2026 FIFA World Cup Finals

[MagpieRacer]

So for Scotland to progress now, 4 of the following needs to happen:

Egypt beat Iran
Spain beat Uruguay
Senegal fail to win
Austria beat Algeria by 2+ goals
Uzbekistan win or draw
Ghana beat Croatia by 2+ goals

 

[Touring Mars]

Scotland don't deserve to qualify - if they can progress after playing like that, it makes a mockery of the 'achievement' of being the first Scotland team to make it out of the Group Stage.

 

[MagpieRacer]

Scotland don't deserve to qualify - if they can progress after playing like that, it makes a mockery of the 'achievement' of being the first Scotland team to make it out of the Group Stage.

I think it highlights more of an issue of the expanded 48 team tournament rather than Scotland's quality (of lack thereof).

I'm rooting for results to go their way, I'm not an anti-Scot England fan, I want all the home nations to do well.

 

[Touring Mars]

I think it highlights more of an issue of the expanded 48 team tournament rather than Scotland's quality (of lack thereof).

I'm rooting for results to go their way, I'm not an anti-Scot England fan, I want all the home nations to do well.

Absolutely, the format is rubbish - but although one cannot question the passion and commitment of the team, Scotland are nowhere near even the likes of Ecuador...

I'm officially supporting Japan from now on (barring a miracle for Scotland, that is...), but also want England to play/do well too.

 

[Blitz24]

If Scotland somehow makes it through, they will either be playing Germany in Boston on the 29th or Mexico in Mexico City on the 30th.

 

[Touring Mars]

Oh dear.

All of the Scotland bunting that was up around some neighbours' houses has vanished

I'm keeping my wee Scotland flags up until we are mathematically out, but it's only a matter of time now.

 

[MagpieRacer]

Senegal 5-0 up against Iraq which makes Scotland's already narrow odds almost non existent. Would take some remarkable results now.

 

[Famine]

Well they'll be dancing in the streets of Praia...

I did have them in second when I ran my third-place predictions too

Uruguay the first third-place team to be eliminated too, slightly assisting Scotland...

 

[Liquid]

I have to admit, this is the World Cup I have cared the least about, watched the least of and followed the least in general but I am absolutely delighted for Capo Verde. What an amazing story and performance; they get to go toe-to-toe with the defending champions in the knockouts.

 

[MUSC4EVER]

Cape Verde making it is brilliant, a population of around half a million progressing and now facing Argentina is probably the best story of this tournament so far. On the other hand though Uruguay not making it to the knockouts must be hugely devastating for them with the talent and history they have, there were reports that the players were falling out with Bielsa before last night's games.

Back to England tonight, they were confirmed to have qualified last night despite not playing, they play Panama in their last group game and will top the group with a win, as it stands they will face Senegal in the last 32.

 

[zaxs]

We have a match against Ghana to prove ourselves to whole nation and world that we didn't forget to play football...
Our coach "set to fire" his mistakes in last matches and promised better Croatia.

 

[Touring Mars]

Scotland have a 0.07% chance of qualifying for the next stage.

We need several things to happen:

• New manager
• New strategy
• New players
• Issue Scottish passports to all Brazilian children
• Sweeping reform of Scottish league football

Maybe expecting a bit much in the next 24 hours, but you never know.

 

[MUSC4EVER]

Apparently people are fed up with Steve Clarke's downbeat demeanor have started calling him 'Jurassic Clarke'.

 

[Famine]

Back to England tonight, they were confirmed to have qualified last night despite not playing

Yep, as a result of the Uruguay debacle and even before Iran drew with Egypt, anyone already on four points has already qualified as nobody already on four points can place any lower than third in their group (there's no possibilities for a 1-1-1 record for all teams in any group) and there's only three thirds to determine.

That means England, Ghana, & Portugal have qualified - though all three could end up third in their groups so I may have to recolour it all - while Paraguay have now also definitely qualified from the third-place playoff.

Scotland can now only qualify if all three of the following things happen:

• Ghana beat Croatia by three goals or more, then
• Uzbekistan beat DR Congo by three goals or fewer or Uzbekistan and DR Congo draw, then
• Austria beat Algeria by two goals or more or Algeria beat Austria by four goals or more

I think perhaps... not? But some stranger things have happened. I assume.

 

[Jimlaad43]

Watching the England-Panama game and I don't think I have ever seen a Referee stood in the way as much as in this game. A lot of times passes near the outside of the box seems to be blocked by the ref standing in the wrong place. Let's see if that continues in the second half.

 

[MagpieRacer]

Tough game for England but got the result. Now we will see what England can do, teams have to be more open in knockouts and this is where our style and how Tuchel likes to setup comes to the fore.

Scotland also officially out now.

 

[zaxs]

We did it, beat Ghana and got that nasty second position.
Now hard opponents in KO.

EDIT: I think Colombia would be easier opponent, so I'm cheering for Portugal in their match.

 

[Famine]

We need several things to happen:

• New manager

Scotland: Steve Clarke resigns after World Cup exit

Steve Clarke resigns as Scotland head coach following the nation's group exit from the World Cup.

www.bbc.com

Senegal now also through, and the first three-point third-place team to do so.

Currently there's six qualified teams from third-place, narrowing the possibilities from 495 to... less than 495.

BDEFIL are qualified, CH are out, leaving only AGJK possible and the following final eight:

ABDEFGIL
ABDEFJIL
ABDEFKIL
BDEFGIJL
BDEFGIKL
BDEFIJKL

However, if A qualifies, G will also qualify - South Korea and Iran respectively - due to their games already being played and their final ranking determined. J and/or K can only qualify at the expense of A, so we're down to just four:

ABDEFGIL
BDEFGIJL
BDEFGIKL
BDEFIJKL

And that means we already know four of the Second Round* matches involving third-place teams, and a fifth where their opponent is yet to be determined:

1A-3E: 🇲🇽 Mexico - 🇪🇨 Ecuador
1D-3B: 🇺🇸 United States - 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
1E-3D: 🇩🇪 Germany - 🇵🇾 Paraguay
1I-3F: 🇫🇷 France - 🇸🇪 Sweden
1K-3L: 🇨🇴 Colombia/🇵🇹 Portugal - 🇬🇭 Ghana

Of the unknowns:

1A-3J/3G: 🇨🇭 Switzerland - 🇩🇿 Algeria/🇦🇹 Austria or 🇮🇷 Iran
1G-3A/3I/3J: 🇧🇪 Belgium - 🇰🇷 South Korea or 🇸🇳 Senegal or 🇩🇿 Algeria/🇦🇹 Austria
1L-3I/3K: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England - 🇸🇳 Senegal or 🇨🇩 DR Congo/🇺🇿 Uzbekistan

At the moment, Uzbekistan are beating DR Congo, which will see neither qualify - to confirm England/Senegal.

*Still no.

 

[Famine]

At the moment, Uzbekistan are beating DR Congo, which will see neither qualify - to confirm England/Senegal.

DR Congo win 3-1 (courtesy of Newcastle's Yoane Wissa), setting them up for England - and eliminating South Korea...

We've now got Colombia through as group winner to play Ghana (so Portugal go to meet Croatia; potential Portugal/Spain in the Third Round*), Belgium again Senegal, two remaining possibilities - BDEFGIKL & BDEFIJKL - and only one third-place tie left unknown:

1A-3J/3G: 🇨🇭 Switzerland - 🇩🇿 Algeria/🇦🇹 Austria or 🇮🇷 Iran

The other unknown tie is whether Austria or Algeria finish second and face Argentina...

 

[zaxs]

DR Congo win 3-1 (courtesy of Newcastle's Yoane Wissa), setting them up for England - and eliminating South Korea...

We've now got Colombia through as group winner to play Ghana (so Portugal go to meet Croatia; potential Portugal/Spain in the Third Round*), Belgium again Senegal, two remaining possibilities - BDEFGIKL & BDEFIJKL - and only one third-place tie left unknown:

1A-3J/3G: 🇨🇭 Switzerland - 🇩🇿 Algeria/🇦🇹 Austria or 🇮🇷 Iran

The other unknown tie is whether Austria or Algeria finish second and face Argentina...

And no potential Croatia - Spain?
We have some debts to return from Euro to both of them...

 

[Famine]

And no potential Croatia - Spain?

All four combinations are potential matches in the Third Round; that's what "potential" means.

A potential Iberian derby is likely most relevant to Portugal, Spain, and a larger proportion of neutrals than any of the other three potential ties, hence the mention.


For the old people here, Algeria and Austria have a bit of history themselves, after Austria was accused of not trying to score against (West) Germany in a 1-0 game that saw Algeria eliminated from the 1982 World Cup on goal difference, behind Austria & (West) Germany.

Austria is in a bit of a pickle here: lose and they're out, draw or win and they play Spain. If third-place Algeria loses, they're out, while a draw sees them play Switzerland and a win puts them against Spain... Ironically then, 44 years on from the Disgrace of Gijon, Algeria may well want to draw for the easier tie...

 

[Blitz24]

2 goals in stoppage time (one in the 96th minute) forces a 3-3 tie for Austria and Algeria. Algeria will play Switzerland and Austria will play Spain. The knockout round of 32 has been set as Iran becomes the final team eliminated.

 

[Famine]

Iran becomes the final team eliminated

Weird that they've been treated like crap by the US, then have a last-minute goal that would have them qualifying ruled out by VAR, then have a last-minute goal that would have them qualifying rendered moot by an even laster-minute goal.

 

[Touring Mars]

Great first post @Famine - so much work and it looks great, and a very clear summary of the whole thing - best resource on the internet 😅

England v DR Congo - hopefully Tuchel doesn't require a Ph.D to figure out how to beat them. 5 pm kick-off too (UK time) is pretty handy, so that will be a big day (except for viewers in Scotland).

Brazil v Japan puts a bit of a dent in my plan to switch allegiance from Scotland to Japan, but I'm hoping for a shock win there.

-

It's crazy to see the difference between the two halves of the knock-out stage groupings in terms of rankings...

England haff:

• Argentina (1)
• England (4)
• Brazil (6)
• Colombia (13)
• Mexico (14)
• Japan (18)
• Switzerland (19)
• Ecuador (23)
• Australia (27)
• Algeria (28)
• Egypt (29)
• Norway (31)
• Côte d’Ivoire (33)
• DR Congo (46)
• Cape Verde (67)
• Ghana (73)

Other half:

• Spain (2)
• France (3)
• Portugal (5)
• Morocco (7)
• Netherlands (8)
• Belgium (9)
• Germany (10)
• Croatia (11)
• Senegal (15)
• USA (17)
• Austria (24)
• Canada (30)
• Sweden (38)
• Paraguay (41)
• South Africa (60)
• Bosnia and Herzegovina (64)

 

[Jimlaad43]

Analysing the eliminated countries from the Group Stage.

• Europe: Czechia, Scotland, Turkey
• Asia: South Korea, Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Uzbekistan
• North America: Haiti, Curaçao, Panama
• Africa: Tunisia
• Oceania: New Zealand
• South America: Uruguay

Asia having a majorly bad time here with all but Japan and Australia being knocked out. North America with a similar issue, as the three qualifiers were knocked out, meaning the hosts are the only ones left. Europe showed it's quality with 13/16 of it's teams going through to the Round of 32, while Africa showed it's quality as 9/10 of it's nations qualified through the groups.

 

[Famine]

League Table of Eliminated Teams:

Pos	Country	P	W	D	L	G+	G-	GD	Pt
1	🇮🇷 Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
2	🇰🇷 South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
3	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
4	🇺🇾 Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2
5	🇹🇷 Turkey	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3
6	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2
7	🇨🇿 Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1
8	🇳🇿 New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1
9	🇶🇦 Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1
10	🇨🇼 Curacao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1
11	🇵🇦 Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0
12	🇯🇴 Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0
13	🇭🇹 Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0
14	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0
15	🇹🇳 Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0
16	🇮🇶 Iraq	3	0	0	3	1	12	-11	0

You can swap Uruguay with Turkey if you like, but I generally do these to reflect elimination stages. Here 1-4 were eliminated having advanced to the third-place ranking, while 5-16 were eliminated by the group matches.

I might, if I can stay awake, do a rudimentary group difficulty coefficient, but since it won't change 11-16 I don't think I can be arsed.

 

[daan]

Analysing the eliminated countries from the Group Stage.

• Europe: Czechia, Turkey
• Asia: South Korea, Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Uzbekistan
• North America: Haiti, Curaçao, Panama
• Africa: Tunisia
• Oceania: New Zealand
• South America: Uruguay

Asia having a majorly bad time here with all but Japan and Australia being knocked out. North America with a similar issue, as the three qualifiers were knocked out, meaning the hosts are the only ones left. Europe showed it's quality with 14/16 of it's teams going through to the Round of 32, while Africa showed it's quality as 9/10 of it's nations qualified through the groups.

You missed Scotland out.

 

[Touring Mars]

League Table of Eliminated Teams:

Pos	Country	P	W	D	L	G+	G-	GD	Pt
1	🇮🇷 Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
2	🇰🇷 South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
3	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
4	🇺🇾 Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2
5	🇹🇷 Turkey	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3
6	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2
7	🇨🇿 Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1
8	🇳🇿 New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1
9	🇶🇦 Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1
10	🇨🇼 Curacao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1
11	🇵🇦 Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0
12	🇯🇴 Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0
13	🇭🇹 Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0
14	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0
15	🇹🇳 Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0
16	🇮🇶 Iraq	3	0	0	3	1	12	-11	0

You can swap Uruguay with Turkey if you like, but I generally do these to reflect elimination stages. Here 1-4 were eliminated having advanced to the third-place ranking, while 5-16 were eliminated by the group matches.

I might, if I can stay awake, do a rudimentary group difficulty coefficient, but since it won't change 11-16 I don't think I can be arsed.

Podium finish 🥉

 

[Jimlaad43]

You missed Scotland out.

Oops apologies. Fixed now

 

[daan]

Podium finish 🥉

Better than Italy.