2011 Malaysian Grand Prix

My prediction:

Wet Race (and I do mean WET :p )

Several DNF due to crashes /collisions. Among them:

Vettel / Webber / Massa / Petrov / Schumacher / Perez /


Top ten, from bottom to top:

10th - Heikki Kovalainen
9th - Paul di Resta
8th - Jaime Alguersuari
7th - Nick Heidfeld
6th - Rubens Barrichelo
5th - Kamui Kobayashi
4th - Nico Rosberg
3rd - Jenson Button
2nd - Lewis Hamilton

and ...



Alonso will win this comfortably.

:lol:

Noteworthy: Team Lotus by Tony gets their first point :cheers:
 
Will be interesting to see how things go at Renault this weekend. Hoping they can do well. Hope Petrov does well again. Will be interesting to see how Heidfeld gets on.
 
I predict that Vettel is going to make a race ending mistake here (Wet race, aquaplaning onto the gravel), leaving Webber open for the win. But qualifying will be done in the dry.

I feel we haven't seen the most from Williams or Mercedes, but I don't think the order will change much. Perhaps Mclaren will drop a bit of time, I do not believe their car is as good here as it was in Melbourne. Ferrari and Renault will be challenging Red Bull for pole (I say challenging but what I actually mean is chasing, similar to a donkey chasing a carrot attached to a stick and a piece of string), and the Saubers which are strong on high speed circuits like this will both reach Q3, perhaps pushing the Mclaren of Jenson Button out of the top ten.

My predictions never turn out to be 100% correct, but I make so many of them that it resembles a shotgun shell effect, meaning i'm bound to get something right :)
 
I think Vettel is just a young Shumacher. Has a lot of wins left in him and could see the majority of his career at Red Bull

Aka the new Rain miester?
 
Vettel making a mistake in the rain is an odd prediction. Let's not forget his first win.
Let's not forget Sepang 2009, where he spun off. I believe he retained the position because the race was stopped and the results applied retroactively.
 
Let's not forget Sepang 2009, where he spun off. I believe he retained the position because the race was stopped and the results applied retroactively.

Er, what? What does a monsoon-swamped race have to do with wet weather skills? Staying on the track in a race like that is complete luck that you don't aquaplane.
There are more examples of Vettel doing well in wet conditions, the most obvious being Japan 2007, Monza 2008 and China 2009 as well as Brazil 2008 where he almost screwed Hamilton's title.
Korea 2010? The list goes on.
 
I've been waiting for this race.
It's only around 20km away from my home.lol.

The weather here are unpredictable, sometimes rain in morning, sometimes in evening or even night. And yep, it's thunderstorm, not just any rain.

I'll hoping for Red Bull win again...or Lotus Renault...or Team Lotus get their first point.
Also hoping to see HRT get in the grid. I want to see all 24 cars on the grid...though that seems impossible...
 
Er, what? What does a monsoon-swamped race have to do with wet weather skills?
Uh, because it was in Malaysia, and it was at about this time of year when it happened. With several storm cells in and around Selangor, there's a fair chance of rain at some point during the weekend - and that rain could easily be heavier than what it usually experienced. With several drivers complaining that the wet Pirellis go off even faster than the dry compounds, this race could easily be a test of a driver's ability just to stay on the road. If the heavens open up and all hell breaks loose, having a fast car isn't going to count for much. The driver who wins will be the best wet weather driver.

And yep, it's thunderstorm, not just any rain.
Has there ever been a Grand Prix in the middle of a thunder storm? Because it would look totally awesome with heavy clouds and lightning.
 
Malaysia 2009 still isn't the best evidence against a driver's wet weather skills.

I hope it isn't torrential rain on Sunday, but enough to blow every team's strategy. A thunderstorm seems like some pretty dangerous conditions to be racing in.
 
Why, because of the lighting? The cars aren't about to get struck by stray bolts. Lightning always follows the shortest path to the ground, which means it hits the highest point. Even at the highest point around the circuit (turn four, I believe), the cars are still not as high as the surrounds.
 
Although it would be cool to see, I would have to think that the rain associated with any thunderstorm that rolls through would dump way more water on the track than what Charlie would allow them to race in. They seem to be getting more and more pansy on how wet the track can be before the race is flagged. I know they do it in the name of safety, but there are acres of runoff areas to slide across before anyone is at any risk of hitting anything.
 
Thunderstorms do not necessarily drop more water than other types of rain. Indeed, a lot of monsoons are not accompanied by thunder and lightning. We had a thunderstorm the other day, but most of the rain fell in town rather than over the university. We simply got the lightning because the university is the second-highest point (after the airport) in town.

I wouldn't say the FIA are getting "more and more pansy" about the conditions they will allow drivers to race in. The rain at Sepang in 2009 did lead to the stoppage of the race, but a major contributing factor was the way darkness was rapidly closing in. And while the rain in Korea last year wasn't nearly as heavy as that at Sepang two years ago, the major concern there was the condition of the tarmac; it had literally just been laid, and so there was no time for the oils in the asphalt to be washed away.
 
Thunderstorms do not necessarily drop more water than other types of rain. Indeed, a lot of monsoons are not accompanied by thunder and lightning. We had a thunderstorm the other day, but most of the rain fell in town rather than over the university. We simply got the lightning because the university is the second-highest point (after the airport) in town.

Yes, but any rain that comes with a thunderstorm is generally pretty heavy (even if only for a short time and/or quite localised). And yes, heavy rain does not require the song and dance that is thunder and lightening. Anyway, I'm happy to leave it there, this isnt a weather thread.

At the end of the day, I just want a race that runs the full distance, with or without rain. I think the unknown quantity of tyre performance will make the race interesting enough regardless of the weather.
 
^^^ Agreed. Part of me wants a hectic wet race though. Maybe it was the Motogp at jerez that put me in the mood.
 
Uh, because it was in Malaysia, and it was at about this time of year when it happened. With several storm cells in and around Selangor, there's a fair chance of rain at some point during the weekend - and that rain could easily be heavier than what it usually experienced. With several drivers complaining that the wet Pirellis go off even faster than the dry compounds, this race could easily be a test of a driver's ability just to stay on the road. If the heavens open up and all hell breaks loose, having a fast car isn't going to count for much. The driver who wins will be the best wet weather driver.

What does that have to do with Vettel's wet weather skills? The point you were responding to was that its odd to suggest Vettel would lose out in a wet race.
In a monsoon race, as I said, its pretty much luck who stays on the track. I don't see why Vettel is singled out for failure in that situation.
 
Awesome, I love Sepang.

Definitely backing Buemi for some points.
 
Why, because of the lighting? The cars aren't about to get struck by stray bolts. Lightning always follows the shortest path to the ground, which means it hits the highest point. Even at the highest point around the circuit (turn four, I believe), the cars are still not as high as the surrounds.


Additionally, rubber tyres do not conduct electricity, which means the drivers are far more likely to be safe in a thunderstorm than say, the spectators holding umbrellas.

Interludes, I think your comments about Vettel spinning off in Malaysia are slightly ambiguous, because like Ardius said, the fact is that in such torrential conditions where aquaplaning is commonplace, it reaches a point where staying on the road is as much down to luck as it is skill. Yes, other people did not bin it, and he did, but it was probably more a case of 'wrong place at the wrong time,' rather than a skill shortfall.
 
Apropos of nothing, car tyres are excellent insulators for static electricity. Not so much for lightning - disregard such subtleties as which way lightning goes, up or down, the electric charge manages to get between clouds 8 miles up and the car. Another couple of inches from the lowest point of the car to the ground isn't going to faze it any.
 
Interludes, I think your comments about Vettel spinning off in Malaysia are slightly ambiguous, because like Ardius said, the fact is that in such torrential conditions where aquaplaning is commonplace, it reaches a point where staying on the road is as much down to luck as it is skill. Yes, other people did not bin it, and he did, but it was probably more a case of 'wrong place at the wrong time,' rather than a skill shortfall.
The insinuation from previous posts was that Vettel had superior wet-weather skills and would absolutely stay on the circuit under any conditions.
 
The insinuation from previous posts was that Vettel had superior wet-weather skills and would absolutely stay on the circuit under any conditions.

He means under 'normal' wet conditions. Vettel has had several victories and otherwise good drives in races where rain levels aren't abnormal. The rain they get at Malaysia is not within the limits of the tyres, so it becomes more a case of luck if you can stay on the track. Monsoons can make all drivers look equally experienced, or equally inexperienced.
 
Vettel making a mistake in the rain is an odd prediction. Let's not forget his first win.

I think Vettel is just a young Shumacher. Has a lot of wins left in him and could see the majority of his career at Red Bull

Aka the new Rain miester?

Let's not forget Sepang 2009, where he spun off. I believe he retained the position because the race was stopped and the results applied retroactively.

The insinuation from previous posts was that Vettel had superior wet-weather skills and would absolutely stay on the circuit under any conditions.

:odd:

The only one who mentioned conditions other than simply "rain" was you.
 
I kind of started that Vettel discussion with my prediction that he was going to make a mistake. I predict this purely because he's in the fastest car and he is the championship leader, and to predict anything less means a Red Bull race win as long as nothing else goes wrong because the car is far too dominant at this type of circuit.

The spotlight is one him, I don't care how talented or composed he is, everyone can make mistakes under pressure, especially in the wet.
 
The car is dominant at this kind of circuit? I like and Red Bull and S. Vettel as much as the next guy, but there isn't anything that supports that statement. Also, simply because he has the fastest car and he is the championship leader doesn't mean he's going to go off. There isn't that much pressure being at the top of the standings going in to the second race. There's always pressure to win and do well, but hardly as much now as there will be.

Him being the championship leader relies solely on him winning in Australia. You could say, thinking there's only been one race, that the winner of the previous race, at any point during the season whether we're at Interlagos or Silverstone or Spa, has just as much pressure on him as Vettel will this weekend. It doesn't matter.
 
The car is dominant at this kind of circuit? I like and Red Bull and S. Vettel as much as the next guy, but there isn't anything that supports that statement.

The car is dominant at near every type of circuit, bar Monza. Not just the RB7, but RB in general for the past 2 seasons. Sepang has a lot of high speed bends and as we have seen in the last couple of seasons at tracks like Sepang, Catalunya, Hungaroring, Silverstone etc. that the Red Bull leaves competitors in the dust on the high speed sections, and we even saw this in the final sector in Melbourne. Sure, it has long straights but it's a long lap and the straights are nowhere near as long as for example, Spa (Where Red Bull was still pole and challenging for the lead the entire race distance in 2010). Infact, i'd put it on par with Silverstone for basic track characteristics, where Red Bull have dominated since the regulation changes at the start of 2009. Little has changed, this years cars are evolutions of last years cars and they all share the same basic characteristics as last years cars otherwise the designers are idiots and wasted a couple of years heading in the wrong development direction and wasting significant resources.

The only thing we don't really know is how the tyres will react on this sort of track in the sort of heat we usually get in Malaysia (If it's dry). That's probably the only thing that could work against Red Bull. But apart from that, it's only right to assume the Red Bull will be dominant on pace at this circuit as it follows the trend of the previous two years and the previous race too.

Also, simply because he has the fastest car and he is the championship leader doesn't mean he's going to go off. There isn't that much pressure being at the top of the standings going in to the second race. There's always pressure to win and do well, but hardly as much now as there will be.

Him being the championship leader relies solely on him winning in Australia. You could say, thinking there's only been one race, that the winner of the previous race, at any point during the season whether we're at Interlagos or Silverstone or Spa, has just as much pressure on him as Vettel will this weekend. It doesn't matter.

There is still pressure. Before this point, the only time Vettel has been the championship leader was at the end of the final race last year when he won it. He's never been under pressure to maintain his championship lead before (Unless you count provisional points during the course of a race - Though I will admit that reliability, not succumbing to pressure was the main factor involved in not winning those races). Vettel seems to excel when he's leading a race from pole, that's where he is untouchable. He's still young and we haven't seen enough of him yet to know how well he copes under pressure, and this is more pressure than he had for most of last year because more is expected of him.

Though I do agree with the bit in bold, that is what makes it simply a prediction.
 
Yes, they were so dominant in 2009 that Jenson Button and Brawn won six of the first seven races - the third-best start to a season in the history of the sport, behind only Nigel Mansell and Michael Schumacher.
 
Yes, they were so dominant in 2009 that Jenson Button and Brawn won six of the first seven races - the third-best start to a season in the history of the sport, behind only Nigel Mansell and Michael Schumacher.

Their car's pace once they had got their own double diffuser sorted out was way ahead of the Brawn. They were easily the best of the rest at the beginning of the season too, and kept improving consistently throughout. From Silverstone onwards they won more races than Brawn and Mclaren combined. Dominant is probably not the right word, but they did have the fastest car in the second half of the season.

We'll see how they do this weekend anyway, they're much more 'dominant' now than they were at the end of 2009.
 
A fast car does not make one dominant because you can completely drop the ball, as Red Bull did in 2009. One of the main reasons why they started favouring Vettel so heavily in 2010 was because they completely blew it the year before. Rather than backing one driver and let him mount an assault on Jenson Button's lead, Red Bull let Vettel and Webber race, and they ended up being too busy taking points out of one another to take the fight to Button. They might have won more races than Brawn and McLaren did from Silverstone onwards, but that's not exactly the most impressive feat in the world considering that Button won six races from seven and Red Bull then won five races from ten between their two drivers.
 
Rain means no DRS, will mean RB will need to use kers this time, unless they can get a good gear setup again.
 
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