Car Ticket Probability Distributions

[Exorcet]

So how about we drown our worries of this with a couple of beers?

Not a bad plan, but I'm a stubborn guy, and I'm especially jaded that the L23 ticket took so long to give me a GT-One. lol

Yes I am wrong on some parts.

While I do support your theory and the validity towards statistics and pure math, it's important to know that duping in GT5 was never the intentions of PD to be included nor was "ticket grinding". Which means any end result is just based off personal data at a set given time but provides no validity towards what one might expect from ticket grinding.

Also, by using your same principles it would also require a larger number of tickets on that very same game save file when ticket grinding and not just deleting game save then loading. Not sure what the total number tickets you can carry but lets just say it's 99. That means certain tickets with total number of cars nearing 99 (2000,2003 and definitely 1000km) will be near impossible to actually determine what might be expected. If I am wrong it still doesn't help us one bit because now we have to carry on our account more than 99 tickets.

By the time someone attempted to accumulate 99 tickets of that exact value on one account, and if one did attempt to do this on their own, more than half a year has passed and we would be too busy playing some other game.

I'm pretty sure PD has some sort of valid formula deciding which car you will receive from which ticket but we don't know that information unless you happened to be a employee who worked on the GT5 development.

This I don't get.

Yes, duping was not an intentional feature of GT5, but this does not make my methods incorrect.

There might be a formula for deciding tickets, but it might also just be random. Even if tickets are formula driven, I can still get probability distributions for the cars. Keep in mind the random in computers is often pseudo-random. The randomness is "simulated" by an algorithm. Yet even though it's not truly random, it behaves as if it were.

On the 99 ticket thing. I don't get that at all. That would speed up the process because of less reloading saves, but it wouldn't help accuracy. All you need is one ticket to get the distributions. Even if individual tickets could be biased one way or another, that would be filtered out by combing the ticket results of different people.



EDIT

The GT-One thing is happening again with the R8 LMS. I go through 4 hours of Nurburgring just to get a red car I can't paint, can't trade, and can't sell.

 

[Bien Cien]

Not a bad plan, but I'm a stubborn guy, and I'm especially jaded that the L23 ticket took so long to give me a GT-One. lol


The GT-One thing is happening again with the R8 LMS. I go through 4 hours of Nurburgring just to get a red car I can't paint, can't trade, and can't sell.

I didn't know the R8 LMS was offered in another color besides black. Good to know. Also about the level 23 ticket the easiest way to obtain a car is through good faith. I traded a 23 ticket to my alt so "it" can have a decent car to the a-spec events. I crossed my fingers for a Mazda 787B and that's the very same car that popped up. By the way, looooove that car. Rigorous to drive but the sound of that engine/exhaust brings a smile to my face.

I have a proposition:

Start a thread with a poll on to which car did they receive from which ticket. In fact, I feel confident to start one solely for the level 23 ticket. We can use those results, biased or invalid as they may be, to actually determine which car in a GTP consensus is mostly likely to obtained through that ticket.

We can also start multiple poll threads for each ticket. It can possibly help the GTP community as well as your research. Your thoughts?

 

[Exorcet]

Start a thread with a poll on to which car did they receive from which ticket. In fact, I feel confident to start one solely for the level 23 ticket. We can use those results, biased or invalid as they may be, to actually determine which car in a GTP consensus is mostly likely to obtained through that ticket.

That's another way of doing it, it would work. But I wonder if it would produce the same number of samples. I know that some people use a ticket only once and don't back it up. We'd need a lot of replies to get decent set of numbers. Though I guess my thread hasn't really attracted any help at all has it?

 

[sniper338]

I have been trying to finish my collection and have been using tickets to get a few of the missing ones.
My independent non scientific study shows that not only will you get a car you already have, but you will get it four out of seven times. Sometimes it feels like the car selection is rigged!