Where will your DR be months from now? A prediction with Microsoft Excel & Kudos Prime (w/tutorial)

Interesting. I find that (despite the qualifying efforts) I almost never succeed in the first race. The second maybe. From third on I might get into the zone.

My problem is that, recently, I just can't qualify high enough... in the race I am perfectly "successful" as far as not losing my starting position and usually gaining 1 or 2 determines success (as you can see on my screengrab a few comments back). At this level, you are never going to overtake 5 or 6 cars....
 
Just some random (and not very constructive) thoughts in absolutely no particular order.

1. I would guess that a time series analysis would be more appropriate here.

2. Predicting things that are directly influenced by humans is complicated. It might be best not to attempt to predict a very specific number, but rather give a confidence interval or a probability. That way, you are technically never wrong :lol:

3. Maybe the DR change per race would be better data than DR change per day (unless you drive the same amount of races every day). I'm fairly sure you don't have access to such data though.

4. As others have said, your DR will probably plateau at some point simply because the competition you face gets stronger. One way to quantify that "competition" factor, is to analyse other people's DR profiles and see if there is a common pattern. This data will most likely be polluted by those damn aliens, who simply win every race and whose DR practically increase exponentially.

5. Regarding the 75k points limit, looking at the DR rankings, some 75k drivers are ranked higher than other 75k drivers. So I wonder if PD actually does not cap DR for internal rating purposes and simply continues to add up DR points with no upper limit.

This is a great exercise though :cheers: Having all of that data (thanks to people like jasguer and Milouse) and doing nothing with it would be a waste.
 
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how did you predict this?
 
Dan dude, you really have plateaued:(
Worse than plateaued :lol:

Every race I enter now I have at least 1 of the current top 10 in and I start bottom half at best, bottom 3 at worst... last night at Interlagos I got P17 with a q time of 1:38.778 and P1 was ART-Boltxin who was #1 EMEA. The night before in the E30 race I had the Greek guy that was #1 in EMEA and some weirdo called Nuschel. Suzuka on Sunday I had adstomko and seraphoth.

I am not cut out to race against these people, Polyphony :( give me a break

Edit: surprised to see you have gone down after last night
 
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