VISUAL ELEMENT
I'd totally forgotten about the wet tracks in GT3 and GT4.
The SSR5 wet in GT3 was time-trial only, if I remember correctly. Anyway, it looked superb, but there was no precipitation, and I assume (can't remember) the grip level was constant over the entire track.
In GT4 we got a series of "special conditions" races at Tsukuba where you raced against one opponent. Again no precipitation, and I don't recall a difference in grip, although I may have been convinced of it at the time (this was probably due to my inconsistent driving style and eagerness to blame the game...)
So, the visual element has been working for some time, but has obviously incurred quite a performance penalty on the old hardware. The "shaders" etc. will need recompiling / re-optimising / re-writing for the new hardware, but it's essentially done.
What's missing is precipitation, something that is very hard to do convincingly without faking it with a lot of fogging (wait, that's all it is, right? Heavy, falling fog

)
PHYSICAL ELEMENT (a hypothetical rambling...)
Then of course, the modeling of the physical aspect on the track surface, or rather, how it affects the
handling. I can see a dynamic, but global, grip level being fairly easy to implement. Pooling at certain points also fairly easy (though how these change with time is a bit harder).
Dynamic drying due to vehicles is one hell of a task to get right. It's the physical displacement of the water and the heating from the tyres own heat plus the friction on the surface (assuming the water is at the same temperature as the track -

- gets ever-more complicated) that is the real challenge and, arguably, where the meat of the convincingness of the effect will be decided, so it needs to be right.
You'd essentially have to divide the surface of the track up into elements and solve each patch every frame for water incident from the rainfall, plus displacement from neighbouring elements (forced and under gravity) and likewise leaving itself. This gives an idea of "water-level" in the element.
Then you need to figure out its temperature based on the results from the first part, plus friction from any tyres, incident heat from the sun etc. etc.
So, we're talking about running
FEM at the same time as playing the game. Not gonna happen.
CHEAT!
What can happen, though, is these simulation steps can be taken in pre-production and then parameterised according to the current "water-level" and the current rainfall rate. Then you'd have the equivalent of many "pre-baked" lightmaps, but for rain! You interpolate between these levels of rainyness for the modeling of the surface conditions according to the rainfall
history only.
The bonus here is, depending on memory limitations, you could add in rubbering-in and "dust" effects really really easily, and couple it with temperatures.
Lots of testing will determine the resolution of the initial solver and the tables which get "looked-up" in-game for the "grip modifiers" of the track surface elements, according to temperature, rain and rubbered-in-ness. Well that's how I'd do it, anyway.
But, it all seems as though it's probably a bit much for GT.
And I wouldn't be satisfied with a half-arsed dynamic implementation, so as far as I'm concerned
weather should either be fully dynamic or static.
Wow, I hurt myself.