Derren Brown Predicts Lottery Numbers

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Mark T

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Well, last night on Channel 4 in the UK the famous illusionist Derren Brown attempted to predict six correct lottery numbers from the official UK lottery run by Camelot.

The odds of winning the lottery are around 14 million to 1 (I think).



Now, obviously I don't believe that Derren Brown correctly guessed all six numbers but I am intrigued as to how he accomplished the illusion.

My initial thoughts are:

1) The balls that held his prediction could have been blank and have then been changed remotely via a screen integrated into the balls. Someone also mentioned that the technology is there to have text appear on a flat surface using magnets to manipulate magnetic ink on the ball.

2) Camera trickery could have been involved, maybe a freeze frame is overlaid over the existing left hand side of the screen while the balls are changed, then the imaged is changed back to the live show when Derren Brown walks over. Not really Brown's style but a possibility.

3) The balls could have been coated in a substance which reacts to a projection of light imprinting any required symbols on the ball

I'm hoping that it's good old fashioned sleight of hand or some other cunning trickery. Using camera tricks or special effects for magic/illusion is pretty lame. Much prefer to see some skillful manipulation.

Would love to hear other peoples thoughts on this. Brown is apparently going to reveal the secret tomorrow night on Channel 4, although I think he will insist that he studied the lotto numbers as suggested at the start of the video.
 
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I reckon it's number 2...

There is about 25 seconds between the last number coming out and the point where he walks over to the balls - that gives him a pretty big window into which the balls could have been switched. If you look very closely at the balls at any time before the switch is made, they are pretty much dead even. However, by the time he goes over to them to reveal the numbers, the ball on the left (on the right when he spins the stand) is slightly higher.

If you study the 25 seconds between the last number dropping and the reveal, there are a few odd frames that suggest that the footage has been spliced between live and prerecorded for that half of the screen....
 
I dunno... the cameraman is holding a handheld, nonstabilised camera and you can see everything moving all the time...

However, the trick with Derren Brown is that everything depends upon your frame of reference.

He did a show on statistical odds last year. He showed himself flipped a coin to heads ten times in a row which is at odds of over a thousand to one. He then showed the 6 hours of film preceding it where he'd been flipping a coin all that time - the point being that with a large enough sample size, a chain of 10 successive heads was pretty much a guarantee. Indeed any sequence of 10 coin tosses is over a thousand to one...

He then moved on to horse racing - sending 5 successive winning tips from 6 horse races to a single person over 6 weeks. That person was utterly convinced he had an unbeatable system and bet all the winnings on a 6th race - not realising that they were one of 6 people who'd been sent a tip for that 6 horse race and every preceding one. The original sample size was 46,656, divided into 6 and each group was given one tip for a six horse race. The losing 5 groups were discarded and the winning group was divided into 6, with each group given one tip for a six horse race - and so on down to the 6 people remaining for the 6th 6 horse race. None knew about the others, so they thought the tipster had an unbeatable system because, from their point of view, they were 5 from 5...


Ultimately, Derren won't reveal how to guess the lottery accurately on Friday. He'll reveal how he made you think he did.
 
Yeah I also watched this, I switched the TV back over to BBC1 to see if everything was in sync. I was under the impression he was going to say each number just before they came out but once he said in the intro he would reveal them after they were annouced it was slightly dissapointing.

Im sure it was some camera trickery or something, the balls could have easily been switched or could have some clever system to burn the numbers into the balls from the inside out. If he truely predicted it then why didnt he buy a ticket! Oh well I guess we will know in the reveal show.

Robin.
 
Showing us the numbers before the draw was made would have been much more impressive...
 
Touring Mars
I reckon it's number 2...

There is about 25 seconds between the last number coming out and the point where he walks over to the balls - that gives him a pretty big window into which the balls could have been switched. If you look very closely at the balls at any time before the switch is made, they are pretty much dead even. However, by the time he goes over to them to reveal the numbers, the ball on the left (on the right when he spins the stand) is slightly higher.
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This was also posted on the Channel 4 website but when I watch it I can't really notice the height difference. The other thing about the whole video splicing thing is that the floor is quite shiny and you cannot see any reflections, although I guess this would be quite easy to get around.

Famine


However, the trick with Derren Brown is that everything depends upon your frame of reference.
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At the start of the video there is a brief glance of the set from another camera man. Hopefully they will show the footage from that angle tomorrow night to prove that it wasn't camera trickery.

Robin.
Im sure it was some camera trickery or something, the balls could have easily been switched or could have some clever system to burn the numbers into the balls from the inside out. If he truely predicted it then why didnt he buy a ticket! Oh well I guess we will know in the reveal show.

Robin.
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He definitely missed out as the amount rolled over for this week.
 
"Why didnt he buy a ticket"
I think (Im not sure about it though) he has been banned from the lottery, betting and Las Vegas Casinos. He has plenty money anyway!
And, he said he couldnt show his numbers first because of somethng to do with the BBC
I cannot wait till Friday though :)
 
Aldo001
"Why didnt he buy a ticket"
I think (Im not sure about it though) he has been banned from the lottery, betting and Las Vegas Casinos. He has plenty money anyway!
And, he said he couldnt show his numbers first because of somethng to do with the BBC
I cannot wait till Friday though :)
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Good question. He said that the BBC wouldn't allow him to buy a ticket, which is crap because he's in the same situation as any lottery player - he's guessing numbers to win. He also said that he wasn't allowed to show his numbers before the draw took place because the BBC had the official rights to do so. Fair point but he's not actually performing the real lotto draw, just showing his prediction.

The obvious reason behind all these excuses is the fact that he obviously doesn't know the numbers before the draw, hence the reason why his balls were facing the other way (ooh err). The lottery also closes 15 minutes before the draw takes place so he could have shown the numbers without thousands using his predicted numbers.

We shall (hopefully) have some more answers tomorrow.
 
I really like Derren Brown. In one show he did several 'cold readings' and proved that it was nothing psychich or supernatural, but statistics at work. For that alone, he has my respect. 👍
 
Derren Brown.... :drool:

Yeah, ok. I know he's gay but a girl can dream!! *runs from Famine*

I love Derren Brown. I think he's amazing at what he does. Annoyingly I had to sell tickets to two shows I was due to go to a couple of years ago but I will go and see him one day...
 
Mark T
Good question. I couldnt be bothred to quote someones post that said he should have bought a ticket :lol He said that the BBC wouldn't allow him to buy a ticket, which is crap because he's in the same situation as any lottery player - he's guessing numbers to win Agreed. He also said that he wasn't allowed to show his numbers before the draw took place because the BBC had the official rights to do so. Fair point but he's not actually performing the real lotto draw, just showing his prediction.Thats what I was thinking, but he obviously thought that they would be correct (if he did actually predit them, so if that was the case then I can kind of see where they are coming from

The obvious reason behind all these excuses is the fact that he obviously doesn't know the numbers before the draw, hence the reason why his balls were facing the other way (ooh err) haha, its not ovious to be perfectly honest. The lottery also closes 15 minutes before the draw takes place so he could have shown the numbers without thousands using his predicted numbers. Ahh I didt know that. That puts doubts in my mind now

We shall (hopefully) have some more answers tomorrow. Indeed
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I really like Derren Brown as well. He is a genius. You have to give him that even if you don't believe in any of the stuff he does :lol:
 
There are already various videos appearing showing slow motion shots of the balls (ooh hello!) where you can see the ball on the left 'rising' slightly, seemingly as the splice takes place.

I like to think that it was something a bit more mysterious than that though.

The 'stuck to my sofa' one sounds interesting, he's apparently going to make loads of people watching at home stick to their chairs and not be able to move. I'm going to watch it lying down. Take THAT, Derren!
 
Moglet
There are already various videos appearing showing slow motion shots of the balls (ooh hello!) where you can see the ball on the left 'rising' slightly, seemingly as the splice takes place.
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I just looked at that video on Youtube and I'm not convinced that's the explanation. I'm really hoping it isn't anyway.
 
Mark T
The odds of winning the lottery are around 14 million to 1 (I think).
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those are great odds compared to the Power ball lottery here in the U.S. the odds are 195,249,054 to 1 for the jackpot, their website also says the overall odds of winning a prize is 1 in 35.11, their are 8 other winning number combination much less then the starting jackpot

http://www.palottery.state.pa.us/payouts.aspx?id=450
 
Mark T
I just looked at that video on Youtube and I'm not convinced that's the explanation. I'm really hoping it isn't anyway.
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It seems a bit too obvious for Derren Brown to do something like that, I'm sure it'll be something we'll all kick ourselves over when he reveals it tomorrow.
 
He said he had 'a system' and he had 'lotto numbers all over his house' and he also said 'you might want to try it' so if it was a camera trick its very disappointing.
 
There was a teaser advert just on on channel 4 for the reveal show tomorrow night and just at the end of the advert Derren held up a snow flake... I wonder what it means??
 
Sorry I dont have one, its not anywhere on the net. Its like one of these xmas decoration silver snow flakes.
 
:lol: Sorry, I meant that the snowflake might represent "frozen" or the use of "freeze framing" i.e. while they were switching the balls over...
 
Touring Mars
:lol: Sorry, I meant that the snowflake might represent "frozen" or the use of "freeze framing" i.e. while they were switching the balls over...
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I thought you meant what it looked like from your wording! :lol: silly me! :sly: He had a grin on his face when he held it up...

Yeah it could possibly be that they had a freeze frame and Derren stood still and resumed the filming but even if that was true someone would have had to put those balls on the rack bloody quick!

Robin.
 
Put it this way, if he has resorted to camera tricks then he will have lost a very devoted fan :(
 
With the technology that we have today magicians could pull off pretty much any trick with the right planning. I've always believed that Derren Brown was much more cunning. I think he may have anticipated the fact that people will think it is camera trickery, hence the inclusion of a second camera filming from a different angle.
 
Touring Mars
He had his back turned to the camera for most of the trick, so....
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Ooh.jpg
 
It seems the most likely solution now, but we'll see what hes got up his sleeve.

The lighting was placed to he would create no shadow thus making it easier, there was no audience and he stayed well away from the 'split'. I also believe he could have revealed his prediction before the draw but again maybe that was to 'build suspense' or do the split screen trick.

Also at first he says there are two cameras and the 2nd we see once in the corner of the room. I think this camera and angle holds the key.

Im fascinated by the whole 'events'.

 
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