Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

Deal or No Deal?

  • Voted Leave - May's Deal

  • Voted Leave - No Deal

  • Voted Leave - Second Referendum

  • Did not vote/abstained - May's Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - No Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - Second Referendum

  • Voted Remain - May's Deal

  • Voted Remain - No Deal

  • Voted Remain - Second Referendum

Results are only viewable after voting.
Liquid
I was just about to post the same thing.

There was no obligation from the British government to trigger Article 50 and there still isn't any obligation to see it through to the end.
Just for what it's worth.
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Okay then! Now what are you to do? What are the possible scenarios?
 
Dotini
Okay then! Now what are you to do? What are the possible scenarios?
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There's still 3 basic options: Hard (full) Brexit, Soft (partial) Brexit, and No Brexit.

The current government (Conservative/DUP) favour Hard Brexit - the main opposition (Labour and some Conservatives) favour Soft Brexit, while others still (e.g. SNP) favour No Brexit.

However, no-one has the guts to fully support No Brexit because there are simply too many people who want it (i.e. 52% of the UK population), so it is politically suicidal to favour No Brexit, hence why the main opposition favour 'Soft Brexit' (which involves coming out of the EU, but remaining in the Customs Union and European Single Market). The big problem with that option, however, is that not only do a lot of British people not want it, but the EU is also pretty solidly against it - they call it the 'Cake' approach (as in "you can't have your cake and eat it"), arguing that continued Single Market access (for which the current Customs Union is required) is a privilege of EU membership.

The Conservatives are also in a bind because their leader, Theresa May, wanted to Remain in the EU, and like some other Tories, she also seems to be in favour of what looks very like Soft Brexit i.e. leaving the EU but striking a favourable deal with the EU that will essentially mean retaining Single Market access but without sticking to the current Customs Union (favouring instead the creation/negotiation of a new customs union), which, ironically, is precisely what the Labour party are asking for now as well. But, those who favour Soft Brexit are likely going to be disappointed because the EU itself will make it nigh on impossible for such an outcome to occur, because (unsurprisingly) they want to show that a member state that leaves the EU will lose all the benefits that come with full membership, which includes tariff-free Single Market access.

But Labour could force the issue by basically beating the government on the main decisions that will have to be passed by parliament, and perhaps even forcing a new election that could see Labour take power. The Tories have to balance the fact that their core support wants nothing less that Hard Brexit, but that their core support is not strong enough to deliver a clear majority in Parliament, and that if Labour can convince enough people that Soft Brexit is the way forward (in spite of the fact that it is practically impossible to achieve), then the Tories could be kicked out before they can deliver Hard Brexit. But, the trouble is that no matter what the British people want (which increasingly looks like Soft Brexit/a cherry-picked sweet deal/the 'cake and eat it' idea) will be met with derision and anger from the EU - in other words, no matter which way you slice it, Soft Brexit will not happen. I also don't think that No Brexit will happen - not least because there are too many people in the UK who want out, but that basically leaves us with a situation where we face Hard Brexit but possibly without a government capable of delivering it.
 
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Touring Mars
There's still 3 basic options: Hard (full) Brexit, Soft (partial) Brexit, and No Brexit.

The current government (Conservative/DUP) favour Hard Brexit - the main opposition (Labour and some Conservatives) favour Soft Brexit, while others still (e.g. SNP) favour No Brexit.

However, no-one has the guts to fully support No Brexit because there are simply too many people who want it (i.e. 52% of the UK population), so it is politically suicidal to favour No Brexit, hence why the main opposition favour 'Soft Brexit' (which involves coming out of the EU, but remaining in the Customs Union and European Single Market). The big problem with that option, however, is that not only do a lot of British people not want it, but the EU is also pretty solidly against it - they call it the 'Cake' approach (as in "you can't have your cake and eat it"), arguing that continued Single Market access (for which the current Customs Union is required) is a privilege of EU membership.

The Conservatives are also in a bind because their leader, Theresa May, wanted to Remain in the EU, and like some other Tories, she also seems to be in favour of what looks very like Soft Brexit i.e. leaving the EU but striking a favourable deal with the EU that will essentially mean retaining Single Market access but without sticking to the current Customs Union (favouring instead the creation/negotiation of a new customs union), which, ironically, is precisely what the Labour party are asking for now as well. But, those who favour Soft Brexit are likely going to be disappointed because the EU itself will make it nigh on impossible for such an outcome to occur, because (unsurprisingly) they want to show that a member state that leaves the EU will lose all the benefits that come with full membership, which includes tariff-free Single Market access.

But Labour could force the issue by basically beating the government on the main decisions that will have to be passed by parliament, and perhaps even forcing a new election that could see Labour take power. The Tories have to balance the fact that their core support wants nothing less that Hard Brexit, but that their core support is not strong enough to deliver a clear majority in Parliament, and that if Labour can convince enough people that Soft Brexit is the way forward (in spite of the fact that it is practically impossible to achieve), then the Tories could be kicked out before they can deliver Hard Brexit. But, the trouble is that no matter what the British people want (which increasingly looks like Soft Brexit/a cherry-picked sweet deal/the 'cake and eat it' idea) will be met with derision and anger from the EU - in other words, no matter which way you slice it, Soft Brexit will not happen. I also don't think that No Brexit will happen - not least because there are too many people in the UK who want out, but that basically leaves us with a situation where we face Hard Brexit but possibly without a government capable of delivering it.
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In the very possible event the EU has continued and even accelerated issues maintaining cohesiveness and central control, would it not be best to go with the form of Brexit that would leave the UK aligned with those most likely to exit the EU?
 
Dotini
In the very possible event the EU has continued and even accelerated issues maintaining cohesiveness and central control, would it not be best to go with the form of Brexit that would leave the UK aligned with those most likely to exit the EU?
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The trouble is that we have a deadline to agree terms (29 March 2019) and can't twiddle our thumbs waiting for other countries to throw in with us. Were I representative of another country I'd think the sensible thing to do would be to wait until the UK has seceded so I could find out whether it was worth going ahead.
 
Touring Mars
hence why the main opposition favour 'Soft Brexit' (which involves coming out of the EU, but remaining in the Customs Union and European Single Market).
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It's worth noting that a Soft Brexit is essentially Brexit in name only and the majority of reasons people voted to leave would remain unchanged which is exactly why people opposed to leaving the EU are arguing for it so they can stay in without committing political suicide.

Talking about the people against leaving the EU, I see they've decided to drive around in this;
anti-brexit-bus.jpg


Seems the best they could do to counter the Brexit bus which had a slightly incorrect number on it (still confuses me why they didn't bother putting a more accurate number on it, I don't think £170 million per week would have had less of an impact than £350 million but there we go) is to drive around in one with an even more ridiculous number on it.
 
Touring Mars
This article does a good job of explaining some of the reasons why 'Soft Brexit' isn't going to happen...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/27/customs-union-brexit-european-union-eu-turkey

... which is a major problem when the opposition plus at least 10 Tory rebels appear to support it and could thus defeat any government moves towards 'Hard Brexit'.
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This is what happens when all the Labour and Liberals and at least 50% of the Conservatives want to stay in the EU and the other 50% want out of it no matter what. All on a non legality binding referendum with a 52-48 % split.
 
UKMikey
The trouble is that we have a deadline to agree terms (29 March 2019) and can't twiddle our thumbs waiting for other countries to throw in with us. Were I representative of another country I'd think the sensible thing to do would be to wait until the UK has seceded so I could find out whether it was worth going ahead.
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Touring Mars
This article does a good job of explaining some of the reasons why 'Soft Brexit' isn't going to happen...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/27/customs-union-brexit-european-union-eu-turkey

... which is a major problem when the opposition plus at least 10 Tory rebels appear to support it and could thus defeat any government moves towards 'Hard Brexit'.
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So if neither form of Brexit is going to happen, and neither is a cancellation/new vote on matter, then what? Thumb twiddling? What would Putin do if he were in your shoes? (egad, maybe he's already in your shorts!)
 
Dotini
What would Putin do if he were in your shoes? (egad, maybe he's already in your shorts!)
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In this scenario, Vladimir Putin (Theresa May) would push through his personal position (remaining in the EU) despite opposition from his own people (52% of the referendum votes).
 
Liquid
In this scenario, Vladimir Putin (Theresa May) would push through his personal position (remaining in the EU) despite opposition from his own people (52% of the referendum votes).
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That is the correct answer to @Dotini's question but irrelevant to reality?
 
Liquid
In this scenario, Vladimir Putin (Theresa May) would push through his personal position (remaining in the EU) despite opposition from his own people (52% of the referendum votes).
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Wrong answer.

Correct answer: Theresa May needs to interfere in some elections and cheat at curling in the Olympics.
 
Touring Mars
This article does a good job of explaining some of the reasons why 'Soft Brexit' isn't going to happen...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/27/customs-union-brexit-european-union-eu-turkey

... which is a major problem when the opposition plus at least 10 Tory rebels appear to support it and could thus defeat any government moves towards 'Hard Brexit'.
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Why do these seem like menu options...

I'll take a hot brexit please, but if that's not available is there at least a continental brexit?
 
Dotini
So if neither form of Brexit is going to happen, and neither is a cancellation/new vote on matter, then what? Thumb twiddling? What would Putin do if he were in your shoes? (egad, maybe he's already in your shorts!)
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The default if nothing is agreed is a hard Brexit.

No trade deal with the EU and straight to WTO rates.
 
The EU have published their draft proposal for Brexit and have included the idea of Northern Ireland remaining in the Single Market, the customs union and under the full jurisdiction of the ECJ. Meanwhile, the DUP (pro-UK unionists) who currently prop up the UK government are apoplectic... to say this proposal is a non-starter with them would be (as Murray Walker would say) a masterpiece of understatement.

The BBC, keen to keep their finger on the pulse, reported live from the Eire/NI border today and I noticed a rather clever and appropriate piece of vandalism... 'Please Drive Car Full', which may be a bit of a problem in future if you want to do any cross-border shopping...

2MqY2ier.jpg
 
Touring Mars
The EU have published their draft proposal for Brexit and have included the idea of Northern Ireland remaining in the Single Market, the customs union and under the full jurisdiction of the ECJ. Meanwhile, the DUP (pro-UK unionists) who currently prop up the UK government are apoplectic... to say this proposal is a non-starter with them would be (as Murray Walker would say) a masterpiece of understatement.

The BBC, keen to keep their finger on the pulse, reported live from the Eire/NI border today and I noticed a rather clever and appropriate piece of vandalism... 'Please Drive Car Full', which may be a bit of a problem in future if you want to do any cross-border shopping...

2MqY2ier.jpg
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Meanwhile, I'm childishly laughing at that for other reasons.

Also, I have to say the the woman doing the signing seems to be doing a good job on reiterating the governments plans for Brexit to the masses.
 
Being someone who lives a stone throw from the Irish border i have a fear that a hard brexit or no deal brexit is going to be a disaster, if there is going to be border checks etc. Although until its actually happened can't really say what will happen. Last time there was customs on the Irish border some local's bombed them not because they were seen as British but because it was restricting what they seen as their right to freedom of movement while going to the shop or visiting relatives.

That aside when thinking of brexit i ask myself this question, Which is the best way to survive and thrive on your own or as part of group?
 
monkeywall
Being someone who lives a stone throw from the Irish border i have a fear that a hard brexit or no deal brexit is going to be a disaster, if there is going to be border checks etc. Although until its actually happened can't really say what will happen. Last time there was customs on the Irish border some local's bombed them not because they were seen as British but because it was restricting what they seen as their right to freedom of movement while going to the shop or visiting relatives.
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From what I've seen people on both sides of the negotiation don't want a hard border of any sort, so I'd be surprised if you had to worry about that.
That aside when thinking of brexit i ask myself this question, Which is the best way to survive and thrive on your own or as part of group?
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Leaving the EU doesn't mean we will cut off all ties with Europe, we will still cooperate and trade with them so we'll never be on our own. It's more like we're distancing ourselves slightly to build more relationships with countries outside of the EU.
 
Spurgy 777
Leaving the EU doesn't mean we will cut off all ties with Europe, we will still cooperate and trade with them so we'll never be on our own. It's more like we're distancing ourselves slightly to build more relationships with countries outside of the EU.
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But it'll cost more to trade with EU countries as we'll no longer be in the EU and therefore won't benefit from the tariffs. We don't have the buying power to make EU-size trade deals with none-EU countries... how do we win?
 
TenEightyOne
But it'll cost more to trade with EU countries as we'll no longer be in the EU and therefore won't benefit from the tariffs. We don't have the buying power to make EU-size trade deals with none-EU countries... how do we win?
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By actually making trade deals, something the EU struggles with because 28 different countries have to agree on the details.
 
Spurgy 777
From what I've seen people on both sides of the negotiation don't want a hard border of any sort, so I'd be surprised if you had to worry about that.


Leaving the EU doesn't mean we will cut off all ties with Europe, we will still cooperate and trade with them so we'll never be on our own. It's more like we're distancing ourselves slightly to build more relationships with countries outside of the EU.
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Your right people 'don't want a return to the past' as it's been said and i can understand the argument that we can then negotiate better trade deals with the rest of the world a lot easier. We've got arguments from both sides saying different things will happen, i too have concerns about what might happen after brexit. It could be good, it could be bad or kinda more of the same for us all. Until it actually happens we can't say how it will turn out. Hopefully my fears and concerns are proved wrong.

One thing that should happen is that the UK government should ensure these new trade deals benefit the people as a whole and not be bullied by countries and corporations who are only thinking of the profits they can make.
 
Spurgy 777
By actually making trade deals, something the EU struggles with because 28 different countries have to agree on the details.
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It seems to me that any increased complexity of a trade deal (and I'm not sure that a vote in the EU parliament is so much more complex than a vote in a 'home' parliament) is outweighed by the benefits of greater buying/selling power.
 

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