Avian Flu

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Talentless
People also compare car accidents and lightning strikes to deaths by terrorist acts. Who knows why so many like to pit apples and oranges?
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I understand that this has a kill rate of 50% but it has all been in Southeast Asia. In western civilizations it is barely over 1% (1 out of ~93 cases). The kill rate of common flu is ~2% worldwide, but it also has more than 3% of cases happen in western civilizations. It still kills up to a million people a year. Just as you can't say common flu is more dangerous you also cannot say avian flu is more dangerous because you cannot give a proper worldwide deathrate without a worldwide spread.

My problem with the money being spent on this is that it is being devoted to trying to stop a variation that we do not know anything about yet. Even while talking about creating vaccines for the H5N1 virus they admit that it most likely won't help in the event of a pandemic spread. The only good thing to come out of all of thsi so far is that it is causing us to invest in quicker and cheaper ways to create vaccines.

No one can compare this to 1918 because putting technological advancement aside there are two major differences here. 1) In 1918 they had never even heard of the flu. It was completely new. 2) They had no clue it was coming. They thought everyone was dying from the cold. Today we have heard of it, typed it, named it, and are watching it. We know how this thing works and what it needs to do to become a pandemic. Every time we find any new disease we watch it closely in the event that it gets out of hand.
 
FoolKiller
I understand that this has a kill rate of 50% but it has all been in Southeast Asia. In western civilizations it is barely over 1% (1 out of ~93 cases). The kill rate of common flu is ~2% worldwide, but it also has more than 3% of cases happen in western civilizations. It still kills up to a million people a year. Just as you can't say common flu is more dangerous you also cannot say avian flu is more dangerous because you cannot give a proper worldwide deathrate without a worldwide spread.

My problem with the money being spent on this is that it is being devoted to trying to stop a variation that we do not know anything about yet. Even while talking about creating vaccines for the H5N1 virus they admit that it most likely won't help in the event of a pandemic spread. The only good thing to come out of all of thsi so far is that it is causing us to invest in quicker and cheaper ways to create vaccines.

No one can compare this to 1918 because putting technological advancement aside there are two major differences here. 1) In 1918 they had never even heard of the flu. It was completely new. 2) They had no clue it was coming. They thought everyone was dying from the cold. Today we have heard of it, typed it, named it, and are watching it. We know how this thing works and what it needs to do to become a pandemic. Every time we find any new disease we watch it closely in the event that it gets out of hand.
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When I speak of apples to oranges, I mean in more in the political sense. from my experience, most of those that compare the budgets for road safety improvement and counter terrorism intend for the latter to be reduced or capped at present rate. Also, while road accidents have a higher probability of killing someone, there are other components, such as the sociological impact of either, to consider. And the latter issue is inherently a case of intent to harm whereas the former is most often not, unless one can find a consistent pattern of malice in 30-60k, or more, accidents a year. I believe an inadequacy of protection from terrorism would enrage more people than an additional year of deaths via auto accidents. I can say I would be in that group.

To your two points about statistical death rates for one flu versus another, and of how we can't compare 1918 to if or whenever H5N1 becomes pandemic, I'm sure you're correct. However, that doesn't preclude airing on the side of caution, which in this case would be to take the most intelligent steps we can as early as possible. There's certainly a risk of waste, but lack of certainty isn't automatic cause to wait if there's some ability to lessen the impact of H5N1 if it becomes pandemic. As you said, it is improving our vaccine stores, and wouldn't an early earmarked budget be better than a debated one on the cusp of a pandemic?
 
Talentless
As you said, it is improving our vaccine stores, and wouldn't an early earmarked budget be better than a debated one on the cusp of a pandemic?
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But the money isn't being earmarked to make vaccines it is being spent on vaccines from current pre-mutation/pandemic strains. In other words, we are spending billions to make a vaccine for something that isn't what we are worried about. They are even admitting this but say that they hope it will lessen the severity.

If it worked like that then my flus shots from years past would mean that this years flu would only make me mildly ill. Then why do I need another flu shot every year? Because it changes and the current or past vaccines have little or no effect on the new form.

Yes, money to improve how vaccines are made so that they can be made quicker and cheaper is a great idea. However, that is where all the money should have gone. Spending money on vaccines now is like buying last year's flu shot.

Bush only came up with this plan because other countries did and he was being attacked in the media for being unprepared. I feel he wasted money to sound good. The American people like to hear about medicine or shots that will save them so that is where the government is spending money, even if it won't actually save them.

I believe the hype comes from the media needing a new big story to make us all stare at our TVs so they jumped on this, the same way they did with SARS. Whatever happened to mad cow disease and prions that will kill us all if we eat beef? We have a medical disease hype about once a year and this year it is Avian Flu.
 
Perhaps it's an error in my English, but I don't think I specifically said it was. The it was meant generally in reference to the overall early spending plan, or the concept thereof, to try to stave off a hypothetical pandemic, but, still, even so, I am curious, do you have a reference debunking the possible effectiveness of the vaccines and explaining their insignificance in terms of being beneficial, aside from the apparent illogic of their use which you've pointed out?

I still have to stay with my contention that some hyperbole is better than complacency, and, though you might have the facts in your favor, looking at it from what I think is a broader spectrum, any government not acting proactively to, yes, lessen the fears of the public, would be remiss in its duties.

Also, we know there exists a variety of sources and opinions on this matter, and only the phobic, irrational mind runs around in a mad panic over hypothetical problems. Such stupidity is difficult to ease. And the media could barely report anything if it worried about the unknown quantity of dimwits that overprepare and blame some random secret society for the problems the media reports on.
 
Talentless
Perhaps it's an error in my English, but I don't think I specifically said it was. The it was meant generally in reference to the overall early spending plan, or the concept thereof, to try to stave off a hypothetical pandemic,
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And I have no problem with this.
...but, still, even so, I am curious, do you have a reference debunking the possible effectiveness of the vaccines and explaining their insignificance in terms of being beneficial, aside from the apparent illogic of their use which you've pointed out?
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Will President Bush's own words be enough?
President Bush
One of the challenges presented by a pandemic is that scientists need a sample of the new strain before they can produce a vaccine against it. This means it is difficult to produce a pandemic vaccine before the pandemic actually appears. And so there may not be a vaccine capable of fully immunizing our citizens from the new influenza virus during the first several months of a pandemic.

To help protect our citizens during these early months, when a fully effective vaccine would not be available, we're taking a number of immediate steps.

Researchers here at the NIH have developed a vaccine based on the current strain of the avian flu virus. The vaccine is already in clinical trials.

And I'm asking that the Congress fund $1.2 billion for the Department of Health and Human Services to purchase enough doses of this vaccine for manufacturers to vaccinate 20 million people.

This vaccine would not be a perfect match to the pandemic flu because the pandemic strain would probably differ somewhat from the avian flu virus it grew from. But a vaccine against the current avian flu virus would likely offer some protection against a pandemic strain and possibly save many lives in the first critical months of an outbreak.
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This is the part I have a problem with. The rest of it appears to be fine. I am having troubles with money being spent on this specific disease when there are plenty of diseases just waiting to mutate into something that can cause a pandemic, including well known viruses such as the seasonal flu or common cold. One mutation allowing it the immune debillitating factor of HIV and we are all screwed. I can imagine a ton of doomsday scenarios that are much scarier than the Avian Flu. At the same time I don't go around telling everyone that this my scenario is the one to be afraid of, because I don't know. I cxan catch all kinds of deadly crap from animals without spreading it to other humans but we don't fear those. Why?

I want us to prepare for a pandemic in general, not a specific disease. When Avian Flu disappears and the pandemic ends up being something unexpected ten years down the road (hypothetically of course) there will be $1.2 billion wasted that could have gone towards general preparedness and helping stop the actual pandemic.
I still have to stay with my contention that some hyperbole is better than complacency, and, though you might have the facts in your favor, looking at it from what I think is a broader spectrum, any government not acting proactively to, yes, lessen the fears of the public, would be remiss in its duties.
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This could be done without aiming specifically at one disease. Everyone knows what Tamiflu and antiviral drugs are by now. By just saying they bought and stockpiled some of this (What's the shelf life?) would have succeded in easing most public fears.
Also, we know there exists a variety of sources and opinions on this matter, and only the phobic, irrational mind runs around in a mad panic over hypothetical problems. Such stupidity is difficult to ease. And the media could barely report anything if it worried about the unknown quantity of dimwits that overprepare and blame some random secret society for the problems the media reports on.
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Reporting that the CDC and WHO are watching this closely is journalism. Having hour long specials with the station's/network's resident doctor/medical reporter as the expert on the subject is sensationalized journalism. They did it with SARS and now they are doing it with Avian Flu.

This is a matter of journalistic integrity, or the lack of, by almost all news networks. Why do they turn some stories into giant specials while others of the same nature are completely ignored? For example; Hundreds of Americans disappear in other countries while on vacation yet when Natalee Holloway disappears in Aruba it is the main story of news for months, with some shows devoted solely to the story. Now there are Aruba boycotts. Why? Because some news channel picked up the story and made a big deal about it.

Hundreds of children go missing every day, but we get our one special one of the month. Hundreds (maybe thousands) of parents lost their children in the war and protest the war and President Bush now, but we only hear (or heard) all about Cindy Sheehan. What made her special other than a news special?

Why is this done? Working in media research I have one theory; make an everyday story a big story and then you have just filled in hours a day for the next month or more with a story that grabbed the audience's attention. Now you don't have to work as hard to get the ratings up.

This is also unofficially known as the "if it bleeds it leads" theory. Cindy Sheehan and Natalee Holloway have died down and now we have Avian Flu: The deadly pandemic.
 
Well, we really don't know the science but the urgency is there. New diseases are being discovered everyday but it's the fact that this disease is prominent in birds as of now. And transaction between birds isn't hard due to the fact that they travel in huge flocks and the fact that they travel intercontinentaly makes it more of concern because this disease can mutate to a human form.

Yes there are new diseases discovered that could kill us but the way the avian flu spreads is first by birds. Birds are everywhere and transaction of the disease is seamless. The problem scientists have now is when the disease evolves, many people will be infected and overwhelm the health care system of many countries.

We really can't compare the Avian flu as just another flu due to the fact that none of us are doing the physical science that would help us understand it more. I'd trust what's being testified by scientists on TV than what pessimists would say.
 
See, also, perhaps a potential disaster just like the Katrina, it's good to prepare for one rather than sitting and waiting. The potential disaster, however, should be backed up with hard evidence. Scientists and the proof provided would probably be the reason why our government is acting now, not based just on media hype.
 
s0nny80y
The problem scientists have now is when the disease evolves, many people will be infected and overwhelm the health care system of many countries.
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I am sure that you meant "if" here. There is no guarantee that it will mutate into a form that can be spread from human to human. You are also assuming that it will be airborne, not all flu viruses are. Every mutation can take on drastic or tiny changes. It could become trasmittable between humans but not be highly contagious.
We really can't compare the Avian flu as just another flu due to the fact that none of us are doing the physical science that would help us understand it more. I'd trust what's being testified by scientists on TV than what pessimists would say.
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What about the pessimist scientists? The fact is that the fear behind Avian Flu is that it has been fatal. We do not know how it will behave if it mutates. The CDC and the WHO release press releases saying that they are monitoring this disease in the event that thsi is happening. The press grabs the story and runs with it.
See, also, perhaps a potential disaster just like the Katrina, it's good to prepare for one rather than sitting and waiting. The potential disaster, however, should be backed up with hard evidence. Scientists and the proof provided would probably be the reason why our government is acting now, not based just on media hype.
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So a report saying that the US was unprepared coming out just a few weeks before President Bush announced his preparedness plan was a complete and total coincidence?

I agree with you that general preparedness is great but preparing specifically for one disease is like spending all the hurricane preparedness money on one city. You will be better prepared in the long run if you are generally prepared. That is why we created the immunization program in the first place. I don't agree we need to specifically prepare for Avian Flu with vaccines that are not going to prevent infection.

If I seem cynical it is because between Mad Cow, SARS, West Nile, Hong Kong flu, Monkeypox, and many other possible pandemics in my lifetime I have learned to not take these things serious until it hits my country. SARS was the one that topped it off because it was highly contagious, between humans, and extremely lethal. What happened to that?
 
You might be right, foolKiller, but I suspect that you could be making a false dichotomy by essentially saying that helping one necessarily reduces the capacity ot help another. Factually, yes, but that doesn't prove inability to sufficiently help the other. As for the effectiveness of vaccines not designed for avian flue, the excerpt from the President casts strong doubt, but lacks specificity as to what potential benefit it could have. Therefore, the benefit is not debunked.

As for the media's behavior, the public's role, its viewing and purchasing habits, is as important, if not more, and it's impractical to cover every story. Halloway, whether or not its still news worthy by itself, can be seen as representative of many similar cases. It's not fair coverage, it might even have underlying racism behind it, but covering it (and I stopped paying attention to most of it a while ago), possibly serves a social good.
 
I see both sides of this issue but then I see a movie like Outbreak (I think from the early 90's) and Virus' scare the hell out of me period. Well, ok maybe not the virus' so much but how it's spread. :scared:
 
Zardoz
Very definitive story here. Author's conclusion: Don't panic.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/006/349zwhbe.asp?pg=1
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This article beautifully sums up what I have been trying to say.

Oh, and the pneumonia vaccine he was talkiing about that would be the best step to prevent death, I got it something like three years ago. I'm all good.

VIPFREAK
I see both sides of this issue but then I see a movie like Outbreak (I think from the early 90's) and Virus' scare the hell out of me period. Well, ok maybe not the virus' so much but how it's spread.
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Outbreak - 1995. Another well dramatized scary science movie. I liked it.

Best defense against viruses is the same thing you have been taught since you were a kid. Be clean. I always wash my hands, keep hand sanitizer on my desk (and use it), and even have antiviral tissues (do they work?).
 
FoolKiller
Best defense against viruses is the same thing you have been taught since you were a kid. Be clean. I always wash my hands, keep hand sanitizer on my desk (and use it), and even have antiviral tissues (do they work?).
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No!

Use it or lose it. If your immune system isn't being tested, it loses its effectiveness. If you're permanently sanitised, the first cold bug to strike you will kill you. This is why it's possible for someone to contract chickenpox twice.
 
Famine
No!

Use it or lose it. If your immune system isn't being tested, it loses its effectiveness. If you're permanently sanitised, the first cold bug to strike you will kill you...
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That's why indigenous American Indians dropped like flies when first exposed to European diseases.
 
Famine
No!

Use it or lose it. If your immune system isn't being tested, it loses its effectiveness. If you're permanently sanitised, the first cold bug to strike you will kill you. This is why it's possible for someone to contract chickenpox twice.
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I'm not OCD about it. I leave that to my brother.

Trust me, due to medical conditions I have a weak enough immune system as it is. I get antibiotics before going to the dentist, I get sick from the flu shot, and my doctors send me to the emergency room for a fever. I am probably doing more to protect my coworkers than I am myself.

Besides, if you saw some of the people in my office you would use sanitizer as well. I don't do this at home or in public, just work. I've seen too many of them not wash their hands after using the bathroom.
 
FoolKiller
I'm not OCD about it. I leave that to my brother.

Trust me, due to medical conditions I have a weak enough immune system as it is. I get antibiotics before going to the dentist, I get sick from the flu shot, and my doctors send me to the emergency room for a fever. I am probably doing more to protect my coworkers than I am myself.

Besides, if you saw some of the people in my office you would use sanitizer as well. I don't do this at home or in public, just work. I've seen too many of them not wash their hands after using the bathroom.
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Now that's a different matter. Immunocompromised people SHOULD put themselves through an autoclave every 4 minutes, because if they're forced use their immune system they die. "Normal" people though should keep their T-memory cells on their toes as often as possible.


Let me guess... Multiple organ transplant?
 
Famine
Let me guess... Multiple organ transplant?
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Multiple congentital heart defects, most noticeably a transposition of the greater arteries with ventricular inversion. My doctors say it will probably lead to multiple organ transplants one day.

I have a few other non-heart related complications as well.

I avoid disease and push old ladies out of line for every vaccination that comes along. 👍
 
Ventricular inversion? I bet you have medical students crowding round your bed...
 
Famine
Ventricular inversion? I bet you have medical students crowding round your bed...
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Uh, does that mean the left and right ventricles are switched or that the vetnricles are on top of the other part(can't remember the part of the heart that holds the blood while the ventricle pumps it. :dunce: )
 
Famine
Ventricular inversion? I bet you have medical students crowding round your bed...
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There's always two or three that come in when I am at the cardiologist office. I keep trying to figure out if I can make money just letting people study me.

Oh, it was naturally corrected during formation, something the doctors had never seen before. The surgeon's exact words to my parents after my first surgery were, "I had no clue it would be that bad in there."

Another great quote, when I was 24 and asked about the possible effect on any children I may have was, "It is either a freak accident or a genetic mutation." My translation: I'm a freak or a mutant. Thanks, doc! 👍

Swift
Uh, does that mean the left and right ventricles are switched or that the vetnricles are on top of the other part(can't remember the part of the heart that holds the blood while the ventricle pumps it. )
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Left and right are switched.
 
FoolKiller
Left and right are switched.
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Thanks.

Oh, and with a name like foolkiller, you certainly are a freak or a mutant. :lol:
 
blargonator
why is sprite recommended if you have the flu?
anyways, i think it is being hyped up.
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I always just assumed it was the whole clear fluids thing. It always tastes better when you are sick, I think. Although, my doctor recommends ginger ale because ginger helps calm the stomach.
 
blargonator
why is sprite recommended if you have the flu?
anyways, i think it is being hyped up.
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That's an interesting question. Sprite (7up, or any other lemon-lime soda; let's not be brand specific :)) is always appealing to me when I'm sick. In my experiences, lemon-lime soda and very cold water are the easiest drinks to get down; milk and warm beverages are the hardest. Typically when I'm sick, the only symptom that really bothers and irritates me is the sore throat. The carbonation in the lemon-lime soda sort of numbs the throat as it goes down, so swallowing isn't a problem, and it's easy to drink. Cold water has the same effect. As far as replacing fluids with soda, that doesn't work. Soda is good at dehydrating, which is not desirable when ill. But in my case, once my throat is soothed a bit, I can slam down some water with no problem. Also, the sugar in soda is cheap calories for your immune system, which might help if you aren't eating as much during illness. Just a thought.

As far as avian flu? I think the media is feasting off of our fear once again. Why do they do this? Oh, right; people watch the news more if they think they're going to die :rolleyes: As someone mentioned, millions die each year from normal colds and flus, yet that gets almost no response from anyone. I heard a "statistic" that predicted 5-150 million deaths from avian flu. I'm sorry, but an estimate that covers over two orders of magnitude is completely useless. Let's try to relay meaningful information to the public, shall we?
 
kylehnat
As far as replacing fluids with soda, that doesn't work. Soda is good at dehydrating, which is not desirable when ill. But in my case, once my throat is soothed a bit, I can slam down some water with no problem. Also, the sugar in soda is cheap calories for your immune system, which might help if you aren't eating as much during illness. Just a thought.
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Sprite has no caffeine or sodium, the two major dehydrators in soda. 7-Up/Sierra Mist does have 3.4 mg of sodium, which could be why doctors actually specifically say Sprite.

Or it could be that a beverage without the caffeine or caramel coloring of regular sodas is less likely to upset your stomach, considering caffeine can be a major stomach irritant.

I try to stick with orange juice and water myself, but I will occasionally have a Sprite when the urge strikes me.

As far as avian flu? I think the media is feasting off of our fear once again. Why do they do this? Oh, right; people watch the news more if they think they're going to die
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The if it bleeds it leads mentality that most news agencies have. Unfortunatley most journalists start their careers with a different mindset about reporting the truth and covering what really matters. God forbid their views are different than their producer's. I am sure plenty of staff medical reporters have been told to just talk about worst case scenarios so that we can understand how bad this could be. I know I have heard the phrase, "Well, worst case scenario is..." but never had I heard, "This might be nothing," before the article posted above.
 
I know this is a grave dig, but hey, the thread exists.


Science | AAAS

www.science.org www.science.org

It's worth noting that, at the moment, the risk to humans is relatively low, however it was once thought that mammal-to-mammal transmission wasn't possible. Now it looks like it is, and given how bad the world bungled the COVID response, I have to imagine if H5N1 does make the jump to humans we are going to be sufficiently boned.
 
PLANDEMIC!

Their next stage because people stopped careing about covid so now they have to go back to an old idea to keep us brainwash'ed!!!
 
There Are No Words.gif


Trump voters as they realize this thread from the Bush Administration that they really wanted to get angry about doesn't say the word they thought it said in the title.
 

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