2017-2018 English Football League Promotion/Relegation

  • Thread starter Famine
  • 74 comments
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Remember last Sunday?
Famine
It's marginally worse than that now - by shipping 5 goals, Swansea now have the 4th worst goal difference in the league. West Brom are only one goal worse off, so if they can score the three wins they need, they will overtake Swansea if Swansea don't do better than one draw in the last four.

Worse for Swansea is that their goal difference is four worse than Southampton's, the team one place and four points behind... and with a game against Swansea on the second-last day of the season.

The only saving grace there is that Southampton play Manchester City on the last day of the season, while Swansea play Stoke.
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Well, Swansea's goal difference is now the third worst, West Brom now only need two wins, Swansea have only three games left to get their draw and Southampton are one place and one point behind...
 
Congratulations to Wimbledon on surviving relegation from League One. From next season they will officially be higher in the pyramid than Milton Keynes Dons.

 
Things that can happen today:

League Two
Barnet will be relegated if they do not win. If Morecambe draw, they will survive unless Barnet beat Chesterfield by a goal difference of +7 (7-0, 8-1, etc).

League One
Northampton Town are relegated except in the very specific circumstances that:
* Northampton Town win by a goal difference of +9 (9-0, 10-1, etc) against Oldham and
* Rochdale lose
OR
* if Rochdale draw and
* Northampton Town win by a goal difference of +25 (25-0, 26-1, etc) and
* Oldham Athletic somehow survives the ensuing match-fixing scandal

Oldham Athletic are also relegated if they do not at least equal Rochdale's result.
If Rochdale lose, Rochdale are relegated.

Championship
Is tomorrow.

Premier League
If West Brom do not beat Tottenham, West Brom will be relegated.
If Stoke City at noon beat Crystal Palace, West Brom will be relegated (due to Swansea playing both Stoke and Southampton in their last games)
If Stoke City lose, they will be relegated too.
If Stoke City do not also at least match Swansea City's result, Stoke will be relegated. Furthermore, if Stoke don't win but Southampton do, Stoke will be relegated.
 
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Jimlaad43
Stoke have been relegated.
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Literally in their own hands, and they flubbed it. And we have the unusual situation of the second-bottom team being relegated before the bottom team :lol:
 
Famine
League Two
Barnet will be relegated if they do not win. If Morecambe draw, they will survive unless Barnet beat Chesterfield by a goal difference of +7 (7-0, 8-1, etc).
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Barnet won 3-0... but Morecambe drew, so Barnet go down.
Famine
Premier League
If West Brom do not beat Tottenham, West Brom will be relegated.
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West Brom beat Tottenham...
Famine
If Stoke City at noon beat Crystal Palace, West Brom will be relegated (due to Swansea playing both Stoke and Southampton in their last games)
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Stoke didn't win, so West Brom don't go down just yet...
Famine
If Stoke City lose, they will be relegated too.
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Stoke very much lost, and are relegated...


Now, I'm not saying Swansea are in a LOT of trouble here, but:

Bournemouth 1-0 Swansea
West Brom 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur
 
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jake2013guy
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Tuesday is going to be nerve wrecking.
 
Famine
Well, Swansea's goal difference is now the third worst, West Brom now only need two wins, Swansea have only three games left to get their draw and Southampton are one place and one point behind...
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West Brom now only need ONE win, Swansea have two games left and Southampton are one place ahead on equal points... and it's only thanks to a 96th minute Everton goal that Swansea are even still in a survivable position.
 
Famine
West Brom now only need ONE win, Swansea have two games left and Southampton are one place ahead on equal points... and it's only thanks to a 96th minute Everton goal that Swansea are even still in a survivable position.
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I think it's important to take note of Huddersfield. They're not safe and have got 3 games against top 6 teams.
 
jake2013guy
I think it's important to take note of Huddersfield. They're not safe and have got 3 games against top 6 teams.
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Famine
As things stand, for Southampton to overtake Huddersfield/Palace/West Ham, they need to score six more points in four games (plus goals in the case of Palace). If the three stick to approximate form, they'll score roughly four points each, so Southampton need to score ten - that's three wins and a draw.

Huddersfield do have a bit of a mince run-in, but they play Everton (who are rubbish) and Chelsea and Arsenal who may well be on the beach by then with no way to catch up to the team above or be caught by the team below. Manchester City will hurt them, but they'll have already met their 100 goal target so Pep may experiment with some younger players to give the first team some additional summer rest before the World Cup. Or he may want to go for the 100pt target. Four points is not impossible there. Palace's run in is easy. West Ham also play Manchester City, but before Huddersfield do, and may face the full force still. And they have Manchester United, who need to win to keep Liverpool at bay.

That leaves Southampton. They also play Manchester City, and if they lose to them, they can't score the 10pt they likely need to pass the other teams - but it's their last game of the season and City might be on the beach as above...

However, they can still catch Swansea City, and Swansea play Southampton on the second-last day of the season. Between now and that fixture, Southampton play Bournemouth and Everton, while Swansea play Bournemouth and Chelsea. Chelsea will still be needing the points to secure fifth and won't have given up hope of catching Spurs in fourth yet - and as the FA Cup final is two weeks later, may not rest players.


That may put Swansea in deep, Solent bobbar, saved only by the fact Southampton couldn't score in a whorehouse and Swansea's own last game of the season is Stoke...
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I don't think Huddersfield have anything to worry about right now - although not getting a result against Everton was a bit harmful. They can't be passed by Stoke or West Brom, leaving only Southampton and Swansea, who play each other next.

If Southampton wins it's better for Huddersfield as they have a pretty poor goal difference only rivalled by Swansea's, but either way two points from three games (one against the champions who will most certainly be on the beach by then) is Huddersfield safe. Southampton and Swansea need to out-result Huddersfield by two points and they only have two games to do it.
 
Cant see us beating Southampton on Tuesday, form has been terrible and we were all over the place against Bournemouth.

Relegation is on the cards. :indiff::indiff:
 
Worst thing about it is that we might get replaced in the PL by Cardiff!!
 
Championship
If Cardiff City win, they are promoted.
If Cardiff City draw and Fulham win, Fulham are promoted - otherwise Cardiff are promoted.
If Cardiff City lose and Fulham do not, Fulham are promoted.

Bolton Wanderers will be relegated unless they:
* Beat the results of both Burton and Barnsley, with a goal swing of +15 compared to Barnsley or
* Win with at least two other results from Barnsley draw or worse, Burton draw or worse, and Birmingham lose, with a goal swing of +4 compared to Birmingham (2-0, 0-2)
* Win with a goal swing of at least +14 (Reading) or +4 (Birmingham) with at least two other results from Barnsley draw or worse, Burton draw or worse, Birmingham lose, and Reading lose.

Burton Albion will be relegated unless they:
* Beat the results of both Barnsley and Bolton or
* Win with at least two other results from Barnsley draw or worse, Bolton draw or worse, Reading lose, and Birmingham lose happening or
* Win with a goal swing of at least +10 (Reading) or +20 (Birmingham) at least two other results from Barnsley draw or worse, Bolton draw or worse, Birmingham draw, and Reading draw.

If Barnsley lose, they will be relegated if Burton draw or better and Bolton win.
If Barnsley draw, they will be relegated if Burton and Bolton win.
If Barnsley win, they can only be relegated if Burton beat their result by 21 goals

If Birmingham win, they will not be relegated.
If Birmingham draw, they can only be relegated if Barnsley win and Burton win by a 10-goal margin.
If Birmingham lose, they would be relegated with any two results from Barnsley winning, Burton winning and Bolton winning with a +4 goal swing (2-0, 0-2)

If Reading win, they will not be relegated.
If Reading draw, they can only be relegated if Barnsley win and Burton win by a 21-goal margin and Birmingham win.
If Reading lose, they would be relegated with any three results from Barnsley winning, Burton winning, Bolton winning with a +10 goal swing and Birmingham drawing or better.
 
Famine
Championship
If Cardiff City win, they are promoted.
If Cardiff City draw and Fulham win, Fulham are promoted - otherwise Cardiff are promoted.
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And they did draw, and Fulham lost, and they are promoted (BOOOOOOOO).
Famine
Championship
Bolton Wanderers will be relegated unless they:
* Win with at least two other results from Barnsley draw or worse, Burton draw or worse, and Birmingham lose, with a goal swing of +4 compared to Birmingham (2-0, 0-2)
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And they did - Barnsley and Burton both lost... so they both go down... with 41pt.

Which is interesting as:
Famine
Amusingly, when Wednesday beat Leeds on March 17th, I said we were probably safe on just 41pt. When we beat Preston two weeks later after the break, I posted to say the same and that 44pt was us clear now.

Bottom of the Championship, with two games left looks like this:

19. Reading - P44, 43pt
20. Birmingham City - P44, 43pt
21. Bolton Wanderers - P44, 40pt
22. Barnsley - P43, 38pt
23. Burton Albion - P44, 38pt
24. Sunderland - P44, 34pt

*smug-face engaged*

I reckon 41 may still be enough to stay up, on goal difference
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A seven-week old prediction :lol:
 
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Unbelievable finish to those Championship games, Bolton were 1-2 down to Forest and going down with 8 minutes to got but then turned it around with 2 goals and won 3-2 to survive!
 
Huddersfield draw with Manchester City, putting them 3pt above both Southampton and Swansea.

Their cack goal difference mean it's not a true 3pt gap, but it make the Southampton/Swansea game even more of a can't-lose match.
 
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Huddersfield have the point, stay in and Swansea needs 9? goals against Stoke.
 
Fair play to Tranmere.

Down to 10 men after 48 seconds.
All 3 subs used in the first half.
Assistant manager sent off.

Still manage to win the game 2-1 and return to the League.
 

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