2018 FIFA World Cup Qualification
- Thread starter Famine
- 414 comments
- 18,917 views
- Status
- 28,496
- Bratvegas
- GTP_Liquid
For what it's worth, I checked the unofficial football world championship and the current champions are Peru, currently at an all-time high of 12th in the FIFA rankings.
If you don't know what it is, it's a linear championship starting from the very first Scotland vs England games where the champion's title is always on the line in a 'knockout' title format. Whoever beats the champion is the champion.
If you don't know what it is, it's a linear championship starting from the very first Scotland vs England games where the champion's title is always on the line in a 'knockout' title format. Whoever beats the champion is the champion.
- 84,351
- Rule 12
- GTP_Famine
I've checked into the figures and it seems that it's actually due to changes in weighting for a couple of older games where England scored a lot of ranking points* and Wales didn't.
Wales did have a good 2015, largely due to only playing one friendly. In 2017 it looks like Wales has played no friendlies and has scored an average of about 500pt (two draws with top 30 teams, win against a top 20 team, maximum/minimum score of 367.5 with a win over a nobody) - or 2000pt from four games, while England has played (and lost - 0pt) two friendlies, and scored about 2500pt in six games. I'm not going to work out exact scores, because I'm not looking up all the old rankings. I'm not that stupid.
*Ranking points are:
* Points from the match (3 win, 1 draw, 0 defeat) multiplied by
* Match importance (1 for friendly, 2.5 for WC/Confederations qualifier, 3 for Confederations finals, 4 for WC finals) multiplied by
* Confederation weighting (1 for two South American teams, 0.98 for two European teams) multiplied by
* Opponent ranking ([200-opponent ranking]/100, top ranking team is 2.00, anything 150th and less is 0.5) multiplied by
* 100 multiplied by
* Age of match (up to 1 year is 1, up to 2 years is 0.5, up to 3 years is 0.3, up to 4 years is 0.2, anything older is 0)
This is averaged across a year.
- 28,496
- Bratvegas
- GTP_Liquid
So Wales' average is 500 and England's average is 416. Huh, okay.
My very poor maths ability really holds me back when trying to understand the rankings formulae. Have you ever looked at the Elo rankings?
My very poor maths ability really holds me back when trying to understand the rankings formulae. Have you ever looked at the Elo rankings?
- 84,351
- Rule 12
- GTP_Famine
I think it's closer to 480 and 460 (for 2017), but without looking up every result and the rankings at the time, I couldn't say for sure.
In essence you can think of it like this:
A defeat = 0pt
A friendly draw with someone cack = 50pt
A friendly draw with someone ropey = 100pt
A qualifier draw with someone cack = 125pt
A friendly win over someone cack = 150pt
A finals draw with someone cack = 150pt
A friendly draw with someone decent = 180pt
A qualifier draw with someone ropey = 250pt
A friendly win over someone ropey = 300pt
A finals draw with someone ropey = 300pt
A qualifier win over someone cack = 375pt
A qualifier draw with someone decent = 450pt
A friendly win over someone decent = 525pt
A WC finals win over someone cack = 600pt
A qualifier win over someone ropey = 725pt
A WC finals win over someone ropey = 1,200pt
A qualifier win over someone decent = 1,325pt
A finals win over someone decent = 1,600pt
A WC finals win over someone decent = 2,100pt
You can see that for teams in the top 30, friendlies are stupid. If you get lucky and play against another top 30 side and win, you get 3/4 of the points you'd get in a UEFA zone qualifier against a team only just in the top 100. If you draw (which is likely), you get fewer points than a banker win over San Marino or Andorra in a qualifier.
My guesstimates are:
Wales 2017 results are two qualifier draws with middling teams (300pt, 300pt), a qualifier win over a fairly decent team (1000pt) and a qualifier win over a nobody (375pt). That's 1,975pt, and about 490pt/game.
England's 2017 results are two defeats (0pt), a qualifier draw with a fairly decent team (450pt), a qualifier win over a nobody (375pt), a qualifier win over a ropey side (725pt) and a qualifier win over a decent side (1300pt). That's 2,850pt and about 475pt/game
- 15,608
- wrexham
- jameskent86451
- Jamobomb86
Qualification is drawing to a close this week with the final group matches before the play-offs.
England's home game with Slovenia on Thursday will go ahead despite a Tube strike and Wales's biggest problem is Gareth Bale who is a big doubt for both key matches with Georgia and Ireland with a groin strain, Wales need to win both to have any chance of being one of the best second place teams.
England's home game with Slovenia on Thursday will go ahead despite a Tube strike and Wales's biggest problem is Gareth Bale who is a big doubt for both key matches with Georgia and Ireland with a groin strain, Wales need to win both to have any chance of being one of the best second place teams.
- 28,496
- Bratvegas
- GTP_Liquid
If you were to believe some quarters, Wales are now unable to fulfill their fixture obligations because they don't have a team.
No Gareth Bale? No problem. With Joe Pirlo, Dedley Ledley and Rambo in midfield I'm still upbeat about it all. I would very much like to see Ben Woodburn get a fair crack at 90 minutes against Georgia. Vokes is strong, HRK is quick. Lawrence. We're not short of options up top. The future of Welsh football has to be strength in depth.
Georgia away is not as easy as it looks but at least 4pts ought to be enough to see us over the line, assuming Bosnia come unstuck against already-qualified Belgium. The Ireland game on Monday is going to be very tense.
---
One thing which intrigued me about England's upcoming games were Gareth Southgate's choice words about squad selection.
The other day: "There are two or three players who don't deserve to be in the squad"
Today: "Managers don't pick the squad, the players do by the way they perform"
So which is it?
I'm quite intrigued for the Scotland vs Slovakia game in that group too. I went to the first game in Trnava and Scotland were absolutely woeful but since then they've improved a lot. It won't be an easy game for either side but I think Slovakia might just edge it. Shame I won't be able to watch it due to gaelic football training...
No Gareth Bale? No problem. With Joe Pirlo, Dedley Ledley and Rambo in midfield I'm still upbeat about it all. I would very much like to see Ben Woodburn get a fair crack at 90 minutes against Georgia. Vokes is strong, HRK is quick. Lawrence. We're not short of options up top. The future of Welsh football has to be strength in depth.
Georgia away is not as easy as it looks but at least 4pts ought to be enough to see us over the line, assuming Bosnia come unstuck against already-qualified Belgium. The Ireland game on Monday is going to be very tense.
---
One thing which intrigued me about England's upcoming games were Gareth Southgate's choice words about squad selection.
The other day: "There are two or three players who don't deserve to be in the squad"
Today: "Managers don't pick the squad, the players do by the way they perform"
So which is it?
I'm quite intrigued for the Scotland vs Slovakia game in that group too. I went to the first game in Trnava and Scotland were absolutely woeful but since then they've improved a lot. It won't be an easy game for either side but I think Slovakia might just edge it. Shame I won't be able to watch it due to gaelic football training...
- 28,383
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
It's a massive game for Scotland, but I'm not holding out too much hope.
Some friends are watching the game(s) in the pub tomorrow night, but I'm not attending out of respect for my great Aunt who passed away last week, as it is her funeral on Friday and I don't want to be hungover for that. That said, I will hopefully still catch the game.
- 814
- Londongrad
I don't mean to be melodramatic but considering all the tripe that has come before, this is the first time I actually passed out (briefly) watching an England game... without the aid of alcoholic beverages.
It's making my studies earlier today (depreciation and variances in accounting) seem thrilling in comparison.
It's making my studies earlier today (depreciation and variances in accounting) seem thrilling in comparison.
- 28,383
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
Very frustrating night for Scotland tonight - hit the bar, hit the post, 4 excellent saves by the Slovakian keeper - it could/should be at least 3-0, but as it stands we're going out.
- 36,517
- Scotland
- GTP_daan
- 84,351
- Rule 12
- GTP_Famine
Yes. Without hesitation.
So, aside from Germany qualifying last night and England rather tamely joining them, there were also CONMEBOL qualifiers.
Unbelievably, no-one seems to want to qualify from South America. Brazil did it ages ago and top the group by 10pt, but there were plenty of chances yesterday that no-one took. With ONE game left, one team has qualified, three are eliminated and the remaining six are separated by four points...
Uruguay could have qualified, but drew 0-0 with bottom team Venezuela. This guarantees them at least fifth, and the Intercontinental Playoff, because Colombia (4th) and Peru (5th) play each other in the last game - but anything other than a 5-0 defeat to eliminated Bolivia in the last game, coupled with a 5-0 win for Argentina and wins for Peru/Colombia, and Chile will see Uruguay home. Peru drew 0-0 with Argentina, which shockingly puts Argentina out of any of the qualification places in 6th. Colombia could have qualified but lost to Paraguay, who themselves can only qualify with a big win plus two from three of no better than a draw for Chile (vs. Brazil), a draw in Peru/Colombia and no better than a draw for Argentina (vs. Bolivia).
Also, I've changed the formatting in the opening posts, so the round/group games are all in spoiler tags. That means you don't have to scroll past a giant list of matches, but you can still see them if you want.
- 814
- Londongrad
So, taking into account Bosnia and Herzegovina's tally of 14 points as second place in group H that would mean (by my reckoning) a winner-takes-all between Wales and the Republic on Monday for the play-off spot at least (assuming Serbia beat Georgia). That should be a pretty tasty affair.
Also on the same day Iceland will be up against Kosovo on home soil, barring a volte-face they should qualify as group winners!
Also on the same day Iceland will be up against Kosovo on home soil, barring a volte-face they should qualify as group winners!
- 12,616
- United Kingdom
Groups C, E and F play their final games today. Germany and England have already qualified, so only one automatic qualifying spot will be decided tonight, with either Poland or Denmark taking it. Montenegro could get the second playoff place from Denmark, and Poland are guaranteed 2nd place at worst.
Group C is basically a case of Northern Ireland needing to thump Norway to avoid being the 9th best 2nd place team.
Group F is interesting, with Scotland, Slovakia and Slovenia all in with the possibility of making the playoffs, but all need to score a good result to avoid coming in that dreaded 9th place.
Group C is basically a case of Northern Ireland needing to thump Norway to avoid being the 9th best 2nd place team.
Group F is interesting, with Scotland, Slovakia and Slovenia all in with the possibility of making the playoffs, but all need to score a good result to avoid coming in that dreaded 9th place.
- Status
