Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

[Omnis]

I am a nationalist sceptic, apparently.

 

[Touring Mars]

The UK currently has a pretty sweet deal when it comes to the way we interact with Europe insomuch as we pretty much have everything we want already i.e. we're part of the single market but not Schengen or the Euro, and we have a veto on who joins... plus the UK also has safeguards against ever closer union, involvement in Eurozone bailouts and protections for Sterling etc.

The UK may be the 5th largest economy in the world, but it is also important to remember that the UK economy is only 1/10th of that of the EU, which is the largest single trading bloc in the world. The EU, therefore, enjoys tremendous bargaining power that no EU state could obtain if they were to go it alone - esp. if they were out of the EU. Being a part of the EU is a net gain for the UK, even though a small minority would maybe benefit from some trade deals being slightly different to the way they are now. Even the much touted figure of £175 million a week (net) going from the UK to the EU is small beer in comparison to the potential impact on the UK economy if it were to leave the EU - putting economic growth at risk for several years could cost the nation massively more.

-

The EU as an entity and as a concept does have some major issues, not least the Euro itself. Despite being pro-European in my outlook, and supportive of the existence of the EU and the UK's membership of it, something has to give when it comes to the key concept of ever closer union. The Euro seemingly cannot work without taking further steps towards fiscal and political union, and this really does mean the end of sovereignty and even the concept of individual nation states. I agree with the Leave campaign on this front insomuch as this is most definitely not what the UK signed up to and I personally believe it never will - but the UK is hardly alone in that respect. While fiscal and even political union would possibly save the Euro, it comes at a hefty price and raises fundamental questions about representation and democracy that currently the EU has no answer for. In other words, I can't see the Euro (and by extension the economic growth of the Eurozone) surviving unless the people of Europe are prepared to abandon sovereignty en masse - and I don't think that will ever happen. The only feasible way forward I believe is to let struggling Eurozone countries exit the Euro and dispense with the idea of a European superstate in favour of a reformed EU that is principally a free travel and free trade zone, but where the sovereignty of individual nation states is maintained on fundamentally important issues such as taxation, healthcare, welfare etc - much as the UK's position is right now.

On the face of it, someone who thinks this would probably be tempted to vote Leave - and I reckon a lot of people who intend to vote Leave are rightly worried about the so-called democratic deficit, and the economic woes of the Eurozone - but the alternative is to remain inside the EU and to maintain influence over key decisions that will affect the UK whether or not we remain members of the EU. Leaving the EU would not free the UK from its close financial and economic ties to the Eurozone - but it would mean we were powerless to exert influence (and veto) over decisions that would continue to affect us anyway.

 

[Omnis]

There's really no need for the EU though. Just have free trade on your own.

 

[Liquid]

The only feasible way forward I believe is to let struggling Eurozone countries exit the Euro and dispense with the idea of a European superstate in favour of a reformed EU that is principally a free travel and free trade zone, but where the sovereignty of individual nation states is maintained on fundamentally important issues such as taxation, healthcare, welfare etc - much as the UK's position is right now.

This echoes what I feel. A political union is awful and won't work but a simple (or simpler?) trading community would be a boost to everyone and their neighbours.

Economic co-operation - Yes
Economic assimilation - No

But again, it's hard to get behind wanting this when the EU as it is is far too unaccountable at the top of its hierarchy. And by that I don't mean "Merkel dictating the show", which is seemingly parrotted by many people I know, I mean the decision makers in Brussel and Strasbourg, the Presidents of the European Council and the European Commission.

How would it be possible to depoliticise or delayer the European Union? It's a hard ask to tell these people to give up their power, regardless whether the population demand it or not.

Also, @TenEightyOne made an excellent point a few pages back about how, in the days before Britain was even a country, England and Scotland in particular always forged alliances, trade agreements and securities with their European neighbours. Even in that rose-tinted era of total sovereignty*, diplomacy was played out in a pan-European theatre. I don't know why people think this is something new and scary.

*Which was totally undemocratic with the theocratic monarchies but that's another point entirely

 

[Touring Mars]

There's really no need for the EU though. Just have free trade on your own.

But would the UK be able to negotiate better trade deals with the rest of the world than those it already has via the EU, and how long would it take - and what impact would a potentially long transition period have on the UK economy? It is also very unlikely that the UK would stand to gain from a new free trade agreement with its largest trading partner - the EU. The EU, like other large trading blocs, employs some protectionist measures from which the UK currently benefits. That's not to say that protectionist measures are good or right, but that's the way things currently are (and likely will remain) and hence it doesn't make much sense to leave the EU when doing so would put the UK at a significant disadvantage compared to where it currently is.

 

[Tired Tyres]

EU trade deal. Why not? We have a deficit running to 59 billion pounds. We are making THEM Rich. Lets say they impose a 6% tariff. What's to stop us imposing a 60% tariff on them? Neither side will get anywhere fast if they start messing about with tariffs. Free trade is the only way.

 

[Liquid]

What's to stop us imposing a 60% tariff on them?

Logic and common sense, one would hope.

 

[Scaff]

EU trade deal. Why not? We have a deficit running to 59 billion pounds. We are making THEM Rich. Lets say they impose a 6% tariff. What's to stop us imposing a 60% tariff on them? Neither side will get anywhere fast if they start messing about with tariffs. Free trade is the only way.

And they then impose a 60% tariff on us. Given the differences in scale between the UK and the EU who do you think is going to manage that for the longest?

Its certainly not the UK.

It makes no sense at any level for the EU to give a UK that has left a deal that is even equal to the one we have now (let alone more favorable), as it would effectively signal the start of the end for the entire entity and would require the total agreement of all the remaining members.

Not only is that simply not going to happen, but any deal with the 'new' will contain caveats and conditions that we would then have no say at all over at all and take a totally unknown period of time to negotiate (given that any deal will require the agreement of all the 'new' EU members, meaning any one of them can veto a deal for any reason).

It took Greenland six years to leave following its referendum in 1979 and they only had fishing right to negotiate, and as a country are still subject to various EU regulations and treaties. Any idea that this could be done in the initial two year period (which can be extended) is, in my opinion, pie in the sky.

Its also worth noting that we as a nation produce very few goods or services that are 100% reliant on being based in the UK, as such the exports we currently have are not a cast iron guarantee to remain. People and production can and do move, and if trade barrier from the UK reduce profitability then many companies will consider this as an option (and I know of a few in the Motor Industry who are already looking at these options). Most of UK economy (78% ) is service sector based and as such is both easy and cheap to move and relocate (as the company I work for is currently doing to its Finance and HR divisions, as a Global company these are being moved from the UK to Prague.

 

[Touring Mars]

What's to stop us imposing a 60% tariff on them?

Logic and common sense, one would hope.

And World Trade Organisation rules too... though sparking a trade war with our largest market instead of continuing to trade with zero tariffs and barriers sounds idiotic to me.

Incidentally, I just cast my postal vote

 

[Scaff]

And World Trade Organisation rules too... though sparking a trade war with our largest market instead of continuing to trade with zero tariffs and barriers sounds idiotic to me.

Incidentally, I just cast my postal vote

Right that's it we need a referendum on the WTO as well, telling us what to do.

Then kick the UN out of our business as well and finish it off by building a big wall around the country (idea copyright Mr D Trump) and get everyone else to pay for it.

 

[Touring Mars]

finish it off by building a big wall around the country

That idea might not go down too well with business owners in Scotland who may object to large structures spoiling the view from their coastal resorts...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-l...farm-near-his-scottish-golf-resort-1450275439

 

[Hun200kmh]

According to the news I read somewhere (but can't find now), nearly 50% of UK's exports go to EU countries, while EU countries exports to the UK represent less than 10% of their total exports.

Considering this, who will suffer more if a trade negotiations "war" follows Brexit? And who would blink first at the negotiating table?

I can't find EU numbers, but I just checked Germany's trade statistics (Germany being, after all, the main economy of the Eurozone)

Apparently their global exports make a total of 1 196 378 479 000 €

And their exports to the UK are worth 89 293 875 000 €

That's about 7,4%. It's an importante market, sure, but not even close to half their exports.

 

[Liquid]

According to the news I read somewhere (but can't find now), nearly 50% of UK's exports go to EU countries, while EU countries exports to the UK represent less than 10% of their total exports.

Considering this, who will suffer more if a trade negotiations "war" follows Brexit? And who would blink first at the negotiating table?

I can't find EU numbers, but I just checked Germany's trade statistics (Germany being, after all, the main economy of the Eurozone)

Apparently their global exports make a total of 1 196 378 479 000 €

And their exports to the UK are worth 89 293 875 000 €

That's about 7,4%. It's an importante market, sure, but not even close to half their exports.

You have to remember that you're doing it on a 1 country's exports to 27 countries and 27 countries' exports to 1 country basis. That is misleading and an easy way to misunderstand or misrepresent the situation.

You stated that Germany's exports to the UK are 7.4% of all their exports. If you did also did UK's exports to just Germany, it would be an equally 'low' figure and nowhere near the 50% mark of the UK's total EU exports. What percentage of Germany's exports go to all EU countries? I imagine that would also be a higher figure like the UK's 50%.

When it comes to reporting percentages, UK into EU or EU into UK is very misleading due to the true number of countries involved.

 

[Hun200kmh]

I understand that. The issue however is that what's at stake is in fact one country negotiating with a "27 countries counterpart".

 

[MatskiMonk]

To Germany from the UK: £2,653,970,764
From Germany into the UK: £5,388,193,989

edit: oops, clicked to soon.

Those are the figures for March this year, from this page https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/BuildYourOwnTables/Pages/Table.aspx

Seems to be the same case with the other largest trading partners in the EU, we get more from each of them, than we ship back to each of them.

 

[Saidur_Ali]

According to Sky's 'Eurometer', I am a 'Utilitarian' - more likely to vote to Remain than Leave. One disturbing note - the 'Most Read Newspaper' for utilitarians? The Daily Mail

Take the test here: https://eurometer.news.sky.com/

I got the same result too.

 

[mustafur]

To Germany from the UK: £2,653,970,764
From Germany into the UK: £5,388,193,989

edit: oops, clicked to soon.

Those are the figures for March this year, from this page https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/BuildYourOwnTables/Pages/Table.aspx

Seems to be the same case with the other largest trading partners in the EU, we get more from each of them, than we ship back to each of them.

Which is why thinking them adding a tariff is ludicrous, UK is one of the most crucial trade partners in the world.

If Germany adds a Tarrif they get more damaged then the UK, because there is still over 200 country's where UK can get it's product from.

 

[TRGTspecialist]

For those much more knowledgeable than me on the political processes of the EU could I ask what political influence the UK would lose in practice, if we did vote to leave? From the little I know (little knowledge is a dangerous thing etc) I'm sceptical that staying or leaving would actually change much in this regard.

We'd lose our voting block in the parliament of course (~10% of the total MEPs?), and our member state vote/veto (1/31). On the other hand I've (casually) noticed some key EU events in recent times where the UK has been somewhat absent. Cameron was almost alone in his opposition to Juncker's election as commission president. We are not at the table for eurozone meetings/negotiations despite eurozone states making up the majority of the EU and, the single market being the way it is, eurozone decisions affecting the UK to some extent (eg. last year's Greece debacle, where the UK was not part of most of the process but did have to make a contribution to the bailout, supposedly going against an EU opt-out agreement secured in 2010). And with Cameron's renegotiation - surely the best opportunity in recent times the UK has had to influence the direction of the EU - again my knoweledge is not great but I got the sense that he did not ask for much, came away with even less, and not all of it a cast iron guarantee. I can't say it filled me with a great deal of hope at least - and from what I've seen it's been conveniently absent from the referendum campaign too........

I'm open to the idea that my memory has just been cherry-picking unfavourable events though - I get most politics info from my brother who is a staunch eurosceptic Have there been any recent EU events where the UK has demonstrated political weight that we couldn't afford to lose?

One more thing - would the decision to leave itself carry a certain amount of influence? It certainly would be a very unprecedented event + process for the EU to go through - and it's not like the UK is the only country on the continent with its share of eurosceptics. If we chose to leave could that trigger further calls for change within the EU, or even encourage other states to consider leaving?

 

[Scaff]

Which is why thinking them adding a tariff is ludicrous, UK is one of the most crucial trade partners in the world.

If Germany adds a Tarrif they get more damaged then the UK, because there is still over 200 country's where UK can get it's product from.

And the exact same can be said for just about every product that Germany gets from the UK, nor given that 78% of what the UK supplies is serviced based the companies providing that service just move out of the UK.

I'm not sure my people still insist this will result in the UK negotiating with each EU country, that is simply not what will happen at all, the UK will have to negotiate with the EU as a whole. You are also forgetting that the EU is very likely to put tariffs in place as a purely punitive measure to ensure that other EU states do not follow the UK.

For those much more knowledgeable than me on the political processes of the EU could I ask what political influence the UK would lose in practice, if we did vote to leave? From the little I know (little knowledge is a dangerous thing etc) I'm sceptical that staying or leaving would actually change much in this regard.

We'd lose our voting block in the parliament of course (~10% of the total MEPs?), and our member state vote/veto (1/31). On the other hand I've (casually) noticed some key EU events in recent times where the UK has been somewhat absent. Cameron was almost alone in his opposition to Juncker's election as commission president. We are not at the table for eurozone meetings/negotiations despite eurozone states making up the majority of the EU and, the single market being the way it is, eurozone decisions affecting the UK to some extent (eg. last year's Greece debacle, where the UK was not part of most of the process but did have to make a contribution to the bailout, supposedly going against an EU opt-out agreement secured in 2010). And with Cameron's renegotiation - surely the best opportunity in recent times the UK has had to influence the direction of the EU - again my knoweledge is not great but I got the sense that he did not ask for much, came away with even less, and not all of it a cast iron guarantee. I can't say it filled me with a great deal of hope at least - and from what I've seen it's been conveniently absent from the referendum campaign too........

I'm open to the idea that my memory has just been cherry-picking unfavourable events though - I get most politics info from my brother who is a staunch eurosceptic Have there been any recent EU events where the UK has demonstrated political weight that we couldn't afford to lose?

One more thing - would the decision to leave itself carry a certain amount of influence? It certainly would be a very unprecedented event + process for the EU to go through - and it's not like the UK is the only country on the continent with its share of eurosceptics. If we chose to leave could that trigger further calls for change within the EU, or even encourage other states to consider leaving?

The current deal the UK has with the UK (and has been negotiated over decades) is pretty much unprecedented in the way it is structured and the advantages it gives us.

But as an example of one point you mentioned above you may want to have a read of this....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33556085

...as not everything you are being told is correct.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Which is why thinking them adding a tariff is ludicrous, UK is one of the most crucial trade partners in the world.

If Germany adds a Tarrif they get more damaged then the UK, because there is still over 200 country's where UK can get it's product from.

How many of them build BMW's, Audi's, Mercedes-Benz' etc.

 

[Scaff]

How many of them build BMW's, Audi's, Mercedes-Benz' etc.

And the German ones made here in the UK may not end up staying here in the UK, something that would have an effect on not just the industry I work in, but the town I live in.

http://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/14319955.BMW_fears__Brexit__vote_would_cost_UK_Mini_jobs/

As the article points out its not just about potential tariffs, but also the free movement of people, when you are working on products and services on a European level, you need to be able to move people and skills around freely and easily. The moment you remove that from a county (as Brexit would) then that country becomes a lot less attractive as a base for the production of goods and the provision of services on a European basis.

 

[mustafur]

I just don't see a logical scenario where the EU can afford to put a Tarrif on UK, the Largest EU economy Germany, would take a massive hit from this. No doubt if UK were to leave the EU the EUs existence would be under serious threat as well, to deny a trading partner that imports goods as much as UK with No Tarrifs would damage it further, just as much as forcing the Tarrifs on UK for leaving.

If UK was an Export dominated Economy compared to Import I would fully agree that the EU membership would be vital, but this is not the case when it comes to the UK.

How many of them build BMW's, Audi's, Mercedes-Benz' etc.

Doesn't matter, good luck thinking UK will buy them in the same numbers when other car makers stay the same price, Volkswagen as a brand would also be completely wiped out competitively wise as who will buy a VW that costs the same as what an Audi was before the Tarrif.


Coming from a 1st world Country that isn't part of a trade union but does it's own trade deals, I just don't see the evidence that my Countries trade policy is inferior to what you have in place, considering we don't Import anywhere near as much as UK does making us less attractive as a trading partner compared to UK and the fact we are in a isolated region of the planet.

 

[Scaff]

I just don't see a logical scenario where the EU can afford to put a Tarrif on UK, the Largest EU economy Germany, would take a massive hit from this. No doubt if UK were to leave the EU the EUs existence would be under serious threat as well, to deny a trading partner that imports goods as much as UK with No Tarrifs would damage it further, just as much as forcing the Tarrifs on UK for leaving.

If UK was an Export dominated Economy compared to Import I would fully agree that the EU membership would be vital, but this is not the case when it comes to the UK.

So you honestly expect the UK to get a better deal than it currently has with the rest of the EU on exit?

The current free trade agreements the UK has with countries outside the EU were all negotiated via the EU, as such when we leave they go. You are assuming that once the UK is outside it will automatically get those, a point that numerous countries and trade bodies (including the WTO only today) has said is not likely at all. So the UK will not have a wide range of options to go and buy other goods and services from 'third party' countries at tariff free rates.

Your argument is based on the assumption of world wide free trade remaining in place for the UK following an exit, yet these free trade agreements were EU negotiated ones and as soon as the UK leave the EU they are no longer valid for us. Its a massive leap to say that with a significantly reduced importing and exporting capacity (as a stand alone nation) we would get these exact same deals in place. as such the EU would be able to apply tariffs on the UK, as would every other nation and trade body on earth

Doesn't matter, good luck thinking UK will buy them in the same numbers when other car makers stay the same price, Volkswagen as a brand would also be completely wiped out competitively wise as who will buy a VW that costs the same as what an Audi was before the Tarrif.

No it wouldn't because Audi's would now be more expensive and everything is relative.

You are also making the mistake of assuming that other car manufacturers would be in countries that would automatically enter into free trade agreements with the UK (including a number that don't even have free trade agreements with the UK or EU at present) and also forgetting that the majority of cars sold in the UK are manufactured in the rest of the EU.

Basically you would be looking at a choice of a Civic, about two Nissan models and the Mini (the rest are the likes of Jags, Rolls Royce and Range Rover - the buyers of which would not be bothered in particular in regard to a price increase).

Coming from a 1st world Country that isn't part of a trade union but does it's own trade deals, I just don't see the evidence that my Countries trade policy is inferior to what you have in place, considering we don't Import anywhere near as much as UK does making us less attractive as a trading partner compared to UK and the fact we are in a isolated region of the planet.

But Australia doesn't currently have a free trade agreement with the EU and is subject to tariffs (in both directions), as such yes your current situation is inferior to the one the UK currently has with the rest of the EU.

That's without the impact that a removal of free movement and travel will have on business.

 

[mustafur]

Is UK allowed to negotiate Free trade deals atleast in principal before it exits the EU?

or is this forbidden by the EU?

Because I don't see How it wouldn't, and if the exit won the vote does that mean from that very moment they leave or is there a transition time?

 

[TenEightyOne]

Because I don't see How it wouldn't, and if the exit won the vote does that mean from that very moment they leave or is there a transition time?

It could take years to leave. By that time it's doubtful that the United Kingdom in its current form would exist.

 

[mustafur]

It could take years to leave. By that time it's doubtful that the United Kingdom in its current form would exist.

Which means it's impossible to say UK will lose out on trade deals, considering it has plenty of time to negotiate them, and given that the UK is a export dominated Trade economy you can't honestly it would be difficult to get the ones it has and if not more.

 

[Scaff]

Which means it's impossible to say UK will lose out on trade deals, considering it has plenty of time to negotiate them, and given that the UK is a export dominated Trade economy you can't honestly it would be difficult to get the ones it has and if not more.

It strictly speaking has two years to exit, it can be extending but would require the agreement of all EU members to do so. A period during which the degree of uncertainty would cause a significant degree of harm to the UK.

And once again you have not managed to explain how the UK would be able to get equal or better deal when it is going to be negotiating from a position of lower levels of import and export than when its negotiations were carried out by the EU.

Yes the UK is a sizable country from an import export position, but its tiny in comparison to the level the EU as a whole has and have negotiated. Its absurd to suggest that the UK has the same negotiating clout as the EU as a whole (and unsurprisingly every trade body and country asked about has said as much).

 

[TenEightyOne]

Which means it's impossible to say UK will lose out on trade deals, considering it has plenty of time to negotiate them, and given that the UK is a export dominated Trade economy you can't honestly it would be difficult to get the ones it has and if not more.

The options would be to trade like Norway, Switzerland and the other members of EFTA do; trade into EEAE without any democratic say in the decision-making process. That's unlikely to make up the 55% of our trade that only exists because we're part of the EU and it's unlikely to make as much raw money. The other option would be to trade alone with base conversion into our own currency. Under either option we'd still be WTO-governed in any treaties and, once again, the people of the UK wouldn't be electing any members to that decision-making body.

We export about 45% of our product to the EU but only import about 16% of its product. That puts us in a weaker position on every count; even weaker than the not-always-successful EFTA that you're holding up as a model. And, in the highly likely case of Scottish independence there'd be a big hole in the "UK" export books.

What would also stop is "trade in kind". For example, we don't have the money to build large medical centres for certain kinds of treatment based on the frequency of such requirements per-head-of-population... and nor do many other countries. The Health Trade deals that we have would stop, or would become paid. Currently it's normal for NHS patients to retrieve their treatment elsewhere in the Union while it's also normal for EU citizens to come here to take advantage of our own specialities. The post-UKExit reinvestment required by the NHS would cost more on its own than we would save, and that's over many many years.

Even the Leave campaign disagree with you; their line is that there will be trade disruption (some use the word "significant") that is, in their minds, worth fighting through to leave the EU.

EDIT: Partial tree by @Scaff

 

[Hun200kmh]

http://news.sky.com/story/1708390/billions-of-pounds-leave-uk-ahead-of-eu-vote

The title says 77bn £ in the last 6 months, but isn't it more serious that 65bn of those are just from the last 2 months statistically available (March/April) ? Or that March alone amounts to 59 bn £, as you'll find if you keep reading past the first few paragraphs???

What a strange way to make headlines and write articles ...

 

[Spurgy 777]

It strictly speaking has two years to exit, it can be extending but would require the agreement of all EU members to do so. A period during which the degree of uncertainty would cause a significant degree of harm to the UK.

And once again you have not managed to explain how the UK would be able to get equal or better deal when it is going to be negotiating from a position of lower levels of import and export than when its negotiations were carried out by the EU.

Yes the UK is a sizable country from an import export position, but its tiny in comparison to the level the EU as a whole has and have negotiated. Its absurd to suggest that the UK has the same negotiating clout as the EU as a whole (and unsurprisingly every trade body and country asked about has said as much).

How would you suggest they would make the deal worse? The benefits to us would be no free movement of people, which means we could have a more beneficial immigration policy, we would have the final say on UK laws and regulations which means we wouldn't have to accept laws that are damaging to our economy, and we wouldn't pay them £8-14bn per year. That's all based on the assumption that a future agreement wouldn't include the main reasons people wanted to leave the EU in the first place. So what would they do to balance out all of that short of not having a trade agreement at all which is in no ones interest?