the first one in the entire series I was able to gold everything, and I can assure you, it's not because my skill has improved. I actually think I've gotten much worse since 4 due to just being physically unable to play the game as much as I once could.

 

[zocker_16]

And don't forget the hardware. DS1 s DS2 vs G27.

How many people here are taking into account how much practice they've had by the time the 6th iteration of the game rolls through? Maybe the game isn't getting easier, you're just getting better...

Hi, thats the point why i have chosen my definition of difficulty and the database to measure it.
Theres always something like a "perfect lap" every racing driver tries to achieve this. In fact a perfect lap is impossible so it´s about how close you can come to it. The best drivers are so close on many tests that the gap between the "perfect lap" and the best time on the leaderboard is nearly the same. Sometimes it´s only several 1/1000 of a second up to a few tenths on longer tests. The best players can only improve their best times by a few 1/1000 no matter how many laps they do. So if the best time on the leaderboard is a 1.02,120 after 10 hours it´s maybe a 1.02,060 after 1000 hours of training with a potential perfect lap of 1.02,010.
The time got improved about 0,01% which is insignificant.

There where players in every part of GT which got close to the perfect lap. So they showed whats possible with the game and the best equipment that time. ( You will find well known players like Ramon and Holl01 in the old Databases of GT3 and GT4)
So after my definition the game gets easier if the best players can achieve a bigger gap between their time and the gold time.
To see if the game gets easier for an average/median player is impossible with this method.
Thats because you can´t define an average player properly. On that stage you become better with every lap of training. So if you start at zero of course the game will be easier for you with every new part because the effect of learning.
Also theres no exactly point zero time which is the same for every new player.

By choosing the best players these effects get switched of, the "perfect lap" always keeps the same no matter how much training you have or which input device you use.

 

[niky]

The question is, however, how the gold times are chosen?

It's obvious that the GT series has had a lot of lapses in terms of playtesting over the years. The "gold" standard sometimes seems to depend on how close to final the game engine build was when the "gold" time was set (and then you get the odd series where the PP limit is broken or the competition is faster due to a glitch in the event settings, etcetera).

I haven't seen any differences in License difficulty from GT3 to GT5. Nothing majorly different. In fact, for pad players, GT5 was a bit of a step back because of issues with the mapping and calibration of the controller early on. Again... GT3, your "gold standard" for license tests, was the easiest GT on the pad, by far (having played from GT1 to GT5).

 

[jimipitbull]

I think GTpsp is harder than all of them

 

[Dark Motor]

I feel the largest influence is online play which is an expensive investment.
The easier an online game is, the more people interested in playing it online.
More people playing online equates to bigger return on investment for PSN.
Most decisions are now almost exclusively determined in favor of online play.
The introduction of online play radically alters the direction of Gran Turismo.

 

[Johnnypenso]

I feel the largest influence is online play which is an expensive investment.
The easier an online game is, the more people interested in playing it online.
More people playing online equates to bigger return on investment for PSN.
Most decisions are now almost exclusively determined in favor of online play.
The introduction of online play radically alters the direction of Gran Turismo.

Except the numbers don't corroborate this hypotheses in terms of "more people playing online". In terms of total players online the numbers for GT6 appear relatively low. Rarely more than 1000 I'd guess most times of the day or night in open lobbies. Private "friends only" lobbies I'd guess not many since I rarely see anyone on my list in a "friends only" lobby but it's speculation of course. Weekends bring higher numbers but probably not more than 2000. That's not a lot considering 2+million people have bought this game.

The game is still mostly a play alone type of game, be it racing offline, arcade mode, hot lapping or just driving cars or doing TT's and Seasonals. Actual online, player to player racing isn't very busy IMO.

 

[BMWcrazy]

To be honest, as a mediocre driver I don't mind it being easier.

At least GT6 has given me some confidence and motivation to improve myself instead of pure frustration.

 

[ironman44321]

I started with GT4 so I coudn't tell you how easy the first 3 games were but I doubt 4 was harder than 6. I think a more accurate way of measuring game difficulty would be to have a group of drivers run the same car on the same track in different GT games and then compare both laptimes and the impressions of the drivers on how difficult the game was.

I think the idea that the older GTs were harder has more to do with nostalgia glasses than the actual reality.

 

[finnracer]

Blame the players, casual gamers make up the vast majority of gamers and many seem to have become increasingly impatient, wanting everything at once. If GT6 was as hard as GT4 or even GT3 many of those would probably be put off the game, while some will resort to proclaiming it is 'broken' or 'impossible' just because it takes more than 2 attempts to get past a certain point. The older GT's were quite good all rounders for difficulty and the bronze times have always been fairly achievable even for less accomplished drivers.

 

[mistersafeway]

I started with GT4 so I coudn't tell you how easy the first 3 games were but I doubt 4 was harder than 6. I think a more accurate way of measuring game difficulty would be to have a group of drivers run the same car on the same track in different GT games and then compare both laptimes and the impressions of the drivers on how difficult the game was.

I think the idea that the older GTs were harder has more to do with nostalgia glasses than the actual reality.

In GT6 I've done the first three licences with all tests at least 0.4 under gold target on the first try. Last year I tried the GT4 licence tests and couldn't get past the middle of A without getting bored of the level of effort necessary. 6 is also easier than 5 (which was, in turn, easier than 4 for me), in which I completed the tests with a DS3, and I am not good with a hand controller. Yes, you can argue that I'm a better driver, but I didn't really improve in the six months or so between playing GT4 and GT6's release, in fact I was probably slower due to my DFGT getting more broken.

 

[Johnnypenso]

I started with GT4 so I coudn't tell you how easy the first 3 games were but I doubt 4 was harder than 6. I think a more accurate way of measuring game difficulty would be to have a group of drivers run the same car on the same track in different GT games and then compare both laptimes and the impressions of the drivers on how difficult the game was.

I think the idea that the older GTs were harder has more to do with nostalgia glasses than the actual reality.

Your best response to empirical testing is that you don't agree because nostalgia? This has nothing to do with laptimes, it's measuring the difficulty of license tests.