Random Prize Cars - my views

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First of all I have used the search button and did not find anything regarding exactly what I am about to say.

Secondly prize cars are random.

Thirdly and this is my main point - random does not mean an equal chance. It means not based on any logic or previous events.

After you win a series or an endurance race the PS2 obviously runs its random number generator. Some people seem to think that it only generates 1 of 4 numbers (assuming there are not colour options).

eg at the All Japanese GT Championship in Amateur there are 4 prize cars on offer and there are no colour options:

Arta NSX
Denso Supra Race Car
Calsonic Skyline
Loctite Zexel GT-R

I have not run this series more than once or twice so have no experience to go by. The simple approach would be for the PS2 to choose an integer between 1-4 inclusive. This would result in a 1 in 4 chance of getting each prize.

What if they wanted to make the Zexel hard to win. Then they could generate an integer between 1-7 inclusive and allocate cars as follows:

1 Arta
2 Supra
3 Calsonic
4 Arta
5 Supra
6 Calsonic
7 Zexel

This is still random but not equal chances.

I think this may explain why some cars appear hard to win and peoples solution is normally to try different lap times or change their grandmothers age or press the xyz button at the right time but I think if it is a series and you have a save game keep going. There is a thread here where someone did keep going and they proved that eventually you do get the car you want.

My experience at Seattle Endurance suggests that the ZZII is easy to win, Skyline a little harder, Panoz and F1 both harder again. But definitely random.
 
I am proposing that it could be.

It would certainly explain why my wife is grumpy with me and my mileage has gone through the roof.
 
As neon_duke has stated in several threads, and I've been able to somewhat confirm this through my own testing- the "number generator" is based on your cumulative time in the series. For example, if you do the save trick, but exit out of the last race during different times, you'll be more likely to get a different car. If you keep exiting at around the same time (ie: such as 3 seconds after the race starts), chances are that you'll get the same car.

I'm definitely not saying that it's a fact, but it seems like the best explanation to me, especially from my own experiences. :)
 
nup, thats not so YC. after doing the "save trick" I have found that even if you exit at EXACTLY the same time each time you still dont know what you are getting...

it is tottaly random, completely and utterly.
I have proven this to myself over and over again.
completely random

theres no special number generator ar anything.

if there are 4 cars to win, then each time you do the "save trick" you have a 1 in four chance of getting each car. Whih means, yes! u can keep getting the same one over and over.
 
Originally posted by youth_cycler
As neon_duke has stated in several threads, and I've been able to somewhat confirm this through my own testing- the "number generator" is based on your cumulative time in the series. For example, if you do the save trick, but exit out of the last race during different times, you'll be more likely to get a different car. If you keep exiting at around the same time (ie: such as 3 seconds after the race starts), chances are that you'll get the same car.

I'm definitely not saying that it's a fact, but it seems like the best explanation to me, especially from my own experiences. :)
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When I do the save game trick I exit out of the last race within a second of it coming up. This would be about 3-4 seconds before you take off for the last race (I think). In some race series I seem to get the same car over and over again but on others I don't.
For example I ran the Amateur Dream Car Race this morning and quit out of the last race within a second of it coming up. The cars I was offered were:

RX7 LM Car Red
Imprezza White
Imprezza Yellow
RX7 Black
Rx7 Black
RX7 Red
RX7 White
FTO Blue (which I took as I do not yet have this car).

I am not exaggerating when I say my quit point would have been within 0.5 sec each time and always before much happens. I have got the buttons to press down to a fine art so I press them very quickly ie X to start, start, left, X all within about a second. Maybe 1.5 seconds. But this is always before the countdown in the race starts and would not vary much between tries.

My time registered for the last race is therefore NULL ie non existent. My times for the previous 5 races obviously can not change. I have tried your theory and it appeared to work once out of about 10 goes. I am still sticking to my theory.

Actually what I will do (maybe tonight or at least start tonight) is do the Dream Car series and save the game with enough points to win. I will then reload 12 times before the race starts. I will then do 4 completing 25% of a lap, 4x75% of a lap and 4 where I have posted a complete lap time. This may take a while but I may also do 4 where I post a lap time in a position other than 1st and 4 where I complete 2 laps.

I may also do the Altezza Series at some stage as I want the different coloured Altezzas and X540s (I may even get a Vitz in a nice colour LOL). This will probably need to wait until Friday night though.

I know I am crazy and there are probably 10000000 people out there who have either done this or from their experience have concluded one way or other but I am at a point where something different is needed to keep me sane (or send me further insane). So I will do this experiment and document my findings. At least this way it is an independent experiment and I think that is what we need rather than just theories with no statistics.

It would be interesting to see if 2 different series come up with similar or different results too.
 
Heres what I find. The better you do on the track (total time, # of times you crash into a wall, etc.) the better the car you win.
Like in the enduros...
In Seatle theres a couple of hard turns to make, you know how it is. Hit a wall, hit a wall. So I get a ZZII from that race.
In the Mazda Roadster one, the cars go so slow its acually hard to mess up. I get a F688/S.
In Tokyo, theres a straightaway and the easy, easy turns especially with an f1. I get the F094/H
In the Polyphony Digital, the series where you gotta race Normal, slow cars (reducing any chance of error), I got the F094/S (even though I would've gone back to my save game, skipped a race, and got another car if I didn't get the Indy.
Now on each of these races, I used my lil (probably just my luck) trick where I press the direction of the car I want on the prize selection screen and I get that car, but who am I to say that works.
My point is, the better I've done in a race/series, the better the car that's come out of it... or maybe the better I've done on the race, the better the chances of my trick working?
Man is it in a secret document, locked away in a vault, sealed off with cement, in an unexplored part of Antartica how this stuff works? Why can't one of the programmers come forward and disclose this? Surely at least one of them has been to this site.
I'm an angry customer now.:mad:
 
Derf - If that was true I would always get the worst car and would certainly not have any F1 cars.

Are you saying that the Super Speedway rubberband trick is judged as a perfect race because people have won F1s doing that.

Also if that was true the save game would not work without racing the last race with differing performance.

Anyway I have said that I will put my money (time) where my mouth is and do the experiment.

On endurance races I can not believe the chances are 1 in 4.

I am keeping a list of my recent experience here

I know this is a small sample but I had similar experiences at Seattle before I started this list. I will keep documenting as I have not seen anyone document a large number of endurance races. Before anyone gets into a flame war or argument (I have seen that before on this issue) why don't we let the stats do the talking for a while. I will keep you posted.

The programmers will not reveal because it will spoil it. If we knew what we had to do to win the car we want then we would have put the game on our shelves by now. The best we would get from them is "it is random".
 
<JOKE>

But do you mean

<subliminal message> RANDOM <subliminal message>

or

<subliminal message> 1/4 <subliminal message>

<END JOKE>
 
oh, ok...

yeah well as random as it gets... ie 1 chance in however many cars ther are...
yes random.
gah!!
brain frozen!! :(
 
Okay, it's just random people...now move on and get over it ;)
 
I've been able to get the cars I want by pressing and holding the 'X' button when the car I want is highlighted. If that's just luck, then I must be pretty damn lucky.

In any case, I'm up for a 'draw' pretty soon, I'll make a test of it.
 
And you have got these cars 100% of the time. I highly doubt that mate.
 
Originally posted by DODGE the VIPER
And you have got these cars 100% of the time. I highly doubt that mate.
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Well, everytime I'm certain I hit the button at the right time, yes.

I've basically tried it. If I just let it spin, I may get the same thing everytime, in different colours. But when I hit the button right, I get something else that I want.

Well, like I said. It could be luck, but as I can't hit it right 100% of the time, I still get what I want when I'm sure I got it right.

Look at it this way, I've made a 10 times try out of it. I hit it right 8 times, and I got the Vertigo race car I wanted. This was in the European Championship in Amateur. I wanted that car to sell for cash. If I let it spin on its own, and it gives that to me like once or twice out of ten times.

It may be luck, but the luck sure got better when I intervened.

I'm not saying that's how it works for sure, 'coz I don't know if that's how it works for sure. But that's the symptoms I've been getting. Heck, if it only happens in my room, then great for me!
 
OK, whatever pushes your buttons.
 
Patience is definitely a virtue with this. Using the save trick I've always gotten the car I wanted eventually, but it does make me long for the good old days of GT2 when all you had to do to make a cool 550,000 credits was win one five lap race at Red Rock Valley in GT All Stars. Then again, Polyphony could have made all golds in the licenses a requirement to get 100% game completion so I'm not complaining too loudly. ;)
 
honestly. Ive heard people say this RANDOM STUFF for far too long..... YOU CAN CHOOSE YOUR CAR.....i have had plenty of races where i have chosen my car... JUST PRESS "x" !!! YOU HAVE TO BE QUICK ABOUT IT..... quick means while the BLACK GT symbol is still circling around..... PLEASE JUST TRY IT AND YOUR WORRIES WILLL BE OVER.. the only problem is that once the bottom two carts get on the screen it is too late to choose.. so you need a good eye
 
Originally posted by *SWO00OP*
honestly. Ive heard people say this RANDOM STUFF for far too long..... YOU CAN CHOOSE YOUR CAR.....i have had plenty of races where i have chosen my car... JUST PRESS "x" !!! YOU HAVE TO BE QUICK ABOUT IT..... quick means while the BLACK GT symbol is still circling around..... PLEASE JUST TRY IT AND YOUR WORRIES WILLL BE OVER.. the only problem is that once the bottom two carts get on the screen it is too late to choose.. so you need a good eye
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If you must do it before the bottom 2 cars come up then you can only pick the top 2 cars as they are the only two you will know when the GT symbol is under them. Doesn't this prove that theory wrong.

I will test this with the RX7 in the Dream Car series as I want that car.

Anyway, I did an experiment last night. It was not exactly what I said I would do but I think it is still a useful experiment.

I had enough points after 5 races in the Dream Car series so quit the 6th race and saved.

When the 7th race came up I pressed X to start, then start, left, X all very quickly. This would have been within a second as it was always before the screen had completely faded in. So there was not a time recorded in the 7th race. I did this 23 times. Why 23 I hear you ask. I was going to do it 12 times but decided to go for 20. The 20th car I did not want so I kept going until a car came up that I did not have.

1. S2000 Blue
2. Imprezza White
3. Imprezza White
4. Imprezza Gun Metal Grey
5. FTO Yellow
6. FTO Yellow
7. S2000 Orange
8. Imprezza Orange
9. Imprezza Orange
10. FTO White
11. Imprezza Yellow
12. RX7 Black
13. Imprezza Orange
14. Imprezza Orange
15. RX7 Red
16. FTO White
17. RX7 White
18. S2000 Blue
19. Imprezza White
20. RX7 Black
21. RX7 White
22. FTO Red
23. Imprezza Orange

Summary

S2000x3
Imprezzax10
FTOx5
RX7x5

This is a decent smoragsbord of models to suggest it can not be based on any performance issues, especially the one that is total time versus number of crashes or whatever it is. This ratio would have been the same for me and therefore is proven wrong.

I can also say that about 2-3 days ago I got flooded with RX7s when I wanted a Blue FTO or Red S2000. Didn't keep the stats but got rather annoyed.

I will do this experiement again as I would like an RX7 in either blue or green.

I will also indulge the "press X" crowd and do an experiment for that.

After the above experiment I did the Altezza series as I wanted another colour Altezza LM Car. The other day I got 2 X540s. Last night I got Vitz, Altezza Red, Altezza Blue (which I kept).
 
I want to do 2 experiments but need a bit more detail to make sure I am testing the right thing.

To those who vote for escaping at different points of the last race is it the sector timing line that you suggest makes the difference ie if I quit after crossing the sector timing line is that sufficient to test your theory ?

To those who vote for the press x theory:

When you "get it right" does the black gt symbol keep circling or stop ?
I have heard that it does not work on the first or last time the symbol is under the car. Is this what you say as if I test this I want to try to use your exact method.
How do you know you pressed at the right time ? Is it just the case that it looked like you pressed it at the right time ?
 
Originally posted by ving
RANDOM!
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<subliminal message> I agree <subliminal message>

I just want statistics to back up my belief.

I agree with random but not yet 1/4 chance.

If it is 1/4 chance I should soon get heaps of cars at Seattle endurance other than ZZII. Lets hope at least one is a POL002 in a colour I do not have yet.
 
Well, with my (erm, neon_duke's) theory, I never said that the time totally influences the number generator... I said that it has an influence. Yes, it still is random, but it's a biased random.

Of course, I could be totally wrong, but unless I find something better, I'm stickin' with it. ;)
 
Originally posted by youth_cycler
Well, with my (erm, neon_duke's) theory, I never said that the time totally influences the number generator... I said that it has an influence. Yes, it still is random, but it's a biased random.

Of course, I could be totally wrong, but unless I find something better, I'm stickin' with it. ;)
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How far into the lap do I need to go for it to have an influence as I want to experiment. I wanted to make sure I quit at the same times one the lap so thought that using the sector times was a good point to quit.
 
Originally posted by gumpy
[BIf it is 1/4 chance I should soon get heaps of cars at Seattle endurance other than ZZII. Lets hope at least one is a POL002 in a colour I do not have yet. [/B]
Click to expand...

no, no, no!!

random.

1/4 chance of getting the ZZII each time, which means that you have a 1/4 chance of getting the ZZII 500 times in a row! :p

depressing, aint it! :p
 
Originally posted by gumpy
How far into the lap do I need to go for it to have an influence as I want to experiment. I wanted to make sure I quit at the same times one the lap so thought that using the sector times was a good point to quit.
Click to expand...
Thing is, I'm not sure whether it's based on just the last lap, or if it's based on the cumulative time of the entire series, so I really wouldn't be able to answer you. However, it seems like 10-15 seconds is the minimum amount of time to make a relatively considerable difference, from my own experiences.
 
Originally posted by gumpy
To those who vote for the press x theory:

When you "get it right" does the black gt symbol keep circling or stop ?
I have heard that it does not work on the first or last time the symbol is under the car. Is this what you say as if I test this I want to try to use your exact method.
How do you know you pressed at the right time ? Is it just the case that it looked like you pressed it at the right time ?
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It's very kind of you to go through the trouble. Personally, I do this because (as I mentioned), my 'luck' seems to be very good when I intervene ;)

Here's how it goes. I have noticed that you can't wait too long, so I will press the button within 3 to 4 revolutions of the 'roulette'. The gist is that you have to recognize the silhouette of the car you want. The Vertigo in the Erupean Championship is easy to recognize, so I got this practically everytime. Choosing the S2000 I wanted was harder as there are two of them.

Anyway, once I spot the car I want, I press and hold 'X' when the marker is under it. Then, I keep my eye on the car and confirm it's the one I wanted. But of course, you have to get pressing the button down to a pat.

In all fairness, how successful would I know I am (or anyone)? The only thing I can really say is that if you have enough confidence that you've pressed the button at the right time, and you can keep your eye on the car you pressed for, then there is a much percentage that it was executed right.

Then after that, just take down the data and look at the statistics. But for me, my 'luck' has been consistently good.
 

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