Are we headed for an Ice Age?

[meister_dan]

Ice Age? In 2006? I think not.. It is as hot as it gets here in the Philippines..

 

[Leet_Newb]

The world goes in between Glacial periods (Cold) and Interglacial peroids(Warm).They are called that because the Glacial periods are longer than the interglacials. Right now we are an Interglacial period and will eventually be moving to colder climates, however non of you will be alive to see the tempature drop.

 

[Solid Lifters]

OK, I've been reading up on this global warming stuff, I can say that I'm a bit scared, now. Two reasons:

1. Pictures showing dramatic proof of climate change. However, there were no evidence of what a "normal" weather pattern is like in these areas, and these could show some unusually cold seasons. But, plenty of picutres support this type of argument, with not a lot of "debunking" popping up, but I'm sure there could be some. This link... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/.../sci_nat_how_the_world_is_changing/html/1.stm ...is an example of what I found when searching for "picture proof of global warming."

2. The US Pentagon warns Bush: Yep, our very own Pentagon is worried about global warming. Now, when the Pentagon gets worried, I get worried! http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1153513,00.html Again, there's a lot of proof that this is real, with not a lot of people debunking this bit of information. This story can easily be found on the net.

 

[a6m5]

OK, I've been reading up on this global warming stuff, I can say that I'm a bit scared, now. Two reasons:

1. Pictures showing dramatic proof of climate change. However, there were no evidence of what a "normal" weather pattern is like in these areas, and these could show some unusually cold seasons. But, plenty of picutres support this type of argument, with not a lot of "debunking" popping up, but I'm sure there could be some. This link... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/.../sci_nat_how_the_world_is_changing/html/1.stm ...is an example of what I found when searching for "picture proof of global warming."

2. The US Pentagon warns Bush: Yep, our very own Pentagon is worried about global warming. Now, when the Pentagon gets worried, I get worried! http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1153513,00.html Again, there's a lot of proof that this is real, with not a lot of people debunking this bit of information. This story can easily be found on the net.

Is "Observer" a some type of a tabloid paper? The story's totally crazy. Also on BBC link, they compare the pictures of Mt. Hood in summer of 1985 and 2002. In 2002 picture, the mountain looks like a grand canyon. When I saw it like a month ago, it didn't look anything like the 2002 pic.

 

[Solid Lifters]

Is "Observer" a some type of a tabloid paper? The story's totally crazy.

That's why I posted it wasn't the only source. Tabloid paper, or not, it's a true story. Freaky, huh?

Also on BBC link, they compare the pictures of Mt. Hood in summer of 1985 and 2002. In 2002 picture, the mountain looks like a grand canyon. When I saw it like a month ago, it didn't look anything like the 2002 pic.

That's why I said there was probably enough evidence to debunk the pictures I posted, but, searching for more pics for proof of global warming, I came across some pics of just last year, and the year before then. It was proof that a lot of ice snow is melting from places it has never, in our lifetime, before. Sorry, I don't have those links available, but they're out there.

 

[a6m5]

That's why I posted it wasn't the only source. Tabloid paper, or not, it's a true story. Freaky, huh?


That's why I said there was probably enough evidence to debunk the pictures I posted, but, searching for more pics for proof of global warming, I came across some pics of just last year, and the year before then. It was proof that a lot of ice snow is melting from places it has never, in our lifetime, before. Sorry, I don't have those links available, but they're out there.

To tell you the truth, I don't know which side to believe on the global warming deal. It seems like both sides has some evidence to prove/disprove global warming. I'd love to hear famine's take on this subject!

VIPFREAK: Great job on the "Shining" pic.

 

[VIPFREAK]

VIPFREAK: Great job on the "Shining" pic.

Thanks

 

[Cosmic]

Global warming? Ice age?
Psssfffff! Screw that! I have other things to worry about.

 

[Touring Mars]

Is "Observer" a some type of a tabloid paper? The story's totally crazy. Also on BBC link, they compare the pictures of Mt. Hood in summer of 1985 and 2002. In 2002 picture, the mountain looks like a grand canyon. When I saw it like a month ago, it didn't look anything like the 2002 pic.

Noooo!!!... the Observer is the sister paper of the Guardian... neither are tabloids... The Guardian is the best newspaper in the UK (IMO) by a country mile... Observer is basically the Guardian on a Sunday.... it's a bit on the liberal side... in other words, I can't see Viper Zero reading it much!! but by and large it is the least partisan quality broadsheet newspaper (apart from maybe The Independent) in the UK...

incidentally, if the Ice Age hit Scotland, I'm not sure anyone would even notice

 

[sukerkin]

It's a fascinating debating point, gentlemen and it's got longevity too as I was reading up on this sort of thing back in the 70's (when I was roughly Cosmic's age (I seem to recall you were mid-teens C, apologies if that's wrong)).

The fact is that the Earths 'natural' state is frozen and we've just been lucky enough to be around in one of the warm periods.

'Global Warming' is a source of much environmentalist hoo-hah and generates a lot of hot air but the general trends are far too monumental to be much bothered by what man gets up to.

For example, one good volcanic eruption puts more greenhouse gasses et al into the atmosphere than our worst efforts for a year. I'm not saying that we're not having a negative impact, just that it's not that significant.

As a counter-pointal fact, one of the worst things we've done lately is reduce particulate emissions - that's increased the planets albedo so it's absorbing less heat and thus sets up the preconditions for an ice-age transition !

The earth's temperature control systems are far too massive and complicated for us to model effectively so all we can really do is read the 'history'. That tells us that the Winter's coming and will be around for a while.

However, it's unlikely that that'll be our only problem as the magnetic fields on it's way to inverting at the moment. Without that generating the radiation absorbing fields around the planet we're all going to get nuked by Mother Sun's microwave emissions anyhow. Oh and be prepared to say goodbye to your electronic goods when there's a solar flare too .

Then again, once the Extinction comet hits, we won't really care about that anyhow !

Am I the only one hearing "We're all doomed!" in my head in a broad Scottish accent ?

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Well... I've always wanted to go to the snow, now its coming to me.

 

[FoolKiller]

It may turn out that we really need global warming but it's not clear yet whether humanity has had any significant impact on the global climate.

I had always heard that the global warming was supposed to trigger the beginning of the ice age somehow. At least that is what my environmentalist brother tells me.

From what data I have seen the average global temperature has barely risen half a degree in over 100 years and that has been at a steady rate. It seems to me that if we are making things worse the rate of growth would increase over time.

On top of all that, if global warming is what triggers an ice age and they happen in cycles then why are we concerned about human emissions causing it? If it is natural then it seems that our effect is minimal. If the gloabal warming doesn't trigger it then maybe we are helping to stop it?

I have recently heard that groups are claiming the recent heat wave in the eastern US was due to global warming. Seems odd since we got up to 98 degrees (F) here but the high on record for that day is 101 degrees (F) back in 1937. That tells me it may be hot, but not new warming.

I have bigger fear of a sudden ice age from a natural cycle than I do of global warming caused by humans. The wooly mammoth incident that Danoff presented is part of the reason. I think that if it happens there is little we can do about it. Well, maybe we can live in caves. Those stay at a steady 50-something degrees.

 

[daan]

Am I the only one hearing "We're all doomed!" in my head in a broad Scottish accent ?

Shall I oblige?

We're all doomed!

There you go.

 

[sukerkin]

Cheers Dann 👍

Now can we try for "It was a braw wee windswept night when ... "

(N.B. I don't think my quote is exact there (it's been a while) but you get the idea ).

As to other 'Dooms', we have a plethora to choose from.

Nuking ourselves back to the Stone Age is a popular favourite, as is a bacteria fed on bio-degradable plastic mutating to eat all plastics with predicatable dire consequences, as is the expiration of oil reserves ... actually that last one is a real chiller (no pun intended in an Ice Age thread), particularly as I can fully understand the economic underpinnings of the disaster.

The scenario goes from the premise that one of the major reasons why we can support the population we have on Earth is through the use of fertilisers. Now a lot of these are made using oil (something I actually didn't know 'till I read up on this). By the time the oil runs out for good, the earths population will be something like five times what we can support from agriculture that is suddenly bereft of the fertiliser it needs.

I think it doesn't take much imagination to see where that trail ends and it's pretty bad. Not only do you have the spectre of nations fighting over food but the billions of starved dead give raise to plagues and pollution of water supplies which add further to the death toll. Plus, with the loss of oil based products like plastics and, well, erm, petrol, the advanced nations cannot sustain their infra structure and the decline just hastens from there with total economic collapse .

All I can say is, take solace in the world we have, flawed as it may be, because we won't have it for very long ...
time for a bit of eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we may die I reckon .

 

[Mark T]

The weather has been kind of crazy recently, and if you look through history it seems to have gradually got worse.

 

[EvilToast]

on the subject of dooms the other one that scares me is the meteor theory, theres supposed to be one heading near the earth by 2010 i think ( discovery channel figures) and that one seems to be a more close doom than the other ones.

 

[Solid Lifters]

OK, I'm watching the movie right now, and I did some research based on the info they provided in the movie The Day After Tomorrow.

The movie is BS.

In the movie, the "wise old science dude" claimed a "super cell" was taking very cold air from the troposphere and is flash freezing everything in its path. He said, helicopter fuel freezes at -150 degrees F. But, the helicopter fuel lines flash freeze instantly which indicates a much colder temperature.

But, the troposphere has a maximum cold temp of -62 degrees F according to NASA... http://liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/academy/space/atmosphere.html . The mesosphere reaches a max mimimum temp of -135 degrees F.

So, how could cold air from the troposphere flash freeze everything, especially aviation fuel which freezes at -150F according to the movie, when it can only reach a temp of -65F? It can't.

 

[EvilToast]

and thats why its a movie.

 

[FoolKiller]

The scenario goes from the premise that one of the major reasons why we can support the population we have on Earth is through the use of fertilisers. Now a lot of these are made using oil (something I actually didn't know 'till I read up on this). By the time the oil runs out for good, the earths population will be something like five times what we can support from agriculture that is suddenly bereft of the fertiliser it needs.

I just need to jump in on this. While I do not know about commercial farms I do know that the fertilizer used on many small country family farms in the US do not use any fertilizers with an oil base to them. If it is there it wasn't from an oil well of any sort.

Three of my uncles and two cousins all farm, my father grew up on a farm, and both sets of grandparents farmed (yes I grew up in Po'dunk, Kentucky). From what little experience I have had on these farms they never used a commercial fertilizer. They took the waste from either their own cattle or the cattle farms up the road and plowed it into their fields. If there is petroleum in that I don't know where it came from.

A while back I had read an article where a sewage plant somewhere was discussing selling the solid human waste to commercial farms for fertilizer, but a lot of people were opposed to it.

Based off this same principle I water the flower gardens and house plants using water taken from my freshwater aquarium. It works as well as Miracle Grow.

While plastics and other commodities will become an issue if we do run out of oil I don't think we will ever have a fertilizer problem, seeing as how every living creature on this planet creates natural waste full of nitrogen and ammonia.

 

[Danoff]

The scenario goes from the premise that one of the major reasons why we can support the population we have on Earth is through the use of fertilisers. Now a lot of these are made using oil (something I actually didn't know 'till I read up on this). By the time the oil runs out for good, the earths population will be something like five times what we can support from agriculture that is suddenly bereft of the fertiliser it needs.

People always assume that just because things are done a certain way - they have to be done that way.

You have no concept of what humanity has achieved if you think that when we run out of oil we won't be able to have fertiliser or plastic.

 

[Pako]

Actually we may be in one right now. I don't know how many of you knew this but we're currently in an Ice Epoch!

Here's a quote

"We are currently beyond the expected end-point of an interglacial period that began more than 10,000 years ago. We are thus at a point on the paleoclimatic timetable where the onset of a new 100,000-year ice age is expected and may even be already in progress. The global climate has been generally cooling over the past 6,000 to 8,000 years,"

http://members.tripod.com/~american_almanac/hecht1.htm#f1

We're in what is called an interglacial period - a warm spot between Ice ages.

This interglacial period started roughly 13,000 years ago (that's 7000 years before some people think the Earth was created). Interglacial periods last between 10,000 and 15,000 years - which means we're right at the point where ours should end.

I've actually read that scientists think interglacial periods can end really quickly. They've found Wolly Mammoth remains preserved in Ice fairly well - meaning that at one point it was hanging around during the summer doing it's thing and as winter set in it got trapped and froze. But the thing is, if it had thawed again the next summer, the mammoth remains would have decayed. Which means that scientists think it occured at the end of an interglacial period and the temperature dropped that much over ONE WINTER!!!

So this could be it. This could be the last summer before the Ice Age sets back in. How freaking cool is that?

If it starts to snow I'll put away my shorts and put on my pants.

Lots of speculation, but pretty cool never the less.

 

[sukerkin]

@FoolK and Dan - a little serious and a little personal in your responses chaps. As a qualified historian and economist, as well as an engineer (plus being ancient and well read ), I think I have a fair idea of what humanity has achieved and there is no denying the inventiveness of the species. Anyway, put that aside as it's not an interesting topic of conversation (at least not here).

I didn't say that all fertilisers came from oil (I grew up working on a farm too) - the article I'm referring too simply alluded that the intensive agriculture required to feed a population five times what it is today would necessitate their use and that their abscence would begin the 'house of cards' scenaro. I'll try and find the original article as, whether you agree with the premeses or not, it's intriguing.

One thing specifically peaked my interest tho' Dan; there's another source of plastic than oil? I know we can construct certain long chain molecules from cellulose but a non-petrochemical source for plastic is a new one on me. Can you elaborate (I'm guessing I'm out of scientific date here)?

 

[Andrew R]

The ice age could be scary, I live in Australia though so I'm not too sure of the effect it would have on me.

The fertilizer one is quite a dilly of a pickle but if it's meant to happen when there's around 5 times our current population, that's 5 times the fecal matter so really, all you have to do is get a few people here and there to do their business in the garden and BAM! problem somewhat solved.

As you can see, I'm basing this on no facts, I just think it may be kind of funny to walk down a street where there's like 10 people taking a dump on someones lawn.

 

[FoolKiller]

As you can see, I'm basing this on no facts, I just think it may be kind of funny to walk down a street where there's like 10 people taking a dump on someones lawn.

So, is that a paying job?

 

[Cap'n Jack]

I'd say no. It'll become normal to take a dump on somebodys lawn. Just as normal as it is to... I'll come back to this.

 

[barryl85]

Ice age begins with a slight change in snow usually

Usually?? How often does it happen?

"We are currently beyond the expected end-point of an interglacial period that began more than 10,000 years ago. We are thus at a point on the paleoclimatic timetable where the onset of a new 100,000-year ice age is expected and may even be already in progress. The global climate has been generally cooling over the past 6,000 to 8,000 years,"

Who tells them this stuff? Fair enough time lines are possible to predict but a timeline like that?

How can they tell it will happen again? "We are currently beyond the expected end-point of an interglacial period" and as for that statement thats b.s. how many ice ages have there been? and how can they tell this?

So what it just ices up for xxxxx-yrs then decides to heat up for a while, stays hot for xxxxx-yrs then back to ice we go?? dont think so, and please someone explain how they get the "100,000-year ice age is expected" figure? thats just stupid - how can anyone predict this?

Im not saying they are wrong - Im not saying im correct but it all sounds a bit strange and to be honest very unbelievable.

I mean every year its predicted by some guy that Jupiter will blow up !!!

Anymore stories?

The global climate has been generally cooling over the past 6,000 to 8,000 years,"

Was this on the BBC Weather hompage? is there a graph made with this info every 10k yrs???

 

[FoolKiller]

How can they tell it will happen again? "We are currently beyond the expected end-point of an interglacial period" and as for that statement thats b.s. how many ice ages have there been? and how can they tell this?

Ice cores, soil samples, geologic formations, tree rings, etc. Usually by studying things that have been around for thousands of years you can tell what major global events have happened. Many things in nature tend to run in a cycle, the most obvious being the seasons, and when research shows events such as an ice age happening within approximate time frames repeatedly one can only assume that it is a natural cycle. Unfortunatley most of this approximization can be on a give or take 1,000 years type of basis and so we could worry about the start of an ice age that won't happen until our entire family line is gone or we have the technology to live through it without blinking an eye. Of course we could be off and something catastrophic that could trigger an event like this tomorrow and we won't know until it is too late.

So while ancient cave men weren't measuring ice ages in record books major events like this leave "scarring" in nature that we can study to determine how these things work.

 

[barryl85]

So while ancient cave men weren't measuring ice ages in record books major events like this leave "scarring" in nature that we can study to determine how these things work.

Nice dialysis 👍 - but its not that i dont know how the get the information it is obvious about the scarring - i just dont have faith in their accuracy - i dont believe they can just turn around and say "oh well the next ice age should last around 100k years" it just doesnt make sense.

And how can the tell this is a regular occurence - i just dont believe that the facts or should i say scarring can be carried back long enough to show this - i mean they are talking about every 100,000 years - with a rest period of 15,000 years to me its just not possible!

 

[sukerkin]

Hi Darryl

Try having a read of this site to see if it gives you the background info you need:

http://users.aber.ac.uk/ejh2/ice cores.htm

 

[barryl85]

Hi Darryl

Try having a read of this site to see if it gives you the background info you need:

http://users.aber.ac.uk/ejh2/ice cores.htm

Thanks sukerkin i will have a look - its not that i do not believe all this is true - it just takes alot for me to believe something is true like this! and i like to look at facts about how someone can predict something of this scale

Not being cheeky but its Barry L i just didnt use capitals! 👍