Is GT7 dying of death? [March 2022 - March 2023 RIP in peace | Happy Anniversary] [Proof]

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skidmark69

skidmark69

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Western Sahara
Western Sahara
In case you didn't know, PD publishes a lot of time trial results on their website. This includes time trials from daily races. E.g. this week's daily c can be found on https://www.gran-turismo.com/gb/gt7/sportmode/event/4773

Seems like they started doing this around June last year. Maybe there's results from earlier races floating around too but I haven't found them/looked for them. But I thought it would be interesting to look at how many people took part in the daily races each week since then to see how GT7 is doing as a game now that it's been out for a year.

And while I was at it I also looked at which tracks they have used for daily races, cause for some reason it feels like some get repeated a lot, and some not used at all.

First, here's the average, min and max number of accounts which set a qualifying time for daily race a,b,c each week

RaceMeanMinMax
A33 50020 50050 400
B49 20032 50070 900
C40 30021 90063 000

Here's a plot showing the total number of players that set a quali time across all 3 daily races each week (multiply y values with 100 to get the actual number of players):

newplot.png


So there's your answer I guess. GT7 is not really dying. The slight drop in player count towards the end of last year seems to have been regained with the Christmas sales, but it's been pretty stable all the way through.

Obviously this only takes into account daily races, and single player game time may have dropped massively and not followed the same trend seen from daily races, but getting stats for that would be a major hassle.

As for the daily race tracks, a total of 59 different ones have been used since June last year (not including this week's races). So that leaves quite a few that haven't been used as from what I could Google there are now 108 layouts in the game. Below is a list with all the ones that have been repeated. This might look slightly different if you add in the first few months worth of daily races, but I couldn't get that automatically from the gt website, although it would be possible to add from other resources. Same goes for cars used and fuel/tyre wear multipliers.

Screenshot_2023-03-03-22-36-31-48_f90b96e7af3c5a594eb0c92de7fc5fe1~2.jpg
 
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Why do people continue to use Sport Mode as any kind of indicator of how many people are actually playing the game? Only 12.9% of people who have installed GT7 and launched it once have even completed one Sport Mode race; only 2.2% have completed 50 Sport Mode races. Even going by the 6 million total sales estimate before the 2022 holiday season, that means that only 774,000 players have tried Sport Mode and 132,000 have played more than 50 races.

Many people have said it before, and many people will say it in the future: Sport Mode stats do not represent the total player base.

GT7 is not dead until there are no more updates and/or the servers are taken offline. Until then, you're just randomly speculating and fanning the fires of chaos.
 
Also, I don't think the chart is correct...maximum numbers being that low and mean, or average, is the highest? wut
 
MikeUD06
Why do people continue to use Sport Mode as any kind of indicator of how many people are actually playing the game? Only 12.9% of people who have installed GT7 and launched it once have even completed one Sport Mode race; only 2.2% have completed 50 Sport Mode races. Even going by the 6 million total sales estimate before the 2022 holiday season, that means that only 774,000 players have tried Sport Mode and 132,000 have played more than 50 races.

Many people have said it before, and many people will say it in the future: Sport Mode stats do not represent the total player base.

GT7 is not dead until there are no more updates and/or the servers are taken offline. Until then, you're just randomly speculating and fanning the fires of chaos.
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I mean I did mention that caveat about online vs single player...

But if you want to look at percentages for trophies, then don't forget the single player ones.

25% have finished the cafe
16% have all licenses (3.7% all gold)
13.8% have 100 cars
7.6% have driven more than 13 000km
5% have completed 15 tracks circuit experience

People just don't really play the games they buy to be honest...

So based on that the 2.2% that have done 50 races is actually a significant portion of the active player base. And more than enough for statistics. When they do polls for elections and stuff they don't actually ask everyone in the country, but they still get a representative piece of information out of it, even if it might be slightly off.

But yeah the main conclusion here is given sports mode numbers, which are the best we've got, gt7 is in fact not dying.

Although personally I think if you had single player stats it would look worse, not better, given the state of single player with lack of events and bad AI.
TumeK5
Also, I don't think the chart is correct...maximum numbers being that low and mean, or average, is the highest? wut
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Yeah I forgot to add the 00 to the end of the max numbers. Thanks.
 
Amazing people instantly complain about the numbers not being the right numbers because they're for online. Almost like they're annoyed the game isn't dead.

Like, they're the only numbers we have. I don't know what they expect? It's just nice to see that there's a decent population still in the areas we are able to look at.
 
Nebuc72
Amazing people instantly complain about the numbers not being the right numbers because they're for online. Almost like they're annoyed the game isn't dead.

Like, they're the only numbers we have. I don't know what they expect? It's just nice to see that there's a decent population still in the areas we are able to look at.
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Oh, believe me, I don't think the game is dead or anywhere close to it. Most people here would call me a "PD fanboy" because I actually think the game isn't terrible. I just wanted to point out the fallacy of using Sport Mode numbers to justify any position as to the status of the game.
 
skidmark69
25% have finished the cafe
16% have all licenses (3.7% all gold)
13.8% have 100 cars
7.6% have driven more than 13 000km
5% have completed 15 tracks circuit experience
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None of these stats necessarily needs combining in terms of how one enjoyes the game.
The only one of these stats that has any relevance to "playing" is driving more than 13000km (because it WILL happen after a while, whereas every other statistic doesnt need to happen), but there might be some people who just like Photomode more.

All in all, the game is alive as long as it recieves regular updates, because that means there is enoug players to warrant investing further effort of PD.
 
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Meythia
None of these stats necessarily needs combining in terms of how one enjoyes the game.
The only one of these stats that has any relevance to "playing" is driving more than 13000km, but there might be some people who just like Photomode more.

All in all, the game is alive as long as it recieves regular updates, because that means there is enoug players to warrant investing further effort of PD.
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Eh I think they tell a pretty clear story, even if you don't know the overlap of players between them all.

If only 25% have done the cafe, then that means either the other 75% don't really play the game, or they want to do other things than the cafe (let's ignore the fact that a lot of content isn't even available unless you've progressed through the cafe far enough). So if we assume they want to do other things, then what do they do? They certainly don't drive a lot. They're not doing licenses. They're not doing circuit experiences. They don't even have 100 cars to drive around in, which also means they aren't grinding the few races available. They aren't racing online. They've probably dabbled in the missions which isn't accounted for, but regardless, we know they aren't racing a lot. So we know the current percentage of active single players is a fairly small percentage of the total sales, and online racers are not as vastly outnumbered and such a minority as people seem to think.

There's also stats for photos, and it's like 1.8% whove taken more than 100 (and most of those probably did it for the platinum).

But yeah if you want to speak about 'dead' in the literal sense of the word it's when PD decides to pull the plug. But in the more common usage it just means the number of players has dropped significantly, which it doesn't seem to have done yet.

But I don't think current players matter that much to them to be honest. Their only revenue generation is through people buying credits to buy cars, and as can be seen from the stats not very many people even care enough to buy 100 out of the 450 or however many there are. A lot, if not most, of the added content was done, or close to done before launch, and it seems a big part of their business plan is ensuring whatever effort they put into new content for gt7 also fits straight into gt8
 
I simply believe to accept the fact people pay full price for a game and then never play it. I forget what ps3 game only had 75% of people beat the tutorial that was about 5 mins long.
If these numbers are true , then ALL criticism of the game lacking events and what not are objectively false when 75% of people don't even finish the café. That's like saying a game is too short when only 25% of people ever reach the end. It was objectively too long for 75% of the people who played it .
 
MonoTonouS
I simply believe to accept the fact people pay full price for a game and then never play it. I forget what ps3 game only had 75% of people beat the tutorial that was about 5 mins long.
If these numbers are true , then ALL criticism of the game lacking events and what not are objectively false when 75% of people don't even finish the café. That's like saying a game is too short when only 25% of people ever reach the end. It was objectively too long for 75% of the people who played it .
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It doesn't necessarily mean people found the Cafe too long, it could simply be that they didn't find it engaging enough. For example, using HowLongToBeat, people take on average 25 hours to beat the Cafe mode, which is pretty much the same at what the site registers for God of War Ragnarok. However, God of War Ragnarok has an over 50% finish rate, while GT7 has that 25% (27% on the PS4 version funnily enough).

To be fair to GT7 though, 20-30% is the norm for the majority of games, with usually only Sony games like Ragnarok or TLOU2 being the exception. I don't have a PS3 to check, but it would be interesting to see which % of people finished GT5 and GT6.
 
MonoTonouS
I simply believe to accept the fact people pay full price for a game and then never play it. I forget what ps3 game only had 75% of people beat the tutorial that was about 5 mins long.
If these numbers are true , then ALL criticism of the game lacking events and what not are objectively false when 75% of people don't even finish the café. That's like saying a game is too short when only 25% of people ever reach the end. It was objectively too long for 75% of the people who played it .
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You are ignoring the incredibly poor game design of the Cafe Mode. It is simply a continuous fetch-quest with no use for each car obtained before going straight to the next menu (fetch quest).

In anything other than a driving game this sort of campaign would be ridiculed. No wonder so many casual players don't bother to complete it.
 
ScottPye20
I don't even know why you'd bother going to soo much trouble for a thread like this.
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It's all automatic my man. Just a few lines of code whipped up in 15 minutes tops. It's a skill worth learning.

But yeah I found it really interesting that the player base is so stable, even if it is small. Some will find it interesting, some not 🤷‍♂️. Numbers can be hard.

Data is gold. Posting personal opinions and subjective views is all good on a forum, but it's never a good thing when those things are presented as facts, which often happens after things get repeated in echo chambers. Poignantly exemplified by a couple replies in this thread.
 
I love reading arguments where the different sides develop closer and closer to understanding and agreement, while also becoming more and more polarizing, every step of the way.
 
skidmark69
Eh I think they tell a pretty clear story, even if you don't know the overlap of players between them all.
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So, I spell it out for you about the 5 trophies you took for measuring how much players are playing this game.

1. I dont think there is any game with a 100% clear rate on the easiest (or first automatic trophy). Start your first menu book is at around 85%, so we know of those accounts who have at least started the game and "cleared" the music rally dont bother to go any further.
If they think music rally was all the game has to offer, I cant blame them, as I personally dont like the experience.

2. Clearing menuboom 39 is not necessary for anything but personal pride, as it only provides a car and a 6* ticket.
Could simply be skipped if all you care about is sports mode or photo mode. This trophy is for perfectionists of trophy collectors or racing enthusiasts, not necessarily average gamer. It only tells you 16% of the players have cleared it for any reason.
Golding the licenses is still a different story (I am missing only S7 and I dont bother the slightest).

3. 100 cars, sport mode players dont even need to buy cars, they can rent them.
Or you simply dont buy the cars that you dont drive with, so you dont need to do "stupid money grinding races".
This trophy doesnt tell you how many players are playing the game.
1.2% have collected the "3 legendary cars" so there arent many collector players, this is the real fact you wanted to look for instead

4. Driving more than 13000km, yes, this one directly puts numbers as facts. But only as long as you ignore photo mode players 1.8%, and it is actually quite alot do ask any casual player whos attention span is lasting for 2 hours into a single game before starting the next one.
But I think the better storyteller is this: https://www.gtplanet.net/gt7-players-driven-13bn-miles-20221213/

5. Not required for gameplay, not even interesting, just some source of credits.
I have finished all of them in the first days, so they are mostly silver or bonze with a few golds in between.
Did it to get a feel for the tracks and then thats all about it, I dont even drive most of the tracks at all.

And then as a final note I am missing these:
10 dirt races
all gold licenses
50 sport mode races
100 photos + both specific photos

I like the game and enjoy it when I simply can do any human comedy event once or twice per day.
But I dont like drifting, dirt, photos, and online mode.
Trophies dont tell you anything in this game.
 
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Let me add some fuel to the fire.
The fact that the single player side of the game is still alive 1 year after release is a massive achievement. They are the majority player base who buys the game. But almost impossible to keep active long term. Simply because at some point, an end is achievable. (ex. platinum trophy).

The reason the online active numbers is more relevant to keep track of, imo, is because they are the player base that determine if a game stays alive and relevant in the long run. And if they keep the online community active, interesting and competetive during the 2nd and 3rd (4th ext…) year, then they have a stable community to lean on / depend on, to bring back the deep pockets of the single players when the next game arrives.

TL;DR, single player community BUYS the game, online community PLAYS the game.

Cheers😬
 
W1gglyStyl3
Let me add some fuel to the fire.
The fact that the single player side of the game is still alive 1 year after release is a massive achievement. They are the majority player base who buys the game. But almost impossible to keep active long term. Simply because at some point, an end is achievable. (ex. platinum trophy).

The reason the online active numbers is more relevant to keep track of, imo, is because they are the player base that determine if a game stays alive and relevant in the long run. And if they keep the online community active, interesting and competetive during the 2nd and 3rd (4th ext…) year, then they have a stable community to lean on / depend on, to bring back the deep pockets of the single players when the next game arrives.

TL;DR, single player community BUYS the game, online community PLAYS the game.

Cheers😬
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How can the online player base keep the game alive when such a small percentage of overall players are active online?
 
MikeUD06
Why do people continue to use Sport Mode as any kind of indicator of how many people are actually playing the game? Only 12.9% of people who have installed GT7 and launched it once have even completed one Sport Mode race; only 2.2% have completed 50 Sport Mode races. Even going by the 6 million total sales estimate before the 2022 holiday season, that means that only 774,000 players have tried Sport Mode and 132,000 have played more than 50 races.

Many people have said it before, and many people will say it in the future: Sport Mode stats do not represent the total player base.

GT7 is not dead until there are no more updates and/or the servers are taken offline. Until then, you're just randomly speculating and fanning the fires of chaos.
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Yeah, and updates will not stop before 2025-2026, for sure. Also, the 6 million figure is from late 2022 but until now I think it reached the 7 million sales mark at the very least, especially with the Christmas discounts and the arrival of the VR2 support last month.
 
Julius Tuscan
Yes but my point is how can there be enough of them when only 2.2% of all players have done 50 online races, meaning the number of regular online players is even lower than that.
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I didn’t say the numbers were good or bad, promising or horrifying. People in this thread have been throwing around all kinds of percentages, and they are only relevant compared to total copies sold. And I only explained why I thought the numbers OP originally presented will be more relevant stats to follow, to get a better view/measurement of the games state of life.
 
Meythia
So, I spell it out for you about the 5 trophies you took for measuring how much players are playing this game.

1. I dont think there is any game with a 100% clear rate on the easiest (or first automatic trophy). Start your first menu book is at around 85%, so we know of those accounts who have at least started the game and "cleared" the music rally dont bother to go any further.
If they think music rally was all the game has to offer, I cant blame them, as I personally dont like the experience.

2. Clearing menuboom 39 is not necessary for anything but personal pride, as it only provides a car and a 6* ticket.
Could simply be skipped if all you care about is sports mode or photo mode. This trophy is for perfectionists of trophy collectors or racing enthusiasts, not necessarily average gamer. It only tells you 16% of the players have cleared it for any reason.
Golding the licenses is still a different story (I am missing only S7 and I dont bother the slightest).

3. 100 cars, sport mode players dont even need to buy cars, they can rent them.
Or you simply dont buy the cars that you dont drive with, so you dont need to do "stupid money grinding races".
This trophy doesnt tell you how many players are playing the game.
1.2% have collected the "3 legendary cars" so there arent many collector players, this is the real fact you wanted to look for instead

4. Driving more than 13000km, yes, this one directly puts numbers as facts. But only as long as you ignore photo mode players 1.8%, and it is actually quite alot do ask any casual player whos attention span is lasting for 2 hours into a single game before starting the next one.
But I think the better storyteller is this: https://www.gtplanet.net/gt7-players-driven-13bn-miles-20221213/

5. Not required for gameplay, not even interesting, just some source of credits.
I have finished all of them in the first days, so they are mostly silver or bonze with a few golds in between.
Did it to get a feel for the tracks and then thats all about it, I dont even drive most of the tracks at all.

And then as a final note I am missing these:
10 dirt races
all gold licenses
50 sport mode races
100 photos + both specific photos

I like the game and enjoy it when I simply can do any human comedy event once or twice per day.
But I dont like drifting, dirt, photos, and online mode.
Trophies dont tell you anything in this game.
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To be honest I'm not really sure what you are spelling out (maybe I even agree with most of what you're saying, but I'm just confused), but I disagree that trophies don't tell you anything in this game.

The numbers are what they are, and the only reason I brought up those trophies was to provide some perspective on the number of online players, which someone used a trophy stat to downplay.

Multiple people in this thread keep saying 2.2% having the 50 daily race trophy means people that race online are a tiny fraction of the player base, and mean nothing compared to people that do single player. But that contradicts the facts given by the trophies. If you isolate it to the distance driven trophy, then 7.6% of players are 'very active' players of the game, so people that play sport mode a lot are just under 1/3 of those. That's quite substantial. (And by the way 13 billion miles across 6 million players is only just over 2000 on average, not much at all)

Of course there are a lot of casual players who don't play enough/aren't good enough to get the trophies, but then you also have to consider casual online players (so use the one daily race trophy instead). Most people just don't play the games they buy that much, whether it's GT7 or other games, so it's a huge fallacy to look at a single trophy in isolation and say online players are an inconsequential percentage of players.

At the end of the day it doesn't really matter though. The numbers are what they are regardless of how anyone wants to interpret them. There's usually about 120 000 weekly participants in daily race time trials, and that number has been fairly stable since June last year. Interpret it how you will.
 
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