Britain - The Official Thread

[Scaff]

What do other Londoners (and Brits) think of Carnival?



This can't go on, surely?

3 stabbings already on the "family day", 1 life threatening, 90 arrests.

Put it in parks or something.

Given the number that attend and the openly public nature of the Carnival, there appears to be a lower crime rate than in an average year at Glastonbury (I wonder what could be different about the Carnival to bias reporting)!

@Touring Mars point about overcrowding and crush risks seems to be the bigger issue.

 

[HenrySwanson]

Given the number that attend and the openly public nature of the Carnival, there appears to be a lower crime rate than in an average year at Glastonbury (I wonder what could be different about the Carnival to bias reporting)!

@Touring Mars point about overcrowding and crush risks seems to be the bigger issue.

It may be the nature of offences:



I'm unsure if Glastonbury has as many serious knife attacks per-attendee as the Carnival.

There is also this:

Do Notting Hill Carnival and Glastonbury have similar crime rates? - Full Fact

Figures which suggest that Notting Hill Carnival has a similar crime rate to Glastonbury are unreliable.

fullfact.org

But the crowd sizes have gotten stupid now and that is the reason my dad hasn't gone in years.

With two people I know having their phones nicked in the past few months and my dad having teeth knocked out from being assaulted at work by a postie I'm wondering if it's worth living and working in London anymore.

 

[Scaff]

I'm unsure if Glastonbury has as many serious knife attacks per-attendee as the Carnival.

It doesn't, but it does have as many assaults and far more drug related deaths.

There is also this:

My point wasn't that they are identical, mearly comparable in that area, but wildly different in terms of media coverage.

 

[MatskiMonk]

I'm wondering if it's worth living and working in London anymore.

I'm 45, I've never lived in a city, nevermind one of the largest cities in Europe. I've had my car stolen once, and I've been mugged once. My sister lived in South London for ~25 years, and suffered one indecent exposure. The difference between London and the rest of England and Wales is about 11 crimes per 1000 people, call it 1-2%. I'd take that risk, personally.

 

[HenrySwanson]

I'm 45, I've never lived in a city, nevermind one of the largest cities in Europe. I've had my car stolen once, and I've been mugged once. My sister lived in South London for ~25 years, and suffered one indecent exposure. The difference between London and the rest of England and Wales is about 11 crimes per 1000 people, call it 1-2%. I'd take that risk, personally.

Out of interest, what would be the threshold for you to think about moving area following a spate of crime, some violent and others with threats of violence perpetrated against people you are close with?

You're also seemingly comparing London with, the whole of England and Wales, which will naturally include other cities.

London isn't even the knife crime capital of the UK - that's West Midlands, where a family friend's grandson died by a knife only recently.

My sister's moved to High Wycombe, her and my close friend to Aylesbury, I've cut contact with someone I've known since primary school that still lives here....I'm finding fewer reasons to stay.

It doesn't, but it does have as many assaults

Is this true?

I reasoned that if we can't compare crime rates we couldn't compare subsections of crime, bar the obvious outlier of fatal/near fatal bladed weapon attacks.

I'm sure there would be similar press coverage if such a large-scale event attracted such violence in Birmingham or Cleveland, for example.

Even BBC and the Guardian reported on the girl almost dying yesterday, stabbed in front of her young child.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Out of interest, what would be the threshold for you to think about moving area following a spate of crime, some violent and others with threats of violence perpetrated against people you are close with?

Honestly can't say, ultimately I wouldn't have that many choices, but I also don't have to worry about anybody else, so in reality I'd put up with quite a bit - and just hope living in an iffy area reflected itself in lower rent.

You're also seemingly comparing London with, the whole of England and Wales, which will naturally include other cities.

You spoke of leaving London, not moving out of cities completely.

 

[Scaff]

Is this true?

I reasoned that if we can't compare crime rates we couldn't compare subsections of crime, bar the obvious outlier of fatal/near fatal bladed weapon attacks.

Based on the limited data points available, yes, but once again missing the point.

I'm sure there would be similar press coverage if such a large-scale event attracted such violence in Birmingham or Cleveland, for example.

Such violence? Given the number of attendees, it seems to be a rather low level of violence, I assume in your comparison you have, of course, also removed the normal levels that occur in the area. After all, failing to do so would not provide an accurate view of the actual violence resulting from the event, rather than the 'normal' level of crime for the area.

Even BBC and the Guardian reported on the girl almost dying yesterday, stabbed in front of her young child.

Because knife crime in London does, the UK news media is a tad London-centric.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Because knife crime in London does, the UK news media is a tad London-centric.

I can't imagine why our predominantly right leaning media would want to report more on bad stuff happening in London.

Oh.

 

[HenrySwanson]

Honestly can't say, ultimately I wouldn't have that many choices, but I also don't have to worry about anybody else, so in reality I'd put up with quite a bit - and just hope living in an iffy area reflected itself in lower rent.

Ah, to be sure, I similarly wouldn't have to worry about anyone else. But I'm getting tired of it now.

Few days ago, late evening, tonnes of cop cars come flying past me with the cops getting out, batons drawn and shouting for someone to "get down on your knees".

That was my local broadway.

It shouldn't have to be like this.

You spoke of leaving London, not moving out of cities completely.

But why would I compare it to England and Wales.

Realistically, I'd look at a specific area.

Based on the limited data points available, yes, but once again missing the point.

Such violence? Given the number of attendees, it seems to be a rather low level of violence, I assume in your comparison you have, of course, also removed the normal levels that occur in the area. After all, failing to do so would not provide an accurate view of the actual violence resulting from the event, rather than the 'normal' level of crime for the area.

As in, in absolute terms. We can talk about per capita but, like it or not, people will see that a massive amount of people descend on the area for a musical event, with one of the days marked as a "family day", and that there are many arrests for violent disorder/weapon possession among attendees.

That sells papers.

And you're hitting the nail on the head about one of the bigger problems. We have gangs in London, as with most other cities. They will be attracted to such a large event from areas outside of the normal vicinity.

This will likely create more opportunities for violence than normal.

It's worth having a quick glance at this:

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/pcc_report_-_notting_hill_carnival_safer_and_better.pdf

As it shows that the media may not be the only ones focussing on it.

Because knife crime in London does, the UK news media is a tad London-centric.

If you're having a mother nearly stabbed to death during the "family day" of your event, it's going to make the papers.

The media are biased, yes, but that is news. I do give them a little bit of the benefit of the doubt. For example, the Hull Fair has around 600-800k visitors. If there were a lot of arrests for violence and a near-fatal stabbing I'm almost positive it would make headlines. I think people can be a bit too cynical at times, even if some cynicism is warranted.

 

[Fezzik]

Labour government, Oasis on tour - what is this, the 90s?

 

[Touring Mars]

I surely can't be the only one thinking that it's a tad ambitious of Oasis to reform for a set of gigs starting in July next year, considering they not been on stage together for 15 years - they've given themselves almost a whole year to get through before they play these gigs... what are the chances that they will still be together by then?

 

[Fezzik]

Noel will be thinking of his £20 million divorce bill. That’ll get him through the year.

 

[Famine]

I surely can't be the only one thinking that it's a tad ambitious of Oasis to reform for a set of gigs starting in July next year, considering they not been on stage together for 15 years - they've given themselves almost a whole year to get through before they play these gigs... what are the chances that they will still be together by then?

They'll get through it little by little.

 

[UKMikey]

Provided they Don't Look back in Anger to their previous bust up I'm sure they'll continue to Soldier On and their legacy will Live Forever. It's Getting Better, Man!!

 

[HenrySwanson]

Physician associates make job harder, not easier, say thousands of NHS medics

BMA survey finds 55% of doctors say working with associates has increased their workload

www.theguardian.com

Anyone have experience with physician associates, or "PAs"?

 

[Famine]

[literally just a 15-minute video]

You got any context for that, or explanation for why anyone should bother clicking it?

 

[HenrySwanson]

You got any context for that, or explanation for why anyone should bother clicking it?

Follow up to this

 

[Famine]

Follow up to this

Would it have killed you to put that in the post? You could even Edit it in after the fact (ie now).

Still, at least it only took one ask for an explanation/link this time.

 

[Scaff]

As in, in absolute terms. We can talk about per capita but, like it or not, people will see that a massive amount of people descend on the area for a musical event, with one of the days marked as a "family day", and that there are many arrests for violent disorder/weapon possession among attendees.

That sells papers.

And you're hitting the nail on the head about one of the bigger problems. We have gangs in London, as with most other cities. They will be attracted to such a large event from areas outside of the normal vicinity.

This will likely create more opportunities for violence than normal.

It's worth having a quick glance at this:

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/pcc_report_-_notting_hill_carnival_safer_and_better.pdf

As it shows that the media may not be the only ones focussing on it.

A detailed reply that utterly avoids answering the question I asked.

If you're having a mother nearly stabbed to death during the "family day" of your event, it's going to make the papers.

I've not disputed that, what I've questioned is the manner and nature of the reporting, or do you assume it's all un-biased and highly factual (a clue - it's not and the least factual has a political bias).

The media are biased, yes, but that is news. I do give them a little bit of the benefit of the doubt.

Are you assuming equal bias and accuracy here?

For example, the Hull Fair has around 600-800k visitors. If there were a lot of arrests for violence and a near-fatal stabbing I'm almost positive it would make headlines. I think people can be a bit too cynical at times, even if some cynicism is warranted.

Define 'a lot'.

 

[HenrySwanson]

A detailed reply that utterly avoids answering the question I asked.

I've not disputed that, what I've questioned is the manner and nature of the reporting, or do you assume it's all un-biased and highly factual (a clue - it's not and the least factual has a political bias).

Are you assuming equal bias and accuracy here?

Define 'a lot'.

Dude, I'm sorry (again, I sometimes take a while to get what others are saying) but I don't understand how better to answer?

Perhaps this article can help?

Millions loved the Notting Hill carnival but we need less crime. As an ex-cop, I have ideas to make it better​

Millions loved the Notting Hill carnival but there was too much crime. As an ex-cop, I could make it better | Leroy Logan

There are new calls to ban the event, but with fresh thinking and official recognition of its true value, we can silence the critics, says former Met superintendent Leroy Logan

www.theguardian.com

You'll see I also gave examples of how the centre-left and right wing portrayed it

Also, which figures are you using for the violence at Glastonbury statistics?

 

[Scaff]

Dude, I'm sorry (again, I sometimes take a while to get what others are saying) but I don't understand how better to answer?

Perhaps this article can help?

Millions loved the Notting Hill carnival but we need less crime. As an ex-cop, I have ideas to make it better​

Millions loved the Notting Hill carnival but there was too much crime. As an ex-cop, I could make it better | Leroy Logan

There are new calls to ban the event, but with fresh thinking and official recognition of its true value, we can silence the critics, says former Met superintendent Leroy Logan

www.theguardian.com

You'll see I also gave examples of how the centre-left and right wing portrayed it

Also, which figures are you using for the violence at Glastonbury statistics?

It's really not difficult.

We can attribute close to 100% of the crime stats at Glastonbury to the festival, as for the other 51 weeks of the year it's literally an empty field (I think we can discount gangs of 'county-lines sheep'), Notting Hill does not spend 51 weeks of the year as a crime-free field, as such we can't attribute all of the crime recorded during the carnival to the carnival alone, yet no reporting makes this distinction.

I'm not against any improvements to make the event safer, what I am against are editorials portraying it as a crime-ridden horror event, when the evidence, given the number of attendees, doesn't support such a claim.

Oh, and the source is Avon and Somerset police data they have released.

 

[HenrySwanson]

It's really not difficult.

We can attribute close to 100% of the crime stats at Glastonbury to the festival, as for the other 51 weeks of the year it's literally an empty field (I think we can discount gangs of 'county-lines sheep'), Notting Hill does not spend 51 weeks of the year as a crime-free field, as such we can't attribute all of the crime recorded during the carnival to the carnival alone, yet no reporting makes this distinction.

Surely if we apply that logic, all the extra people in the Notting Hill area are there because of carnival and so we can attribute those crime stats to the carnival?

I think there's a flaw in that argument....

I'm not against any improvements to make the event safer, what I am against are editorials portraying it as a crime-ridden horror event, when the evidence, given the number of attendees, doesn't support such a claim.

Are you talking about articles like this:

https://archive.ph/Y5mjP

If we completely ignore voices like that we end up suppressing discussion.

Also remember, as you pointed out, Glastonbury takes place in a field. Carnival is in residential streets and residents can be averse to the weekend because of the disruption (including my ex who is in Kensal Rise)

Oh, and the source is Avon and Somerset police data they have released.

Didn't that show violent offences reported to the police but not a breakdown of the arrests, compared to the Met releasing the number of arrests but not offences reported?

 

[Scaff]

Surely if we apply that logic, all the extra people in the Notting Hill area are there because of carnival and so we can attribute those crime stats to the carnival?

I think there's a flaw in that argument....

It's only a flaw if every resident of Notting Hill moves out for the weekend, or are you suggesting that Notting Hill has a base level of zero crime?

There's zero flaws to my point at all, it basic statistical analysis, if you don't account for the base level of crime then you can't state the Carnival causes it all.

Let me make this simple, if the base level in an area is 10 crimes a day, and during a one day event 20 crimes occur, then how many crimes are a result of the event?

Are you talking about articles like this:

https://archive.ph/Y5mjP

If we completely ignore voices like that we end up suppressing discussion.

Link doesn't work

Also remember, as you pointed out, Glastonbury takes place in a field. Carnival is in residential streets and residents can be averse to the weekend because of the disruption (including my ex who is in Kensal Rise)

Indeed some do, other embrace it, the exact same is true in regard to the residents of Pilton.

Didn't that show violent offences reported to the police but not a breakdown of the arrests, compared to the Met releasing the number of arrests but not offences reported?

It covers incidents reported and arrests, incidents are fully broken down, arrests broken down into broad summaries.

 

[HenrySwanson]

It's only a flaw if every resident of Notting Hill moves out for the weekend, or are you suggesting that Notting Hill has a base level of zero crime?

There's zero flaws to my point at all, it basic statistical analysis, if you don't account for the base level of crime then you can't state the Carnival causes it all.

Let me make this simple, if the base level in an area is 10 crimes a day, and during a one day event 20 crimes occur, then how many crimes are a result of the event?

Which was my point:

Using that logic, every single crime above the base amount is attributable to the carnival is it not? Taking stabbings only, there were 8 across the weekend with one almost fatal and 2 others resulting in critical injury. If we found a base amount of stabbing incidents for that section of Notting Hill per day and subtracted it from the average total over that weekend, those stabbings would be attributable to Carnival....

Link doesn't work

Oh, it's the Sarah Vine article calling for it to be banned in the Mail.

It covers incidents reported and arrests, incidents are fully broken down, arrests broken down into broad summaries.

Then we can't really compare, can we?

 

[Scaff]

Which was my point:

Using that logic, every single crime above the base amount is attributable to the carnival is it not? Taking stabbings only, there were 8 across the weekend with one almost fatal and 2 others resulting in critical injury. If we found a base amount of stabbing incidents for that section of Notting Hill per day and subtracted it from the average total over that weekend, those stabbings would be attributable to Carnival....

Using that logic Notting Hill has zero stabbings outside of the Carnival, again, not how statistics work.

Oh, it's the Sarah Vine article calling for it to be banned in the Mail.

Then nothing of value was lost in me not being able to view it.

Then we can't really compare, can we?

We can, we just have to acknowledge limitations in the comparison.

 

[Touring Mars]

 

[AEKara38]

We're there any?

 

[MatskiMonk]

We're there any?

 

[HenrySwanson]

‘Like throwing myself at a wall’: UK graduates struggle in ‘insane’ job market

‘Hostile and impersonal’ process to find first job after university leads many to work for minimum wage

www.theguardian.com

The job market is so insane right now. I’ve got work experience and internships from the UK, Paris and Hong Kong. I’ve taken courses, networked and am working in an admin job to try to get more skills, after no luck with applications.”

Having graduated from the University of Oxford with a first class BA in English and French last year, Emma*, a 23-year-old from London, said she has been on the hunt for a graduate job in publishing and adjacent industries since. She is now sending out five applications a week, alongside a full-time job, and has so far secured just four interviews and an offer of a minimum wage internship – which was retracted.

This coincides with a lot of unis struggling financially, with Phillipson warning them that they're expected to sort out their own mess without seeking help from the government.

 

[HenrySwanson]