Car Ticket Probability Distributions

Exorcet · Aug 5, 2011

Yesterday, I decided to start going through my collection of tickets to finish off my garage. I started with the Level 22 ticket, aiming for the Viper GTS-R #91. It's one of only six cars that you can get from the ticket so chances were good that I would get it fast.

Level 22 (6 cars)
Chevrolet Corvette C5-R (C5) '00
Dodge Viper GTS-R Team Oreca Race Car #91 '00
Ford Ford GT LM Race Car Spec II
Gran Turismo Ford GT LM Spec II Test Car
Nissan Fairlady Z Concept LM Race Car
Pagani Zonda LM Race Car

https://www.gtplanet.net/forum/showthread.php?t=199650

In fact, if every car has an equal probability of being awarded, that expected number of game reloads would be 6

P(car) = 1/number of cars in ticket = 1/6

Expectation of number of game reloads to get car = 1/P = 1/1/6 = 6

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution

The distribution of cars from my ticket should have been fairly even, and it should have taken me about 6 tries, give or take. The actual results were

4 - Chevrolet Corvette C5-R (C5) '00
1 - Dodge Viper GTS-R Team Oreca Race Car #91 '00
3 - Ford Ford GT LM Race Car Spec II
2 - Gran Turismo Ford GT LM Spec II Test Car
1 - Nissan Fairlady Z Concept LM Race Car
2 - Pagani Zonda LM Race Car

13 - Total

30% - Chevrolet Corvette C5-R (C5) '00
8% - Dodge Viper GTS-R Team Oreca Race Car #91 '00
23% - Ford Ford GT LM Race Car Spec II
15% - Gran Turismo Ford GT LM Spec II Test Car
8% - Nissan Fairlady Z Concept LM Race Car
15% - Pagani Zonda LM Race Car

That's a little ways off from 6, and the Fords and Chevy seemed to be favored very highly over the other cars, especially the Nissan and Viper. There is a catch though, 13 trials is not a lot, which leads me to the point of this thread.

I need a bigger sample size to find out if each car has the same probability of coming up in a ticket or not. So I'm asking for people to volunteer to write down what they get when they go through a ticket grinding session. It can be any ticket, except maybe the 1000 ticket. Just write out the ticket name, list of cars for that ticket, what car you were aiming for OR number of trials you did if you were not aiming for anything, and the distribution of cars you obtained from the ticket.

Thanks in advance to anyone who participates. I'll update this post every so often with the information.

TICKETS

1967

1 - Chaparral 2D Race Car '67
0 - Ferrari 330 P4 Race Car '67
1 - Ford Mark IV Race Car '67
1 - Honda N360 '67
0 - Lamborghini Miura P400 Bertone Prototype CN.0706 '67
0 - Mazda 110S (L10A) '67
0 - Mazda Cosmo Sport (L10A) '67
1 - Mercury Cougar XR-7 '67
0 - Nissan SKYLINE 2000GT-B (S54A) '67
2 - Toyota 2000GT '67

5 - Total

1 - Chaparral 2D Race Car '67
0% - Ferrari 330 P4 Race Car '67
20% - Ford Mark IV Race Car '67
20% - Honda N360 '67
0% - Lamborghini Miura P400 Bertone Prototype CN.0706 '67
0% - Mazda 110S (L10A) '67
0% - Mazda Cosmo Sport (L10A) '67
20% - Mercury Cougar XR-7 '67
0% - Nissan SKYLINE 2000GT-B (S54A) '67
40% - Toyota 2000GT '67

2009

2 - Audi R8 5.2 FSI quattro '09
1 - Audi R8 LMS Race Car '09
5 - Audi R8 LMS Race Car (Team PlayStation) '09
3 - Audi TTS Coupe '09
6 - Bugatti Veyron 16.4 '09
5 - Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 (C6) '09
6 - Ferrari 458 Italia '09
4 - Honda INSIGHT LS '09
6 - Lamborghini Murciélago LP 640 '09
2 - Lamborghini Murciélago LP 670-4 SuperVeloce '09
7 - Lotus Evora '09
3 - Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren (19inch Wheel Option) '09
6 - Mitsubishi i-MiEV '09
3 - Nissan GT-R SpecV '09
5 - Nissan GT-R SpecV (GT Academy Version) '09
5 - Pagani Zonda R '09
3 - Toyota FT-86 Concept '09
4 - Toyota PRIUS G '09
6 - Volvo C30 R-Design '09

82 - Total

2% - Audi R8 5.2 FSI quattro '09
1% - Audi R8 LMS Race Car '09
6% - Audi R8 LMS Race Car (Team PlayStation) '09
4% - Audi TTS Coupe '09
7% - Bugatti Veyron 16.4 '09
6% - Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 (C6) '09
7% - Ferrari 458 Italia '09
5% - Honda INSIGHT LS '09
7% - Lamborghini Murciélago LP 640 '09
2% - Lamborghini Murciélago LP 670-4 SuperVeloce '09
9% - Lotus Evora '09
4% - Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren (19inch Wheel Option) '09
7% - Mitsubishi i-MiEV '09
4% - Nissan GT-R SpecV '09
6% - Nissan GT-R SpecV (GT Academy Version) '09
6% - Pagani Zonda R '09
4% - Toyota FT-86 Concept '09
5% - Toyota PRIUS G '09
7% - Volvo C30 R-Design '09

Level 22

4 - Chevrolet Corvette C5-R (C5) '00
1 - Dodge Viper GTS-R Team Oreca Race Car #91 '00
3 - Ford Ford GT LM Race Car Spec II
2 - Gran Turismo Ford GT LM Spec II Test Car
1 - Nissan Fairlady Z Concept LM Race Car
2 - Pagani Zonda LM Race Car

13 - Total

30% - Chevrolet Corvette C5-R (C5) '00
8% - Dodge Viper GTS-R Team Oreca Race Car #91 '00
23% - Ford Ford GT LM Race Car Spec II
15% - Gran Turismo Ford GT LM Spec II Test Car
8% - Nissan Fairlady Z Concept LM Race Car
15% - Pagani Zonda LM Race Car

Level 23

0 -Audi R10 TDI Race Car '06
1 - Audi R8 Race Car '01
0 - Audi R8 Race Car (Audi PlayStation Team ORECA) '05
0 - BMW McLaren F1 GTR Race Car '97
0 - BMW V12 LMR Race Car '99
0 - Bentley Speed 8 Race Car '03
1 - Chaparral 2J Race Car '70
0 - Citroën GT by Citroën Concept '08
0 - Gillet Vertigo Race Car '04
0 - Jaguar XJR-9 LM Race Car '88
0 - Mazda 787B Race car '91
0 - Mazda Furai Concept '08
0 - Mercedes-Benz CLK-LM Race Car '98
0 - Mercedes-Benz Sauber Mercedes C9 Race Car '89
0 - Nissan GT-R Concept LM Race Car
1 - Nissan R390 GT1 Race Car '98
0 - Nissan R89C Race Car '89
0 - Nissan R92CP Race Car '92
0 - Pagani Zonda R '09
0 - Panoz Esperante GTR-1 Race Car '98
0 - Pescarolo Sport Courage C60 - Peugeot Race Car '03
0 - Pescarolo Sport Pescarolo C60 Hybride - Judd Race car '05
1 - Pescarolo Sport Pescarolo Courage - Judd GV5 Race Car '04
0 - Peugeot 905 Race Car '92
0 - Peugeot 908 HDi FAP - Team Oreca Matmut '10
1 - Peugeot 908 HDi FAP - Team Peugeot Total '10
1 - Suzuki ESCUDO Dirt Trial Car '98
0 - Toyota GT-ONE Race Car (TS020) '99
0 - Toyota MINOLTA Toyota 88C-V Race Car '89
0 - Toyota Toyota 7 Race Car '70

6 - Total

0% - Audi R10 TDI Race Car '06
16% - Audi R8 Race Car '01
0% - Audi R8 Race Car (Audi PlayStation Team ORECA) '05
0% - BMW McLaren F1 GTR Race Car '97
0% - BMW V12 LMR Race Car '99
0% - Bentley Speed 8 Race Car '03
16% - Chaparral 2J Race Car '70
0% - Citroën GT by Citroën Concept '08
0% - Gillet Vertigo Race Car '04
0% - Jaguar XJR-9 LM Race Car '88
0% - Mazda 787B Race car '91
0% - Mazda Furai Concept '08
0% - Mercedes-Benz CLK-LM Race Car '98
0% - Mercedes-Benz Sauber Mercedes C9 Race Car '89
0% - Nissan GT-R Concept LM Race Car
16% - Nissan R390 GT1 Race Car '98
0% - Nissan R89C Race Car '89
0% - Nissan R92CP Race Car '92
0% - Pagani Zonda R '09
0% - Panoz Esperante GTR-1 Race Car '98
0% - Pescarolo Sport Courage C60 - Peugeot Race Car '03
0% - Pescarolo Sport Pescarolo C60 Hybride - Judd Race car '05
16 % - Pescarolo Sport Pescarolo Courage - Judd GV5 Race Car '04
0% - Peugeot 905 Race Car '92
0% - Peugeot 908 HDi FAP - Team Oreca Matmut '10
16% - Peugeot 908 HDi FAP - Team Peugeot Total '10
16% - Suzuki ESCUDO Dirt Trial Car '98
0% - Toyota GT-ONE Race Car (TS020) '99
0% - Toyota MINOLTA Toyota 88C-V Race Car '89
0% - Toyota Toyota 7 Race Car '70

Level 24

1 - Ferrari F10 '10
4 - Ferrari F2007
5 - Gran Turismo Formula Gran Turismo
10 - Total

10% - Ferrari F10 '10
40% - Ferrari F2007
50% - Gran Turismo Formula Gran Turismo

NOTES - ~~L24 ticket has so far only given me one type of car per day.~~

duke101 · Aug 5, 2011

If you want like exact percentages, you should probably do more trials and not just stop when you have received one of each car from the ticket. I assume that's what you did for the lvl 22 ticket there. I'm not saying the percentages would change dramatically, but they would be more precise if say you did 50 or 100 trials. And unless you're really dedicated to this experiment here, I'd understand if you didn't wanna do that many trials for the smaller tickets 👍

Great experiment either way, I was also wondering about this too!

Exorcet · Aug 5, 2011

duke101
If you want like exact percentages, you should probably do more trials and not just stop when you have received one of each car from the ticket.

That's why I want other people's input. I will add there distributions to my own to get the real distribution.

So if someone grinds a ticket 5 times, and someone else 3 times, I'll put them together and effectively it would be the same as if one person had done 8 trials. Of course, this assumes things like no differences in ticket probability based on region, PS3 type, whatever, but I'm just going to go with that unless it becomes obvious that it's not the case.

elric718 · Aug 5, 2011

I have heard and maybe noticed, that it seems you are more likely to get a car you don't have from a ticket.

See if someone has half the possible cars from a ticket and if it is more likely if the missing cars come up.

599GT · Aug 5, 2011

People don't get that tickets are random.
There isn't a ratio, percentage, cycle or any other scheme.
A ticket, level 21 for example, will give you a random level 21 car.
That means that, if I'm opening level 21 ticket and I'm looking for Amuse S2000 GT1 Turbo - there is a 1/26 possibility that I will get it on THAT try, it doesn't mean I'll get it for sure after 26 tries.
There is a 96.15% of me NOT getting it on every try.

Luck is the name of the game.

duke101 · Aug 5, 2011

The lottery is completely random too, but there are still winning percentages

599GT · Aug 5, 2011

duke101
The lottery is completely random too, but there are still winning percentages

As I've said, 3.85% chance of getting a desired car multiplied by the number of save reloads equals that you get a car you desired.

[n]% x [n]save reload = car you want
time needed for it < time needed for getting the car via legit means = win

In simple terms, if you sent 1000000 lottery tickets you'd have a bigger chance of winning and yet, with it beeing random - you might not win.

Carbon_77 · Aug 5, 2011

How did you get a level 22 ticket?

thesrdic · Aug 5, 2011

I wouldnt be too sure if its totally random, computers cant really do 'random' too well, even the random number function on most scientific calculators is programmed with an algorithm. But the chances of obtaining each car should level out, with more tries. With only 13 goes it wont be very even.
It should be 1/6 (.1666...) for each car, just as with the lottery the chances of each combination appearing are equal so a percentage can be worked by figuring how many combinations there are

Exorcet · Aug 5, 2011

599GT
People don't get that tickets are random.
There isn't a ratio, percentage

That's a contradiction. If it's random, then there is a percentage for each car. Right now, we think the cars are uniformly distributed. But we don't know for sure. This thread should tell us after enough time.

We also don't know whether the ticket separates cars based on model alone, or other factors like model and color (it could explain why the FGT was so common for me in the level 24 ticket; it has the most colors).

This thread is here to put an end to guessing so that everyone will actually know what's going on.

599GT
A ticket, level 21 for example, will give you a random level 21 car.
That means that, if I'm opening level 21 ticket and I'm looking for Amuse S2000 GT1 Turbo - there is a 1/26 possibility that I will get it on THAT try, it doesn't mean I'll get it for sure after 26 tries.

Obviously. You are not guaranteed to get the car after 26 tries, but 26 tries is the expected number of tries it takes to get the car. Expectation is a mathematical term. It is the same as the mean or first moment. I linked to Wiki for a reason.

Carbon_77
How did you get a level 22 ticket?

Expert Seasonal Event, Lotus

elric718
I have heard and maybe noticed, that it seems you are more likely to get a car you don't have from a ticket.

See if someone has half the possible cars from a ticket and if it is more likely if the missing cars come up.

My experience disagrees with this, greatly. Also, the last ticket I tried, the 67, gave me 5 cars I already had before giving me the one I was missing.

Corpsey · Aug 5, 2011

I got the Chaparral 2J on my first try from a 1970 ticket, albeit on the wrong account, but still if the probability is 1/12 (or more if it's by colour also as you say) I would have had to reload the save numerous times. I just didn't though, and I don't believe in "luck" so I don't really have an explanation for this. I'm with 599GT, it's just random..

thesrdic · Aug 5, 2011

I'd expect colour to be chosen after which model car, so the chances of each car appearing are still equal

Exorcet · Aug 5, 2011

Corpsey
I got the Chaparral 2J on my first try from a 1970 ticket, albeit on the wrong account, but still if the probability is 1/12 (or more if it's by colour also as you say) I would have had to reload the save numerous times.

No, a 1/12 chance means you can get it on the first try, it would just be rare.

Also, I don't mean to be condescending, but understand that random does not equal unpredictable. The tickets ARE random. I'm trying to find the distributions behind the randomness.

599GT · Aug 5, 2011

Corpsey
I got the Chaparral 2J on my first try from a 1970 ticket, albeit on the wrong account, but still if the probability is 1/12 (or more if it's by colour also as you say) I would have had to reload the save numerous times. I just didn't though, and I don't believe in "luck" so I don't really have an explanation for this. I'm with 599GT, it's just random..

I got my 2J on 14th try from '70 ticket...

And it isn't hard to emulate randomness on a computer.
Hard to explain online, but I'll try.

This is a ticket with 5 cars.
<- is the randomiser (the actual selector of the car you'll get)
<- Travels along the line of cars in X time period at X speed
X time and X speed use a certain algorhytm as they're never the same

Car <- \/ - speed/time algorhytm (it's an arrow, not a letter V)
Car <-
Car <-
Car <-
Car <-

Bold arrow is the actual selected car (the car you get)

Corpsey · Aug 5, 2011

599GT
In simple terms, if you sent 1000000 lottery tickets you'd have a bigger chance of winning and yet, with it beeing random - you might not win.

So the point of finding a distribution pattern when really you're going to reload the save anyways until you get a specific car is? To give someone the knowledge that it is possible by some chance?.. You might as well say it is always 50% because you wouldn't be lying.... they either turn their PS on use the ticket and they get it, or they turn their PS on use the ticket and they don't get it. I found a graph that represents this:

disagree with me or not, imo you're wasting your time and I say that only because I care.. you'd be better spending this time doing the seasonals.

Exorcet · Aug 6, 2011

Corpsey
So the point of finding a distribution pattern when really you're going to reload the save anyways until you get a specific car is?

Some cars can be acquired by multiple tickets, which ticket is more likely to provide the car? As far as we know now, it would be the one with less total cars, but that's only an assumption. And if it's found that some cars are very hard to get by any ticket at all, it would save people from bothering in the first place and instead they could get the car by other methods. Conversely if a car is discovered to be very common from a certain ticket, it saves the people the trouble of grinding to get the money for it.

you'd be better spending this time doing the seasonals.

No. Especially since 80% of the cars in game need to show up in the UCD before you can buy them.

599GT · Aug 6, 2011

Yes, in practice - you have 50% chance of getting a car you want on each reload.
You either get it or not, 50/50.
And by definition, a thing is random if it has ~50/50 chances of appearing in X time period.
For example, if you toss a coin for 10 minutes and get something like, 234 heads & 198 tails - it can then be called random.

Exorcet · Aug 6, 2011

599GT
Yes, in practice - you have 50% chance of getting a car you want on each reload.
You either get it or not, 50/50.

The chances of getting a specific car from a ticket is not 50/50. That's impossible (unless there are only 2 cars in a ticket). You either get it (1/#car in ticket) or not (1 - 1/#cars in ticket)

And by definition, a thing is random if it has ~50/50 chances of appearing in X time period.

That is a specific distribution, called a Bernoulli random distribution of p = q = .5

There are many other forms of probability distributions that do not behave that way. The tickets seem to follow a Geometric distribution.

599GT · Aug 6, 2011

599GT
Yes, in practice - you have 50% chance of getting a car you want on each reload.

Missed this.

Exorcet · Aug 6, 2011

599GT
Missed this.

It's never 50/50 unless there are two cars in the ticket.

If there are n cars in a ticket

P(get the car) = 1/n

P(of not getting the car) = 1 - 1/n

So for each reload

n = 1
100/0

n = 2
50/50

n = 3
33/66

n = 4
25/75

etc

You only have two options, you get the car or you don't. But most of the time, the chance of not getting the car dominates and is much more than 50%. Conversely, the chance of getting the desired car is less than 50%.

Think about it, if it was always 50/50, then there would be a chance of not getting the X1 from the X1 ticket. And you would also have the same chance of getting a car no matter how many cars are in the ticket. And the game would have to be reading your mind to figure out what car you wanted.

599GT · Aug 6, 2011

But in that try - you either do or you don't.
Now, if we take the time out of the equation we'll then have true 50/50.

Ouch, brainache.
...

Exorcet · Aug 6, 2011

599GT
But in that try - you either do or you don't.
Now, if we take the time out of the equation we'll then have true 50/50.

Time or not it doesn't matter. You're getting a few things confused.

You're looking at it like this:

Option 1 - Get the car
Option 2 - Don't get the car

That's fair. But where you go wrong is forgetting that Option 2 isn't really a single option. It's many options. There is only 1 way of getting the car, but there are multiple ways of not getting the car.

Example
Level Q ticket, it gives the following cars:

A1
B2
C3

If you start GT5 and open the ticket, one of three things can happen:

You get the A1
You get the B2
You get the C3

Let's break it down into getting the car and not getting the car. Say you want the B2.

Get the car

You get the B2

Don't get the car

You get the A1
You get the C3

There are two ways of not getting the car. If you add the total number of probabilities, it must add to 1. This is a law of probability. So if we take your word that each chance is 50/50:

Get the car

You get the B2 - 50%

Don't get the car

You get the A1 - 50%
You get the C3 - 50%

50 + 50 + 50 = 150% = Impossible!

Using probability, we take 1/n for each car. n = 3 clearly.

Get the car

You get the B2 - 33%

Don't get the car

You get the A1 - 33%
You get the C3 - 33%

33 + 33 + 33 = 100% = Checks out! (mind the rounding error)

Furthermore, to get the probability of not getting the car we must add all probabilities which lead to not getting the car.

33 + 33 = 66.

So it's a 33/66 chance each time, as I said before.

Corpsey · Aug 6, 2011

Exorcet
So it's a 33/66 chance each time, as I said before.

Interesting, however, simplify this please..

1/2 50%

I understand the true values you're trying to make but if you're determined to get 1 car, there's no chance you're not going to get the car unless your willpower diminishes during the process.. the true value is 100% of 50% of 33% etc........... even if it's 0.01%, if your willpower is strong enough you will obtain it 100% so long as you're using the right item(s).

599GT · Aug 6, 2011

Look,
Car A
Car B
Car C

If you're looking for Car B, that means Car A = Car C.
50%/Car B
50%/Car A (= Car C)

Easy does it.

Exorcet · Aug 7, 2011

599GT
Look,
Car A
Car B
Car C

If you're looking for Car B, that means Car A = Car C.
50%/Car B
50%/Car A (= Car C)

Easy does it.

That is not how the tickets work. The case you described above would be that the ticket either gave you the car you wanted, or every other car in the ticket.

Ie, from the level 24 ticket, you would either get the FGT or The F2007 and F10.

Car A =/=Car C. They are two separate events.

On the original topic, I'm going to try grinding more tickets sometime today. Though this probably won't get anywhere without other people's data.

Exorcet · Aug 9, 2011

Going through the 09 ticket now, and things do indeed look uniformly distributed.

I think I'm going to have to retry getting a Toyota GT-One from the L23, since that was probably the most difficult grinding session I've ever done.

Monatsende · Aug 9, 2011

I`d like to add fuel to your guessing fire.

Example to keep it simple:
Level24 ticket = 3 possiblities

3 possibilities? Really?
We all think that the ticket gives you one out of three possible cars? Right?

But what if the "level 24 ticket lottery pot" does not have 3 entries but 4.

That means: everybody thinks the pot contains "F2007", "F10" and "Formula GT". And you`ll get one of it. Then the probability to get one of these three is identical for every car.

But what if the pot contains "F2007", "F10", "Formula GT", "Formula GT"? Now the probability to get the Formula GT has doubled up...

Think about it.

Bien Cien · Aug 9, 2011

Riddle me this, what's six in two versus 13?

Not trying to beat a dead horse here but:

The idea is simple, statistics have no shape or form as a representation of GT5's ticket prize car winning percentage. All average winning percentages are based on individual study and even then you cannot use your own percentages as a way to calculate future ticket car winnings.

For example, on one particular day I received a Honda Z ACT '70 from a 1970 birthday ticket about 5-6 times out of 12 times. That does not mean I have a 42% chance of receiving a Honda Z ACT 5 hours later or tomorrow at most. I"m going to receive random results randomly in a random given time.

If I were to use a level 24 ticket to gain access to a formula one car, I do not have a 33% chance of obtaining a Ferrari F10.

I believe PD used the same principles in GT3 and GT4 on prize cars from championship/endurance wins.

Exorcet · Aug 9, 2011

Bien Cien
Riddle me this, what's six in two versus 13?

Not trying to beat a dead horse here but:

The idea is simple, statistics have no shape or form as a representation of GT5's ticket prize car winning percentage. All average winning percentages are based on individual study and even then you cannot use your own percentages as a way to calculate future ticket car winnings.

This isn't true. The tickets are random. Therefore statistics must apply.

There seems to be a very large misunderstanding around here that random = completely unpredictable. It's not. Probability and statistics are big subjects in math and science. If we couldn't know anything about random events, no one would bother studying them.

For example, on one particular day I received a Honda Z ACT '70 from a 1970 birthday ticket about 5-6 times out of 12 times. That does not mean I have a 42% chance of receiving a Honda Z ACT 5 hours later or tomorrow at most. I"m going to receive random results randomly in a random given time.

The only reason that you can't get a good prediction of your chances of getting a car from that is because you didn't take enough samples.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Now if you had cycled the ticket and infinite number of times, you would know exactly what your chances were of getting each car. But you would not know what car the ticket would give you on your next cycle. That is not a contradiction.

If I were to use a level 24 ticket to gain access to a formula one car, I do not have a 33% chance of obtaining a Ferrari F10.

If the cars all have uniform probability, yes you do. It would be clearly visible after a large number of trials.

If the idea that the tickets are uniform is correct, then the percentage for each car in every ticket will - this is fact approach 1/# of cars in tickets. So if a bunch of people decided to grind L24 tickets and post there results here, and the L24 ticket was uniform, the first page would get closer to:

33% - FGT
33% - F7
33% - F10

as the number of trials increased.

I am not trying to provide a means of predicting what car you will pull out of a ticket next. I am trying to confirm how the tickets work so that people know the best strategy for ticket grinding.

If tickets are uniform, as they seem to be for the most part, then you must simply compare all the tickets containing the desired car, then use the one with the least amount of total cars. On average, this will be the fastest ticket based path to your vehicle. Does this mean that using a level 24 ticket will always beat using a 1000 ticket when trying to get a FGT? No. The 1000 ticket may give you a FGT in 1 turn even if the probability is only 1/1000 while the L24 might require 1000 turns, even if the probability is 1/3. But you would be a complete fool to try the 1000 ticket because the probability of getting a success on the first try is only 1/1000, while the probability of success on the first try for the L24 is 1/3. And for reference, the probability that the L24 ticket takes 1000 attempts to get a FGT is practically 0 (something like 10^-200).

Monatsende
I`d like to add fuel to your guessing fire.

Example to keep it simple:
Level24 ticket = 3 possiblities

3 possibilities? Really?
We all think that the ticket gives you one out of three possible cars? Right?

But what if the "level 24 ticket lottery pot" does not have 3 entries but 4.

That means: everybody thinks the pot contains "F2007", "F10" and "Formula GT". And you`ll get one of it. Then the probability to get one of these three is identical for every car.

But what if the pot contains "F2007", "F10", "Formula GT", "Formula GT"? Now the probability to get the Formula GT has doubled up...

Think about it.

I've been considering this because of car colors. It's possible that each color of a car counts as it's own car, which would skew tickets to favoring cars with lots of colors. It looked like that was happening with the L24 ticket, but there weren't enough samples to be sure. Now it looks like the L24 is fairly uniform, but I still need more samples.

Bien Cien · Aug 9, 2011

Exorcet
This isn't true. The tickets are random. Therefore statistics must apply.

I am not trying to provide a means of predicting what car you will pull out of a ticket next. I am trying to confirm how the tickets work so that people know the best strategy for ticket grinding.

If tickets are uniform, as they seem to be for the most part, then you must simply compare all the tickets containing the desired car, then use the one with the least amount of total cars. On average, this will be the fastest ticket based path to your vehicle. Does this mean that using a level 24 ticket will always beat using a 1000 ticket when trying to get a FGT? No. The 1000 ticket may give you a FGT in 1 turn even if the probability is only 1/1000 while the L24 might require 1000 turns, even if the probability is 1/3. But you would be a complete fool to try the 1000 ticket because the probability of getting a success on the first try is only 1/1000, while the probability of success on the first try for the L24 is 1/3. And for reference, the probability that the L24 ticket takes 1000 attempts to get a FGT is practically 0 (something like 10^-200).

Yes I am wrong on some parts.

While I do support your theory and the validity towards statistics and pure math, it's important to know that duping in GT5 was never the intentions of PD to be included nor was "ticket grinding". Which means any end result is just based off personal data at a set given time but provides no validity towards what one might expect from ticket grinding.

Also, by using your same principles it would also require a larger number of tickets on that very same game save file when ticket grinding and not just deleting game save then loading. Not sure what the total number tickets you can carry but lets just say it's 99. That means certain tickets with total number of cars nearing 99 (2000,2003 and definitely 1000km) will be near impossible to actually determine what might be expected. If I am wrong it still doesn't help us one bit because now we have to carry on our account more than 99 tickets.

By the time someone attempted to accumulate 99 tickets of that exact value on one account, and if one did attempt to do this on their own, more than half a year has passed and we would be too busy playing some other game.

I'm pretty sure PD has some sort of valid formula deciding which car you will receive from which ticket but we don't know that information unless you happened to be a employee who worked on the GT5 development.

So how about we drown our worries of this with a couple of beers? :cheers: