Air India AI171 Crash: Boeing 787 Crashes on Takeoff from Ahmedabad

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Totally plausible mistake but I don't believe that would degrade performance below a single-engine level.

I think it's hard to compare the performance. In the case of a single-engine failure it's a sudden reduce in thrust. If the flaps are retracted prematurely then it's a sudden reduce in lift. The behaviour of the aircraft and the conditions to stay airborne are very different in the two cases.

With a sudden reduction in lift you get a sudden increase of the angle of attack, which may reduce lift further. It also increases the drag.

The 787 has powerful engines, but they are probably not powerful enough to pull the aircraft out of a nose-up stall configuration.
 
The thing is, modern aircraft don't let you stall so easily. FBW aircraft like the 777, 787, most Airbuses, and so on have limitations on what you can do as a pilot unless you forcibly disable them. Even non FBW aircraft like the Embraer 145 will forcibly push the nose down if it approaches a stall condition. I strongly believe there was a reduction in thrust, either via failure or improper procedures.
 
At 10:53 you can see a little blur on the lower right side of the plane, just inside the mains, and that is absolutely the RAT.
I do see it now and yes that does look like the turbine.
I think it's hard to compare the performance. In the case of a single-engine failure it's a sudden reduce in thrust. If the flaps are retracted prematurely then it's a sudden reduce in lift. The behaviour of the aircraft and the conditions to stay airborne are very different in the two cases.

With a sudden reduction in lift you get a sudden increase of the angle of attack, which may reduce lift further. It also increases the drag.

The 787 has powerful engines, but they are probably not powerful enough to pull the aircraft out of a nose-up stall configuration.
The lift situation is little more complicated that the thrust one. The flaps aren't really making more raw lift. Unless the plane is maneuvering the lift is always the same, which is the weight of the plane. The flaps are increasing the lift coefficient for a given AoA which allows the plane to takeoff sooner but once its in the air and climbing you can compensate for a reduction in lift coefficient by increasing the the AoA as long as you don't hit your AoA limit. With the engines producing power I don't expect the plane to start falling with the flaps retracted.

Earlier in another reply I mentioned that there was no way to "turn off" lift but I was thinking about flap settings. In the video @Keef posted there is an image of the plane showing what looks like shadows over the wing, which could indicate the spoilers being deployed, which would reduce the lift by a large amount and be a much worse case than retracting flaps.
 
I don't see a double engine flame out on take off so it obviously wasn't a complete engine failure. Which begs the question: why did the engines go dead? Was it due to an electrical failure? Initial evidence suggests that it could be the case with the very obvious sound of a RAT from the amateur video taken near the airport. But why? Why did the electronics fail? I think the issue lies on Air India's end, because some of their 787s went through a "refurbishment" which I believe was part of a large maintenance operation for some of the older aircraft. I read a comment on YouTube which said that the onboard entertainment system on one of the planes wasn't functioning properly. Something COULD have gone wrong after Air India tampered with the systems, so I think Boeing may be in the clear here. But who knows.
Don’t count Boeing out for responsibility in this crash just yet. Before John Barnett was assassinated, one of the points he was whistleblowing on were all the corners being cut on the 787 production line.

Honestly if Air India was doing their own refurbishment program to a plane with already questionable build quality, that’s even worse.
 
The lift situation is little more complicated that the thrust one. The flaps aren't really making more raw lift. Unless the plane is maneuvering the lift is always the same, which is the weight of the plane.
The flaps do increase the lift, by increasing the surface area and by increasing the coefficient of lift. They reduce the stall speed of the aircraft, allowing for slower speeds at takeoff and landing.

Lift is not generally equal to the weight of an aircraft. In level flight you need to adjust the airspeed and/or the angle of attack in order to get the right amount of lift.
With the engines producing power I don't expect the plane to start falling with the flaps retracted.
On the contrary, I don't expect an airliner to be able to pull itself out of a stall configuration by engine thrust alone. A fighter jet, perhaps, but not a fully loaded Boeing 787.
 
The flaps do increase the lift, by increasing the surface area and by increasing the coefficient of lift. They reduce the stall speed of the aircraft, allowing for slower speeds at takeoff and landing.
The lift required is based on the g load. At 1 g, which is the g load for level flight or a constant climb, lift must be equal to weight. The flaps are not creating more lift, that would mean that the aircraft would be maneuvering.
Lift is not generally equal to the weight of an aircraft. In level flight you need to adjust the airspeed and/or the angle of attack in order to get the right amount of lift.
For a non maneuvering aircraft lift and weight are generally equal. In level flight you adjust the load on the elevators to maintain the angle of attack to keep lift equal to weight. The flaps are used to change the angle of attack needed to produce a given amount of lift. This is what lowers the stall speed.
On the contrary, I don't expect an airliner to be able to pull itself out of a stall configuration by engine thrust alone. A fighter jet, perhaps, but not a fully loaded Boeing 787.
The retraction of the flaps doesn't mean that the plane has stalled. The engines aren't there to lift the plane, they are there to overcome the drag. As long as the lift required doesn't call for an AoA past the maximum the plane can fly. With engines the plane should at least be able to overcome the drag in level flight.
 
Don’t count Boeing out for responsibility in this crash just yet. Before John Barnett was assassinated, one of the points he was whistleblowing on were all the corners being cut on the 787 production line.

Honestly if Air India was doing their own refurbishment program to a plane with already questionable build quality, that’s even worse.
And there are also concerns there were more corners cut for planes delivered to Air India

 
The lift required is based on the g load. At 1 g, which is the g load for level flight or a constant climb, lift must be equal to weight. The flaps are not creating more lift, that would mean that the aircraft would be maneuvering.
You're confusing the conditions for equilibrium with the function of flaps. In order to maintain equilibrium, you need the lift to be approximately equal to the weight of the airplane.

But that equality doesn't mean that the produced lift is determined by the weight, just that the required lift is.

The produced lift is determined by airspeed, air density, wing surface area and its coefficient of lift. Flaps increase the surface area and change the shape of wing, increasing its coefficient of lift. Both of those contribute to make the wing produce more lift. The produced lift is independent from the weight of the airplane.

The wings, the flaps and the airflow doesn't care the slightest about equilibrium. They just produce as much lift as they can, it's up to the engineers and the pilots to create and maintain conditions for an equilibrium. In some cases flaps are required to achieve equilibrium, because you would not get enough lift without them.
The retraction of the flaps doesn't mean that the plane has stalled.
Of course it doesn't. It's a possible explanation, not a certain outcome.
As long as the lift required doesn't call for an AoA past the maximum the plane can fly.
Not necessarily, if it has already begun to stall you first need to recover from it.

What makes you think that the plane hadn't exceeded the maximum AoA?
 
What makes you think that the plane hadn't exceeded the maximum AoA?
As far as I'm aware the 787 has a stall protection system like Airbus has used for a long time. The plane won't let you maneuver it into a stall.

It still doesn't make any sense if both engines were running at full takeoff power because like I said the plane is fully capable of continuing the takeoff and climb on one engine, regardless of all the other settings. So the fact that it couldn't climb on both tells me it's an engine problem, not an anything else problem. Plus the RAT is deployed as can be seen in that video above so that's pretty definitive what the main problem is.



What could cause a dual engine failure, who knows.

To clarify the passenger's and this pilot's explanation of the "bang" and light flicker. This passenger was sitting very close to the wing spar on the plane. The RAT is located just a couple rows behind the person on the right side of the airplane. It has a springloaded deployment system and a door so when deployed it makes a sound a lot like the landing gear, you can hear it unlock, open, and slam and lock into place, and the passenger is close to it so it would've been audible. The light flicker is what happens as the electrical system transitions from one electrical source to another, in this case possibly from down-spooled engine generators or the batteries to the RAT.

To help address why people think they're not seeing flaps deployed on this plane, this plane like most jets has Fowler flaps. Fowler flaps don't simply fold down, they slide out on long tracks before curving downward, so the takeoff settings basically only increase the chord length of the wing rather than increasing camber, increasing wing area without increasing drag very much. So the flaps literally aren't "down" at all and therefore hard to see.
 
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Hello friends

I’m not going to elaborate in great detail but my gut feeling is that @eran0004 is correct and for a number of reasons.

- it is extremely unlikely that both engines dramatically failed at the most inopportune moment

- there is no real evidence to suggest they did

- there is no solid explanation for why the gear is still extended in the dual engine failure scenario

- we cannot fully ascertain from the poor quality videos that the RAT was definitely deployed (although the audio on the video as it flies past suggests it might have been)

If it is anything other than a case of moving the flap lever instead of the gear lever after departure I’ll be very surprised.

But I have been wrong before!
 
As far as I'm aware the 787 has a stall protection system like Airbus has used for a long time. The plane won't let you maneuver it into a stall.
Does it prevent you from retracting the flaps too early?

Hello friends

I’m not going to elaborate in great detail but my gut feeling is that @eran0004 is correct and for a number of reasons.
It's not my theory, and I'm not saying that it's the most likely explanation. It's one theory about what may have happened. There are pretty much two things that speak in favour of it:

1. The plane lost lift almost immediately after takeoff, at a point where the gear usually goes up.

2. The gear never came up.

There are other possible explanations for those two things.

A dual engine failure is rare. Dual engine failure at the same time and without any visible smoke, flames or sparks would be strange. But strange things have brought down planes before.
 
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Does it prevent you from retracting the flaps too early?


It's not my theory, and I'm not saying that it's the most likely explanation. It's one theory about what may have happened. There are pretty much two things that speak in favour of it:

1. The plane lost lift almost immediately after takeoff, at a point where the gear usually goes up.

2. The gear never came up.

There are other possible explanations for those two things.

A dual engine failure is rare. Dual engine failure at the same time and without any visible smoke, flames or sparks would be strange. But strange things have brought down planes before.
My thoughts exactly

There’s a lot more here that gives credence to that theory too but I’m not going into boring technical detail ☺️

Dan
 
Hello friends

I’m not going to elaborate in great detail but my gut feeling is that @eran0004 is correct and for a number of reasons.

- it is extremely unlikely that both engines dramatically failed at the most inopportune moment

- there is no real evidence to suggest they did

- there is no solid explanation for why the gear is still extended in the dual engine failure scenario

- we cannot fully ascertain from the poor quality videos that the RAT was definitely deployed (although the audio on the video as it flies past suggests it might have been)

If it is anything other than a case of moving the flap lever instead of the gear lever after departure I’ll be very surprised.

But I have been wrong before!
Check the video I posted which explains several pieces of evidence that it was some sort of dual engine failure. The RAT is a key piece, as it's both an emergency hydraulic pump and electrical generator. Here's another take which explains the RAT deployment modes in more detail:



RAT deployment modes:

  • dual engine failure (resulting in failure of both engine-driven hyd pumps and electrical generators)
  • low pressure in all three hyd systems (even if engines are working, engine-driven pumps could fail, but center electrical pumps would take over and allow control and gear to be raised, so all three need to fail for the RAT to deploy for hyd reasons)
  • loss of power to left and right instrumentation systems (even if engines are working, both engine generators could fail resulting in RAT deployment for electrical reasons. The APU is shut down during all phases of flight in most transport jets meaning there is no backup generator, thus the RAT)
  • If when in an approach mode, all four electric hydraulic pumps fail (aux for left, aux for right, and two normal electric pumps for the center. The approach phase is when you would need more hydraulic demand to deploy flaps and gear)
  • If when in takeoff mode, all four electric hydraulic pumps fail and an engine failure (which would result in only a single engine-driven pump being left, requiring a backup thus deploying the RAT)

(Note the logic of all this: There is a lot of mentions of hydraulic pumps, but four of the six hydraulic pumps are electrical, so the real failure mode in most of these cases actually has to do with the engine driven generators of which there are only two, and a general rule in commercial aviation is to always have two electrical generators available at all times. In all five of these conditions, the true problem is that there is only one or no electrical generators left. The 787 like many modern airplanes must have electricity for positive control.)

So at least one of those five things happened, we know that much. The total lack of climb performance implies a dual engine failure because a single engine is plenty to continue climbing after takeoff. A single engine failure is not enough to deploy the RAT which means there was more to it. Also, because either of the two center electrical hyd pumps are capable of retracting the gear but the gear didn't retract could imply those pumps weren't working, and the reason they wouldn't be working would be due to a total electrical failure, and a total electrical failure both would not happen without a dual engine failure and would deploy the RAT.

So here's the three really key pieces of evidence:

1. Gear didn't come up which would require both center electric hyd pumps to fail which would imply an electrical failure
2. Airplane didn't merely shallow its climb, it returned to earth which implies a loss of more than one engine's thrust
3. RAT was deployed which could be caused by either a total electrical failure or a total failure of all four electric hyd pumps combined with a single engine failure

I don't expect non-experts to quickly understand the logic of aircraft system redundancy so just trust me. For the most part, systems across all aircraft from all manufacturers operate in similar ways. I've got two type ratings so it's a bit easier for me to make educated guesses.
Does it prevent you from retracting the flaps too early?

Not that I'm aware of, but the system does prevent the AOA from exceeding critical. Regardless...
It's not my theory, and I'm not saying that it's the most likely explanation. It's one theory about what may have happened. There are pretty much two things that speak in favour of it:

1. The plane lost lift almost immediately after takeoff, at a point where the gear usually goes up.

2. The gear never came up.

There are other possible explanations for those two things.

A dual engine failure is rare. Dual engine failure at the same time and without any visible smoke, flames or sparks would be strange. But strange things have brought down planes before.
The flaps and gear are both controlled by the center hydraulic system on this plane, and the center hydraulic pumps are electric on this plane.

Dual engine failure is exceedingly rare. All of these jets have at least two FADEC engine computers, both of which operate independently but are aware of the other, one of which is designated the primary computer depending on the situation. In fact, in my Bombardier, the primary computer switches to the opposite side every time we start both engines from shutdown so both computers are regularly utilized and crosschecked. Without visible damage or smoke in the video I really don't know how to explain a dual engine failure other than a multi-layered computer and/or electrical failure. In both jets I've flown and presumably most others the engine computers are initialized and default powered by the batteries, but switch to generator power after engine start. So for the engine computers to fail would not only require an electrical failure but also a failure of the switching mechanism, preventing them from defaulting to the batteries.

Even if there is a total electrical and hydraulic failure in this plane, the engine computers should automatically switch to battery power and the RAT should deploy to maintain essential electricity and hydraulic pressure, but at that point you've still got two good engines with disconnected generators and hyd pumps. No big deal.

This could all have a much simpler explanation which has precedent. There is an example of engine issues from a Titan Airways A321 in 2020 caused by too much additive in the fuel.
 
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Check the video I posted which explains several pieces of evidence that it was some sort of dual engine failure. The RAT is a key piece, as it's both an emergency hydraulic pump and electrical generator. Here's another take which explains the RAT deployment modes in more detail:



RAT deployment modes:

  • dual engine failure (resulting in failure of both engine-driven hyd pumps and electrical generators)
  • low pressure in all three hyd systems (even if engines are working, engine-driven pumps could fail, but center electrical pumps would take over and allow control and gear to be raised, so all three need to fail for the RAT to deploy for hyd reasons)
  • loss of power to left and right instrumentation systems (even if engines are working, both engine generators could fail resulting in RAT deployment for electrical reasons. The APU is shut down during all phases of flight in most transport jets meaning there is no backup generator, thus the RAT)
  • If when in an approach mode, all four electric hydraulic pumps fail (aux for left, aux for right, and two normal electric pumps for the center. The approach phase is when you would need more hydraulic demand to deploy flaps and gear)
  • If when in takeoff mode, all four electric hydraulic pumps fail and an engine failure (which would result in only a single engine-driven pump being left, requiring a backup thus deploying the RAT)

(Note the logic of all this: There is a lot of mentions of hydraulic pumps, but four of the six hydraulic pumps are electrical, so the real failure mode in most of these cases actually has to do with the engine driven generators of which there are only two, and a general rule in commercial aviation is to always have two electrical generators available at all times. In all five of these conditions, the true problem is that there is only one or no electrical generators left. The 787 like many modern airplanes must have electricity for positive control.)

So at least one of those five things happened, we know that much. The total lack of climb performance implies a dual engine failure because a single engine is plenty to continue climbing after takeoff. A single engine failure is not enough to deploy the RAT which means there was more to it. Also, because either of the two center electrical hyd pumps are capable of retracting the gear but the gear didn't retract could imply those pumps weren't working, and the reason they wouldn't be working would be due to a total electrical failure, and a total electrical failure both would not happen without a dual engine failure and would deploy the RAT.

So here's the three really key pieces of evidence:

1. Gear didn't come up which would require both center electric hyd pumps to fail which would imply an electrical failure
2. Airplane didn't merely shallow its climb, it returned to earth which implies a loss of more than one engine's thrust
3. RAT was deployed which could be caused by either a total electrical failure or a total failure of all four electric hyd pumps combined with a single engine failure

I don't expect non-experts to quickly understand the logic of aircraft system redundancy so just trust me. For the most part, systems across all aircraft from all manufacturers operate in similar ways. I've got two type ratings so it's a bit easier for me to make educated guesses.


Not that I'm aware of, but the system does prevent the AOA from exceeding critical. Regardless...

The flaps and gear are both controlled by the center hydraulic system on this plane, and the center hydraulic pumps are electric on this plane.

Dual engine failure is exceedingly rare. All of these jets have at least two FADEC engine computers, both of which operate independently but are aware of the other, one of which is designated the primary computer depending on the situation. In fact, in my Bombardier, the primary computer switches to the opposite side every time we start both engines from shutdown so both computers are regularly utilized and crosschecked. Without visible damage or smoke in the video I really don't know how to explain a dual engine failure other than a multi-layered computer and/or electrical failure. In both jets I've flown and presumably most others the engine computers are initialized and default powered by the batteries, but switch to generator power after engine start. So for the engine computers to fail would not only require an electrical failure but also a failure of the switching mechanism, preventing them from defaulting to the batteries.

Even if there is a total electrical and hydraulic failure in this plane, the engine computers should automatically switch to battery power and the RAT should deploy to maintain essential electricity and hydraulic pressure, but at that point you've still got two good engines with disconnected generators and hyd pumps. No big deal.

This could all have a much simpler explanation which has precedent. There is an example of engine issues from a Titan Airways A321 in 2020 caused by too much additive in the fuel.

You missed one option for RAT deployment:

Manual deployment by the flight crew.

Once again, I’ll be very surprised if it’s anything other than inadvertent retraction of at least the trailing edge flaps rather than the gear.

Whilst dual engine failure appears plausible it just doesn’t fit circumstantially given the evidence we have right now. To put it in simple terms; the 787 was airborne for around 25 seconds, on a hot day where the aircraft was probably right at it’s performance limit. Had the engines failed with such a spectacular loss of thrust that the RAT deployed, after V1 but before gear retraction began, there is no way it would have continued flying for another 20 seconds or so; especially with the landing gear still down!

If one of the pilots inadvertently moved the flap lever instead of the gear lever, didn’t notice the error and instead assumed some sort of thrust loss and didn’t prioritise tasks as they should have (aviate, navigate, communicate) then the flight path progressed pretty much exactly as you would expect given the conditions and the aircraft involved.

Dan (current Boeing 767 Captain and operator of many jet types over the last 15 years).
 
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You're confusing the conditions for equilibrium with the function of flaps. In order to maintain equilibrium, you need the lift to be approximately equal to the weight of the airplane.

But that equality doesn't mean that the produced lift is determined by the weight, just that the required lift is.
You need to factor in the g load because that is directly telling you the produced lift. Granted we can't tell exactly what the g load is from the video but during climb out, it's usually around 1 g. There wouldn't be any reason to expect a deviation from this if the engines were running.
The produced lift is determined by airspeed, air density, wing surface area and its coefficient of lift. Flaps increase the surface area and change the shape of wing, increasing its coefficient of lift. Both of those contribute to make the wing produce more lift. The produced lift is independent from the weight of the airplane.
Yes, all of those things factor into lift, but the lift is going to have an influence on the aircraft's behavior. The center of lift and center of mass are offset for stability reasons so changes in lift will also create a change in pitch moment. It's very hard to simply increase the lift directly with no other effect on the plane. Either the flight control system or the pilot will compensate for changes in lift performance to maintain control of the plane, and in the case of a constant climb that means they'll keep the plane at 1 g. In this case all the flaps are doing are lowering the angle of attack of the plane. They aren't producing more lift to keep the plane in the air or help it climb. If the flaps were retracted the nose would be pitched up to maintain the same amount of lift. You only run into an issue if the AoA exceeds the limit. Given that the plane had taken off and managed to climb slightly, it had been accelerating, which would mean the AoA the chance of exceeding max AoA was only going down. That would reverse if the engines failed.

So in other words while the flaps can be said to increase the ability of the wings to make lift, they typically don't indicate a change in the actual amount of lift force made. G load is a good indicator of the amount of lift force made and it's about 1 g in a climb situation. With thrust the plane is unlikely to lose speed, which means that the wing has a lot of leeway in AoA to produce the lift needed. The most likely case of a stall is one resulting from loss of thrust. Maybe if the spoilers were deployed somehow and the flaps were in the worst possible configuration, the would be no AoA available to produce 1 g of lift, but to me this is less likely than engine failure.
The wings, the flaps and the airflow doesn't care the slightest about equilibrium. They just produce as much lift as they can, it's up to the engineers and the pilots to create and maintain conditions for an equilibrium. In some cases flaps are required to achieve equilibrium, because you would not get enough lift without them.
Yes, but this only at low speeds. The plane had already starting climbing and with thrust would have been kept well above stall speed.
Of course it doesn't. It's a possible explanation, not a certain outcome.
Agreed and we won't know what happened until the investigation finishes.
Not necessarily, if it has already begun to stall you first need to recover from it.

What makes you think that the plane hadn't exceeded the maximum AoA?
The attitude is fairly constant and the drop in climb speed is gradual. A stall is usually more abrupt. Also with large, low swept wingspans there can sometimes be some asymmetry in the stall, which is why I pointed out the slight right wing drop earlier, but this was very subtle. Flaps will tend to change the pitch moment which would also cause a change in the nose attitude which isn't visible.
I’m not going to elaborate in great detail but my gut feeling is that @eran0004 is correct and for a number of reasons.

- there is no real evidence to suggest they did
Again we won't know until the investigation is complete but I would say the video itself is strong evidence for engine failure based on the points I made above.
 
You need to factor in the g load because that is directly telling you the produced lift. Granted we can't tell exactly what the g load is from the video but during climb out, it's usually around 1 g. There wouldn't be any reason to expect a deviation from this if the engines were running.

Yes, all of those things factor into lift, but the lift is going to have an influence on the aircraft's behavior. The center of lift and center of mass are offset for stability reasons so changes in lift will also create a change in pitch moment. It's very hard to simply increase the lift directly with no other effect on the plane. Either the flight control system or the pilot will compensate for changes in lift performance to maintain control of the plane, and in the case of a constant climb that means they'll keep the plane at 1 g. In this case all the flaps are doing are lowering the angle of attack of the plane. They aren't producing more lift to keep the plane in the air or help it climb. If the flaps were retracted the nose would be pitched up to maintain the same amount of lift. You only run into an issue if the AoA exceeds the limit. Given that the plane had taken off and managed to climb slightly, it had been accelerating, which would mean the AoA the chance of exceeding max AoA was only going down. That would reverse if the engines failed.

So in other words while the flaps can be said to increase the ability of the wings to make lift, they typically don't indicate a change in the actual amount of lift force made. G load is a good indicator of the amount of lift force made and it's about 1 g in a climb situation. With thrust the plane is unlikely to lose speed, which means that the wing has a lot of leeway in AoA to produce the lift needed. The most likely case of a stall is one resulting from loss of thrust. Maybe if the spoilers were deployed somehow and the flaps were in the worst possible configuration, the would be no AoA available to produce 1 g of lift, but to me this is less likely than engine failure.

Yes, but this only at low speeds. The plane had already starting climbing and with thrust would have been kept well above stall speed.

Agreed and we won't know what happened until the investigation finishes.

The attitude is fairly constant and the drop in climb speed is gradual. A stall is usually more abrupt. Also with large, low swept wingspans there can sometimes be some asymmetry in the stall, which is why I pointed out the slight right wing drop earlier, but this was very subtle. Flaps will tend to change the pitch moment which would also cause a change in the nose attitude which isn't visible.

Again we won't know until the investigation is complete but I would say the video itself is strong evidence for engine failure based on the points I made above.
absolutely the investigation is key, but I just can’t see any evidence of a dual engine failure in either video.
 
absolutely the investigation is key, but I just can’t see any evidence of a dual engine failure in either video.
The RAT deployment IMO is very indicative of some form of engine failure. Full electrical failure is even less likely than a duel engine failure just due to how aircraft electrical systems are designed. Engines don't exactly have to make any visible signs of failure from the outside. Not to mention the lack of the typical buzzsaw noise at takeoff thrust of the high bypass GE or RR engines used on the 787. On both the E-Jets I previously worked on and the A320 series I currently work on, RAT deployment only happens in significant emergency situations like @Keef mentioned.
 
The RAT deployment IMO is very indicative of some form of engine failure. Full electrical failure is even less likely than a duel engine failure just due to how aircraft electrical systems are designed. Engines don't exactly have to make any visible signs of failure from the outside. Not to mention the lack of the typical buzzsaw noise at takeoff thrust of the high bypass GE or RR engines used on the 787. On both the E-Jets I previously worked on and the A320 series I currently work on, RAT deployment only happens in significant emergency situations like @Keef mentioned
The sound on the second video is the only thing that is troubling about the whole thing. I cannot see the RAT clearly but it does certainly sound like it comparing it to the JAL video on YouTube. But in that video the aircraft has already past the position of the photographer and the noises we can hear besides what sounds like a RAT are typical of what you’d expect with these engines. They are incredibly quiet!

If the RAT is confirmed to have been deployed it’s still my theory that it was manually deployed by the flight crew out of sequence with procedures with the belief they were experiencing a dual engine failure.

If anyone can give me a logical and plausible reason for both engines to simultaneously and catastrophically fail with no visible indications to the point the RAT has to immediately deploy at low level and stop supplying hydraulic power immediately after liftoff but still allow the aircraft to climb to 500ft with the gear down in extremely performance limiting conditions I’ll change my hypothesis!
 
If anyone can give me a logical and plausible reason for both engines to simultaneously and catastrophically fail with no visible indications to the point the RAT has to immediately deploy at low level and stop supplying hydraulic power immediately after liftoff but still allow the aircraft to climb to 500ft with the gear down in extremely performance limiting conditions I’ll change my hypothesis!
All I can think of is a total electrical failure for some reason which would prevent hydraulic retraction of the gear. Apparently on the 787 the two center hyd pumps are electric. The RAT is not capable of retracting the gear. Even if the gear began to retract it would've fallen back down as hyd pressure bled off which would happen very quickly under load.

What would cause that I'm not sure. A fuel contamination incident happened in 2020 to an A321 in the UK, causing one engine failure and the other to stall multiple times. But that, or even something as simple as poor combustion, would cause smoke at a minimum and we so evidence of bad combustion.

My only other theory is that the engines initially had a gearbox failure causing an electrical failure initially and then created a mechanical failure causing thrust to drop significantly. The engines don't necessarily need to "fail" to deploy the RAT in the 787, it just needs a dual electrical failure. Why thrust would drop, who knows. Could be that after the electrical failure the airspeed was too slow to ramp up the RAT quickly enough, so when the FADECs switched sources they died for lack of power from the RAT. If they default to batteries, perhaps the switching mechanism failed and killed the FADECs. Both FADECs dying for lack of power would be unprecedented as far as I know but at a low airspeed such as initial climb perhaps the RAT can't generate enough power, or the source switch took too long. The passenger did note the lights going out and coming back on after the "bang" of the RAT deploying, as well as the emergency lights coming on which would also be trigged by an electrical failure.

In general the way the plane transitions to a glide seems like thrust either ramped down slowly, or it bled off excess speed until reaching max AOA and held that attitude to the ground. Perhaps the gear up selection and engagement of those center hydraulic pumps is exactly what triggered the failure for some reason.
 
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The landing gear segment of this video is a big deal. Glad to have these heavy pilots with followers digging into this content - the 787 and other large planes are much more complex beasts than what I fly so although the core systems are very similar, they've got a lot more of them and a lot of fine details. Hell, I doubt that this little tidbit on the gear tilting is even something they bother teaching the pilots because its inconsequential - all the pilots need to know is what hyd system powers the gear and what happens if it fails.
 
You need to factor in the g load because that is directly telling you the produced lift. Granted we can't tell exactly what the g load is from the video but during climb out, it's usually around 1 g. There wouldn't be any reason to expect a deviation from this if the engines were running.
We can tell for sure that it's not 1 g, because the airplane stops climbing and goes into a descent.
Yes, all of those things factor into lift, but the lift is going to have an influence on the aircraft's behavior. The center of lift and center of mass are offset for stability reasons so changes in lift will also create a change in pitch moment. It's very hard to simply increase the lift directly with no other effect on the plane.
The pitch moment is controlled be the elevators, so that's not an issue. The question is not whether they could deploy the flaps to increase the lift with no other effect on the plane, but whether they may have lost lift because of premature retraction of the flaps.

It would be very hard to retract the flaps too early with no loss of lift.
In this case all the flaps are doing are lowering the angle of attack of the plane. They aren't producing more lift to keep the plane in the air or help it climb.
You seem to believe that "more lift" means more than 1g, but it's simple more lift than with no flaps, all else being equal. You assume that the wing always can create the same amount of lift at the same speed, as long as you adjust the angle of attack. That's not true. And it's certainly not true for the instant when the flaps are retracted because at that point the AoA has not yet been adjusted and the loss of lift - even if it's just for an instant - is real. You can feel this yourself the next time you go flying. When the flaps are retracted after takeoff you feel lighter for about a second.
If the flaps were retracted the nose would be pitched up to maintain the same amount of lift.
Not by any law of nature. The airplane systems or the pilot would perhaps try to pitch the nose up in order to generate more lift, but it's not certain that they would do that or that it would be successful. The pilot might be confused about what is happening not realising that the flaps has been retracted. The systems might be limiting the pitch in order to prevent a stall.
You only run into an issue if the AoA exceeds the limit.
Or if the airspeed is too slow so that the wing simply can't generate the amount of lift required.
Given that the plane had taken off and managed to climb slightly, it had been accelerating
To takeoff speed, yes. Designed to allow safe climb on one engine. Not designed to allow for premature retraction of the flaps.
, which would mean the AoA the chance of exceeding max AoA was only going down.
There's no reason to believe the AoA can't be exceeded at takeoff speed, or slightly above that.
So in other words while the flaps can be said to increase the ability of the wings to make lift, they typically don't indicate a change in the actual amount of lift force made.
Not in controlled flight, but only because the pilot aims to achieve a steady climb rate, compensating for the effect of the flaps. That does not mean that it's safe to retract the flaps immediately after takeoff. Don't confuse the goal of 1g with the effect of the flaps.
With thrust the plane is unlikely to lose speed, which means that the wing has a lot of leeway in AoA to produce the lift needed.
Assuming that it already has sufficient speed to stay in the air without flaps. Otherwise it would have to accelerate to that speed.

The attitude is fairly constant and the drop in climb speed is gradual. A stall is usually more abrupt. Also with large, low swept wingspans there can sometimes be some asymmetry in the stall, which is why I pointed out the slight right wing drop earlier, but this was very subtle. Flaps will tend to change the pitch moment which would also cause a change in the nose attitude which isn't visible.
Good points.
 
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Away from the technical side of things, because my knowledge of aircraft extends to "why is my Airbus barking at me", two bits of info over the weekend:

The plane required the entire length of the runway to take off. That's 3,505m/11,499ft, a third more than the figure I see listed - which strikes me as unusual, and suggests that whatever issues they were having did not begin only in the air. Could it have been overweight in addition to whatever specific flight control problems it experienced?

Secondly, a briefing reportedly given by "Indian aviation authorities" (don't know which; the various outlets I quickly notGoogled did not specifically name an authority) revealed the mayday call. I'm not sure if the ellipses indicate pauses or breaks in the transmission, but it has been quoted as: "Thrust not achieved... falling... Mayday! Mayday! Mayday!"

I don't know enough to make much sense out of that in collaboration with the other data.

One puzzle for me is the survivor. Flukes are flukes, but a lot of it isn't sitting right.

This guy's just climbed out of an emergency exit which popped open on a plane that belly-flopped onto this building and - heavy with aviation fuel - burst into a fireball that went higher than the plane ever did, sufficient enough to kill everyone else in front of his eyes (his words)?

1750068729656.png


I hope it's true.
 
We can tell for sure that it's not 1 g, because the airplane stops climbing and goes into a descent.
This would be after the engines failed though. The plane was initially able to climb for a few seconds, during which, assuming the engines had most of their power, I would consider a stall unlikely.

To perhaps help illustrate my view here is a generic flight envelope:

1750089193275.png


I removed the top which is not relevant (it mentioned ejection limit) and drew some additional lines. The plane is close to stall on takeoff but as it accelerates into climb (which it should with engines running) it pulls away from the stall limit. Flaps would indeed shift the envelope by some amount (not to scale) but in my estimate the very worst case would still see the plane stay above the stall limit as long as the engines were running.

Also in retrospect I should have moved the TO point more to the right because the plane isn't even taking off at the stall limit and would have some buffer.
The pitch moment is controlled be the elevators, so that's not an issue. The question is not whether they could deploy the flaps to increase the lift with no other effect on the plane, but whether they may have lost lift because of premature retraction of the flaps.

It would be very hard to retract the flaps too early with no loss of lift.
The flaps play a part too when they extend the chord and in doing so move the lift center, or by creating drag and moving the drag center. I bring it up for two reasons. The movement of the flaps could produce a change in attitude of the plane in video and because retracting the flaps could also provide some pitch moment to help orient the plane to the correct AoA.

A lift issue from flaps retraction would require the plane to be in a state very close to stall which I don't foresee if the engines are operating normally. Also keep in mind that the takeoff flap setting is much less aggressive than landing, so the difference between flaps up and down may not even be that great.
You seem to believe that "more lift" means more than 1g, but it's simple more lift than with no flaps, all else being equal. You assume that the wing always can create the same amount of lift at the same speed, as long as you adjust the angle of attack. That's not true. And it's certainly not true for the instant when the flaps are retracted because at that point the AoA has not yet been adjusted and the loss of lift - even if it's just for an instant - is real. You can feel this yourself the next time you go flying. When the flaps are retracted after takeoff you feel lighter for about a second.
If the lift exceeds the weight, by the plane can no longer be flying at 1 g. There is a non zero net force.

I do understand that the flaps expand the flight envelope and there are situations where 1g flight is impossible without flaps and I'm not disputing that, but the plane isn't going to get into that part of the envelope with thrust unless some other major factor is at play, maybe something like running into the wake vortex of a previous takeoff.

In other words, by the time the flaps may have retracted the plane would have sped up to a point where stall was no longer a factor, excluding some other problems.

You're correct that at the moment of flap configuration change the lift may slightly change, though this can be corrected very quickly by the change in moment from the flaps themselves, or from a slight change in the flight path. The worst case would likely be that the plane can no longer climb, but it would be able to fly level.
Not by any law of nature. The airplane systems or the pilot would perhaps try to pitch the nose up in order to generate more lift, but it's not certain that they would do that or that it would be successful. The pilot might be confused about what is happening not realising that the flaps has been retracted. The systems might be limiting the pitch in order to prevent a stall.
The flap moment could pitch the nose as I explained above, but let's say that the nose attitude is fixed. The plane would not have the lift to maintain 1g and would start to descend. This would create a vertical velocity component that would increase the AoA, increasing lift. As long as stall AoA was not hit, you could recover the lift lost. Loss of altitude would also mean more excess thrust as the engines wouldn't spend a tiny bit of their output fighting gravity. So the plane would accelerate and also increase lift.
Or if the airspeed is too slow so that the wing simply can't generate the amount of lift required.
This is really the same as hitting critical AoA though. It means that the lift that the wing provide at maximum AoA is less than the weight of the plane.

You're proposing that the retraction of the flaps caused the wings to be unable to produce enough lift to keep the plane in the air. I'd be surprised if that was the case if the plane was producing thrust because while the flaps retracted, it would accelerate, creating more and more of an AoA buffer.
To takeoff speed, yes. Designed to allow safe climb on one engine. Not designed to allow for premature retraction of the flaps.
It is actually, kind of. You use full power on takeoff to give yourself the maximum amount of energy to expend for an emergency situation. It's built in the procedures. As I'm not a pilot I'll defer to @Keef and @Dan_Tes on the piloting side of that and let them correct me if need be, but when the plane is designed you're not going to build it under the assumption that everything is going to be ideal. You have more thrust than you need for takeoff, you have more lift than you need for takeoff, and you have more structural integrity than you need for takeoff.
There's no reason to believe the AoA can't be exceeded at takeoff speed, or slightly above that.
The AoA limit can be exceeded at any point, even at maximum speed. It's not that exceeding the limit is impossible, it's exceedingly unlikely barring other problems.
Not in controlled flight, but only because the pilot aims to achieve a steady climb rate, compensating for the effect of the flaps. That does not mean that it's safe to retract the flaps immediately after takeoff. Don't confuse the goal of 1g with the effect of the flaps.
The pilot isn't compensating for the effect of the flaps, the pilot is trimming the plane. The flaps are only one tiny part of that process. So in effect if they retracted, the change in flight dynamics should be handled more or less automatically. I'll grant you that an unexpected situation may involve a response time on the part of the pilots, so I can't rule anything out and echo that we must wait on the investigation. But from what information is available, thrust loss is a better root cause of what happened in my perspective.
Assuming that it already has sufficient speed to stay in the air without flaps. Otherwise it would have to accelerate to that speed.
I think that assumption is safe to make.

I do see your side of the argument, and lift would have been lost at some point*. From what I see the loss of lift would have come from the lack of engines though. I may be unaware of some details which could change the situation.

* I don't want to get into the weeds too much, but it is actually possible to fly under the stall speed - the envelope simply becomes sub 1 g, also with an AoA limiter, the plane would have been prevented from exceeding max AoA, making a true stall very unlikely. The plane would not be able to maintain level flight though.

Away from the technical side of things, because my knowledge of aircraft extends to "why is my Airbus barking at me", two bits of info over the weekend:

The plane required the entire length of the runway to take off. That's 3,505m/11,499ft, a third more than the figure I see listed - which strikes me as unusual, and suggests that whatever issues they were having did not begin only in the air. Could it have been overweight in addition to whatever specific flight control problems it experienced?
That could be due to weight or having the flaps set incorrectly the entire time instead of retracted early. I'd wonder how easy of a mistake that is to make, but it's more of a pilot question. Planes do sometimes have WOW (weight on wheels) sensors for functionality like preventing landing gear retraction accidentally on the ground, but I'm not aware of any that actually try to estimate the weight of the plane.
Secondly, a briefing reportedly given by "Indian aviation authorities" (don't know which; the various outlets I quickly notGoogled did not specifically name an authority) revealed the mayday call. I'm not sure if the ellipses indicate pauses or breaks in the transmission, but it has been quoted as: "Thrust not achieved... falling... Mayday! Mayday! Mayday!"

I don't know enough to make much sense out of that in collaboration with the other data.

One puzzle for me is the survivor. Flukes are flukes, but a lot of it isn't sitting right.

This guy's just climbed out of an emergency exit which popped open on a plane that belly-flopped onto this building and - heavy with aviation fuel - burst into a fireball that went higher than the plane ever did, sufficient enough to kill everyone else in front of his eyes (his words)?

View attachment 1458108

I hope it's true.
Yes, the survivor situation is hard to make sense of. Different parts of the plane are more of less safe in a crash. One of my former professors used class time to show some of the work he did with a controled plane crash to study survivability and results changed pretty drastically with location, but the rate of survivable mostly varied with length along the plane. You'd think people sitting near by would have survived too.

That said the crash test was a very hard landing, and not crashing into a building.

 
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Away from the technical side of things, because my knowledge of aircraft extends to "why is my Airbus barking at me", two bits of info over the weekend:

The plane required the entire length of the runway to take off. That's 3,505m/11,499ft, a third more than the figure I see listed - which strikes me as unusual, and suggests that whatever issues they were having did not begin only in the air. Could it have been overweight in addition to whatever specific flight control problems it experienced?

Secondly, a briefing reportedly given by "Indian aviation authorities" (don't know which; the various outlets I quickly notGoogled did not specifically name an authority) revealed the mayday call. I'm not sure if the ellipses indicate pauses or breaks in the transmission, but it has been quoted as: "Thrust not achieved... falling... Mayday! Mayday! Mayday!"

I don't know enough to make much sense out of that in collaboration with the other data.

One puzzle for me is the survivor. Flukes are flukes, but a lot of it isn't sitting right.

This guy's just climbed out of an emergency exit which popped open on a plane that belly-flopped onto this building and - heavy with aviation fuel - burst into a fireball that went higher than the plane ever did, sufficient enough to kill everyone else in front of his eyes (his words)?

View attachment 1458108

I hope it's true.
The first several minutes of VAS Aviation's video address the ADS-B data, FlightRadar24's statement on the data, the actual airport diagram and published distances available:



I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "required" the full length of the runway. What I do know with experience is that Air India's SOP most likely requires all aircraft to utilize the runway's full length for takeoff, that is to start at the beginning of the runway, not at an intersection partway down. This is very common for American scheduled airline carriers. The (Jeppesen) airport diagram for this airport publishes multiple lengths from multiple points. My prior employer SkyWest also did not allow shortened runway lengths, but my current employer does because we're not a scheduled carrier.

I'm not sure where exactly the plane rotated, but I've seen clips or a Youtube video where somebody georeffed the takeoff video. I can't find the video at the moment, it may have been an Instagram reel or something.

As for the passenger, apparently he was sitting immediately in front of the wing spar which is the strongest part of the plane. I haven't seen organized images of the wreckage yet but it's possible the fuselage broke apart right in front of him and he simply jumped out and ran. The fire would've been concentrated where the fuel is, the wings, which would prevent the use of the overwing exits, and the fire would've been concentrated next to and behind this guy so I'd say it's really unlikely that he went out a side exit. Anybody in the rear of the plane would've had that much further to go, and anybody further forward would've taken the brunt of the frontal impact. I think he just got lucky. He's also not the only ever sole-survivor, Wikipedia has an entire list of aviation accidents which had a sole survivor.

Edit: Here's a seat diagram from CBS, apparently this 787 doesn't have overwing exits but they are in front of and behind the wings.

gettyimages-2219197929.jpg


Looks like he not only had first dibs on an exit but he's also sitting in a spot that is likely to remain intact even if the front falls off. I think anybody behind this would've been subjected to both a more complex exit path and a lot more fire and smoke. Not sure how much this would effect the movement of a fireball, but the wind that day was directly down the runway so wind would be blowing the smoke and pushing the fire toward the rear of the aircraft.

Another thing VAS mentions is that it's apparently illegal to broadcast or capture ATC audio publicly in India, so anything that isn't a direct quote by a controller or somebody very close to the cockpit in the plane is total conjecture. The guy who survived could not possibly have heard that, and the controllers will be asked to remain silent pending the investigation.
 
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I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "required" the full length of the runway.
Times of India quoted the "top officials" as saying that "the jet had nearly exhausted the 3.5km runway".

Which I guess means it almost ran out of solid floor to lift off from before it did, having begun its roll at the start. I think I saw a figure of 70m of runway remaining quoted somewhere.
 
Times of India quoted the "top officials" as saying that "the jet had nearly exhausted the 3.5km runway".

Which I guess means it almost ran out of solid floor to lift off from before it did, having begun its roll at the start. I think I saw a figure of 70m of runway remaining quoted somewhere.
Gotta be honest, I don't trust or believe that at all lol.

I'm going to keep looking for this video that georeffed the takeoff based on that tiny building you can see in the takeoff roll video. That building exists on google maps.

Edit: The georeffed video I'm looking for backed up the ADS-B datapoints suggesting the plane rotated somewhere around or just after taxiway C which is a long roll but also not out of the question if they accepted a "turning pad" departure which has a published length of 8999 feet.
 
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I'm curious about this youtuber, he's got 690k subscribers, the video above has 12m views, and here is his rather intriguing Channel trailer, published in 2011, filmed by a guy with the same surname (and there's even a book written by his wife). Basically he maintains that he should/could have been one of the first 9/11 victims (Flight 11 First Officer), but God saved him, sort of.
I guess there's no way to verify if this story is true or fake.

 
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I'm curious about this youtuber, he's got 690k subscribers, the video above has 12m views, and here is his rather intriguing Channel trailer, published in 2011, filmed by a guy with the same surname (and there's even a book written by his wife). Basically he maintains that he should/could have been one of the first 9/11 victims (Flight 11 First Officer), but God saved him, sort of.
I guess there's no way to verify if this story is true or fake.


Look him up. All pilot certificates in the US are public record and can be searched in FAA databases. That pilot is fully aware that anybody who is curious can at minimum look up his certificates and ratings to see if it’s plausible.
 

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