Let's do some maths folks. aka help please.

  • Thread starter strik3out
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From a strictly 3d art standpoint, there's no reason it would take 6 months for a professional 3d artist to complete 1 premium car. It should take take 1 month tops to complete the whole thing. The only issue I can see is texturing the interior, that could take some time getting your uv's correct.
 
GT6 will be on PS3 and will come out 2012, 2013 christmas latest. Why? Two reasons. One, PD said they have started working on GT6; they are either lying or they have started working on the PS3 platform. Two, GT6 will be an expansion on GT5. More content, some polish on visuals and sound.
GT5 95% percent will sell very well, around the 10 million mark. In the 5% case it does not, is the only reason we won't see another GT on PS3.

Sounds reasonable, but maybe another year.
GT4 was released 4 years after GT3. Whole GT5 was made from scratch, except for the GT4 cars. But hey, the engine was made from scratch! That is not little!
I guess GT6 is going to be based on GT5, so it won't take that much time. :)

I actually hope there will be a PS4 for GT6. Why? PS3's hardware was almost outdated when it came out. Even GT5 is slightly too heavy for the PS3.

But! Who said we can't enjoy GT5? :)
 
Just a couple of precisions.

GT5 has already taxed the PS3 to it's limits,
kaz already stated frame rate dropping on the PS3, there is no way to "work on the PS3" you can do firmware updates, but you can't fix the 256mb of Vram the RSX has, Sure it's fast, but speed can only do so much.

Uncharted 1 taxed the PS3 to its limits, they released a second one. GT3 taxed the PS2 to its limit, they released GT4, why wouldn't they release an "easy" second game, it's "almost" the same program. It is a better investement to develop a 2-3 year old GT6 for the PS3 than thinking about a console that doesn't exist. They have to work on GT6 either way, they will release what they have by then on PS3, believe me.

Anyways back on topic of hardware, the way how Video Rendering devices work are, when you have a device that is giving data to a TV, a lot of things are at hand, resolution, color, dpi, contrast. the higher these figures, the harder it's going to tax the hardware.

DPI has nothing to do with the source signal, it's just the pixels' size on the display device. Contrasts are irrelevant as they aren't part of the signal, and contrasts are higher in SD CRTs than your best HD Plasma or LED, full black and full white have been around a long time too, contrast levels will depend on the type and quality of your display. Color depth is irrelevant too, computers have been using truecolor, wich is beyond our perception, since the 90's and the PS3's hardware doesn't have the power to use alpha blending and aliasing that would justify deep color either. This is all very well known territory, just like fuel injection, it might look fancy but it's really not.

We have had a HUGE jump in what LCD/LED TV's can do since the PS3 came out, 3d wasn't around, LED TV's weren't around, TV's in 1080p (Companies started offering 1080p in 2005), and pure 1080p games JUST started coming out on the PS3. When the PS3 first came out 1080p was just a new thing, now all these TV's are getting MUCH better quality, and the games are starting to use even greater quality, put the 2 together and you get a very taxed machine.

Sony knew about 1080P, 1080i existed and progressive was on its way. A 1080P source signal is the same on the first 1080P LCD as the most recent LED, it's the same as 720P. 3D is new, but if you don't play in 3D the 2D shouldn't be affected, technically, in practice it might, but don't blame the TV nor the PS3, blame the game developer.

Just the Cell CPU was a 4 year, 400 million dollar project for the PS3. So they'll take just as long developing a new one for the PS4. 4-5 years from now (like i said) It just adds up to me is all.

I don't understand why you think Sony would put as much R&D into the Cell 2 as the original one? They already designed it, there probably be improvements, but nothing major as 4 years, with 4 years you'd get something completly different and the studios will have to re-learn most of its technology. The PS4 in itself might take 4 years to develop, but the processor alone, doubtful, especially when it already has the power for the PS4, all it needs is a faster RSX and twice the ram, though I see Sony going for a bigger, much bigger, Cell and total removal of a second graphic dedicated chip, its cost effective and way more powerfull, since everything happens in one die. Third-parties won't like it, but they never sold systems, unless they go exclusive.
 
Instead of quoting our paragraphs and making this thread huge, I'll just post a quick reply. :)

Uncharted 1 did push the RSX to it's limits, but we didn't get 30 FPS drops in Uncharted like we will in GT5, also, From a marketing perspective, why would they come out with a game in a year or 2 from now, and then when the new console comes out in 2 or so years after that not be ready? (even if they started development on the new console now), they'd need to work with that console another 3ish+ years into development before GT7 could even be made, and since GT is the playstations "flagship title" their whole point was making it so we didn't have to wait 4-5 years for it, so when they say things like that, it leads me to believe that they logically have learned from a mistake making us wait 5 years when it was lead to believe that it was going to come out straight away on the PS3 (that's why a lot of people purchased their PS3), not all, probably not even 15%, but that 15% is still a huge market. And if we're not going to end up waiting so long like we did with GT5, they'll have to release the next one much faster.

http://www.ps4sony.net/what-development-on-gran-turismo-6-underway/

"If the PlayStation 4 release date coincides with the predicted circa-2013 time-slot, then GT6 could well be a title on the PS4, rather than the PS3"

They want it to be a launch title, if they work 2-3 years on this to hurry and get a GT6 out, that leaves like 1 year into the last year of the dev time into GT6 to start for GT7 and with the consoles only coming a year or so even after that, that only allows like 2 years-ish research in to GT7 on new hardware, I dunno if they'd be able to pull that off in time "and" launch it on time with the PS4.
 
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Math is confusing sometimes, so Let's make a short you guys.


A picture is always worth a 1000 words, in the case roughly 200 Premium cars:



Based on the above, if they work diligently, starting (the process of design) one car a day, it would take them (6 months + (200 cars x 1 day)) = 6 months + 200 days (at the very least) therefore, close to 600 days of Premium cars designing ;)

Therefore a year and a half of hard work ;) The rest of the time, they were probably playing pool ;)

Hope my engineering point of view helps.
 
But it could be a PS3 title AND PS4 launch title, if the physics are that good they can release the physics as it is, same with sound, photomode clearly points out that graphics are spot on, flesh out some race glitches and release as is, they can release GT6 in 2 years with the GT7 content they have by then and GT5 under the hood with new menus and music, I would buy it, then two years later releas GT7 on PS4. From a business point of view, it's the senseful thing to do. If they do it with 50 000$ car I won't feel cheated for being resold GT5 with more content, if there is more content, not a mere 50 premiums and 10 tracks.
 
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Math is confusing sometimes, so Let's make a short you guys.


A picture is always worth a 1000 words, in the case roughly 200 Premium cars:



Based on the above, if they work diligently, starting (the process of design) one car a day, it would take them (6 months + (200 cars x 1 day)) = 6 months + 200 days (at the very least) therefore, close to 600 days of Premium cars designing ;)

Therefore a year and a half of hard work ;) The rest of the time, they were probably playing pool ;)

Hope my engineering point of view helps.
210 of our current 1031 are premium, and not all 100 PD employees are workin on the cars, some are working on tracks, music, etc.
 
The math isnt going to work here. There are just too many unknowns. Were the teams able to dedicate 100% of time to modeling cars? Did they get pulled off to work on other parts of the game(Modeling tracks), other games like Prologue and GTPSP or perhaps working on demo builds? We dont know how large the team was, was it a constant number or did it start small and inflate as needed?

Indeed, how many people actually worked on one Premium car, was the whole process of modelling the same during the whole development time or did they find a way to streamline it and make the process more efficient and thus faster somewhere midway or towards the end?
I've read the modelling took 3 to 6 months depending on the car, I've read the classic Isuzu concept car for example actually took longer as the original designer of that car was involved during modelling (on the official GT5 site).
There are far too many unknowns and variables although in my opinion it seems it might not all exactly gone to plan, meaning the modelling itself (relatively few Premium cars for 6 years), some of the choices in the carlist (suggests to me they originally intended to create more) and some of the new additions (newly released during those 6 years) in the carlist having already been replaced or face-lifted in real life (suggesting they planned to release it much sooner which they in fact most likely did).
So you can calculate all you want, mere numbers wouldn't tell the whole story in this case anyway.
 
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