So Renault's the benchmark now, but if they leave, who would replace them as the benchmark? And if they leave, who would supply Red Bull? Cosworth?
Renault don't just supply Red Bull - they also support GP2 and the World Series by Renault. I think it would be very difficult or Renault to justify pulling out of Formula One without pulling out of the others, because neither GP2 nor the WSR offer much in the way of brand exposure the way Formula One does. And pulling out of two of the premier feeder series in December would be very, very bad, particularly since the entire grid of both series is dependent upon Renault. So if Renault
do withdraw, I think they'll stay on as engine suppliers.
Because BMW didn't sign the Concorde Agreement and Sauber had to wait to see if someone departed from Formula One to join, there has been the suggestion that FOTA has blocked the sale of the new teams so long as Sauber is off the grid. This is designed to stop the new teams selling their racing licence on to someone else and Sauber missing out on the grid; if they decide to go, they go entirely. They can't pass the baton on (Manor and Virgin is an exception because Virgin is believed to be buying into the team - they're not buying it outright) until such time as Sauber re-join the grid. It's possible this applies to
all teams. Now that Toyota have gone, it paves the way for Sauber to start up again. However, there are still legal issues revolving around the withdrawal because Toyota signed the Concorde Agreement (I expect the team were told to assume they would continue racing until informed otherwise), and Sauber won't be offered the grid position until that is cleared up. And that is why I think Renault are waiting until until December: they want to see what becomes of Sauber first. However, by the time December comes around, teams like Red Bull will be well into development of their chassis, and the engine is a major part of it. As Brawn showed, you can't just take one engine out and put another in. You have to redesign the chassis. Given the complexity of some of Adrian Newey's designs - particularly at the rear end - that's a tall order. So unless he's desinging two variants of the RB6, one for the Renault and one for a Coswroth, I can't see Renault backing out entirely. The team has become very strong, and they would give Renault maximum exposure in 2010. It's in Renault's interests to supply Red Bull, even if they back out.
If Renault go, I don't think they'll be gone entirely. They'll sell the team and stay on as engine suppliers, at leat for next season. Sorry it took me so long to get this this point, the part where I actually answer your question: even if Renault back out entirely, their engine will still be considered the benchmark. Engine equilisation takes time for th manufacturers; they need to reconfigure a lot. If Renault go in December, that will leave two months until the beginning of the season (not counting shakedown and testing). There won't be enough time to equilise the engines with another engine as the benchmark.
Figures they would go Cosworth. All four of the new teams are, and all the other manufacturers are fully booked on engines. Which just made me think of another question... would Cosworth supply Red Bull if Renault leaves?
