Certain Countries and States to ban the sale of gas powered cars by 2050

[Grayfox]

Well in 35 years do you really think petrol cars will be sold?
We are starting to see electric cars with 150km range which is good for those who work close to where they live.
People keep comparing petrol tanks that easily hold 50liters which can give you 500km+ these days.

An electric car will be charged daily after you come home from work so it is ready the next day.
Some places are now getting charging stations so you can charge at your work place.

Look at china at the moment as well as hong kong they have a huge pollution problem to such a point that even wearing masks is not helping.

 

[Northstar]

I have to wonder if the powers that be ever think about everything involved in plans like this and what would be required to do it in such a short period of time.

I think the biggest obstacle would be the lack of proper infrastructure to handle the load that would result from that many cars. There is also the issue of charging stations. Sure people that own houses and work in one spot would be just fine. But people like me that live in an apartment and occasionally has to drive my personal vehicle to an unfinished house would have issues keeping it charged.

 

[catamount39]

I have to wonder if the powers that be ever think about everything involved in plans like this and what would be required to do it in such a short period of time.

I think the biggest obstacle would be the lack of proper infrastructure to handle the load that would result from that many cars. There is also the issue of charging stations. Sure people that own houses and work in one spot would be just fine. But people like me that live in an apartment and occasionally has to drive my personal vehicle to an unfinished house would have issues keeping it charged.

Everyone's also over looking the fact that electric cars **** range and difficulty heating in the winter is not brilliant for a place comparable to say...the Northwest Territories. Besides, 50% of the vehicles here are pick-up's and SUV's.

 

[Northstar]

Besides, 50% of the vehicles here are pick-up's and SUV's.

That's another thing, if you think people in the U.S. are crazy about guns, try taking their pick-up away and you'll really see crazy.

 

[Brutaka]

In America, I wonder if they'll allow you to go to a state without this law, buy a gasoline car there and then bring it back to your state.

 

[Northstar]

In America, I wonder if they'll allow you to go to a state without this law, buy a gasoline car there and then bring it back to your state.

In California the car needs to meet their requirements in order for it to be registered there, where it was sold doesn't matter. I'm not sure if the other states that have adopted their regulations also have this in their laws.

 

[homeforsummer]

I think the biggest obstacle would be the lack of proper infrastructure to handle the load that would result from that many cars.

Will it still be an obstacle in 34-ish years time? Will any of the points being discussed be an issue by then? Will you still be living in an apartment with no charging access, or do you hope that in 34 years you'll have a place with a garage etc?

 

[catamount39]

Will it still be an obstacle in 34-ish years time? Will any of the points being discussed be an issue by then? Will you still be living in an apartment with no charging access, or do you hope that in 34 years you'll have a place with a garage etc?

I'll be living in the San Juan mountains of Colorado if things work out right.

That aside. Vermont is pick up truck territory because there are people who use them for legitimate reasons...and because the culture here is: "Git a truck son!". *50/50 split however, makes for an annoying rivalry at times*

 

[Northstar]

Will you still be living in an apartment with no charging access, or do you hope that in 34 years you'll have a place with a garage etc?

I hope to have a house in the not to distant future, but other people will still be living in apartments and there will still be job sites without power.

 

[catamount39]

Should I mention that Vermont didn't fully get ELECTRICITY until the 60's? There are many parts of the United States that, if not for the leakage of modern assets and the blessing f the internet, you wouldn't know if you were in 1959 or 2015. This isn't Europe where everything is up to date.

 

[Crash]

In America, I wonder if they'll allow you to go to a state without this law, buy a gasoline car there and then bring it back to your state.

In California the car needs to meet their requirements in order for it to be registered there, where it was sold doesn't matter. I'm not sure if the other states that have adopted their regulations also have this in their laws.

All vehicle registrations require that the car meet Federal and local State regulations of which the vehicle will be registered to. There are lot of ways in which this law can be written. They can write it so that gasoline cars can't be sold in the state but legal to own and drive; they can write it so that no new gas cars can be registered in that state but old gas cars are grandfathered in. They can write it so that no new gas cars can be registered and that current gas cars will not have their registration renewed (i.e. phasing gas cars out). They can write the law so that it just taxes gas cars at a crazy high rate. It really depends on how the law is passed, though I would imagine that it would be at the preventing-registration level.

For residents that want to register a gas car in a state that has banned gas cars, they'll have to follow whatever the local law at that time is. However, the state cannot ban visitors from driving their gas car into that state so long as that car legally maintains valid out-of-state registration unless there's a Federal law that empowers them to do so.

 

[homeforsummer]

I hope to have a house in the not to distant future, but other people will still be living in apartments and there will still be job sites without power.

Possibly so - though again, we're taking about over three decades of progress and societal change by that point. Will electric cars still be running around with 80-odd miles of range by then? Probably not. Unless they're dedicated car sharing vehicles, used by the sort of people who live in apartments in cities and don't actually need a car for any of their daily engagements. Even those who don't may not have a problem - inductive charging might be in full swing by 2050, allowing people parked out on the street to charge there instead.

Naturally I'm speculating - but I think it's realistic speculation.

Three and a half decades ago it was 1980. Cars from that year are pretty much considered classics today. The average car in the US in 1980 got to 60mph in 13 seconds. A V8 Mustang or Camaro had about 120bhp. You'd probably not want to spend too long in a confined space with a car built in 1980, and you certainly wouldn't want to get into an accident in one.

My point: 35 years is a hell of a long time. I'll be 65 years old. It's quite a bit more than half my current life away. I suspect the world might have moved on a bit by then. If we've not buggered things up by then.

Should I mention that Vermont didn't fully get ELECTRICITY until the 60's? There are many parts of the United States that, if not for the leakage of modern assets and the blessing f the internet, you wouldn't know if you were in 1959 or 2015. This isn't Europe where everything is up to date.

I'm not going to get into a "who lives in a more backwards place" debate, but not all of Europe is cutting-edge. I can barely get 3G reception in my apartment in middle-England suburbia, yet I got full 4G in the middle of the Swiss Alps. And we still can't cope in the UK when there's an inch of snow on the ground.

My point is that I'd expect even Vermont to be vaguely capable of sustaining electric transportation by 2050.

 

[0ldman279]

I have a visit with a specialist 4 times a year at 295 miles each way. Electric cars won't work for that. Hybrid would do fine.

I also work as a rural Internet service provider, come from a family that builds our own stuff and farms. Electric cars won't work for that either.

Electricity is fine for expected short trips, commuters, kids to school, go to work, pick kids up, hit the store and go home. That is about the extent of their range.

Throw a 1000lb + load in a truck and see how that 150 mile range does.

What about 18 wheelers, dump trucks, bulldozers, tractors, etc? We'll never get those reliably converted to electric. Their loads are not fixed, sometimes they cruise, more often than not the load is quite extreme.

How about getting the tractors to the construction site?

The whole thing is ridiculous. We may move away from gasoline, but electric, in anything resembling it's current form, simply cannot do the job.

It would require some kind of on board power generation that consumes some sort of fuel. At that point you have the loss due to conversion and we're back where we started it.

 

[0ldman279]

"The real benefit though is not choking directly on fumes in towns or busy roads filled with inhabitants. But yea generally they talk about electric as if its completely clean"

Comparing to China isn't really accurate though.
They don't even have basic emissions regulations. I honestly wonder if they're trying to keep the population under control.

 

[Kent]

As it stands, I don't think charging a battery every time the car is parked will help the situation. Currently, most batteries on the market do not respond well we constant charging, or charging when not fully depleted. Usually said practices result in reduced battery life and hold time for the charge itself.

Of course, that's only regarding batteries in general, I'm sure car batteries are far more advanced and the above conditions do not necessarily apply.
Then again... ?

Regarding states actually banning the sale of gas powered vehicles...

I say bring it on because I know LA will never do that and being one of the states that still sells gas powered cars will be a great help to our state's economy.

 

[Jubby]

As it stands, I don't think charging a battery every time the car is parked will help the situation. Currently, most batteries on the market do not respond well we constant charging, or charging when not fully depleted. Usually said practices result in reduced battery life and hold time for the charge itself.

No ban should be considered until vehicles have been sold for 10-15 years where this is not necessary. (Talking US numbers here...) If we figure 18.5 miles per gasoline tank with 25 mpg, (smaller tanks usually are compensated with higher mpg) we get about 400-500 mpg per vehicle without a charge (fill up). For a lot of people that's a week's worth of driving (average 30 minute commute in the US, plus weekend trips).

Once we get past nightly charging and everyone who could have an EV, then I'd be more open to this.

 

[Kent]

No ban should be considered until vehicles have been sold for 10-15 years where this is not necessary. (Talking US numbers here...) If we figure 18.5 miles per gasoline tank with 25 mpg, (smaller tanks usually are compensated with higher mpg) we get about 400-500 mpg per vehicle without a charge (fill up). For a lot of people that's a week's worth of driving (average 30 minute commute in the US, plus weekend trips).

Once we get past nightly charging and everyone who could have an EV, then I'd be more open to this.

I'm right there with you but at the same time I can't change the way other states will vote and I'm sure about what Louisiana would do facing a situation like this- sell gasoline powered cars to everyone else.

 

[homeforsummer]

I have a visit with a specialist 4 times a year at 295 miles each way. Electric cars won't work for that. Hybrid would do fine.

I also work as a rural Internet service provider, come from a family that builds our own stuff and farms. Electric cars won't work for that either.

Electricity is fine for expected short trips, commuters, kids to school, go to work, pick kids up, hit the store and go home. That is about the extent of their range.

Throw a 1000lb + load in a truck and see how that 150 mile range does.

What about 18 wheelers, dump trucks, bulldozers, tractors, etc? We'll never get those reliably converted to electric. Their loads are not fixed, sometimes they cruise, more often than not the load is quite extreme.

How about getting the tractors to the construction site?

The whole thing is ridiculous. We may move away from gasoline, but electric, in anything resembling it's current form, simply cannot do the job.

It would require some kind of on board power generation that consumes some sort of fuel. At that point you have the loss due to conversion and we're back where we started it.

There are lots of good points there, but most of them are also of limited relevance in a transitional market.

Why, for instance, should anyone care that electric vehicles are not yet suitable for hauling heavy loads in pickup trucks? Nobody is trying to sell an electric pickup because their limitations are well understood - it's a non-problem, just as it is with 18-wheelers or the minority of people who do journeys like your ~600 mile round trip four times a year.

Though in that last scenario, I'm sure electric car ownership wouldn't be completely out of the question - renting a vehicle capable of doing such a distance four times a year probably wouldn't be much of a hardship, and would be paid for many times over by any fuel savings driving an EV for the 350+ days you're not doing 295 miles.

As it stands, I don't think charging a battery every time the car is parked will help the situation. Currently, most batteries on the market do not respond well we constant charging, or charging when not fully depleted. Usually said practices result in reduced battery life and hold time for the charge itself.

Of course, that's only regarding batteries in general, I'm sure car batteries are far more advanced and the above conditions do not necessarily apply.

Indeed they don't.

I'm not actually sure they apply in domestic products any more either - charging from empty to full used to be much more important with nickel-based batteries (which had a "memory" - if you kept charging them to 80% the battery would consider that the new "full", reducing its energy capacity) but lithium batteries are quite different.

You'll damage a lithium battery more by draining it completely or charging it to its maximum constantly (the latter creates heat, which can damage a battery's cells) than you will by topping it up here and there.

 

[0ldman279]

Lithium batteries tend to have a finite number of charge/discharge cycles as well.

I've got NiCad batteries from my childhood (I'm 36) that *just* failed a couple of years ago. We're talking a NiCad battery that was old enough to vote, some were old enough to drink, still worked fine.

Lithium based batteries tend to have around 400 cycles per cell.

Bottom line, my point above is that electric only isn't even close to ready for prime time. I don't think any of them have the range needed to do my job, much less any trips I go on and I don't get out that much these days.

Gas/electric hybrid, I've actually looked at those. The replacement costs for the battery suck, and most of them look like some "Look at me, I'm strange and new" look about them. The Focus (or Fusion?) hybrid is okay, the Volt looks alright, none of them can carry my family on a trip with luggage.

They're decent little commuter cars, but if we have to drive around in town we'll likely have to charge it before we go home. They may work for some people, they're far from a horrible idea, but they're not even remotely close to being a primary or only car.

Edit: re:trucks
If combustable fuel becomes illegal, what happens to the work vehicles? They get an exception?
Some of the biggest dump trucks in the world run on 4 massive electric motors, all powered by a massive diesel generator.

 

[homeforsummer]

Lithium batteries tend to have a finite number of charge/discharge cycles as well.

I've got NiCad batteries from my childhood (I'm 36) that *just* failed a couple of years ago. We're talking a NiCad battery that was old enough to vote, some were old enough to drink, still worked fine.

Lithium based batteries tend to have around 400 cycles per cell.

Once again, you're making valid points but seemingly forgetting that other people exist.

For a start, I believe lithium batteries in automotive applications can do far more than 400 cycles per cell. Maybe a cell phone or electric toothbrush is less, but full 0-100% cycles in say, a Nissan Leaf, seems to be into the thousands - 1000 minimum, but potentially more, since very few owners do a full 0-100% charge (during which more heat is generated, which reduces battery life). For owners charging between say, 20% and 80%, which is more realistic, consensus seems to be 3000 or more cycles.

And that isn't until the battery dies - that's down to 70% capacity, which Nissan suggests takes around 10 years. The very oldest Leafs are currently about 5 years old, so most will have plenty of life left in them.

Bottom line, my point above is that electric only isn't even close to ready for prime time.

...for you.

I don't think any of them have the range needed to do my job, much less any trips I go on and I don't get out that much these days.

...which is perfectly fine. If you regularly do more than say, 80 miles a day, then an electric vehicle probably isn't suitable.

The vast majority of people don't get anywhere near that figure of course, and the vast majority of those never do long enough journeys for it to be a problem. Two years ago, an EV wouldn't have even slightly been useful for me, since nearly every journey I did was 100 miles or more. Today, even a fairly basic electric car would comfortably cover my commute (a 15-mile round trip each day) and most of my airport runs (the furthest of the two I use most often is about 60 miles away).

Gas/electric hybrid, I've actually looked at those. The replacement costs for the battery suck,

I own a gas/electric hybrid. It's 15 years old and is only just starting to show signs of the battery needing replacing, at about 130k miles. A colleague with the same sort of car managed 175k in his before replacing the battery. Other sorts of hybrids are doing 300k or more on the same battery (in pretty heavy use...)

The replacement costs do indeed suck (it's about $2800 to replace mine), but it's not like you need to replace them frequently... unless you keep your cars more than 15 years at a time. And since I saved about half the battery replacement cost in fuel in a single year, you could consider it more of a delayed fuel purchase than a cost. Unfortunately, I've not owned mine long enough for it to be like that, but a family car used every day for five years would probably be different. After ten you'd have saved the replacement cost several times over... and realistically, by ten years of ownership you'd probably be looking at another car anyway, so who really cares?

and most of them look like some "Look at me, I'm strange and new" look about them. The Focus (or Fusion?) hybrid is okay, the Volt looks alright, none of them can carry my family on a trip with luggage.

I can't comment on your family and baggage needs (though I do have to wonder what you're carrying to not be able to squeeze luggage into a Fusion) but are hybrids really "look at me!" any more?

If you ignore the fact the Prius has a distinctive shape, which has been replicated to some degree with the Honda Insight and the new Hyundai Ioniq, hybrids look pretty much like normal cars. There's a Fusion, an Accord, a Sonata, crossovers like the RAV4, Lexus NX and RX... and umpteen other cars that differ little from the regular cars they're based on apart from the badge and what's under the hood.

It sounds less like you're choosing to avoid them for the reality of ownership and more like you're simply unwilling to explore what's available.

but they're not even remotely close to being a primary or only car.

The 8 million people who've bought Toyota hybrids since 1997, and the several million who've bought hybrids from other marques in that time, would probably disagree.

 

[niky]

@homeforsummer covered it pretty well, but I'd like to remark... the typical 1,000 to 2,000 cycle battery life to 80% that is talked about covers full charge-discharge cycles. Partial discharge-charge cycles contribute less to shortening of the battery life.

In the case of the last EV I drove, which had a 250-300 km range per charge, those cycles amounted to about 400,000 kilometers before the battery lost significant capacity.... and as we've seen with other big battery packs, when the pack gets down to the capacity range where it's insufficient for vehicle use, it can still be used for power storage for renewable installations. Toyota buys back old Prius batteries for use in home/office emergency power storage.

The issue with stated battery "life" is similar to that of solar cells... which have a guarantee of between 25-35 years... but that's 25-35 at 80% capacity. You can run them to 50 years or more... or until they don't produce enough electricity to make it worth keeping them, then replace them with newer, more efficient ones.

 

[Joey D]

Edit: re:trucks
If combustable fuel becomes illegal, what happens to the work vehicles? They get an exception?
Some of the biggest dump trucks in the world run on 4 massive electric motors, all powered by a massive diesel generator.

Technology advances fairly rapidly. Electric cars are just getting to the point now where they can more or less operate like a ICE vehicle, there's no reason not to think that in 10-15 years (or less) there will be a viable electric work vehicle option. There are also other means that could generate power in say something like a semi-truck, between solar panels and even a small hydrogen fuel cell, an electric truck could easily work. Electric motors in semis could also be really advantageous considering their torque curve is more or less instant, which would make moving a heavy load easier.

From your posts you seem to be thinking that the electric vehicle industry is stagnant or more of a niche market, but I don't believe that's the case at all, it's rapidly growing at a phenomenal rate.

 

[mustafur]

Making a cost effective electric motorcycle that can appeal to the Developing world will do the most to actually having an effect on a world wide scale.

As well as the entry level car market.

These are the markets that need it the most as they suffer most from Pollution and smog from outdated machinery that are used in significant numbers.

 

[Danoff]

Stupidity at its finest.

I love the notion that anyone knows the answer to any of these questions well enough to just shut off a whole branch of possible solutions. Let's say, for a moment, that you believe that emissions are a problem and that a good solution to the problem is to reduce emissions from passenger vehicles. Even taking that as a given, who on earth knows the form of the solution well enough to preclude that gasoline power can have any part in it?

Reduce fuel consumption you say? Fine, tax gasoline (and the tax revenues MUST be used for environmental cleanup). Call it fee-for-service, you want to create these emissions by burning a gallon of gas? We'll use the tax money to offset those emissions. That's a far more direct signal to send to the market than "you can't use gasoline in new cars" - which sends a signal that used cars should be worth more because they can continue to burn gasoline.

The reason politicians don't choose more intelligent routes (like a gas tax) over less intelligent routes (like banning gas powered cars) is because it helps people emotionally cope with having to deal with the change. "Well if I can't afford gas, I don't want someone who can afford gas to be able to continue to pollute" is the sentiment. People have an easier time coping with these changes if they know everyone has to. Absurd.

What if the absolute best solution anyone can come up with is a fuel-efficient minivan carpooling to work? We've eliminated that option because we can't let intelligence override emotions.

 

[Joey D]

I don't think we need to worry about politicians banning gas powered vehicles, the market will more or less force people to buy alternative energy vehicles when gas prices get to the point where it no longer makes financial sense. If gas was say $10- $15 a gallon, people would give up their gas powered vehicles and switch to something else that's way more affordable.

 

[niky]

With the current trend in gas prices, people will still switch back to gas guzzling monstrosities when they can. Which is why US production is shifting away from small cars and back to crossovers, SUVs and... most importantly... big trucks... and the eco-cars Obama wanted are shifting production to Mexico and other places.

Without a gas tax incentive, there is no incentive to shift. Many new-car buyers are rather short-sighted, and don't plan for the gas price spike we know is coming when the current glut runs its course or when either Saudi Arabia or Iran get sick of dancing around and starts bombing the other.

Making a cost effective electric motorcycle that can appeal to the Developing world will do the most to actually having an effect on a world wide scale.

As well as the entry level car market.

These are the markets that need it the most as they suffer most from Pollution and smog from outdated machinery that are used in significant numbers.

We already have them. About $500, only have a range of around 20-30 miles and a top speed just high enough to outrun a running human... downhill.

But $500. A lot of people willing to pony up that much for the convenience of not having to put gas into a scooter. Personally, I'd rather pedal myself.

I've actually ridden a real electric motorcycle, though... one with about the same power as a good 250cc, and more torque to boot. Lovely thing to ride (though a bit heavy). I could see myself buying something like that, but the price is still a good ways over a comparable gasoline one... and given motorcycles don't cost that much in the first place, any electric bike capable of replacing a full-sized one (rather than electric mopeds and bicycle conversions) will have an uphill climb in terms of market acceptance.

 

[Omnis]

Is anyone so arrogant as to really think they know what the world will be like in 2050? Maybe every car will have its own little nuclear reactor* for cheap and practically limitless energy. Who knows.


*That explodes if you accidentally throw a grenade too close to it.

 

[Prenny]

It'll be approximately 34 years from now, i will be 50 Years Old, good thing is i will have enough time to get the car of my dreams but unfortunately i'm afraid i'll have to destroy it when 2050 Arrives.

I Know i shouldn't worry about it but, i'm afraid that the country i live will also ban gas powered cars in 2050.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

It'll be approximately 44 years from now, i will be 50 Years Old, good thing is i will have enough time to get the car of my dreams but unfortunately i'm afraid i'll have to destroy it when 2050 Arrives.

I Know i shouldn't worry about it but, i'm afraid that the country i live will also ban gas powered cars in 2050.

Something doesn't add up...either you're six years old. Or you think it's 2006.

 

[05XR8]

My '71 Cooper with have a hover conversion by then.