Originally posted by danoff
I'd like to see you back this up... that the attack was a direct result of a decision that the popular party made.
Your claim here is that the Spaniards would have voted the same way regardless of the attack. I'm not completely certain but I think that's wrong according to polls.
Well, quite clearly I can't, since I'm not an operative with Al Qaeda - but it would an assumption in the minds of most voters, I would suggest.
Opinion polls prior to the election (from little information I could find - most of the links seem go to indignant blogs accusing the Spaniards of being cowards) seem to suggest voters were tending towards another Patrido Popular candidate. I have no idea of how close the polls were.
I didn't actually claim that the Spanish were going to vote for the PSOE prior to the election - I had tried to find information on pre-polling but had not been able to find much information.
I guess the point I was trying to make was that the decision to send troops to Iraq was extremely unpopular in Spain. They have a very large illegal immigrant population, a large number of whom are Muslims, and they have much larger internal concerns about terrorism (I guess living for decades in the shadows of ETA will do that).
In the week before the election, 200 people were killed in an event that is extremely likely to have been linked to the decision to send troops.
Think of it this way - say a Government makes a hugely unpopular decision to introduce an immunisation program that is compulsory for all citizens. The immunisation program starts a week before the election, and on the first day, 200 people die as a result of the immunisation, with many others severely injured. Would said Government get by without some ramifications at the ballot box?
It's not the best parallel, but it brings across the point - if you cut across public opinion, it will cost you. I'm sure such an incident would provoke very different reactions in different countries - it would probably strengthen the US's resolve, and to be frank, I have no idea what would happen here in Australia.
The other part of what I was trying to get across was that all of the comment I have seen has made no effort to understand the environment in Spain in the months and years leading up to the attacks, politcally and also from a demographic viewpoint.
The opinion there is that assisting in the war in Iraq is not the best use of Spanish resources in their war against terror. I have the same issue here - I think Australian resources would be much better employed in Afghanistan and South East Asia, and I would have thought the Bali bombing would have been evidence enough of that. We're much closer to Pakistan than the US is, and we should be exploiting that relationship to provide better focus on the leaders of Al Qaeda. I am still firmly of the opinion that Australian support in the war in Iraq was not the best use of our resources, both from ours and international viewpoint.
...but thats a whole different story. Note that this is an
opinion and not stated as a matter of fact.
On another point - this thread does highlight why I generally don't get involved in these debates. Reason seems to go out the window and they degenerate into name calling. A particular personal favourite is the use of the word 'liberal' as an abuse term - it's the name of the right wing party here, so it's particularly ironic from a local point of view.