@ Luminis
Sure it will be hard for Nintendo it bring a kind of suprise like the Wii was, and it would have to be a totally different surprise because all those casual players are now onto the next fad which is app games, but I really think if they once again think a bit wacky they can still find a gimmick within the new hardcore target market that offers something unique that draws people it will be a success. There is still many more things that could be exploited or improved in that segment... things like Virtual and Augmented reality are hot technologies at the moment and as they improve its something Nintendo might want to look at for their next 'hook'. If third party dev's are impressed then the whole thing could roll into a success once again.
Yeah, that's why I said it could become a success, but it'll never ever be a Wii-like success. That was a one-hit wonder and it's obviously not coming back. Moreover, the whole 'wacky' stuff has, so far, never really caught on for the hardcore market, has it?
Things like augmented reality are cool and all, I simply can't see that doing anything for the hardcore gamers, much like the reaction I've seen so far to Forza incorporating Kinect...
As for motion I feel that Sony and MS should have not jumped on that bandwagon because it was a rash decision made on the back of the Wii's stellar performance and they needed a slice of the causal pie and quick. Now that they have actually gone and done it most don't really care anymore which is why I think Kinect and particularly Move will not becoming back for the next gen, it was too little too late in my opinion. I think they should be thinking about the next hot thing, probably like what Nintendo is thinking about right now.
That 'next hot thing' is already underway for MS and Sony, right now, and it's actually PSN and XBL, I think. That'll probably develop further, so we'll see stuff like Apps for consoles. And, in addition to that, the whole 'social networking' will increase even more... Looking at the iPad/iPhone and their AppStore as well as, say, Facebook, that's what influenced the whole industry and the internet as a whole the most in recent years.
Regarding Move and Kinect, whether they were good decisions or not, I think it actually took a few customers out of the Wii-Market, and that was probably good enough; the reason they never caught on as well is simple, though; even though Move (for example) is sold for games like Killzone, it's primarily a tool to catch some casual gamers. The systems themselves are catering to the more hardcore market (which again shows how little popularity that unconventional stuff enjoys with the hardcore crowd).
They may incorporate some nice twists here and there, but, unlike what happened with the Wii, it will not safe Nintendo from competing with MS and Sony. So they
have to develop a seriously good console to stand a chance, alongside a service akin to PSN/XBL.
Now, if they're going for the hardcore market again and can actually manage to secure a good third party support, it'll be nice to have a third competitor in the market. I still can't imagine seeing games like, say, Shift 2 Unleashed or Crysis 2 on a Nintendo console, but, hell, why not...
What is more likely to happen (as happened with the Gamecube) is that to avoid paying royalties they can develop a proprietary disk format which has the characteristics of Blu Ray but its not actually that format. It is rumoured MS will basically resurrect HDDVD as an 'Xbox disk' format and that will give them comparable capacity.
Well, considering how cheap HDD space has become as of late, its not unlikely that they're just going to have you install all kinds of stuff to replace missing space on the actual disk. With a decently big HDD, it wouldn't be that much of a problem, I think... However, I can't think of a next generation console that doesn't serve as a player of HD Movies. It'll definitely be interesting to see what they're coming up with.