I mean what's "real".
One of the main ways he could win is if left wingers are convinced he'll lose and stay home. So there has to be some panic generated among left-wingers to get out and vote. And I think that panic is already starting. But I seriously doubt that Trump's circumstances now have made him any more popular than he was in 2020 or 2016. In both of those cases, he didn't manage to do well among the voting public.
More of a concern in my mind is whether a state is willing to overturn its own results. This has been made legally much easier in some key states since the last go around.
There are enough people that look at their life now compared to when Trump was in office and think it was better under Trump. I would wager many Americans don't understand the nuances of government and just put all their blame on the president. They're going to vote for Trump because they want that life back, even if it's not even remotely possible to get there. All you need to do is look at Biden's approval rating to see this. While the president doesn't control the economy, they do get the blame for it when it's not going well.
Biden isn't free from scandal and his son is very much a liability. So is Kamala Harris who's done...honestly, I don't know what she's done, I feel like the Democrats are actively trying to keep her out of the spotlight. While those two people are low for most voters, some will take that into consideration. Although, Trump's kids are a liability too and I'm not sure who he'd take as a running mate, someone probably equally unqualified as Trump himself.
Republicans will likely turn out in force, even with a criminal Trump as the candidate, because for them, he's better than a Democrat. Mail-in and drop-off voting has been kneecapped in many places too, which will hurt Democrats more than Republicans. That will put a dent in Biden's chances.
Finally, I would think there will be a large number of apathetic voters in 2024. If you hated the choices in 2020, you're really going to hate them in 2024 since both Biden and Trump have had 4 additional years to sour people's opinions. If you think nothing ever changes and see that the two choices are exactly the same as last time, you might not even bother to vote. You could vote third party, but it's been drilled into so many people for so long that third parties are useless, I doubt that will happen.
I dread the thought that it could be Biden v. Trump again. To me, that's a lose/lose situation and won't help the country when we're right on the edge of needing strong leadership due to the impending climate disasters.
I would hope that there's a dark horse out there that will suddenly rocket into the spotlight, but we're running out of time rather quickly for that to happen. Instead, we just keep getting crazier and crazier Republicans and RFK Jr. who's equally as nuts.
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